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-   -   Iran (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/586655-iran.html)

harrogate 14th April 2024 11:21


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11635283)
My post said they operated over Jordan, so maybe they were requested by Jordan to help them. So appears to be separate from Israel.

But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

TURIN 14th April 2024 11:29


Originally Posted by harrogate (Post 11635303)
But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

Could it be considered good practice/exercise for RAF crew?

Ninthace 14th April 2024 11:37

Pedant on. Shooting down live munitions in flight is what they are for. What were they practising? Pedant off

Easy Street 14th April 2024 11:39


Originally Posted by harrogate (Post 11635303)
But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

Relevant (and probably secret) bits of information needed to answer this include the proportion of those 60 available for operations; the number of CAPs deemed necessary to guard* against Iranian weapons (noting that, as well as filling GBAD gaps, fighters might need to fill gaps in surveillance radar coverage due to low altitude and small size of targets); the number of tankers available to extend those CAPs; the distance of the CAPs from bases; and the number of fighters needing to be on ground alert to ensure enough AAMs can be brought up into the fight when it happens. Fighter fleets can very quickly be fully consumed with this kind of task, and with the exception of a few states, their size is usually determined more by financial considerations rather than by exhaustive threat analysis.

* Choosing not to enforce sovereignty of airspace would be a option, but not a politically attractive one for the Jordanians. It could be judged tantamount to complicity. In this regard, the effectiveness of any fighter screen matters less than its visibility, hence no doubt the UK statement that its aircraft were involved.

TURIN 14th April 2024 11:39


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11635312)
Pedant on. Shooting down live munitions in flight is what they are for. What were they practising? Pedant off

Experience on type then. 😁

m0nkfish 14th April 2024 12:03


Originally Posted by harrogate (Post 11635303)
But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

From multiple drone launches detected to drones in a position to be intercepted is not much time, it is possible that many countries did not have the ability to provide adequate air cover that quickly, whereas one might presume Typhoons are now in a QRA posture in Cyprus so available to respond in very short notice.

All assumptions of course, and I guess we just have to have some confidence in the people calling the shots within our own respective governments; and hope that they are acting with less assumptions and with a view to restoring peace as quickly as possible.

arf23 14th April 2024 12:28

Iran clearly doesn't yet have a nuclear bomb, but a very small dirty nuke cooked off inside Israel would certainly signal intent...

Buster Hyman 14th April 2024 12:35


Originally Posted by harrogate (Post 11635303)
But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

dead_pan 14th April 2024 12:44

Both sides declaring victory, minimal damage & casualties, no reason to escalate surely?

Easy Street 14th April 2024 12:56


Originally Posted by Buster Hyman (Post 11635346)
My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

I don't think it's that fine a balance for them to strike in this instance. The principle of sovereignty would allow them to down any Iranian weapons over their territory while maintaining a neutral stance. That's not a remotely contested concept in diplomacy and they'd be on very firm ground. Granting the UK diplomatic clearance and policy permissions to act in that way over its territory and (presumably) agreeing to the UK declaring its role publicly is tantamount to the same thing in any case. Iran could choose to make things difficult for the Jordanians by highlighting that, or by declaring that they'd sought permission for the weapons to overfly and been refused; they don't seem to have done that yet. The politics of the region are a constraint on Iran as well, of course.

NutLoose 14th April 2024 13:19


Originally Posted by Buster Hyman (Post 11635346)
My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

The worry the RAF must have is of collateral damage and loss of life due to shot down drones or missiles crashing in Jordan, it’s a fine line between success and failure.

Ninthace 14th April 2024 13:25

Given the consequences of not shooting them down and amount of desert below, I would think it was a no brainer.

pr00ne 14th April 2024 13:50


Originally Posted by Buster Hyman (Post 11635346)
My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

The RAF were operating over Syria and Iraq, intercepting drones/cruise missiles in that area from the border.

West Coast 14th April 2024 15:37


Originally Posted by arf23 (Post 11635341)
Iran clearly doesn't yet have a nuclear bomb, but a very small dirty nuke cooked off inside Israel would certainly signal intent...

Problem is, Israel does. You go nuke and the thought of a proportional response is out the window.

redsetter 14th April 2024 17:11


Originally Posted by Mil-26Man (Post 11635462)
I would support a Western liberal ally against an autocratic theocracy that openly and routinely calls for our death, every time

Israel is often referred to in the media as an ally of the UK. My definition of an ally would include shared military and political goals and also mutual military and political support. We clearly support Israel - politically in the UN and also on occasion militarily (see latest action). What I'm missing is how Israel supports the UK ? I'm not being sarcastic - a genuine question.

melmothtw 14th April 2024 18:38


Originally Posted by redsetter (Post 11635477)
Israel is often referred to in the media as an ally of the UK. My definition of an ally would include shared military and political goals and also mutual military and political support. We clearly support Israel - politically in the UN and also on occasion militarily (see latest action). What I'm missing is how Israel supports the UK ? I'm not being sarcastic - a genuine question.

Any flight tracker service will show you RAF aircraft on Op Shader transiting Israeli airspace on a regular basis, so there's one practical show of military support straight off the bat.

melmothtw 14th April 2024 20:06

Anyhow, best to sign off before I'm told to take it to JB.

Senior Pilot 14th April 2024 20:46


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11635578)
Anyhow, best to sign off before I'm told to take it to JB.

There is a thread on Jet Blast for non Mil posts about Israel and Palestine, this Mil Thread is not the place thankyouverymuch 👍

ORAC 14th April 2024 21:24

Senior U.S. defense officials have now revealed that the Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers, USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) were the two ships of the USN that were in the eastern Mediterranean and launched Standard Missile-3s (SM-3s) to down between 4 and 6 Iranian IRBMs last night over Israel.

ORAC 14th April 2024 21:32

Jordanian Report picked up in Israel — King Abdullah’s daughter Salma involved in downing five Iranian UAVs.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....42266734ae.png
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