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-   -   Venezuela poised to invade Guyana (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/656091-venezuela-poised-invade-guyana.html)

SLXOwft 1st Dec 2023 17:05

The ICJ which is examining the territorial dispute has ordered the Venezualan Government to do nothing to alter the status quo. The consensus is tha Maduro is testing the strenght of his support. as caiman27 implies. THe UK has a defence training agreement with Guyana but asa far as I know nothing public by way of an agreement to provide miltary support.


Judges at the World Court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter the situation on the ground in a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with Guyana, which controls the area.

The court did not expressly forbid Venezuela from going ahead with a referendum on Sunday over its rights to the region around the Esequibo river, as Guyana has requested.

But judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - as the World Court is formally known - ruled that any move to alter the status quo should be stopped."The court observes that the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute is that Guyana administers and exercises control over that area," presiding judge Joan Donoghue said.

"Venezuela must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation," she added.
(...)

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vociferously encouraged voters to approve the referendum, in what political analysts say is a test of government support ahead of planned 2024 presidential elections, rather than a prelude to bellicose action.

The referendum, which is "consultative" and can be approved by simple majority, asks Venezuelans, among other things, if they agree to incorporate the region and create a state called Guayana Esequiba.

The analysts said the referendum will probably be approved, given the lack of any 'no' campaign and the likelihood that voters who are opposed will stay home.

Friday's ruling is the latest development in the larger border dispute. The ICJ said in April it had jurisdiction over the case, but a final ruling could be years away.
World Court orders Venezuela to refrain from action in border dispute with Guyana

ex-fast-jets 1st Dec 2023 18:06

It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs.
 
Your opinion VM - others still use the Harrier/AV-B or variants of it. Our GR-9 would still be a valid force component for any current conflict, with the weapons it could now carry, and it would add capability to QEII and PWLS without much added support infrastructure - plus interoperability with USMC and other vessels. Not as capable as the F-35B, maybe, but I have no valid knowledge of the difference the two offer with modern weapons capability of either or both. The old Harrier did well in Belize with its very limited weapons, so I think a GR-9 with a much more capable weapons load could have done quite well in an environment such as Guyana if we had not sent them to the scrap yard. Just my opinion.

Lonewolf_50 1st Dec 2023 18:32


Originally Posted by SLXOwft (Post 11549548)
The ICJ which is examining the territorial dispute has ordered the Venezualan Government to do nothing to alter the status quo. The consensus is tha Maduro is testing the strenght of his support. as caiman27 implies. THe UK has a defence training agreement with Guyana but asa far as I know nothing public by way of an agreement to provide miltary support.


Judges at the World Court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter the situation on the ground in a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with Guyana, which controls the area.

The court did not expressly forbid Venezuela from going ahead with a referendum on Sunday over its rights to the region around the Esequibo river, as Guyana has requested.

But judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - as the World Court is formally known - ruled that any move to alter the status quo should be stopped."The court observes that the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute is that Guyana administers and exercises control over that area," presiding judge Joan Donoghue said.

"Venezuela must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation," she added.
(...)

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vociferously encouraged voters to approve the referendum, in what political analysts say is a test of government support ahead of planned 2024 presidential elections, rather than a prelude to bellicose action.

The referendum, which is "consultative" and can be approved by simple majority, asks Venezuelans, among other things, if they agree to incorporate the region and create a state called Guayana Esequiba.

The analysts said the referendum will probably be approved, given the lack of any 'no' campaign and the likelihood that voters who are opposed will stay home.

Friday's ruling is the latest development in the larger border dispute. The ICJ said in April it had jurisdiction over the case, but a final ruling could be years away.
World Court orders Venezuela to refrain from action in border dispute with Guyana

The "world court" has no enforcement arm, so how does this end up as anything but a load of noise?
Concur with the terrain by caiman27.
Not sure about Venezuelan army readiness: not sure if we'll find out either.

ORAC: are you sure Brazil wants to fight over this?

And lastly: Where is OAS in all of this?

DaveReidUK 1st Dec 2023 19:12


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11548571)
Plus they have Russia’s backing militarily and politically in this wonderful new ‘anti-white bloc’ world order that Russia envisions.

I can't see military backing from Russia amounting to much, given its other current commitments.

Countdown begins 1st Dec 2023 19:27


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11548890)
It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs.
The UK has no responsibility for Guyana's defence. If this kicks off the only task that might possibly involve UK forces would be if Embassy staff needed emergency evacuation.

You seem at odds with the facts and the experienced that have been in harms way.
Forget Flight Sim, have you any aviation experience to bring us?

langleybaston 1st Dec 2023 19:55


Originally Posted by Countdown begins (Post 11549623)
You seem at odds with the facts and the experienced that have been in harms way.
Forget Flight Sim, have you any aviation experience to bring us?

Not relevant to the points that VM makes, and a cheap shot re Flight Sim or otherwise is not called for. This forum is a broad church, otherwise I and many others would not be here or hereabouts.

Countdown begins 1st Dec 2023 20:04


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11549641)
Not relevant to the points that VM makes, and a cheap shot re Flight Sim or otherwise is not called for. This forum is a broad church, otherwise I and many others would not be here or hereabouts.

Yet again, Langley, you seem to think you are the POO. Clearly, in this instance of confusion, you have missed that exact point.
let’s keep the church out of it, let’s consider who is chatting to who. Understand?

Atlasisrubbish 1st Dec 2023 20:06


Originally Posted by Countdown begins (Post 11549648)
Yet again, Langley, you seem to think you are the POO. Clearly, in this instance of confusion, you have missed that exact point.
let’s keep the church out of it, let’s consider who is chatting to who. Understand?

Politely put, CD.

Video Mixdown 1st Dec 2023 20:31


Originally Posted by Countdown begins (Post 11549623)
You seem at odds with the facts and the experienced that have been in harms way.
Forget Flight Sim, have you any aviation experience to bring us?

There was no call for that. You are correct that I was not aircrew, but Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time. It served the UK very well, but that was in the past and I would not want to see RAF/RN pilots sent into combat in an aircraft that is clearly outdated by today's standards. Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve.

langleybaston 1st Dec 2023 20:34


Originally Posted by Countdown begins (Post 11549648)
Yet again, Langley, you seem to think you are the POO. Clearly, in this instance of confusion, you have missed that exact point.
let’s keep the church out of it, let’s consider who is chatting to who. Understand?

Do please educate me on the exact point. I can handle longer sentences and longer words.

Try starting with: "the exact point is" and take it from there.

Atlasisrubbish 1st Dec 2023 20:48


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11549663)
There was no call for that. You are correct that I was not aircrew, but Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time. It served the UK very well, but that was in the past and I would not want to see RAF/RN pilots sent into combat in an aircraft that is clearly outdated by today's standards. Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve.

GR9
It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs’
Not a great , informed or otherwise, statement from someone who then pleads ignorance of their remarks… because they they know absolutely nothing about it, it would seem.
Weatherboy, same for you.

Countdown begins 1st Dec 2023 20:52


Originally Posted by Atlasisrubbish (Post 11549671)

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11549663)
There was no call for that. You are correct that I was not aircrew, but Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time. It served the UK very well, but that was in the past and I would not want to see RAF/RN pilots sent into combat in an aircraft that is clearly outdated by today's standards. Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve.

GR9
It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs’
Not a great , informed or otherwise, statement from someone who then pleads ignorance of their remarks… because they they know absolutely nothing about it, it would seem.
Weatherboy, same for you.

‘Weatherboy!’! Now that is particularly funny, some outgrow their use, some remain in their swim lane…. Some just don’t.

Lonewolf_50 1st Dec 2023 21:14


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11549488)
We were all happier when ignorant and ill-informed,

Speak for yourself.

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11549663)
Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time.{snip}

Engineer/maintenance?

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11549663)
Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve.

Our Marines got a lot of use out of the Harrier. While it's a bit long in the tooth at this point, a few of them are still in active service.
VMA 231 and 223 are still flying them.

Originally Posted by a brief summary
USMC and Italian Navy AV-8Bs are being replaced by the Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning II, with the former expected to operate its Harriers until 2025.
Starting in 2007, Spain was looking to replace its Harrier IIs—with the likely option being the F-35B.
The Spanish government, in May 2014 however, announced that it had decided to extend the aircraft's service life to beyond 2025 due to a lack of funds for a replacement aircraft.

I realize those aren't UK Harriers, but some Harriers have a way to go before the boneyard summons.

Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11548854)
If it is a republic, "nothing to see here, move on please".

Speak for yourself.

Back to the Venezuelan saber rattling: not sure if it's just noise or a case of "we'll see what we can get away with" ...

fdr 1st Dec 2023 22:23

Re Venezuelan vs Brazilian AF, would be interesting to see how unsupported F16s geo against just a handful of JAS39's, the Su's are used toot being maintained. Airlift wise Brazil has it all over V.

tdracer 1st Dec 2023 23:03

I doubt many Venezuelans - outside of those in power - are more interested in Guyana than where their next meal is coming from.
Classic political ploy to distract the people rather than allowing them to focus on what the real problems are.

rattman 1st Dec 2023 23:43


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11549598)

ORAC: are you sure Brazil wants to fight over this?

It seems more like we dont want you coming through our territory thing. THey aren't going to attack V

RomeoAlphaMike 2nd Dec 2023 09:17

Another thread derailed by old farts reminiscing about Harrier.

Like clockwork.

mahogany bob 2nd Dec 2023 09:54

Langley Baston

This forum is a broad church, otherwise I and many others would not be here or hereabouts.

diverse opinions are always welcome - so keep posting!
us Aircrew have broad shoulders!
by the way any idea when this ‘cold snap’ is going to end?

PS wish we still had the ‘great’ Harrier

chevvron 2nd Dec 2023 10:13


Originally Posted by mahogany bob (Post 11549958)
by the way any idea when this ‘cold snap’ is going to end?

PS wish we still had the ‘great’ Harrier

In SE England it should get a bit milder tonight.
Should have kept some Harriers at least in storage for 'police operations' like this and Belize, maybe the Falklands where they could operate on some of the outlying islands.
Don't forget USAF keep a small force of F-117s flying for special ops.

Bob Viking 2nd Dec 2023 13:50

Harrier
 
Regardless of whether or not the Harrier would have any operational relevance to add to any current or future conflict it is a completely moot point. We do not have the pilots to fly them.

A shed full of Harriers would need to be maintained. That needs engineers. If they were pulled out of the shed and brought up to operational readiness that would require a shed load more engineers.

You would then need pilots. They would need training to fly an aircraft that most of them have never flown.

Those engineers and pilots would need to be drawn from current fleets. Which defeats the whole object.

The same argument holds true for Tornado, Jaguar, Phantom, TSR2 and any other historical type you can think of.

Take me as an example. I last flew a Jaguar in 2007. If the UK ever became desperate enough to need to bring them out of retirement, firstly, that would be a very bad world and secondly it would take me a good few months to get back up to speed and be useful. Thats aside from the fact I am no longer serving. If you took one of my colleagues who used to fly the Jaguar and is still serving, they are all either flying Typhoon, F35, helicopters or a desk.

BV


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