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I talked to a few sources in Israel and the frustration with the ceasefire is deep. They are incredibly unhappy there, whether in the army or the government: 1) An Israeli official described the announcement as a "complete surprise," claiming the White House provided a last-minute notification rather than engaging in a joint strategic rollout. 2) Just 24 hours prior, senior Israeli officials were publicly telling reporters they did not expect any ceasefire in the near future. They were blindsided. 3) I was told that there was an operation to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei, which Netanyahu was heavily invested in, which he had tried to convince Trump to wait for. 4) Security officials have leaked concerns that the 14-day pause provides a critical "breather" for Iran to hide or further bury its uranium stockpiles that were recently exposed by Israeli strikes. 5) Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are already threatening that they will collapse the government if the two-week pause transitions into a permanent arrangement without the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. 6) While Tel Aviv saw jubilant celebrations from hostage families, residents in the Upper Galilee view the pause as a security failure that leaves them under the threat of Hezbollah. In the north they are deeply concerned that they will never be safe again. 7) Some in the Mossad still believe that Israel was on the verge of toppling the Islamic Republic. Those reports were shown to the Trump administration which ignored them. 8) Israeli intelligence is certain that while strikes damaged the Natanz and Minzadehei facilities, the core material was not neutralized. All this to say, there is a sense of coitus interruptus in Israeli security circles. They had more targets they wanted to pursue and are now concerned that Trump will force them to stop in Lebanon. Having said that, the plan is now to escalate in Lebanon and Gaza in order to have some achievements. It is difficult for the security establishment to deal with the fact that Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRGC are all still in charge after all this time and all this effort and are blaming Netanyahu for this outcome. |
Originally Posted by galaxy flyer
(Post 12065740)
Going to Isfahan to dig out the enriched uranium would have required a much larger package. This ain’t it.
Ive read ideas of moving excavators, 250+ men, several days to exploit it. |
It seems the UAE was not consulted about the ceasefire.
BREAKING: It is now confirmed that the UAE Air Force has conducted a large-scale operation targeting Iran’s oil and petrochemical plants in the Persian Gulf region. They have bombed refineries on the islands of Siri and Lavan and targeted multiple other petrochemical facilities using not only Wing Loong 2 armed drones, but also Mirage 2000-9 EAD fighter jets. Operations are ongoing, with reports that Emirati aircraft have also flown over southern Iran. The aftermath of an Emirati airstrike on oil refineries on the islands of Siri and Lavan can be seen here. Not only oil storage tanks, but also major infrastructure at these refineries has been bombed by Emirati Mirage 2000-9EAD fighter jets. It appears the UAE’s operation to destroy Iran’s oil and petrochemical plants is still ongoing. Iranian state media (Mehr, IRIB, NIOC) reports explosions/fire at the Lavan oil refinery on Siri Island shortly after today's US-Iran ceasefire. Iran calls it a "cowardly enemy attack" and blames the UAE—launching missiles/drones at UAE & Kuwait targets in response. No claims from UAE/US/Israel; cause still unconfirmed. Firefighters on scene, no casualties reported yet. Developing fast. Yes, it's true. Iran's state broadcaster IRIB (iribnews_irib) just posted this on X: "After the attack on the Lavan refinery in Iran, missile and drone attacks were carried out on the UAE and Kuwait." This follows their earlier report of the Lavan refinery (on Siri Island) being hit despite a ceasefire. It aligns with recent verified reports from Al Jazeera, Gulf News, and others on Iran's ongoing drone/missile strikes targeting Gulf energy sites in Kuwait and the UAE. |
3) I was told that there was an operation to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei, which Netanyahu was heavily invested in, which he had tried to convince Trump to wait for. 7) Some in the Mossad still believe that Israel was on the verge of toppling the Islamic Republic. Those reports were shown to the Trump administration which ignored them. |
IRIB News:
BREAKING | After the attack on the Lavan refinery in Iran, missile and drone attacks were carried out on the UAE and Kuwait. |
Update on last Iranian attack wave before the "ceasefire" took effect. You can see why the UAE was unimpressed.
Iranian Armed Forces HQ: Iranian Armed Forces HQ: In the 100th wave of Iranian attacks, which was the last wave before the ceasefire, the following targets were attacked: (24 Targets) .
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Going where?
Video Israeli Channel 12 reports that U.S. Air Force KC-135 aerial tankers are departing the Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv. The airport has been serving as a major staging base for US aerial refueling ops throughout the war with Iran. |
Pentagon Brief 8 Apr 26 0800 EST
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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12066748)
Going where?
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Iran News:
BREAKING: Iranian military source: "No oil tanker or ship belonging to the enemies will pass through the Strait of Hormuz before 'Israel' commits to a ceasefire in Lebanon" |
Kuwaiti desalination plants hit. Around 90% of Kuwait's drinking water is provided by desalination.
Defense Ministry Spokesman, Colonel Saud Al-Otaibi: Several facilities affiliated with the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation were subjected to an intense and widespread series of Iranian criminal targeting and attacks over consecutive hours. - As announced in a statement to Al-Watan Channel, three power stations and water distillation plants were subjected to an attack using drones, resulting in significant material damage. |
MOD UAE:
The Ministry of Defense announces that the blatant Iranian attacks since the ceasefire took effect have reached 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones, and the air defenses have successfully dealt with them. |
Iran's First Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Ali Nikzad, stated today on state TV (via Fars News Agency) that if the U.S. does not fully accept Iran's 10 conditions for the agreement/ceasefire, the Supreme Leader will not permit it to be signed.
Iran TV, video in Arabic Iranian Parliament Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad: "If the US does not accept our conditions, we will not make a deal." |
I get confused with all that negotiations in a triangle. Who negotiates is not who makes the calls as it seems.
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Originally Posted by 51bravo
(Post 12066812)
I get confused with all that negotiations in a triangle. Who negotiates is not who makes the calls as it seems.
Then each sends their envoys with a list of what they are and are not prepared to accept. You try find a compromise between those conflicting objectives, leveraging your strengths as much as possible. Not always possible with such polar opposite ideals and expectations. |
I did see a report this morning, which I can't now find, that the UK government had denied the US the use of RAF Fairford for strikes on civilian targets (couldn't see any mention of DIego Garcia). This would have had a significant impact on the scope of the strikes the US could have launched last night, had Trump gone down that path.
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The Israelis seem to be trying to make hay while the sun shines, pounding Lebanon before the US tries to stop their plans.
They remain the weak link in any ceasefire, seemingly happy to test the Iranian resolve to a ceasefire. There must be a different definition to ceasefire in the modern handbook. |
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