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Turkey looking at going into Libya against Russian mercenaries

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Turkey looking at going into Libya against Russian mercenaries

Old 12th Dec 2019, 17:14
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Turkey looking at going into Libya against Russian mercenaries

Am I the only one that this sounds like a disaster in the making?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/...n-libya-a68600
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Old 12th Dec 2019, 21:24
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I'll vote yes, you are probably the only one.
I'll be selling popcorn, as this promises to be highly entertaining.
Pull up a chair and watch the fun.

The Turks and the Russians may, each in their own way, end up showing the world "how to get this sort of thing right."
Or, they may make a complete hash of it.
It gives the media something to cover, if they can avoid the occasional sniper rifle or barrel bomb.
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Old 12th Dec 2019, 21:50
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Given the consequences of the disastrously foolish 'regime change' efforts in Syria and Libya, it would be useful to 'name and shame' the responsible architects, if only so as to be able to disregard their advice in the future.
This latest folly merely compounds the damage.they bear the responsibility for.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 12:07
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Article in the Guardian today.
Turkey renews military pledge to Libya as threat of Mediterranean war grows
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Old 16th Dec 2019, 03:39
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Several C17 flights from Germany to Libya getting reported on tracking websites.

WWW
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 07:11
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e...lict-w9g8qwm7p

Erdogan poised to send Turkish forces into Libyan conflict

Turkey is fast-tracking a bill to send troops to Libya to prop up the Tripoli government, threatening a new full-blown proxy war in the Middle East. The bill presented to parliament yesterday is expected to pass next week and will open the way for Ankara to give full military backing to Libya’s government of national accord (GNA).

The deployment of troops will pitch Turkey and Qatar against Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, all three of whom oppose the GNA and are backing a rival force in the east of Libya.

The split resembles that which has devastated other countries in the region since the start of the Arab Spring, most notably Syria, where the Russian-backed government of President Assad has now almost fully overwhelmed the opposition, which was supported by Turkey and Qatar, among others. Now President Erdogan of Turkey appears to be using what rebel manpower remains in Syria for his new military adventure. Syrian activists and researchers with contacts in the Libyan capital have confirmed that Syrian rebel forces backed by Turkey have already been sent to fight in the north African country’s civil war.

The secretive Turkish operation to send ethnic Turkmen Syrian fighters to Libya to bolster the GNA ground forces was leaked to the Bloomberg news agency and has been confirmed by a source close to the Syrian opposition. “They get very high salaries and have been promised Turkish nationality,” the source said. It is believed that between 100 and 300 Syrians have already landed in Tripoli, with up to 500 to be sent altogether. They are drawn from a number of the former Free Syrian Army militias who have been recruited into a semi-formal army by Turkey, controlling an area of Syria between the Euphrates and the town of Azaz and acting as a buffer against both the regime and Kurdish forces hostile to Ankara.

The Turkish-backed Syrian opposition “government in exile”, to which the militias are formally aligned, denied it had sent troops to Libya. However, Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher with the Clingendael Institute, who had been in Libya, said that he had independently confirmed the Syrians’ arrival. He said that they were a Turkish response to the Russian decision to send the Wagner Brigade........


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Old 31st Dec 2019, 07:52
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
I'll vote yes, you are probably the only one.
I'll be selling popcorn, as this promises to be highly entertaining.
Pull up a chair and watch the fun.

The Turks and the Russians may, each in their own way, end up showing the world "how to get this sort of thing right."
Or, they may make a complete hash of it.
It gives the media something to cover, if they can avoid the occasional sniper rifle or barrel bomb.
Not at all sure you understand the dynamics here. Do you believe Turkey and Russia are on the same side?
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 08:08
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Originally Posted by Countdown begins View Post

Not at all sure you understand the dynamics here. Do you believe Turkey and Russia are on the same side?
this could be more about new Ottomanism. Libya was an Ottoman territory until Italy grabbed it rather brutally in 1911. It's also an excuse to have a pop at UAE and Egypt (and Russia) and will be predominately funded by Qatar, who are thankful for Turkey's ongoing support whilst they are effectively blockaded by Saudi and UAE. Turkey are sensible enough not to.committ ground troops - following the pattern of their occupation of Afrin two years ago.
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 08:26
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You're not the only one, Nutloose. A few years back when Admiral Kuznetsov was cruising home from a Syria deployment, Haftar was flown on-board for talks with the Russian defence minister. The question is, has the UN, EU, U.S.A backed the wrong horse.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-l...-idUSKBN14V1T2
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 10:25
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I think an ‘Islamist’ vs ‘secular’ analysis helps to understand the who’s who of the post-Arab Spring Middle East (the inverted commas are to acknowledge that the simple terms cover a great deal of complexity). Counter-intuitively to some, KSA and the UAE have been lined up behind the ‘secular’ parties since a sharp deterioration in relations with Muslim Brotherhood-led Egypt, whose first moves on the regional scene exposed the acute vulnerability of the Gulf monarchies to Islamist-inspired popular dissent. This explains KSA’s rapid switch to support Sisi’s overthrow of Morsi and the societal transformation project being attempted by MBS. Meanwhile the Turkish and Qatari leaderships do not have the same vulnerability; indeed Erdogan rose to power at the head of the moderately Islamist AKP. Both have favoured the Islamist parties in regional conflicts as a convenient way of securing influence. Turkey even sent troops to Qatar at the height of a political spat between the latter and KSA.

Russia? Anti-Islamist (think Chechnya). This makes them uneasy bedfellows with Turkey, but Putin can afford the luxury of a transactional relationship without having to worry about charges of hypocrisy. You can bet your last dollar that the S400s will be on a tight leash to stop them being used against Russian interests.

The UK? Between a rock and a hard place (hence the non-publication of a report into Muslim Brotherhood influence a few years back, and a subsequent ‘argument’ between the Government and Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee which is documented here).

Last edited by Easy Street; 31st Dec 2019 at 11:37.
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 11:55
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Turkey is a big country in the ME - and they are starting to throw their weight around in their own interests instead of following the NATO line.

The UK? Totally irrelevant in this fight...................
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 12:36
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
The UK? Totally irrelevant in this fight...................
Indeed.

Ah the good old days when you could subcontract torture to the Gaddafi goons.

As for the current situation in Lybia the first offenders were the French. When it turned out that they did not have the actual military power to finish the job they turned to the US & NATO while sending special troops to hunt (eventually successfully) for Gaddafi in the sewers. Since then the whole place is a complete and utter mess - well done !
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 14:33
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The Russian Wagner forces and the Turkish Syrian fighters can each wage a proxy war and try out new methods of warfare including new-fangled Chinese drones etc.
Quote: Haftar's fighters have failed to reach the center of Tripoli but have made small gains in recent weeks in some southern suburbs of the capital with the help of Russian and Sudanese fighters, as well as drones shipped by the UAE, diplomats say. The Chinese-made drones have given Haftar "local air superiority" as they can carry over eight times the weight of explosives than the drones given to the GNA by Turkey and can also cover the whole of Libya, a U.N. report said in November.
https://japantoday.com/category/worl...equest-erdogan

Erdogan seems to want to get Algeria involved too.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1606376/middle-east
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Old 31st Dec 2019, 15:18
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
The UK? Totally irrelevant in this fight...................
I agree, but that's only as a consequence of being between a rock and a hard place. The UK (like other European states) does have a direct interest in ending conflict in Libya, which is to have a stable government with which to cooperate against people-smuggling. Trouble is, it can't make up it's mind whether to support the UN-recognised Islamist government or its Saudi/UAE/Egyptian/Russian-backed secular opponents. Explicitly supporting the latter would undermine (yet again) the conceit that the West seeks to uphold the international system against Russian and Chinese subversion. Explicitly supporting the former would seriously p*ss off a prime export customer and regional partner, and frankly I suspect there is very little enthusiasm in Whitehall for supporting Islamists, however legitimate. So staying out of it is the strategically logical thing to do. As it was (or should have been) with Syria. And Libya the first time. And...
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Old 1st Jan 2020, 00:33
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Libya used to have a stable government which was slavishly cooperative with the West. The UK and France led the way to deposing that government, on specious grounds. Now it is a huge mess.
The architects of this disaster have never been identified or called out, so they are probably still ensconced in senior roles making yet more dumb decisions. Don't expect a happy outcome.
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Old 2nd Jan 2020, 05:42
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
Turkey is a big country in the ME - and they are starting to throw their weight around in their own interests instead of following the NATO line.

The UK? Totally irrelevant in this fight...................
Except that Turkey is not a Middle-Eastern country. The UK enjoys good relations with Turkey and remains s influential there and in Gulf politics.
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Old 2nd Jan 2020, 08:00
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They're not sensu-stricto a ME country but they have definitely become a major player in the last 10 years.

Essentially facing away from NATO & Russia and looking in their own backyard - I don't blame them TBH - hard to be concerned with say Latvia when the neighbourhood is ablaze............
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Old 2nd Jan 2020, 14:53
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Originally Posted by Countdown begins View Post
Not at all sure you understand the dynamics here.
Actually, I do. And perhaps my sarcasm buried that.
They are each on their own side, pursuing their own aims and objective, and (because doing stuff like this is often also about political image building) will be trying to show how to do it right ... so I'll be selling popcorn.
Ad if they end up shooting at each other, even more hilarity ensues given how Vlad has been trying to help drive the wedge between Turkey and various NATO allies.
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Old 2nd Jan 2020, 16:57
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Turkish MPs pass bill to send troops to support Libyan government

Article in The Guardian this evening.

Turkey’s parliament has approved by a large majority a bill that allows troops to be deployed to Libya in support of the Tripoli-based government in the country’s worsening civil war.
The vote, taken during a special sitting, comes amid fears that the threat of Turkish intervention, in addition to that by other regional competitors, could intensify violence in Libya. MPs voted 325-184 in favour of the deployment.
Click the link for the full (quite lengthy) article.
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Old 6th Jan 2020, 07:24
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...led-government

Turkish troops have begun deploying to Libya in a bid to prop up the UN-recognised government in Tripoli, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has announced.

The move followed a vote in the Turkish parliament backing deployment and further deadly attacks in Tripoli by an airforce under the control of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who has been trying to oust the government since April.

Erdogan told CNN Turk on Sunday that Turkish forces were already on their way to Libya. “Our soldiers’ duty there is coordination. They will develop the operation centre there. Our soldiers are gradually going right now,” he said........
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