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-   -   Venezuela poised to invade Guyana (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/656091-venezuela-poised-invade-guyana.html)

SASless 6th Dec 2023 21:12

Well that confirms it if the Guardian has spoken.




MechEngr 6th Dec 2023 21:19

Guyana needs to hold a referendum of its own, annexing Venezuela.

Lonewolf_50 6th Dec 2023 23:21


Originally Posted by MechEngr (Post 11552530)
Guyana needs to hold a referendum of its own, annexing Venezuela.

While that got a laugh out of me, :} not sure they will be able to organize a referendum on short notice.

fdr 6th Dec 2023 23:35


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11550877)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...gnty-essequibo

Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana

Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.

Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters…..

Venezuelan voters were asked whether they support establishing a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, granting citizenship to current and future residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ top court in settling the disagreement between the South American countries.

“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after the results were announced, before highlighting the “very important level of participation of the people” in the referendum.

Throughout Sunday, long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centres in Caracas. Reuters witnesses visited voting centres across the country – many had few or no people waiting in line. In Maracaibo, in the oil-rich state of Zulia, poll workers told Reuters that turnout was low.

Still, before the 12-hour voting window was scheduled to end, the country’s top electoral authority official, Elvis Amoroso, announced polls would remain open for two additional hours because of what he described as “massive participation”.

Participation of more than 10.5 million voters means that more people voted in the referendum than did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in 2012….

Although the practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear, in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, ICJ president Joan E Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggested it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute”.

“Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said….

surprised it wasn't 50 million voting yes out of 20 million voters.

Maguro seems to have messed up his math.

P.S.: I can't see.Brazil, UK, USA or the UN sitting back and letting Maduro do a land grab that impacts both sovereignty that is established by recognised treaty, and that includes hydrocarbons.

Assume that as a dicktater, Maduro sees this as a popularity win, trading his troops lives for jungle and a fleeting hope to have more of the orinoco flow.

tdracer 7th Dec 2023 00:18


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11552576)
surprised it wasn't 50 million voting yes out of 20 million voters.

Maguro seems to have messed up his math.

P.S.: I can't see.Brazil, UK, USA or the UN sitting back and letting Maduro do a land grab that impacts both sovereignty that is established by recognised treaty, and that includes hydrocarbons.

Assume that as a dicktater, Maduro sees this as a popularity win, trading his troops lives for jungle and a fleeting hope to have more of the orinoco flow.

The strange thing to me is, since when has a "popular" vote of people in one country been recognized as justification for the invasion and forced takeover/annexation of another sovereign country? Heck, Hitler didn't even bother asking the people if they wanted to invade Poland (or Russia, France, et.al.). He just did it, then claimed it was for the good of the people.

Lonewolf_50 7th Dec 2023 01:52

Posturing is a thing.

Lyneham Lad 7th Dec 2023 11:35

Venezuela to pass law to annex territory in Guyana
 
In The Times today.


President Maduro of Venezuela has said his government will soon pass a law to formally incorporate a territory in neighbouring Guyana. He has also appointed an army general to oversee the annexed region.

The move follows a referendum in Venezuela on Sunday, in which Maduro’s government sought support for a historic claim, going back almost two centuries, over part of Guyana known as the Essequibo. The vote received overwhelming support, although there have been widespread allegations that the official figure of a high turnout was wildly exaggerated.

The International Court of Justice had ruled that Venezuela should refrain from taking any action to change the status quo in the region.

In a television address, Maduro said the region was “de facto occupied by the British Empire and its heirs”. He insisted he wanted a “peaceful rescue of the region”. State media has released a new map of Venezuela, moving its frontier with Guyana as much as 165 miles to the east.

Guyana is calling for international support following the statements, which its president, Irfaan Ali, said represented “a direct threat to the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Guyana”. He said he plans to take the matter to the United Nations security council.

“The Guyana Defence Force is on full alert and has engaged its military counterparts, including the US Southern Command. By defying the [International Court of Justice], Venezuela has rejected international law, the rule of law generally, fundamental justice and morality, and the preservation of international peace and security. They have literally declared themselves an outlaw nation,” he said.

Maduro also announced the creation of a military division to serve the territory, which will be initially based in the Venezuela town of Tumeremo, about 45 miles from the border with Guyana.

He has told the Venezuelan state oil company to immediately begin granting operating licences for the exploitation of crude oil, gas and mines in the neighbouring region.

Guyana and Venezuela have agreed to keep communication channels open over the territorial dispute.
Analysts have said Maduro’s statements remain in the realm of bravado, or even fantasy, as the unpopular leader who has overseen the world’s steepest recession over the past decade, attempts to shore up what little remains of his popular support. “Reality check: Maduro still needs a visa to visit Essequibo,” tweeted Phil Gunson, a consultant from the think tank Crisis Group.


In 2015, the US oil giant ExxonMobil made a series of massive oil discoveries off the coast of Guyana, in an area which Venezuela says is the maritime extension of its sovereign territory. Production of the oil, which began in 2019, is set to transform the former British colony. Last year its economy expanded by 63 per cent, making it the fastest growing in the world. Guyana’s population is just 800,000.

“We will not allow our territory to be violated, nor for the development of our country to be hindered by this desperate threat,” said Ali.

The Brazilian army said it was reinforcing its presence in the northern cities of Pacaraima and Boa Vista as part of efforts “to guarantee the inviolability of the territory”.

The United States was keeping an eye on mounting tensions, the White House said. John Kirby, National Security Council spokesman, said: “We obviously don’t want to see any violence occur here or conflict occur.”

The boundary dispute has its roots in the early 19th century, when the newly independent Venezuela protested that its neighbouring colony, British Guyana, had encroached on its land by drawing a frontier far to the west of the Essequibo river.

In 1899 an international arbitration committee, made up of five judges — two from Britain, two from the United States and one from Russia — agreed on a new boundary, which was close to the one claimed by the British. The Venezuelan side initially accepted the decision but later suggested that the British had bribed the Russian judge.

ORAC 7th Dec 2023 12:39

Guyana going to the UN Security Council and reaching out to the Commonwealth and allies for assistance, in particular the USA, Brazil, France and the UK….


Chugalug2 7th Dec 2023 13:13


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11551301)
There was a time when "the special relationship" was such that ease of communication was a thing.
I'd need to check my old notes, but I recall that the special relationship was an asset.

It would seem that "the special relationship" at the time (the US invasion of Grenada) reflected its usual form as seen from this side of the pond, LW50 :-


A recorded conversation between an apologetic Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher over the invasion of Grenada has been published for the first time.

"We regret very much the embarrassment that's been caused to you," the US leader said during the call.

Baroness Thatcher was angered that she was not consulted before the Americans invaded a Commonwealth state.

United States troops were sent to Grenada in 1983 to topple the Caribbean island's Marxist regime.

While US forces were still in action, the president phoned Lady Thatcher to explain the action he had taken.

"If I were there, Margaret," he said, "I'd throw my hat in the door before I came in."

The saying refers to a Civil War-era practice in which a visitor might throw his hat into a room before entering - if he was unwelcome, it might be thrown out again or even shot at.

"There's no need for that," Lady Thatcher replied.
Reagan's apology to Thatcher over Grenada revealed - BBC News

Sorry about the delay in replying to your post #67. Events, dear boy, events!

fdr 7th Dec 2023 14:39


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11552569)
While that got a laugh out of me, :} not sure they will be able to organize a referendum on short notice.


Guyana's referendum came in with 2.5 billion votes for annexing Caracas, and turning Mr Madero into head WC janitor at Angel falls. That is an overwhelming vote considering the population is 800,000 and only 350,000 have the vote..

WhatsaLizad? 8th Dec 2023 00:53


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11553013)
Guyana's referendum came in with 2.5 billion votes for annexing Caracas, and turning Mr Madero into head WC janitor at Angel falls. That is an overwhelming vote considering the population is 800,000 and only 350,000 have the vote..

Capuchin monkeys voted, notorious ballot box stuffers if properly bribed with treats.

ORAC 8th Dec 2023 05:20

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ritain-support

US to conduct flights within Guyana amid Venezuela territorial dispute

The United States has said it would conduct flight operations within Guyana that build on its routine engagement, as Britain and Brazil expressed concerns about growing border tensions between Guyana and Venezuela…

Brazil’s army intelligence has detected a buildup of Venezuelan armed forces near the Guyana border, according to a senior military source.

The US Southern Command, which provides security cooperation in Latin America, will conduct flight operations with the Guyanese military within Guyana on Thursday, the US embassy in Georgetown said in a statement.

“This exercise builds upon routine engagement and operations to enhance [the] security partnership between the United States and Guyana, and to strengthen regional cooperation,” it said.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, spoke with Ali late on Wednesday and reaffirmed the unwavering US support for Guyana’s sovereignty, the state department has said.

Analysts and sources in Caracas have said the referendum was an effort by Maduro to show strength and gauge his government’s support ahead of the 2024 election, rather than representing a real likelihood of military action.

Maduro’s government on Wednesday arrested opposition figure Roberto Abdul for alleged treason connected to the referendum and said warrants were also out for three staff members at the campaign of opposition presidential nominee María Corina Machado.

A lawyer for Machado’s party has said the staff always acted correctly.

A US state department spokesperson said it was aware of the arrest orders and “closely monitoring the situation”.

Archimedes 8th Dec 2023 13:19

This has a slight hint of this about it...


Lonewolf_50 8th Dec 2023 13:28


Originally Posted by Chugalug2 (Post 11552950)
It would seem that "the special relationship" at the time (the US invasion of Grenada) reflected its usual form as seen from this side of the pond, LW50 :-

Reagan's apology to Thatcher over Grenada revealed - BBC News

I will guess that RR was pretty secure that he'd not get too much push back from MT given the US support to UK over the Falklands the previous year. ;) I also suspect that (1) he figured that it's simpler to ask forgiveness after than to ask permission before and (2) the OPSEC considerations for a 'rapid forming of a JTF and implementation of an OP Plan' favored the latter.
FWIW: Operation Urgent Fury was for many years used as a case study for how JTF's come into being and some of the highs and lows of how that process works, as was the later Operation Just Cause in Panama. I was in the fleet as an operational sort, not a staff sort, in both cases but it wasn't my detachment that ended up in either of those ops.

Originally Posted by WhatsaLizad? (Post 11553302)
Capuchin monkeys voted, notorious ballot box stuffers if properly bribed with treats.

As can various citizens ... I'll stop there. :p

On a related note, analysis here on where US policy in the Western Hemisphere needs to adapt.

SASless 8th Dec 2023 22:48

More than just flight operations....seems a whole kit bag of training, equipment, and other assets getting involved.

Assuming the information being released is accurate anyway.

A For What It Worth....the skies around my place have been buzzing of late....with sounds of live fire training going on along with increased air operations.

There is a large USMC presence in my neck of the woods.

The tempo seems normal for end of work ups when a MEU deploys.

https://www.breitbart.com/latin-amer...tens-invasion/

Lonewolf_50 20th Dec 2023 19:10

i wonder if the saber rattling was in aid of this, or if it was its own thing. (Headline, details in a variety of articles on the web).


U.S. releases Maduro ally in exchange for 10 Americans imprisoned in Venezuela




Heidhurtin 24th Dec 2023 08:46

Uk Deploying HMS Trent
 
I'm not sure how effective a River Class would be, and with an endurance of 35 days (Wiki) and unable to dock, how long it can stay there, but at least it shows some support. These vessels can operate Merlin, but are they normally deployed with one?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67806227

ORAC 28th Dec 2023 21:35

Video…

Venezuelan President Maduro is ordering that the Venezuelan military conduct “defensive actions” against the Royal Navy’s HMS Trent while it visits Guyana.

Lonewolf_50 29th Dec 2023 01:19

You can't make this shi!t up. Pure comedy gold.


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