​​​​​​​Additional Footage claimed to show the Impact of at least 4 Ballistic Missiles launched by the Iranian-Backed Groups towards the U.S. Consulate and International Airport within the City of Erbil in Northern Iraq.

Reference post #841 and the lost SEALs…

On 11 January 🇺🇸US Navy SEALs operating from USS Lewis B Puller executed a complex boarding of a dhow near the coast of Somalia in international waters supplying 🇮🇷Iranian-made weapons to the Houthis.

Items sized included propulsion, guidance and warhead components for medium-range ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles.

Iran missle/drone attacks Pakistan site
 

Pakistan condemns attack by Iran that kills 2 children | AP News

Iran attacks alleged militant bases in Pakistan; Islamabad says ‘unprovoked’ strikes kill 2 children

https://dims.apnews.com/dims4/defaul...bf4f1aef8b9430
This is a locator map for Pakistan with its capital, Islamabad, and the Kashmir region. (AP Photo)

BY JON GAMBRELL AND MUNIR AHMED | Updated 2:04 PM MST, January 16, 2024

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Iran launched attacks Tuesday in Pakistan targeting what it described as bases for the militant group Jaish al-Adl, potentially further raising tensions in a Middle East already roiled by Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Pakistan said the strikes killed two children and wounded three others in an assault it described as an “unprovoked violation” of its airspace.

Confusion followed the announcement from Iran as state media reports on it soon disappeared. However, the attack inside of nuclear-armed Pakistan by Iran threatens the relations between the two countries, which long have eyed each other with suspicion while maintaining diplomatic relations.

The attack also follows Iranian strikes on Iraq and Syria less than a day earlier, as Tehran lashes out following a dual suicide bombing this month claimed by the Sunni militant group Islamic State that killed over 90 people.

Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency and state television had said that missiles and drones were used in the strikes in Pakistan. Press TV, the English-language arm of Iranian state television, attributed the attack to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

Jaish al-Adl, or the “Army of Justice,” is a Sunni militant group founded in 2012 which largely operates across the border in Pakistan. The militants have claimed bombings and kidnapped Iranian border police in the past.

Iran has fought in border areas against the militants, but a missile-and-drone attack on Pakistan is unprecedented for Iran. Iranian reports described the strikes as happening in the mountains of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded rebuke of the strikes.

“Pakistan strongly condemns the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran which resulted in death of two innocent children while injuring three girls,” the statement read. “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences.”[/h2]

Iran just bombed Pakistan, a nuclear state. That’s the third country Iran has bombed in the past 24 hours.…

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bc97d14820.png

How do we know it wasn't provoked?
Pakistan isn't exactly a beacon of democracy and has been known to export/harbour some nasty things in the past.

According to U.S. defense officials, renewed strikes were carried out this morning targeting at least 4 Anti-Ship ASM batteries in western Yemen.

The strikes were in response to continuing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

According to Iranian sources, the 4 missiles launched by the IRGC towards ISIS Positions near the Aleppo in Syria last night, were their first use of the “Kheibar Shekan” IRBM.

The “Kheibar Shekan” is a 3rd generation solid fuel IRBM with a range of over 900 Miles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kheibar_Shekan

Because Iran isn't bitching about it?

What Iran is doing seems to me a lot like the Tomahawk strikes President Clinton ordered into Afghanistan back in about 1998 which targeted a known terrorist group, Al Qaeda, who had blown up two American Embassies in Africa: Kenya and Tanzania. (It blew some stuff and people up but sadly didn't get the leadership).

The big difference to me is that Iran is taking on a greater risk in so doing because, unlike Afghanistan then ...
1. Pakistan, for all of their faults, is an organized nation with a standing military complete with modern hardware.
2. Pakistan has nukes.
3. Pakistan has a border with Iran.

Speculation follows:
Pakistan's government may not give a hoot about certain parties being attacked by Iran's missiles, as Pakistan is running into their own problems with terrorist groups of late. With that considered, Pakistan's government must be seen to be outraged by Iran launching missiles into their territory and blowing stuff and people up.
Can't blame Pakistan for that.
(I'd love to be a party to whatever back channel conversation is going on at the moment between Iranian and Pakistani officials. I don't doubt that these are interesting conversations).

It's a nasty neighborhood. Israel and the US have the habit of striking targets in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Pakistan. Turkiye strikes targets in Syria and Iraq. Iran and the Houthis have joined the party.

The Afghans and the Iranians also have border/ terrorist issues - but then everyone has in that part of the world

IRGC general just got himself deaded on the Iran / Pakistan border

It's a tough business that he's in.
Coincidence or a payback? Would be interesting to find out.

Video of TV report.​​​​​​​Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry announces:

“Pakistan reserves the right to respond to the Iranian attacks.”

Theres new reports that Pakistan has struck BLF(Balouchastan liberation force) targets in iran

They are still only telegrams or a unknown twitters reporting

And confirmed

Sky reporting that Pakistan has:

• Withdrawn its ambassador in Teheran
• Expelled the Iranian ambassador
• conducted retaliatory strikes across the border in Iran.

The ball now being back in Iran”s court…..

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...on-2024-01-17/

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/paki...tehran-4879977

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/...nse-to-bombing

Meanwhile, the USA has conducted a series of Tomahawk missile attacks against 14 Houthi sites where missiles were identified as being prepared for launch.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68014127

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...ile-launchers/

The Pakistan business shows the dangers of Iran's scheme to use proxies - you can't always control them and the risk is that you get hit. And Pakistan are experts at stirring up trouble across borders as well - they kept the Taliban pot simmering for years - and they can easily do the same thing to the Iranians

Content amended for brevity and clarity.
The leadership within CENTCOM, as well as other Defense Officials have reportedly been urging the White House to allow them to go “gloves-off” in order to halt any further threat by the Houthi to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

According to officials, several options have been presented to President Biden which he has continually denied, these include:

• A larger-scale air campaign, involving the Air Force, over western Yemen to destroy any Houthi offensive capability,
• An amphibious operation against several ports, including Hodeidah, in western Yemen.
• Limited strikes on targets within Iran to “send a message” about further aid and support to the Houthis.

A private source confirms the killing of a senior Houthi leader whose name was not mentioned.

He was killed along with two Iranian leaders who were experts in the field of missiles, as a result of an American raid on a military base in Al-Bayda Governorate, the Shaab Al-Makhdara area at exactly ⁦‪8:30‬⁩ pm, Sanaa time.

​​​​​​​The raid was carried out via a drone targeting a missile launch pad that was ready to be launched.

Reports are that over 40 missiles were fired which overwhelmed the Patriot system with around 17 impacting the base.
At approximately 6:30 p.m. (Baghdad time) time Jan. 20, multiple ballistic missiles and rockets were launched by Iranian-backed militants in Western Iraq targeting al-Assad Airbase.

Most of the missiles were intercepted by the base’s air defense systems while others impacted on the base. Damage assessments are ongoing.

A number of U.S. personnel are undergoing evaluation for traumatic brain injuries. At least one Iraqi service member was wounded.

The Biden Administration has reportedly now Agreed with U.S. Defense Officials of the need for a Large-Scale Sustained Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen, following 10 Days of Missile and Airstrikes which have Failed to End the Houthi’s Attacks on Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; Officials have stated that they do not expect for the Operation to Drag-On for Years like previous Wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, but that they will not have a End Date set for the Operation.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/rFqa9DWv77

Another 10 year war with lots of casualties that ends up with the usual void of control in the area allowing yet more factions to rush in?

It’s already a void….

ORAC confirms that - "It’s already a void…."
 

For holidays, I would think that the whole area is now an "avoid".

So, apart from a lack of Suez revenue for Egypt, what is this all doing to vacations in UAE, Oman, Sharm El-Sheikh, and any other hot and sunny areas in that region? I imagine Israel and Jordan are already off the agenda, if not others - and transit flights through Qatar etc?? Cruise ships transiting the Suez? I doubt it!!

There surely must be a fairly major revenue reduction for many, but I have yet to see any comment from Egypt, Bahrein, UAE etc etc.

Similarly, the trade from India, China, Pakistan, Malaysia etc must have been adversely affected by the need now to transit around the Cape - but again, very little or no comment or support from them that I have seen.

It all seems to be left to the "Great Satan" with some superficial support - and some actual military support from the UK. If Trump follows up his criticism of European NATO nations for not spending enough on defence, and relying on the USA to defend their countries, then I could see that policy going a little further - if he gets in.

I am reminded of a TST.
I'd like to email each of them a dollar, so that they can buy a clue. :p

There seems to be consistent theme where all the troublemaker ME countries blame the “Great Satan” for everything. Maybe it is time for the US to leave the Red Sea and let the locals sort out their lake. It’s not like there are no alternatives to the Suez Canal. Yes going around the Cape adds time and money but the shipping companies have already adapted.

There is a particular Kingdom, and a few others like Egypt, who hold that their relationship with the US is beneficial, regardless of various factions within who may abjure the Great Satan.
It's not as simple as you tried to make it.

All of the ME countries that have most directly and severely been effected by the Houthi attacks on shipping have declined to take any role in protecting shipping. They all have universally severely criticized the US for supporting Israel. So I actually think it is that simple.

In any case the threat is now sophisticated Iran supplied anti ship missiles. USN ship self defence is pretty good but it is not perfect. The nightmare scenario is a direct hit with a hundred dead American sailors. A major regional conflict is then inevitable.

Then you need to do some re thinking.
No, it is not.
Oddly enough, the USS Cole suicide attack in Yemen didn't cause a major regional conflict.
While I personally find the scenario you describe as troubling (career USN man of course I do) it does not by itself result in a war.
See USS Stark as another example, or USS Samuel B Roberts.
I do agree that point defense cannot be assumed to be perfect.

Our politicians, going back to USS Pueblo at the very least, some of the recon flights over Russian and China in the 1950's that never came back, USS Liberty, or the Beirut Marine Barracks ... have been consistently willing to send our folks into harms way and then flounder about when some of them get shot at, attacked, or in Pubelo's case, boarded/captured.

I don't see that mentality in Washington changing any time soon either.
If a missile gets through that will suck, but it will not necessarily start a major regional war.

In relevant news: That isn't starting a regional war either.
(Comment on the lazy journo: "near Baghdad" is an odd descriptor. It's about a hundred miles to the west).

The first step in the Operational Planning Process is selecting the aim. Obviously the aim must be realistic and achievable. So what is the aim of Prosperity Guardian ? If it is make the Red Sea transits safe then I don’t see how fleet units soaking up Houthi missiles is going to achieve that aim. Going after the shooters as has already been shown, is an exercise in whack a mole so there is no chance of a decisive blow.

Iran is continuing to supply the Houthi’s with anti ship munitions, so the threat isn’t going away, therefore I am struggling to see how this operation directly furthers the national security interests of the USA.

Ultimately the US won’t fix the ME, the inhabitants have to. I see this as a way to use a strategic disengagement to start forcing the ME countries to start being part of the solution not just part of the problem.

I get how the above may sound naive, but after 50 years of robust American diplomatic, economic and military engagement, we seem to be in an even worse place, Maybe it is time for a different tack. The beauty of Naval disengagement is there are no boots on the ground, and re-engagement in force is always possible given the self contained and self sustaining nature of a Naval Task Group. In the meantime the Houthi’s don’t have the convent presence of the Great Satan to use to mobilize their base.

Go back to the 1980's. For how long was the reflagging of tankers in the Persian Gulf undertaken? Your short attention span is noted.
To be seen to be doing something is the sort of thing politicians do all of the time. A goodly number of my operational experiences were directly related to that. At the moment, this operation has moved from "presence" to active operations. Not sure how long that will last. (And your point on its limitations is not disagreed).
Nothing new under the sun, then. It just happens to be Tuesday.
But we are not. The ME is in a different place.
The Abraham accords are (or were) very close to being worked out. 50 years ago that was not the case. Then again, 50 years ago the Islamic Republic if Iran didn't exist.
Fifty years ago, Egypt and Israel were still negotiating the end of the 1973 war. The US (and Israel's) relationships with the largest nation (population wise) in the middle east, Egypt, are both substantially better. Israel has formal relations with Jordan. The state of play among the various entities on the Arabian peninsula have all undergone change. The US has major base in Qatar. That wasn't true 50 years ago either.
Nice general "we must do something" complaint.
Your suggestions for the actionable suggestions are doubtless welcome in Foggy Bottom.
Mail it to them. I am sure you can find the street address for the US Department of State easily enough.
Do not disagree, in principle.
Sadly, your forgot about the Information War.
Disengagement ~ at this point ~ gives the Houthis some kid of bragging rights. The Propaganda war NEVER ends, and you, sir, are a target, as am I.
You have been hit.
This takes us back to:
Must be seen to be doing something.
This will go on for a while longer.
EDIT: from red dog's post and link:
I remember operation Provide Comfort. It had an aim, and it was sort of fulfilled.
I remember Operation Sharp Guard. It had an aim, to stop the flow of arms into Former Yugoslavia, but was it successful?
Somewhat, from a limited maritime perspective.
I remember Operation Iraqi Freedom. It had a variety of aims, and one of them was achieved.
Saddam was replaced.
Some of the other aims? Not so much.
I remember Operation HOA. (Horn of Africa). (Or JTF HOA as we called it) As far as I know, it is still ongoing, two decades later.

That you believe there to be some simple "solution" is indeed naive. It's a mess, all seven days of the week.
As to a general conflagration, this, my friend, has me worried a bit more. Hezbollah and Iran have a very close relationship. Israeli/Hezbollah activities escalating is where (in my view) stuff gets a lot worse a lot faster.

​​​​EU foreign ministers also agreed on a military operation to ensure the safety of commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell:

​​​​​​​ “The European Union has reached an agreement to launch a joint military operation to ensure the security of commercial shipping in the Red Sea”

ORAC, I am not all up on EU politics, I saw this comment under the twitthing you linked to.
What's that all about?

​​​​​​​French frigate FS Alsace has transited the Suez Canal to join maritime security operations in the Red Sea and will likely replace FS Languedoc.

Alsace is an air-defence variant of the FREMM Frigate with double the number of VLS cells (32) compared to the 16 of the ASW-oriented Languedoc.

Lonewolf

Please explain to this dumb Canuck how the national security interests of the US, today , are demonstrably furthered by Op Prosperity Guardian.

Politics…

https://euobserver.com/world/157937

I don't do short attention span theater. You are free to tell Mr Biden that you disagree. I give less than a **** if you do. Like I said, mail your valid suggestions to Foggy Bottom. I am sure that your amateur input will be given top shelf consideration.

Note that the EU is now joining into the scrum.

Quote:

---

EU naval mission in Red Sea

---

See ORAC's posts a bit further up.

At the moment, the "must be seen to be doing something" bit is underway. (The 90's were filled with crap like that, in part because Bill Clinton could not tell Christiana Amanpour to shut the **** up and piss off).

In (x amount of time) that imperative, to be seen as doing something, will be overtaken by ... something else by the policy makers.

You have foolishly attempted to apply what we learned in staff college to actual politicians. (As regards a campaign plan, aims, and concrete objectives, all of which we in the armed services insist on being clearly spelled out. In Real Life it's never that clear. Politicians like wiggle room, no matter how much it makes our jobs difficult).(Lord, I am so glad I'm not in that business anymore, it's gotten worse, not better).

Politicians have never held themselves to that standard, no matter how much we military sorts wish that they would listen. I remind you, again, to answer the question of "How Many years did the Kuwait tanker reflagging bit go on?" Think in time frames of that order of magnitude, not "a month here and there".

You have fallen for the having a short attention span problem.

Don't feel bad, you are not alone.

I want to point out that I agree with your accurate critique that the whack a mole game doesn't end things quickly.
No ****, Sherlock. But what it does do, in the short term, is to sate the political demand that "something be done about this!"
But here's the rub: the Houthis are noise, not signal.

Been reading a bit about the latest rhetoric from Mr Netanyahu. In the past few days, he appears to be going all in on the "river to the sea" rhetoric.
He is drawing a line in the sand as to the West Bank and is talking about the utter rejection of a Two State solution.

That development, which everyone in the Mid East (heck anyone in the UN) is hearing is ~ I suspect ~ about to blow up in his face.
That particular position is a hell of a lot of a bigger risk for the region than the whack a mole game with the Houthis.
Nothing any of the US military services does can mitigate that.
A response has to be offered from The White House, and IMO, the answer needs to be something like "no, we don't support that."

If that response doesn't come, (Blinken has been making noises about the two state solution) the whole thing turns darker. Not good news, at all.

And Iran, who is the topic of this thread, will have more ammo for their next salvo in the Information War.