Quite bizarre. This is C-17A 02-1109 from the 62nd AW out of Mc Chord AFB, WA. For clarity, the C-17A departing Kabul with 641? POB was Dover AFB based 436th AW C-17A 01-0186.

Take his remark at face value ORAC. Did he seek to lay any blame on the military? If the ac left nearly empty then the reason does need to be investigated as it means our forces are potentially putting themselves in harm's way for no good reason. That does not mean the reason/fault lies with the military, far from it. If people are not arriving the airport in time to be processed, which is the most likely reason, then the cause needs to be identified. It could be any number or reasons. Taliban interference, poor comms, not being called forward in time, heavy traffic, you name it.

Been Here Before?
 

The combination of events in Kabul reminds of Tehran, but on steroids as to the number of US Citizens and allied folks at risk. Weak US leadership, minimalistic approach to planning ( or none at all in some areas in this instance ) led to long standing consequences and a one term President in the previous instance.Nothing in public media to make one think a different outcome is on the horizon now.
Another aspect that has my attention is obtained by the painful watching of Rear Admiral Kirby trying to explain the in-explainable. Were we in ages past, the Sr staff would have resigned ( according to the usually well informed General Keane, they advised against this action ), but they did not. Wonder if any of them are having second thoughts?

Meanwhile, the US leaders still don't have a plan on how US personnel are supposed to get to the airport - literally telling them 'they are on their own'. Pathetic.
It's not the leaving - it's how it's being done that has most Americans outraged (not to mention much of the rest of the world).

Not that much difference over here with those Afghans we are duty-bound to recover to the UK. For many years our main operating area was in Helmand (in the south) and we drew a great deal of our direct support from the local area. Just how anyone could travel such a massive distance once the Taliban severed the only links to Kabul a few weeks ago is apparently beyond the comprehension of our government. The fall of Kabul just sealed the matter completely.

Perhaps you should consider how such a plan may be written and carried through. No plan survives contact with the enemy. In this case Red forces are suddenly everywhere in a way that was never anticipated and they are inside the decision loop. Civilians are clogging the roads, the airfield is either overrun by civilians or controlled by Red. So how would you pre-plan that?
All Blue can do is sit down, draw breath, let the dust settle a bit, collate what they know and what they don't know, what they have and what they need, decide what must be done and what is possible then come up with a plan that can be refined to regain control of the situation. Just rushing at it tends not to help and eats up resources. What would you have them do?

That makes as much sense as suggesting that non-Afghans shouldn't comment on how bad this debacle is for Afghanistan. The subject is "World Affairs" and the USA, and Joe Biden, are inextricably woven into any such discussion. Additionally, the USA is the world leader in violently inserting itself into the affairs of other nations. This tragic mess in Afghanistan is simply the latest example of the many debacles, and more instability, created by "the World's Policeman" and "the Leader of the Free World".

I think that Al Qaeda “ violently inserted itself into the affairs……” of the USA first, with the shelter and support of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan

"Right, let's get out of Afghanistan"
"Yes Sir, when?'
"By Sep 1"
"Yes Sir, that gives us x days to get our people out safely, since even primary school children in UK know that the Taliban will mobilise as soon as we move to leave."
"The ANA will stop them, we trained them."
"Mmm, we maybe shouldn't bet on that; and when the Taliban do move, road transport will be a no-no. Our aid workers are all over"

20 more mins of this...

"OK, I want a plan in 24 hours that makes our people safe before we tip our hand."
"Yes Sir."

The people saying, "Yessir!" are the ones who supposedly make it that we sleep safe in our beds.

CG

See Allister Heath in the D Tel: sheesh! USA entering terminal decline. Makes a powerful case.
Please tell me it's not true

Watching Question Time special, some excellent comments from The Afghan reporter, sorry I never got her name, Rory Stewart, and the Female veteran in the audience… Lisa Nandy was as one expected and James Cleverly didn’t live up to his name.


On another note I was reading that if the USA decided to withdraw which in effect kicked the legs out from under every other country involved, why did they not do it during the Winter months when the Taliban do not fight, thus giving the Country a chance.

​​​​​​…

You are mistaking Al Qaeda for Afghanistan. If you are referring to the events of Sept 11, 2001, then the USA could have dealt with Al Qaeda in other more precise ways than overthrowing the Taliban government in Afghanistan (temporarily as it turns out). Additionally, re 9/11, there was a State that was much more intimately and directly involved than Afghanistan. Despite that, the USA treats the KSA as a friend and ally. As they do Pakistan. Why is that do you think?

And so it starts

https://www.foxnews.com/world/taliba...ue-afghanistan

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/158993...c_article=true


Excellent reporting on one of the C17 departures.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ape-journalist

That would have required thinking about it before making a decision to leave, which does not appear to be a strong suit in the current leadership's hand. I agree with you on a key point: once the US left, a lot of the lesser included cases were left without out large muscle movement support.
Oh to be a fly on the wall for the last two months as the various disengagement meetings and plans were put together.
I am a bit out of date, granted, but what is opaque to me is how the in-country phased disengagement was being planned and coordinated with the (so-called) friendlies, whose abilities to adhere to OPSEC are (or were in my experience) infamously bad.
I suspect a few papers on that will emerge in the coming months; I'll be reading them with interest. Theater level planning at the pol/mil level is something I had a modest amount of experience with, but as I look back it's been well over a decade since I did anything like that.

Sam, take it to Jet Blast, will you? (And time lord). This is the Mil Av forum, and while what the Mil does is heavily informed by what the Pols do, bickering about that is (1) long in the tooth and (2) best discussed in JB. The topic at the head of thisthread is

Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

not bickering about a twenty year old decision.

Now the Taliban’s problems begin. The had, or have, enough money to fund their operations as a group - but not pay the salaries of everyone employed to run the country.

Forgetting the loss of aid, they will also lose the money paid each month as salaries for the notional Afghan armed forces. Overall they will lose over fifty percent of their GDP. As an example, last year they’re current count deficit is around -75%.

It is suggested they can interest investment in raw resources such as copper and lithium, but there are two main drawbacks. Firstly any such investment requires massive growth and investment in infrastructure such as power and transport which isn’t forthcoming (China pumped in over $4B into a copper mine about a decade ago and didn’t get a single ton out), and neither Russia or China want a rich Islamic fundamentalist nation on their borders…

The USA, infamously, has been flying in C-17 loads of dollars every months to pay the government bills - that obviously is at an end…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...reign-reserves

https://tradingeconomics.com/afghanistan/exports

If only - in reality I think you might find it a tad more complicated that that, Those sort of plans always existed when I was out that way and starting to move 1000s of people from all over to Kabul might tip your hand, especially as they might mention they and their family are packing. Even anticipating a collapse of the ANA, I suspect the speed the Taliban took over took everyone by surprise
There was an occasion when an RAF unit in Germany decided to exercise the families evacuation plan and found itself leading a convoy of German refugees with them.

True story:
Right Ninthace. We have a plan to evacuate to the families and non essential personnel. Yessir
And we have a plan for all the ac to bug out. Yessir
And we have a plan to hold the airfield after that, Yessir
Right, Now I need you to come up with a plan to evacuate the rest of the station when ordered. Yessir
Can I ask a few questions sir?
By all means
How many of us are left alive? Do we have other friendly forces? How many wounded do we have? What transport do we have left? Where is the enemy coming from? What roads are clear and what bridges are still intact? etc,
I don't know.
Well when you do sir, I will have a plan.

Lonewolf 50,

You are absolutley correct (re "take it to JB). My mistake.

True story.

280SU Cyprus (radar station at the top of Mount Olympus) in 1976, two years after the Turkish invasion. Things have, supposedly, settled down.

Station commander decides the time has come when we can start practicing for alerts, exercises etc and decides to have a call out.

A few nights later the siren goes off in the middle of the night and everyone scrambles into clothes and heads to MT yard and then into Landrovers and 4-toners to head off to the operations site at the peak.

Everything grinds to a halt at the main gate where the road is packed with all the inhabitants of Troodos and Platres villages who think the Turks are coming for the rest of the island and have stampeded to the site seeking sanctuary…

We never held another call out or exercise after that…..

https://americanmilitarynews.com/202...Y9ph_HSMXo-Kms

The Air Force Office of Special Investigations is reviewing the events that led to a deadly C-17 takeoff from Kabul Monday, during which Afghans mobbed and clung to the accelerating plane, resulting in multiple deaths.The aircraft diverted to Al Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar. Human remains were found in the wheel well, the Air Force said in its statement.

“The aircraft is currently impounded to provide time to collect the remains and inspect the aircraft before it is returned to flying status,” the Air Force said.

The OSI review will not only look at the decision to conduct the takeoff, but also at the release of video “and the source of social media posts” from inside the C-17 that showed a body violently flapping in the air at the wheel well.

First off, as previously mentioned, there is "Fighting Season" and a 'stay home' season in Afghanistan. This administration chose to leave at the height of the 'Fighting Season' - what could possibly go wrong :ugh:.
Second, they left the military airbase in the middle of the night last month - instead of using it as a base of operations to get the civilians out.
Third, they pulled out all the military and then moved to get the civilians - which then required them to bring the military back in. What sort of planning is that?
Several military leaders warned Biden and company that what they were doing was going to be a disaster and were ignored.
Pathetic lack of leadership and huge embarrassment to the US.
I shudder to think of what China, Russia, North Korea, and the various terrorists groups are planning after seeing this.:uhoh: