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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

t43562 13th Jan 2023 11:44


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11365425)
It does however screw the German arms industry over re exports of their equipment, who the heck is going to buy arms from them in the future knowing their hands are tied as to what they can and cannot do with them...

And to quote Uncle Albert

"During the War" Germany, had no qualms about using and supplying French or Czech armour to their allies without the permission of the relevant Governments in exile ;)

Don't other countries do this ? I would have thought it was useful from the point of view of stopping your technology from ending up in China.

NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 11:48

I wonder who the SPG-9 seen at the end belongs too? similar in use i suppose to the old UK Mobat and Wombat.


By 2019 Russian Army still used this weapon. Recently Ukraine planned to restart production of this weapon.
https://military-today.com/artillery/spg_9.htm


Pali 13th Jan 2023 11:54

I just wonder what happened to the original M1 and M1IP Abrams tanks, with different canon it is of little value or possibly even liability for US forces but Ukrainians could utilise them well. They are still superior to any variant of T-90, aren't they?


NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 11:54


Originally Posted by t43562 (Post 11365486)
Don't other countries do this ? I would have thought it was useful from the point of view of stopping your technology from ending up in China.

I get that, but fast forward say 20 years and another situation like Ukraine happens, would the UK be able to provide Challenger 3 to the country being a British built tank but with it having a Rheinmetall’s latest generation L55A1 120mm smoothbore gun. Does that mean that Germany could veto it and the sales, say Saudi wanted to buy them now etc?

Not that we would, but In theory could the UK veto the USA in providing Ukraine with the M777 Atillery to Ukraine as they are British designed weapons?

or could Germany veto the US providing Abrams M1A1 as it had the 120mm smoothbore cannon by Rheinmettal

ORAC 13th Jan 2023 12:03

👍

In recent months, russia has involved tens of thousands of convicts in its military operation in Ukraine.

​​​​​​​ As it turns out, there is absolutely no difference between convicted russian criminals and yet to be convicted russian war criminals.

NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 12:32

No words.....


Xeptu 13th Jan 2023 12:40

Europe needs to get stuck in and do everything it can to assure Ukraine not only wins but liberates all of it's territories, because if it doesn't and ukraine falls all that Russian /Ukraine/ Belarusian firepower is coming Germany and Poland's way. Don't think for a minute that it won't and where will NATO be, not in Europe, don't be counting on any help from the US or Canada should that happen, why would they it's not their back yard. It will be seen as "you have made your decision" You have to be in Ukraine by March, if not Europe as we know it is gone.

ORAC 13th Jan 2023 12:41

🤔🤫🤫👍

Western countries are so worried about sending tanks to Ukraine, they’re arguing about what is and isn’t a “tank.” We offer our humble suggestion…

​​​​​​​The Abrams M1A2 Sports Utility Vehicle

uxb99 13th Jan 2023 13:06


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11365523)

So Russia IS fighting WW1 again? So much for mobility, precision, violence of action etc..
Why are we wasting time with this guy? I have a feeling this war is going to drag on for years due to the Wests indecision.
I predict stalemate, tiring attrition for Ukraine and boredom from the Wests political leaders.
A very dangerous situation.

Andy_S 13th Jan 2023 13:43


Originally Posted by uxb99 (Post 11365537)
I predict stalemate, tiring attrition for Ukraine and boredom from the Wests political leaders.

Which probably, considering the failure to conquer Ukraine quickly, is Putin's best hope of getting something out of this.

NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 13:46

Open Sesame????

https://www-zdf-de.translate.goog/na..._x_tr_pto=wapp


BREAKING: Germany is open to letting Poland transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Asked about it, German Vice-Chancellor Habeck said Berlin “should not stand in the way when other countries make decisions to support Ukraine” (…) "irrespective of what decisions Germany makes"


NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 13:58

Who said you get bad news on friday the 13th, I just hope these figures are accurate.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cf2f11175f.png

Tartiflette Fan 13th Jan 2023 14:01


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11365497)
I get that, but fast forward say 20 years and another situation like Ukraine happens, would the UK be able to provide Challenger 3 to the country being a British built tank but with it having a Rheinmetall’s latest generation L55A1 120mm smoothbore gun. Does that mean that Germany could veto it and the sales, say Saudi wanted to buy them now etc?

Not that we would, but In theory could the UK veto the USA in providing Ukraine with the M777 Atillery to Ukraine as they are British designed weapons?

or could Germany veto the US providing Abrams M1A1 as it had the 120mm smoothbore cannon by Rheinmettal

I think (not certain ) that in both cases the answer is no. The M777 is built by an American subsidiary of BAe and I doubt the origin of the design is relevant and BAe may well have passed all rights to the subsidiary to avoid such potential problems. It seems the gun used on the M1 is only based on the Rheinmetall design, but is not the same to the extent that they are not interchangeable. Rheinmetall licensed the rights to the USA, so exact information would be contained in that license. This would be the same condition for the Challenger 3 export you hypothesise (imo )

Tartiflette Fan 13th Jan 2023 14:07


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11365553)
Open Sesame????

Definitely not - this is just his opinion, and he doesn't have the say-so. Astonishingly the Greens (Habeck's party ) have been hugely more supportive of Ukraine and weapon transfers than the SPD, however the SPD conference of a few days ago confirmed the current line of not being inflammatory towards Russia and seeking negotiations with Putin.

His statement will however serve to put more pressure on Scholz, which combined with Polish, Finnish and British expressions of intent, may push him over the edge. It may need an actual British commitment to deliver to make him move, and I wouldn't be certain about that either.

Confusious 13th Jan 2023 15:10

An interesting read.

NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 16:21

Russian heli pilot interview, shame it ends


NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 16:52


ORAC 13th Jan 2023 17:12

Major explosion in a gas pipeline in Lithuania supplying Latvia. Fireball over 160ft high and area being evacuated.

Wokkafans 13th Jan 2023 17:36


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11365689)
Major explosion in a gas pipeline in Lithuania supplying Latvia. Fireball over 160ft high and area being evacuated.



Wokkafans 13th Jan 2023 18:47

Lambrecht to reportedly resign as German defense minister:

"Christine Lambrecht has decided to step down from the position of Germany's defense minister, Bild reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the report, the government is already discussing who could replace her but a final decision on a successor is yet to be made.

Earlier this week, a poll conducted by the Institute for New Social Answers (INSA) showed that 64% of German respondents wanted the minister to resign, while only 9% described her performance in the role as positive. Lambrecht recently came under fire over allegedly mishandling defense policies, as well as a New Year's message in which she stated the war in Ukraine led to "a lot of special experiences."


uxb99 13th Jan 2023 19:59


Originally Posted by Andy_S (Post 11365552)
Which probably, considering the failure to conquer Ukraine quickly, is Putin's best hope of getting something out of this.

Probably his only hope.

tdracer 13th Jan 2023 22:34

Interesting article regarding the abilities and vulnerabilities of the Russian tanks:
Armor: Building A Better Defective Tank (strategypage.com)

While the official most modern Russian tank is the T-90M, it is not the tank Russian crews prefer. The favorite is the T-72B3, which is as effective as the T-90 and lacks a lot of the additional features on the T-90 that don’t work, complicate operation of the tanks and the crews must maintain. The T-90 is for export customers and no Russian troops use the T-90 in peacetime.

NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 23:12

She was the minister who gleefully announced 5000 helmets to Ukraine after they announced sending in 200000 troops, she also admitted months into the job she didn’t understand the ranks of the German Army, not once but twice, she was a liability, resigning is the most competent military decision she has ever made.

Germany to make decision on Leopards next week


NutLoose 13th Jan 2023 23:49

Another sad by-product of the war? What with those in the Dnipro killed by shelling it’s a natural disaster in the making.

​​​​​​​


ORAC 14th Jan 2023 06:12

https://kyivindependent.com/investig...ips-misconduct

Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct

ORAC 14th Jan 2023 06:19

Putin and Proghosin (Wagner) holding a meeting in St Petersburg.


ORAC 14th Jan 2023 06:29

Russians not learning the lesson on not concentrating troops….


FlightDetent 14th Jan 2023 06:55


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11365978)
Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct

Careful, dated Aug last year. Apparently solved around that time, the unscrupulous criminals who seized / develop that legion for themselves already disposed of.

Tartiflette Fan 14th Jan 2023 07:25


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11365999)
Careful, dated Aug last year. Apparently solved around that time, the unscrupulous criminals who seized / develop that legion for themselves already disposed of.

Do you have any follow-up article ?

ORAC 14th Jan 2023 08:48

Belarus is creating its own version of the Wagner mercenary group, according to a report from Deutsche Welle's Russian service.

A private security company called GardServis is said to be increasing its workforce and training to participate in hostilities.

rattman 14th Jan 2023 08:52

GMLRS vs 20 russians (**edit** orac posted the same but different video)

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...ewhere_on_the/

Also various news reports are saying Rishi is going to announce 12 challenger 2 for Ukraine. 4 for immediate delivery and 8 later

ORAC 14th Jan 2023 08:55

Tartiflette,

Issues ongoing as of the end of November. An investigation reportedly under way - but no subsequent action taken I can find.

https://kyivindependent.com/investig...sappropriation

Buster Hyman 14th Jan 2023 10:07


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11366057)
Belarus is creating its own version of the Wagner mercenary group

Plausible deniability for Lukashifty!

Beamr 14th Jan 2023 11:27

It is now confirmed, UK will send Challenger 2's to Ukraine

Hopwfully this'll lead to Germany releasing the Leopards.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

Tartiflette Fan 14th Jan 2023 11:37


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11366136)
It is now confirmed, UK will send Challenger 2's to Ukraine

Hopefully this'll lead to Germany releasing the Leopards.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

I think there's an excellent chance of that happening with Poland/Finland/Spain - plus another two I don't recall - keen to do so, and the Ramstein summit gives them an excellent opportunity to pressure Scholz if necessary. There's a lot of speculation in the German press that's he's ready to drop his opposition as even his deputy - Habeck - has said openly that it should be permitted. He has previously said he wanted it to be as part of a "coalition", so GB plus these others ought to give him enough back-covering if he's still concerned about that.

EDIT: One does , of course, have to expect a Russian announcement some time next week that they have destroyed all of the Challengers.

N707ZS 14th Jan 2023 11:52


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11366136)
It is now confirmed, UK will send Challenger 2's to Ukraine

Hopwfully this'll lead to Germany releasing the Leopards.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

Thought our tanks were obsolete and needed upgrade or replacement, could this be embarrassing.

jolihokistix 14th Jan 2023 11:59

12 is a magical number which can be divided in useful ways.

NutLoose 14th Jan 2023 12:09


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11366057)
Belarus is creating its own version of the Wagner mercenary group, according to a report from Deutsche Welle's Russian service.

A private security company called GardServis is said to be increasing its workforce and training to participate in hostilities.

GardServis sounds like a washing machine warranty.

NutLoose 14th Jan 2023 12:19


Originally Posted by N707ZS (Post 11366149)
Thought our tanks were obsolete and needed upgrade or replacement, could this be embarrassing.

Far from it and has superior armour and a very good gun, though they are simply replacing it with the smooth bore weapon that the original Chally 2 update was going to have, it allows a variety of different round types to be used. The rifled gun currently in use holds the distance kill for a tank on tank and they have never lost a Challenger in a tank fight, bar a blue on blue IIRC. the type of stuff it will be up against will be the types Iraq operated.

it’s on par with the Abrams and Leo. In fact if you watch a lot of US progs like walking dead they use a Chally as an Abrams. ;)

ORAC 14th Jan 2023 12:20

Another wave of missiles inbound to the cities….



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