UK - More defence cuts
 

This morning's "Times" has the following immediate cuts - all budget driven to cover a £2 Bn a year "hole" in spending

Minehunters down from 15 to 13
Armoured training exercises in Canda down from 4 to 3 per year
Infantry training in Kenya down from 5 to 3 per year

This will save only £20 mm a year

12 Lynxes of 657 AAC used for Special Forces to be scrapped

Cabinet Office review currently looking at reducing F-35 deliveries by 2025 from 48 to 38 but as usual they claim "total purchase will remain unchanged".

This is the first stage in the well known path to "a maximum of .." then "Up to...." " then "buy x defer y" followed by "actually we can get by on 75|% of x".

Does anyone ever wonder if the MOD was vaccinated with a gramophone needle? Exactly the same old s**t every time....

If so, I hope it was a very blunt needle in the backside!

Consequences of buying in $ with the pound at a historic low level?

Consequence of being the only budget of any size where cuts can be made without howls of outrage from the masses.

I'm surprised that they are still going ahead with the AH64E purchase when the current AH64D fleet is by no means worn out.

Scrap the Wildcat and junk JHC - that would save millions and make everyone else in the helo world very happy.

The decision to scrap 657 Sqn is stupid and also old news.

Vendee
It's VERY worn out.....there's also the legacy issue....I won't bore you.

The exchange rate may be an immediate factor, but I think the simple fact is that despite the spending increase that politicians will happily remind us all about, the increase comes on the back of how many years worth of decreases and an overall budget that is insufficient to meet the UK's political aspirations. Dress it up how you like, but governments of all hues have underinvested and overstretched Defence terribly since the Wall came down and the fallacy of their peace dividend was revealed.

But if BREXIT goes badly, watch the exchange rate tank even further and this will not likely be the last immediate cut.

In other words, consequence of Brexit.

No 'if', it's already started as evidenced by this topic.

Melmoth - agreed, all those leavers who seem to think it hasn't been as bad as warned haven't seen the half of it. We are tying up all the parlimentary time and effort with brexit at the very time we should be sorting the country out, the economy is tanking, we still have austerity to deal with.

What a stupid time to tear ourselves away from Europe - especially since the immigration issues aren't going to change and we are adopting all the European laws into British law - what on earth is it going to achieve?

If we are to leave the EU (& we are) it is obvious that at least we start with a set of laws. We obviously cannot re-write all 3985 EU laws in a few days. So this is something to start with which can be changed later. That is what it is going to achieve.

It will save the Conservative Party and that is all that matters.

"we still have austerity to deal with"

We chose not to by re-electing the Conservatives but with a much reduced majority. Continued austerity and efficiency measures rather than tax increases is the Policy pending Brexit unless we have another Referendum or Election.

With the two major Party's as divided as ever on the question of Europe, who knows what the next few years will bring. If we decided to change our mind and stay in, would the EU allow us to continue with all our opt outs and outside the Euro. I suspect not. It's a story that just runs and runs as it has done since 1973!

I suspect not too. In fact, long term and assuming the EU survives, I think Sterling's future is bleak. The inevitable bid for re-entry when the current demographics and psephology shifts in favour of Remainers will see adoption of the Euro as a pre-condition. Unless we can mimic the Swedish approach to defence provision and sustainment and do more in house, then start to think about paying for the successor to F35 in Euros.

I beg to differ. I work on them daily. The airframes are in relatively good condition and they have fairly low airframe hours. They don't actually fly a lot these days.

Crab - agreed, not sure it's that old news though!? Certainly in the public domain anyway...

Was particularly interested to hear that Puma will cover the role when they can't even support Kenya (and the Army pays through the nose for them)...

Melchett: Psephology, I had to look that up, must try to drop it in to conversation.

Politely - yes it has been common knowledge in AAC circles for a few weeks.

I believe the Puma serviceability has been rather poor so no wonder they can't support the Army. Back to the 212s then:ok:

I get that Vendee, but they are tired, the RTM engines may have top of the tree once, but are now regarded as old tech. If you work on them, then you'll know, 1553 databuses are ancient, as are the WP's and SP's etc. The D is now superseded, if we keep going there will be no spares. The techs do an amazing job, but a lynx it ain't. Replacing a T6 gauge? Nope. Spares in the stores? Well i can assure you there isn't an abundance.
So I'm afraid I'll disagree, they are tired, as is the spares chain, the training pipeline.....etc.

Oh Gawd! The Remoaners are out in farce today.
In my lifetime the £ has varied from $4 to $1 so I'm pretty sanguine about it's future and, in the meantime, exports and the tourist trade are doing well.

Leaving the corrupt EU restores control of our fisheries, farming and immigration to Parliament.
The bogus argument that we are retaining EU laws fails to acknowledge that they can be altered at leisure. Contrary to Remoaner propaganda, immigration from outside the EU IS affected. For instance, deportees will, no longer, be able to take their case to the ECHR.

It seems to me that the multiple, mostly unelected, EU bodies are really worried about the loss of the UK contribution to their unaudited coffers. Juncker, the President of the EC, was PM of a country with half the population of Birmingham. You really couldn't make it up.

Of course it will take years to restore our great country to its former success and sovereignty but it will be worth it.

As for 'austerity' and social security money which could go to the mil; perhaps we should take a hard look at our 'could work, won't work' people and stop their tap. As my Scottish grandmother used to say: "Maun dae's a guid master." ('Must do' is a desirable discipline).

Basil - you seem to believe that the UK is any less corrupt than the EU - classic Brexit living in the 50s dogma - we weren't great then and we won't be in future without Europe.

The Brexit process is so f****ed up that the Govt is trying to give ministers powers of royalty (Henry VIII) to bypass parliament in making and adjusting laws.

Yes, great idea, stop paying people's benefits and see how much that costs in the long run - genius.

Basil
The last time UK was a greast country was before the 1914 war when we were top dog, and UK has slid downhill since. The period post 1945 to 1970 was not a golden era either, just look at the strikes and general unrest and the austerity in 1950,s. In fact it was not until the 1980,s before UK plc started to recover, and all the time we were a memeber of the EU. I live in Germany for part of the week now, and I can tell you the view from here looking back at the UK, and whats going on is embarrassing.


Regards
Mr Mac

All the way to the 5th largest economy in the world. Not bad for a small island offshore a continent declining in political and economic importance.

Some people are much too quick to write the UK off.

Please don't turn this into a BREXIT thread.

That depends how you measure it. By other measures like equvilelnce in purchasing power the UK is the 9th largest, or even the 19th largest if you use GDP per capita.

But you have to observe the 3rd law of economics: "To economists the real world will always be a special case"...

PDR

I think I may have started it, apologies.

Sorry, bit like a red rag to a bull to me.
Something I would say to Crab & Mac: I try not to view the UK through rose tints and I didn't mean 'great' as in 'ruling waves'. As they and others have said, since 1945 we have had our less than glorious moments which I truly believe we have overcome but, of course, the danger of regression is always with us.
Anyway, as Butch famously said: "We shall see!"

p.s. Re corruption; again, we have that too. Did anyone read the long and damning obit in the DT yesterday (Thu 7th)? In my experience even the Germans lie about their products and I mean long before the emissions scandal. I was an engineer on a German built ship which, at two years old had pipes rusting through and subsequently went on to be a bit of a nightmare.

Not really about Brexit butt his going on about a great sovereign nation is a joke.
We were great in 1912 and have gone not so much downhill ever since but finding our true level for a small overpopulated country with no natural resources.
When it was Great Britain that only applied to the landowning Rich, for everybody else it was literally **** Britain as you spent your short life down a mine, in a dangerous factory or trudging round rain soaked field , in poverty and being treated like dirt or cannon fodder.

I too have seen the pound fluctuate a lot since I was a kid in the fifties but there has always been a strong underlying trend and it has always been DOWN. As for writing the country off or being unpatriotic I am sorry but being realistic isnt either , the harm that the likes of the Daily Mail do to this country is incalculable (They did after all support Hitler back in the 30's).

We should not aspire to a great Britain but a good Britain where people have a chance of a decent education if they are not rich, get decent health health, do not work ridiculously long hours and neglect their families .

Look at how we treat our future -children and the unborn , in the care of overworked doctors, and dreadfully badly paid nurses and midwives .

Of the course the EU is corrupt, all Government and civil services are corrupt to some degree and ours is no cleaner than most of Europe and certainly no more efficient . Our lawmakers are lobbied by crooked and dishonest businesses (just like most other places) and candidates for PM vetted and influenced by Mr Murdoch -piss him off and you lose; thats sovereignty UK style in 2017. Personally i think a middle of the road politically Eu is a better deal for 90% of the country, than being an American puppet state controlled by foreign business interests trying to relive a time that never existed for the joe public of the country.

If we are the 5th largest economy why are people still using food banks and we make cuts to schools and hospitals? Where is the money going to? £3000000 annual bonus for the CEO of the Royal Bank of Scotland, despite making a loss for the 7th year in a row.

yes, just as being referred to as a 'remoaner' is to those of us who could see past the leavers claims of a land of milk and honey outside Europe along with £350 million to the NHS.........

A successful economy can provide food banks, as do Germany and France, Somalia, less so.

Meanwhile DFID is giving £200m to do the work of corrupt Nigerian government to tackle Boko Haram - a problem entirely of their own making.

Couldn't agree more about stupid aid decisions but the intent of this thread -and I know I contributed a bit to drift was that we can no longer afford the armed forces that match politicians vain glorious view of Britain's Place in the World.

The fact is we no longer really matter on the geo political stage and will not matter at all after brexit. Our history and shared European heritage gives us a strong voice on foreign affairs in the Eu and despite the daily Mail the Eu matters a lot in the world as it is the single largest trade bloc.

So our government wastes a fortune on the wrong type of military and secuirty resources for the sake of keeping a nuclear deterrent.
Why bother, geographically an attack on London is virtually an attack on
Paris so we should pursue a shared deterrence with the French. Much better than our very non independent deterent provided by our Atlantic cousins who most certainly wont let us use nukes unless they agree or want us too .

As for the fifth biggest economy (despite which we cannot pay for a decent health service, have an appalling level of infant mortality below average survival rates for many cancers and heart conditions and cannot provide proper care for the elderly or infirm. The reason is our GDp includes all those so called invisible exports or services as they are called now . These don't really exist as a contribution to the economy in the same way as all those fleets of Mercs and BM and VWs , and trucks and machine tools and ships and high speed trains etc etc which many of our neighbours produce.
Sure money comes into the city of London and most flows out again as the City is more broker than lender. Also the City is now entirely foreign owned and the profits that are made there all disappear back to USA China Germany France etc leaving us with a healthy balance sheet but no actual cash.

So bleak times ahead for you uniformed boys and girls , a shame, you deserve so much better and as a country we need a 21st Century military not a Napoleonic war version with an airforce. But when you have a PM who lies through her teeth like she did today about PPi and NHS pay what chance do you have.

As a patriotic civilian with huge respect for the military, I find all these cuts completely illogical. Obviously I'm not privy to anything in service life but everything I read suggests the services are already over stretched.

What possible justification is there for yet more cuts in an age when the threat to national security has probably never been higher?

There must be other ways to save money; less foreign aid, more effort to recoup tax from businesses using loopholes to avoid it, less handouts to fat wasters who can't be bothered to work, no HS2 trainline ... and I'm sure there must be a myriad others.

It must be soul destroying sometimes for those risking their lives to constantly have the rug pulled from under them while the risk goes up.

Bloody good show to all of you and thank you for keeping us safe despite the best efforts of politicians with their heads firmly in the sand or up the arses of accountants.

Lord Riot,

The simple truth is we're broke. Well, the truth according to the Treasury. The reality is that departmental funding is all about choices. We can afford anything we choose to spend on. We simply don't choose to spend sufficient money, wisely, on Defence to meet requirements.

Well said. FWIW, I agree with you.

Basil,
My understanding is that the E Court HR is linked to 'membership' of the European Convention of Human Rights and has nothing to do with the EU. I believe David Cameron had a manifesto pledge to withdraw us from it and have a UK 'Bill of Rights' this however was ditched because the referendum/Brexit has taken up all available parliamentary time. Theresa May recently committed to remain part of ECHR so deportees right of appeal will remain whatever Brexit deal we get.

As for the 'could work, won't work' people - government has tried to address this for decades, I'm sure you remember Norman Tebbit's 'bike' speech. I have no faith that any future government will address the feckless any better than any previous one and am not sure it has any relevance to the EU.

Brexit aside given the cutbacks I'm amazed we still have so many Chinooks! It must be because they and their crews are so awesome!

There is no need to apologise.

The UK's commitment to NATO is to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Some members of NATO do not even reach this target.

If GDP falls, so too does the commitment.

Even without a formal commitment, defence spending will always play second fiddle to other public services which are perceived to directly affect the voters.

Many including the majority who have posted on this thread believe that the UK's GDP will fall as a direct result of leaving the EU.

IF those opinions prove to be correct, defence spending is likely to suffer further cuts.

The only comment I would make about that stupid 23rd June 2016 plebiscite and the recent General Election, is that the current government doesn't have a clue what it's going to do from one minute to the next... I despair at the ridiculous behaviour of Davis, who sounds and acts like a seedy used car dealer :mad:

I doubt very much whether Mother Theresa will still be at the helm in 2019; it's only because sane people cannot abide the thought of Comrade Corbychev becoming PM that the Conservatives are still in power...but only just.

'Strong and stable'? They seem to have forgotten that particular mantra. But as anyone who has studied aerodynamics knows, excessive stability is not a good thing when manoeuvre is needed!

Back to defence cuts - it's only because their delivery was so late that the RAF has such a vast number of Chinooks!

roving

True, and no doubt the Treasury will take advantage.

But proposed cuts should never pass without comment about waste. Much of the defence budget can be considered "fixed" commitments. Equipment procurement is an easily targeted variable, except things like PFI payments. This makes the Billions worth of waste in recent years even more critical, exacerbated by the policy and practice that this waste is never investigated.