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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11344074)
Messages I’m getting from Iran:
“Tehran on verge of collapse. Leaked: Basij leader there has admitted the possibility of Tehran's fall tonight is extremely high and that the Presidential palace may be attacked. (not as a mod nor admin) I ask any of you: if you've heard rumor or news about the Houthi efforts to force the ships of other nations into their ports, please raise them here. That sort of thing will get many nations interested in the security of their merchant shipping in the Red Sea, and will likely lead to increased Naval and other Military activity (aviation or otherwise). |
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“We have no track record of anyone successfully deterring the Houthis, so we don’t know how they’ll react to force,” said Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They want to be known as the biggest risk taker in the Axis of Resistance and the only one going toe-to-toe with the U.S.” Unlike Iraq and Syria, the U.S. military has no forces in Yemen. Experts also differ over whether the Houthis are largely acting on their own with Iranian-supplied weapons or are being directed to attack by Tehran. Some former commanders said, however, that there are legitimate military targets controlled by the Houthis in Yemen and the U.S. does not need to wait for the group to launch still more attacks on commercial shipping before taking military action. “You could take action against coastal radars, coastal gun systems, missile systems, those kinds of sites,” said Votel. “There are very clear military targets.” When Votel commanded CENTCOM, the U.S. struck radar sites in Yemen in 2016 in response to missile attacks, including toward the USS Mason, and the Pentagon cited the need to protect shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb as a reason for its actions. Taking military action could have its challenges. Some of the systems may be mobile or could be resupplied. But Votel said it could also have a practical and symbolic impact. “It can degrade their capability in the near term, and at the same time, send a very clear message,” he said. |
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-rebel-attacks
Shipping companies suspend Red Sea traffic after Yemen rebel attacks Two of the world’s largest shipping firms, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have said they are suspending passage through a Red Sea strait vital for global commerce, after Yemeni rebel attacks in the area… German transport company Hapag-Lloyd said it was halting Red Sea container ship traffic until Monday, after the Houthis attacked one of its vessels. “Hapag-Lloyd is interrupting all container ship traffic across the Red Sea until Monday,” the company said in a statement sent to AFP. The Danish firm Maersk made a similar announcement, a little earlier. “We have instructed all Maersk vessels in the area bound to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait to pause their journey until further notice,” it said. Maersk said this followed a “near-miss incident involving Maersk Gibraltar yesterday” as well as Friday’s attack, in which the rebels struck a Hapag-Lloyd cargo ship in the Red Sea. A US defence official identified it as the Liberia-flagged Al-Jasrah, a 368-metre (1,207-foot) container ship built in 2016. “We are aware that something launched from a Houthi-controlled region of Yemen struck this vessel which was damaged, and there was a report of a fire,” the official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity so that he could discuss intelligence matters. The US Central Command in the Middle East (Centcom) confirmed on X that “a UAV” l struck the Al-Jasrah causing a fire that was successfully extinguished. A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson told AFP: “There has been an attack on one of our ships”. “It was en route from the Greek port of Piraeus to Singapore. There were no casualties and the ship was travelling onward to its destination”, he added. Later in the day during a pro-Palestinian rally in the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, the rebels said they attacked two other ships in the area. “Container ships MSC Palatium and MSC Alanya were targeted by two naval missiles as they were heading toward the Israeli entity,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a broadcast on the rebels’ television channel. The rebels said that, in an earlier attack, the Maersk Gibraltar vessel was “targeted with a drone and the hit was direct”. According to a US official, the missile missed. Saree said the attack came after the ship’s crew “refused to respond to the calls of the Yemeni naval services”, and that it was intended as retaliation for the “oppression of the Palestinian people”. Centcom said that the MSC Alanya was only threatened but not struck, while the Palatium was hit by one of two ballistic missiles fired. In a statement posted 9 December on social media, the Houthis said they “will prevent the passage” of ships heading to Israel – regardless of ownership – if food and medicine are not allowed into besieged, Hamas-ruled Gaza…. |
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11555918)
The messaging as regards any strikes needs to be packaged as part of an international response to the threats to shipping. The information war is as important as the kinetic means.
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging. |
I suspect a drone launch would be a target of opportunity. One would have to lucky to catch one and the time to respond may well be less the flight time of the countermeasure. Do the associated logistics present a better opportunity?
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BP have announced they have temporarily suspended all shipments through the Red Sea and Suez canal until situation is resolved.
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Egypt is going to love the loss of revenue from the Suez Canal. Not.
Perhaps the Houthis think that Egypt can/should bring more pressure to bear. Iran seems to delight in causing nuisance at a distance, with layers of deniability, getting others to do their dirty work, "Not me mate!" |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 11558670)
Egypt is going to love the loss of revenue from the Suez Canal. Not.
Perhaps the Houthis think that Egypt can/should bring more pressure to bear. Iran seems to delight in causing nuisance at a distance, with layers of deniability, getting others to do their dirty work, "Not me mate!" As to Iran enjoying this: yes.
Originally Posted by Ninthace
(Post 11558656)
I suspect a drone launch would be a target of opportunity. One would have to lucky to catch one and the time to respond may well be less the flight time of the countermeasure. Do the associated logistics present a better opportunity?
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11558555)
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging.
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Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11558555)
Answers the question I had - how easy would it be to strike the Houthis?
I would assume many of those drone launchers are small and highly mobile - could be quite challenging. |
Pretty soon Iran could be sending them their latest export, spoofing equipment, recently being tested over Iraq.
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Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea
Dec. 18, 2023 | The recent escalation in reckless Houthi attacks originating from Yemen threatens the free flow of commerce, endangers innocent mariners, and violates international law. The Red Sea is a critical waterway that has been essential to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor that facilitates international trade. Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge posed by this non-state actor launching ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) at merchant vessels from many nations lawfully transiting international waters. This is an international challenge that demands collective action. Therefore, today I am announcing the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea. Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity. |
ORAC, the UN Security Council just met on this topic, and have resolved to do bloody **** all.
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You don't have to work within the UN
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This is a threat to international commerce that impacts most of the nations on our planet.
And the UN are as useless as tits on a bull. |
News reporting America preparing for air strikes on Houthi positions.
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Well, that was predictable, but what ever happened to OPSEC? :mad:
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11559832)
Well, that was predictable, but what ever happened to OPSEC? :mad:
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 11559976)
Maybe it's deliberate. Tell them you are coming to get them and they will do two things. Come out for a fight and loose or, run away so job done?
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