they've been in power for 70+ years - as an article in the "Times" pointed out a couple of weeks ago it's more accurate to see them as a set of Kings or Emperors than Marxists

In general they haven't been involved in a great deal of foreign adventurism - they are keen on killing defectors etc but they haven't the capacity to export much inteh way of mayhem. There is no international set of supporters - such as Al Quaida or ISIS have

They are paranoid - but then they are accurate - everyone IS out to get them. They see what happened to Saddam and Ghaddafi and they think, quite logically, that if they'd had A bombs maybe they wouldn't have finished up dead. They see 8 countries who believe in MAD and they think they can join that club and be more secure than they are now.

They want to hang on to power all right but I don't think they are as crazy as they are portrayed - strip out the rhetoric and their actions are are generally quite careful and considered

I actually agree with a lot of your post, with the exception of their beyond border follies. SK might disagree given the border incursions and forays deeper into the south.

Wasn't the Japanese Emperor considered to be a god?

The same N.Korean family, for years begged Stalin to allow them to invade the South, when Stalin finally relented the Korean war began.
The fat controller is bent on the same course of action.

WestCoast - agreed - but they have never really been an "exporter of terrorism" as Ghaddafi & Afghanistan and ISIS have been or have indulged in overseas adventures the way Cuba, the US, Russia France (and now Saudi & the Gulf States!) etc have done

They are a very real threat to the RoK (as the RoK is to them) but otherwise they hardly figure

"..Otherwise they hardly figure" ?

They have lobbed missiles over Japan, oh and there's the nuclear arsenal...

I was thinking about their international impact

Historically they threaten the RoK and (maybe Japan) - plus they hold a threat over China that if it all goes bad the Chinese will have several million refugees to deal with

this isn't exactly a major military power &nthey don't seem to want to export Kim-Il-Sung-ism. Rather they want to to be left alone in their own little hell hole to oppress their own people without let or hindrance

China won't be taking any refugees............... you can bet on that.

Arc

They did try to help those nasty Syrians build a rather unpleasant piece of kit though - which could qualify as being internationally threatening.
Until my Sufa-flying friends Yosi and Ravi stopped them.

bit like the pakistanis who helped out various people with nuclear technology... or various countries both western and eastern (including those from Tel Aviv) who cheerfully peddle arms to anyone who will buy them

We all need the money I guess.................

New SK president has been just sworn in. Let's see if any changes take place. He vaguely mentioned that would be interested to soften tension with NK.
When "peacemakers" arrive in such situations, I always have ambivalent feelings because the whole thing depends on both sides. And if the "bad side" uses this "warming" to speed up the development of weapons, all would lose in the end.

On the military side of the coin, I am sure that pre-emptive strike against fat Kim-the-grandson has not taken place because the scenarios were accurately simulated, carefully evaluated and consequences found unacceptable. Current modeling and simulation (M&S) techniques and tools are good enough and way more accurate than trivial math based on the Lanchester's laws. Realistic behavior of hundreds of thousand interacting entities can be simulated. Indeed, characteristics of all the NK weapons are well-known as well as their locations. Behavior and dynamics can also be predicted to a large extent (e.g. processes like "shoot and scoot" or "shoot and hide").

SK military undertake such simulations and training nearly every year with campaigns lasting for about two weeks (!) with involvement of all high-level military staff and many civilian authorities. US DoD M&S experts support them a great deal. Thus, no doubt they all are aware of all the details and potential scenarios. And the fact that those LVC exercises last for 2 weeks testifies (at least indirectly) to difficulties in shutting down NK after the first round of fire exchange.

Again, I am pretty sure that tens of thousands of civilian casualties of SK population near the border is the only limiting factor. If it could be removed somehow, all those Kims would be eliminated shortly along with their names well before they possess NW and BMs. But how to do that? Even if a massive evacuation takes place in the north part of the RoK, NK would consider it as a "casus belli".

Thus, if there is any chance of peaceful measures to work, such lines should be elaborated and tried. Obviously, the best way would be propaganda and arranging more contacts with SK relatives so that NK people would see "how things work" in the South. Such a programme was once opened, but then dropped, AFAIK. And how to educated people in NK without contacts when even the radio receivers there have "hardwired" fixed frequencies and changing them (f) would cost you too much. Difficult....

I was lucky enough to be stationed at a forward RoK marine base back in the 80s. I can't say where, but we could see the occasional tracer or star shell come down from the north. The RoK Marines are a nasty, ready, no BS group of guys. I could easily see a 5:1 or better kill ratio in combat with the north engaging the RoK Marines. And, notwithstanding any cultural, or racial elements the RoK guys really hate the NK.

Furthermore, we are pretty well prepared along the DMZ. Sure, there's going to be some battle damage in the first 48 hours if things go pear shaped, but after the first 2 days of live action, things will be pretty one-sided. If there are carrier assets nearby, the rear guard of the NK forces are going to be in for a very bad couple of days. The civ losses in SK and around the Seoul area will be bad. I won't lie, it will be a mess to clean up, and plenty of casualties. But - I honesty think that the retaliation won't stop until there is nothing left of Pyongyang, and the Wonsan naval base.

Internationally. China won't move. They might bluster, might rattle some phones, kick a ambassador out, but they will NOT pick up arms. The US is by far their biggest trade partner, and lack of access to the US market at this point is unthinkable to the govt of China.

Russia might send some weapons and/or materiel support, but they ain't gonna send any bodies out there. What's the upside for Russia to support NK? It's a foregone conclusion they will lose against the SK and US, so why stick your neck way out?

Back in the day, we didn't worry much about the NK air assets. Their fixed bases, no matter hardened or not are so vulnerable to AWACS intercepts, that anything getting off the ground from NK should be picked up fairly fast, and dealt with by surface assets. If not, we have a host of fixed wing and rotary wing support near by that very little is going to get through the DMZ.

I"m guessing here that things haven't declined much if any since I left, and more than likely things are being reinforced as we speak. The fat boy up there is no idiot when it comes to self preservation. He has to know he's targeted by multiple systems from the south at all times. I would be concerned if we DIDN'T see him out for a few days, indicating he's gone to ground somewhere. That would worry me more than all his fist shaking and finger wagging.

Interesting.
So from what you know - what do you think the casualties in Seoul etc. might be roughly?

Concur with the assessment of the RoK Marines. They take fanatical to a new level.

A country with an unstable megalomaniac leader, who removes anyone who opposes him and threatens the use of nuclear weapons...

North Korea is almost as bad :hmm:

"Internationally. China won't move. They might bluster, might rattle some phones, kick a ambassador out, but they will NOT pick up arms."

That's what everyone thought in Summer 1950............... we knew nothing then and we know precious little now - The Chinese might well intervene to keep the RoK and the US away from their borders - I''m sure the USA would do the same if China was pushing up to the Mexican border.............

Now the Chinese haven't got 100,000 Nationalist Chinese POWs to lead the charges.

There really should be a 'Like' or 'Agree' button.

I'd press both!!

North Korea fires missile days after new South Korea leader pledges dialogue http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-nor...-idUKKBN1890UQ

A welcome present from Fat Wun to the new SK President.