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Fair comment....
Iran just fired missiles at five countries simultaneously. Here is what actually happened to each of them. Bahrain. Confirmed hit on the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters. Bahrain’s own state news agency reported the strike. No casualty figures released yet. This is the command center for every American naval operation in the Persian Gulf. It was struck. UAE. Multiple missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from falling debris. The UAE defense ministry confirmed the intercepts. The Emirates just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory from a country it shares a maritime border with. Qatar. Missile intercepted. Zero damage. The Qatari Interior Ministry confirmed. The same country Iran just attacked is the country that hosted Al Udeid for twenty years as a gesture of regional balance. That balance ended this morning. Kuwait. KUNA state news agency confirmed missiles were “dealt with” in Kuwaiti airspace. No reported damage. Kuwait, which stayed neutral through every Gulf crisis since 1991, just had Iranian ballistic missiles flying over its cities. Jordan. Two Iranian ballistic missiles shot down by Jordanian military. Confirmed by the Jordanian armed forces directly. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles in June 2025 as well. That was in defense of Israel. This time Iran targeted Jordan itself. Saudi Arabia. Fars News claims strikes. No confirmation from any Saudi source. No Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification. Either it did not happen or Riyadh is not yet ready to say it did. Both possibilities carry enormous implications. Now understand what Iran just accomplished strategically. In attempting to retaliate against Israel and America, the IRGC fired missiles at six sovereign nations in a single morning. Not one of those nations attacked Iran. Bahrain did not bomb Tehran. The UAE did not launch strikes on Isfahan. Qatar hosted diplomatic back channels. Kuwait maintained neutrality for three decades. Jordan was mediating. Iran just converted every neutral and semi-neutral state in the Gulf into a potential co-belligerent. Every nation whose airspace was violated, whose civilians were killed, whose sovereignty was breached now has legal and political justification to join whatever coalition forms next. And the damage tells the real story. One civilian dead from debris. Intercepts across four countries. No confirmed destruction of any US military asset. No reported American casualties among 40,000 troops in theater. Iran fired at the entire Gulf and the Gulf caught almost everything. Compare this to what Israel did to Tehran this morning. Precision strikes on the IRGC Intelligence Directorate. Explosions near the Supreme Leader’s office. Three detonations in central Tehran confirmed by Iranian state media itself. One side hit what it aimed at. The other side hit one civilian with debris. This is the asymmetry that will define the next 72 hours. Iran demonstrated intent to strike everywhere and capability to hit almost nothing. The Gulf states demonstrated they can defend themselves. And now those states must decide whether the country that just fired ballistic missiles across their borders gets to do it again. They will not let it happen again. Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo. Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran. Four weeks ago Saudi Arabia told Iran it would never allow its airspace or territory to be used for attacks. The Crown Prince personally called the Iranian President to deliver that message. It was published by the Saudi Press Agency on January 28. Today the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement that erases every word of that call. The Kingdom “condemns and denounces in the strongest terms the treacherous Iranian aggression.” It calls the missile strikes a “flagrant violation of the sovereignty” of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan. It pledges “full solidarity” with every attacked nation. And then the line that changes everything: Saudi Arabia is “placing all its capabilities to support them in all measures they take.” All its capabilities. All measures. That is not diplomatic language. That is a blank check written in the middle of a war. Whatever the UAE decides to do, Saudi Arabia just said it will support. Whatever Bahrain’s response, Saudi will back it. Whatever Jordan, Qatar, or Kuwait determines is necessary, Riyadh just pledged everything it has. One month ago Saudi Arabia was Iran’s diplomatic shield in the Gulf. The kingdom that brokered the 2023 rapprochement with Tehran. The country that told Washington it would not participate. The monarchy that built its entire post-Vision 2030 foreign policy on balancing between Washington and Tehran without choosing. Iran forced the choice this morning by firing missiles at Riyadh. AFP correspondents confirmed explosions in the Saudi capital. The kingdom that spent three years rebuilding ties with Tehran just had Iranian ballistic missiles in its airspace. The country that told America it would stay neutral just watched its sovereignty violated by the same regime it was trying to protect from American strikes..... |
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Sources: Israeli interception of communication signals inside iran, including military landlines, major hospital cctv networks, and other compromised intelligence assets, indicate a high success rate in eliminating tier 1 officials across all verticals of the regime's structure. The window for command-and-control recovery is narrowing, my sources say, and expect the names to be a massive shock. |
That number all at once suggests that the USS Georgia launched a salvo.....
Video Footage of 21 Tomahawk cruise missiles headed towards Tehran this morning. |
4 videos:
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The UAE Announces the successful interception of a second wave of Iranian missiles The Ministry of Defense announced that the UAE's air defenses successfully intercepted a new wave of Iranian missiles launched toward the country, handling them with high efficiency and without any damage occurring. The Ministry of Defense affirmed that it is on high alert and fully prepared to address any threats, and that it is taking all necessary measures to firmly counter everything aimed at undermining the state's security and stability, emphasizing that the safety of citizens, residents, and visitors represents an utmost priority that cannot be compromised. The ministry stated that fragments of the intercepted missiles fell in scattered areas of Abu Dhabi, including Saadiyat Island, Khalifa City, Bani Yas area, Mohammed bin Zayed City, and Al Falah area, confirming no injuries in the mentioned locations. |
Latest.
Reports indicate Iranian-backed proxy forces are currently attacking U.S. bases in Iraq. The scale and extent of damage remain unverified. Reports are emerging from Iranian state media claiming IRGC hypersonic missiles have been launched toward the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. If true, this would mark a historic escalation — a direct strike attempt on a US supercarrier, one of the most heavily defended military assets on Earth. But as of now, there is no independent confirmation from US officials or international sources.... Not only ballistic missiles. The video shows Iranian Shahed-type long-range OWA-UAV striking the US-operated Naval Support Activity Bahrain. Apparently, the target was a radar system located on the territory of the facility. |
Video
Shahed-136 direct hit on a radome on the U.S. Base in Manama, Bahrain. Based on video of missile arrivals, footage of a sustained large fire, and corroborating VIIRS thermal satellite imagery, my analysis is that the primary target of the Iranian strike was Building 262 (CTF-55 / CDS-50 Headquarters) at Naval Support Activity Bahrain in Manama. The building is identifiable by multiple rooftop satellite radomes and a large adjacent geodesic radome, consistent with a primary NAVCENT CDC/C3/SATCOM node supporting U.S. Fifth Fleet operations across the CENTCOM area of responsibility. Under normal operating conditions, facilities of this type are staffed by command personnel, watch officers, intelligence teams, and communications specialists managing real-time naval operations. There is currently no confirmed reporting on personnel status. |
From the BBC:
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was just live on NBC News as the internet remains down for the majority in Iran. Araghchi says that Iran “may have lost one or two commanders”. He also says that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is “alive” as far as he is aware. Iranian outlets have so far denied that a number of Iranian officials and commanders have been killed, including the president and commander-in-chief of the Army. Araghchi says that Iran is keen on de-escalation and is open to negotiations, provided that the US and Israel cease their attacks. While saying that there are no communications "right now", Araghchi adds that “if the Americans want to talk to us, they know how they can contact me”. Iran and the US have been engaged in renewed nuclear talks, with the latest round happening two days ago.Araghchi also confirms that Iran is attacking American bases in the region, but describes it as an act of “self-defence”. |
Israel is saying their initial pinpoint strikes hit their intended targets and the Iran now has zero air defense which is allowing the US and Israel to bring down Iranian missiles as they are launched.
The Saudis have now said they are joining the US and Israeli attack after Iran sent missiles in their direction.It is a major and significant change I do believe. |
Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS
(Post 12044064)
He is also preparing the USA population to ‘be ready for American casualties.’
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Dubai hit
The Fairmont Jumeirah on the Palm was hit by a drone. That is nowhere near a military site and must have caused casualties.
The gloves are well and truly off now. BV |
The Fairmont hotel on the Dubai Palm is on fire. A very unlikely target and a very unlikely place for a stray missile to land. Thankfully, friends who live a few hundred yards away are fine and there are reports that people are moving below ground. Any Scots however are in the bars, running up a tab.
My hunch is that this is a car bomb. |
BF
Originally Posted by B Fraser
(Post 12044370)
The Fairmont hotel on the Dubai Palm is on fire. A very unlikely target and a very unlikely place for a stray missile to land. Thankfully, friends who live a few hundred yards away are fine and there are reports that people are moving below ground. Any Scots however are in the bars, running up a tab.
My hunch is that this is a car bomb. |
Dubai chums are messaging that it was a drone. A most unexpected target unless someone in particular was staying there.
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I suspect there may be B52s (or B2s) on their way to to Iran as we speak.
An ACARS message was sent to a C5 routing Aviano AB - Moron AB asking for an update as 'uppers were geting antsy' suggesting it may be a mission critical flight. A number of KC135 and KC46 are around Gibraltar not showing on ADS-B websites. |
Originally Posted by BBadanov
(Post 12043976)
What this does indicate is a larger deployed US force than 2003 GW2.
Originally Posted by NumptyAussie
(Post 12044061)
Interesting how quickly Iran can implement a nuclear weapons program, considering that the USA obliterated it last year and are busy obliterating it today.
Originally Posted by Ninthace
(Post 12044079)
An attack contrary to international war, not that it will bother the Trump regime) with objectives that cannot be achieved by air power alone. Another ill thought through mess.
The surprise to me is Iran's decision to attack a host of Gulf nations. The attack on 5th fleet HQ is not a surprise. Command and Control centers are logical targets. The reports that the Saudis are now in play, and not staying neutral, is an eye opener. Four days, eh? I'll guess that's about when the ammo runs short. I suppose that the discussion, talks, and negotiations on the nuclear posture are postponed for a while. |
On the one hand such a broad attack by Iran against all of those Arab nations seems insane.
On the other hand, infiltration of Iran by foreign agents to plan and execute those attacks is within the capabilities of certain nearby nations. Which possibility makes more sense? |
Mech, insane for sure, possibly a chapter in the old story of who are the real Muslims?
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1. Has regime change ever been achieved from the air alone?
2. Is there an organised pro- American opposition in Iran ready to take the place of the current regime. If either of the answers to these questions is no, it seems likely a lot of people will die needlessly and there will be far reaching effects on international trade for no definable benefit. Alternatively, Trump could just get bored, claim a victory and call it all off at some point with little to show for it apart from the butcher’s bill. |
Seems to be really kicking off now with Iranians being told to evacuate major industrial sites.
USA knows how to do a Saturday night. |
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