Turkey looking at going into Libya against Russian mercenaries
 

I'll vote yes, you are probably the only one.
I'll be selling popcorn, as this promises to be highly entertaining.
Pull up a chair and watch the fun.

The Turks and the Russians may, each in their own way, end up showing the world "how to get this sort of thing right."
Or, they may make a complete hash of it.
It gives the media something to cover, if they can avoid the occasional sniper rifle or barrel bomb.

Given the consequences of the disastrously foolish 'regime change' efforts in Syria and Libya, it would be useful to 'name and shame' the responsible architects, if only so as to be able to disregard their advice in the future.
This latest folly merely compounds the damage.they bear the responsibility for.

Article in the Guardian today.
Turkey renews military pledge to Libya as threat of Mediterranean war grows

Several C17 flights from Germany to Libya getting reported on tracking websites.

WWW

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e...lict-w9g8qwm7p

Erdogan poised to send Turkish forces into Libyan conflict

Turkey is fast-tracking a bill to send troops to Libya to prop up the Tripoli government, threatening a new full-blown proxy war in the Middle East. The bill presented to parliament yesterday is expected to pass next week and will open the way for Ankara to give full military backing to Libya’s government of national accord (GNA).

The deployment of troops will pitch Turkey and Qatar against Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, all three of whom oppose the GNA and are backing a rival force in the east of Libya.

The split resembles that which has devastated other countries in the region since the start of the Arab Spring, most notably Syria, where the Russian-backed government of President Assad has now almost fully overwhelmed the opposition, which was supported by Turkey and Qatar, among others. Now President Erdogan of Turkey appears to be using what rebel manpower remains in Syria for his new military adventure. Syrian activists and researchers with contacts in the Libyan capital have confirmed that Syrian rebel forces backed by Turkey have already been sent to fight in the north African country’s civil war.

The secretive Turkish operation to send ethnic Turkmen Syrian fighters to Libya to bolster the GNA ground forces was leaked to the Bloomberg news agency and has been confirmed by a source close to the Syrian opposition. “They get very high salaries and have been promised Turkish nationality,” the source said. It is believed that between 100 and 300 Syrians have already landed in Tripoli, with up to 500 to be sent altogether. They are drawn from a number of the former Free Syrian Army militias who have been recruited into a semi-formal army by Turkey, controlling an area of Syria between the Euphrates and the town of Azaz and acting as a buffer against both the regime and Kurdish forces hostile to Ankara.

The Turkish-backed Syrian opposition “government in exile”, to which the militias are formally aligned, denied it had sent troops to Libya. However, Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher with the Clingendael Institute, who had been in Libya, said that he had independently confirmed the Syrians’ arrival. He said that they were a Turkish response to the Russian decision to send the Wagner Brigade........

this could be more about new Ottomanism. Libya was an Ottoman territory until Italy grabbed it rather brutally in 1911. It's also an excuse to have a pop at UAE and Egypt (and Russia) and will be predominately funded by Qatar, who are thankful for Turkey's ongoing support whilst they are effectively blockaded by Saudi and UAE. Turkey are sensible enough not to.committ ground troops - following the pattern of their occupation of Afrin two years ago.

Turkey is a big country in the ME - and they are starting to throw their weight around in their own interests instead of following the NATO line.

The UK? Totally irrelevant in this fight...................

Indeed.

Ah the good old days when you could subcontract torture to the Gaddafi goons.

As for the current situation in Lybia the first offenders were the French. When it turned out that they did not have the actual military power to finish the job they turned to the US & NATO while sending special troops to hunt (eventually successfully) for Gaddafi in the sewers. Since then the whole place is a complete and utter mess - well done !

The Russian Wagner forces and the Turkish Syrian fighters can each wage a proxy war and try out new methods of warfare including new-fangled Chinese drones etc.
Quote: Haftar's fighters have failed to reach the center of Tripoli but have made small gains in recent weeks in some southern suburbs of the capital with the help of Russian and Sudanese fighters, as well as drones shipped by the UAE, diplomats say. The Chinese-made drones have given Haftar "local air superiority" as they can carry over eight times the weight of explosives than the drones given to the GNA by Turkey and can also cover the whole of Libya, a U.N. report said in November.
https://japantoday.com/category/worl...equest-erdogan

Erdogan seems to want to get Algeria involved too.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1606376/middle-east

I agree, but that's only as a consequence of being between a rock and a hard place. The UK (like other European states) does have a direct interest in ending conflict in Libya, which is to have a stable government with which to cooperate against people-smuggling. Trouble is, it can't make up it's mind whether to support the UN-recognised Islamist government or its Saudi/UAE/Egyptian/Russian-backed secular opponents. Explicitly supporting the latter would undermine (yet again) the conceit that the West seeks to uphold the international system against Russian and Chinese subversion. Explicitly supporting the former would seriously p*ss off a prime export customer and regional partner, and frankly I suspect there is very little enthusiasm in Whitehall for supporting Islamists, however legitimate. So staying out of it is the strategically logical thing to do. As it was (or should have been) with Syria. And Libya the first time. And...

Libya used to have a stable government which was slavishly cooperative with the West. The UK and France led the way to deposing that government, on specious grounds. Now it is a huge mess.
The architects of this disaster have never been identified or called out, so they are probably still ensconced in senior roles making yet more dumb decisions. Don't expect a happy outcome.

Except that Turkey is not a Middle-Eastern country. The UK enjoys good relations with Turkey and remains s influential there and in Gulf politics.

They're not sensu-stricto a ME country but they have definitely become a major player in the last 10 years.

Essentially facing away from NATO & Russia and looking in their own backyard - I don't blame them TBH - hard to be concerned with say Latvia when the neighbourhood is ablaze............

Actually, I do. And perhaps my sarcasm buried that.
They are each on their own side, pursuing their own aims and objective, and (because doing stuff like this is often also about political image building) will be trying to show how to do it right ... so I'll be selling popcorn.
Ad if they end up shooting at each other, even more hilarity ensues given how Vlad has been trying to help drive the wedge between Turkey and various NATO allies.

Turkish MPs pass bill to send troops to support Libyan government
 

Article in The Guardian this evening.

Click the link for the full (quite lengthy) article.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...led-government

Turkish troops have begun deploying to Libya in a bid to prop up the UN-recognised government in Tripoli, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has announced.

The move followed a vote in the Turkish parliament backing deployment and further deadly attacks in Tripoli by an airforce under the control of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who has been trying to oust the government since April.

Erdogan told CNN Turk on Sunday that Turkish forces were already on their way to Libya. “Our soldiers’ duty there is coordination. They will develop the operation centre there. Our soldiers are gradually going right now,” he said........

Be interesting to see what happens now - the Turkish Army is a properly organised outfit whereas the War Lords.................. aren't

Fixed, free of charge.

Damned if they did nothing and damned for what they did. Agree it's a mess - but would suggest the mess is also primarily of the making of a number of competing Islamic and other groups who are perfectly happy butchering each others civpop and would also happily to unite to butcher any "outsiders" who tried to impose any sort of order. It's easy - and lazy - to simply blame "the west".

Also might be related to the various territorial claims people are making for the deepwater Med. There's a lot of oil & gas under there and both Libya & Turkey have an interest in doing down the Greek Cypriots & the Greeks

It is not really clear which side Trump supports, but did he not eventually decide that he rather liked Haftar/Hifter the strongman?

Who knows? Last week's "Economist" reported that the Chinese think "Trump is only a friend of Trump - a man whose self -interest is his only reliable guiding instinct"

If ya'll recall.....Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton (President and Secretary of State respectively) made Regime change in Libya, Egypt, and Syria the cornerstone of American Foreign policy and used US Military force during the Libyan Civil War that resulting in the death of Gadaffi.

If you want to identify the UK proponents then it is your turn.....I just pointed out the American geniuses that led the way from our side.

too many to list SAS, too many to list..................... .

I've not followed this very closely, but I note from NutLoose's link that
:
If any of you have information on the kinds of air support that is being used, currently, that would be of interest.

Also ties into the whole Turkish/Cypriot/EU conflict on oil/gas exploration and rights in the eastern Mediterranean.

https://www.rt.com/news/478416-turke...libya-erdogan/

Erdogan sending Turkish troops to Libya ahead of Berlin peace talks

“Turkey is sending troops to Libya to ensure the stability of the UN-backed government in Tripoli, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced.

The move comes ahead of a Berlin summit on the security situation in the country.Ankara has already deployed forces to train troops loyal to the Government of National Accord (GNA), as part of a security cooperation agreement between the two countries.

Erdogan also said that, as part of a maritime agreement, it would no longer be possible for other states to conduct oil exploration and drilling off the coast of Libya without the approval of Ankara and Tripoli.........

Libya has always taken a robust view about other countries drilling in disputed waters - Tunisia & Malta especially.............

goes far beyond that....

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/...bya-objectives

Turkey’s dual Libya objectives

Russia and Turkey, previous backers of opposing sides in the Libya conflict, have clearly decided that—if they could jointly achieve peace in the country—both would be assured of a lasting stake there. This would be a blow to the European powers most closely associated with Libya, Italy and France, which have persistently tried and failed to bring the fighting to an end. Both countries have strong energy links with Libya which they would like to expand. Now there is a possibility that Russian and Turkish firms will put Libya’s oil and gas reserves in their sights. Russia has said in the past that it is interested in working jointly with Turkey on energy exploration and development.

For President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the link-up with Russia in pursuing peace in Libya has another huge dividend. Moscow’s involvement in the initiative is an unmistakable sign that President Vladimir Putin accepts Turkey’s maritime agreement with Libya. This creates two vast contiguous blocks of the Eastern Mediterranean, from the Turkish coast in the north to Libya in the south, with a joint maritime border between the two. The northern part, claimed by Turkey, encompasses some Greek island and parts of Cyprus’ economic exclusion zone (EEZ)......

https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkey...n-as-possible/

Turkey to start Mediterranean gas exploration ‘as soon as possible’

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey will start exploring for gas in the eastern Mediterranean this year, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed Thursday, after signing a maritime deal with Libya.

“We will start search and drilling activities as soon as possible in 2020 after issuing licenses for the areas,” Erdogan said during a two-hour speech in the capital. He added that Turkey’s seismic exploration vessel Oruc Reis would soon be deployed.

Ankara angered neighboring countries in the Mediterranean with an agreement signed with the Tripoli government in November, which claimed extensive areas of the sea for Turkey. Greece says the deal fails to take into account the island of Crete, while Turkey has already upset Cyprus by sending ships to search for oil and gas off the divided island.

Erdogan said it was “no longer legally possible” for any search and drilling activities or a pipeline without Libya or Turkey’s approval. Earlier this month, Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed a deal to construct an EastMed pipeline to ship gas to Europe, despite Turkey’s vehement opposition.......

lot of posturing - but there is a lot of oil & gas in the deep Med to the east

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...bels-l7wld0nfg

Turkey sends fighter jets into Libyan airspace as GNA attacks rebels

Turkey has flown F16 fighter jets over the Libyan coast as it steps up intervention in the country’s civil war.

The military authorities in Ankara said the flights were part of a training exercise. However, they took place as the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) continued a major offensive against the rebel officer, Khalifa Haftar, and his Libyan National Army (LNA)........

As part of the offensive, jets carried out numerous attacks over the rebel-held town of Tarhouna, southeast of Tripoli, and on a rebel air base. The GNA insisted the raids were carried out by their own small force of drones and ageing Russian and Italian fighter jets and trainer aircraft.

Turkey’s deployment of F16s could have been intended to send a message after the UAE were said to have agreed to supply Marshal Haftar’s forces with an upgraded air defence system........

The flypast of F16s, which began on Friday, was militarily as well as politically significant. Military experts had questioned whether Turkey’s airforce would have the operating range to take part in the Libyan war without Nato support.

The exercises were briefly described by the Turkish military as involving Air Force Command jets from Eskisehir airbase in northwest Turkey, and the Turkish navy. A key factor, however, was that Turkish KC-135R refuelling tankers were said to have been used.........

https://www.snafu-solomon.com/2020/0...are-being.html

Russian anti-air systems are being interdicted before they even can setup for battle...

Mig-29's on the ground in Libya https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-backed-forces

Great question. Superficially, at least, Haftar seems to be the non-Islamist, professional military officer, former anti-Gaddafi bloke, who lived in the US and gained US citizenship, and who seems to be modestly democratic by inclination, if also somewhat autocratic. A lovely chap? Perhaps not. Preferable to Islamists and idealogues? Perhaps.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/w...rces-j5bqcmjlz

Elite Russian mercenaries Wagner Group run out of Tripoli by Turkish forces

Russia’s elite mercenary corps, the Wagner Group, has been forced into a humiliating retreat in a victory for Turkey’s rival military adventure in Libya.

Hundreds of men were filmed driving south from the capital, Tripoli, towards the town of Bani Walid, after their local allies announced a pullback from a number of front lines. They were then said to have flown on to a rear base, taking with them artillery and other heavy weapons.

The group, run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close associate of President Putin, played a key role in the Syrian civil war before being sent to support the rebel Libyan National Army (LNA) of Khalifa Haftar, a Russian-backed former-army officer from the regime of Colonel Gaddafi. In December Turkey came to the aid of the UN-recognised government with military drones and mercenaries of its own — Syrian rebel veterans of that country’s own civil war.

After giving up some of their last strongholds in the south of Tripoli over the weekend, Wagner Group troops were filmed retreating through the desert. It is unclear what further part they will play in the fighting. A UN report last week revealed that the LNA had been trying to recruit a second mercenary force, run by a South African businessman, although that also withdrew from Tripoli after a row with Marshal Haftar......

The arrival of the Wagner force helped the LNA assault on Tripoli in April last year, which for a moment looked as if it might succeed. However, a new and relatively static front opened up in the southern suburbs until the Turkish intervention in late December.

Pro-GNA media claimed that 1,500 Wagner troops had fled to Bani Walid, taking artillery and other heavy weapons with them. The GNA army spokesman, Mohammed Gununu, said they had withdrawn from three military camps in southern Tripoli and the suburb of Salaheddin.

The GNA is said to be preparing an offensive against Tarhouna, the last LNA stronghold in western Libya after the al-Watiya military base to the west of Tripoli fell last week. During fighting there, at least seven Russian Pantsir anti-aircraft batteries were destroyed by Turkish drones, an embarrassment to Moscow, which has sold the system to countries around the world.

I wonder if the Quadrant Huts are still at Tarhuna Range?

It would appear Russia has now sent fighter jets to Libya to support their mercs.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...es/ar-BB14CcyO

wagner group has reportedly withdrawn from libya, there are various reports some saying they have withdrawn completely after an agreement with turkey that they would not attack the transports to they are withdrawing to another location.

Sounds like they really need the airpower as the turkish drones were making mincemeat of them

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/mili...-libya/1853423

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...200905871.html