North Korea!
 

With it being arguably the biggest threat faced by the West and potentially most significant use of air power, surprised to see so little speculation about N Korea. The US VP spoke of "options". What might they be?...this is a rumour forum after all.

Christ - with that headline for a minute there Shot I thought the balloon had gone up!
As regards the topic - those who say don't know and...

Perhaps this film best shows what a nuclear war might be like. What do others think?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZhjpHYjZpc

Living here it is a daily reality, and the TV is full of scenarios.


One 'expert' says that up to now DPRK has rattled the nuclear threat for economic reasons. Now their aim seems to be recognition by the US of DPRK's de facto full-fledged membership of the nuclear club.


If the US gives into their demand, however, then S Korea and Japan will have to be allowed to follow suit, something that the US would allegedly never want/allow.

Obviously, quite an uneasy situation with this fanatic country, and no military solution seems to be possible. The choice would be between bad and very bad scenarios.

IMHO, they will never be a deadly threat for US (even if they succeed with ICBM) because deploying enough Aegis systems is quite possible considering relatively small geographical area of NK. But what to do with SK and US bases and troops there since they may be within the radius of artillery/MLRS ? Even now they can reach Seoul...I have doubts that so many Patriots and THAADs would be possible to deploy to counter their massive use. Their ships and subs count, too. Though they will likely be eliminated after the first shot, who knows what might be targets of this shot?

IMHO, the only solution might be transformation of the society by their Southern brothers, so that German reunification scenario would be possible sometime in the future. But SK did not succeed much on that front, so far...

They have spent a great deal of money on their military systems. Where does the money come from ?

They may not be able to reach the US, van, but even a "successfully" intercepted missile would cause havoc in Seoul.

"Those that say don't know...etc". I disagree, that's never been how deterrence works. Throughout the CW, both sides worked hard to publicise and demonstrate readiness. The difficulty is, what threat works against a country that's a total basket-case?

ShotOne,

"Threat faced by the West?"

Surely this is only a threat to South Korea and of mild concern to Japan. The US are also involved by way of their forces stationed in country.
The "West" is not even involved let alone threatened, and to become involved would be to participate in aggressive regime change ala our recent history in the Middle East.

Back on thread - cognisant that I wouldn't have a clue what I am talking about:
Three immediate dangers.
The artillery - not of which all can reach Seoul as Stratfor pointed out - just the rocket assisted shells and the big Stalin organ type rocket launchers. Have to take those out. How many are there? Thousands? Well dug in? Target them first?
The solid fuel rockets. Mobile TELS - next in the firing line - might not be able to respond as quickly as a gun, but not far behind. Do you know where they are and how do you find them?
Then the infantry and armour. Massed onslaught as they head south. How to deal with them?
I actually wonder if the nuclear threat is a huge red herring.
The conventional threat is so much more immediate and dangerous - having walked through those Seoul shopping mall bomb shelters in 2000 as a journo.
It seems to me that the US and SK would need a massive pre-emptive strike in order to contain the NK conventional threat - huge aerial force projection combined with a massive TLAM launch.
They'd need to take out the Norks within an hour or so to limit shelling of Seoul etc.
NK would see it coming a mile off.
A very difficult problem for any battle planner to solve.
Would be interested in the perspectives of anyone who may have more insight than I do.

Decapitation strike against Kim and the military leadership?

In such a hierarchical and dictatorial structure nobody at the lower levels would dare to show any initiative and would await orders from the top.

US Navy SEALs, F-35s to decapitate North Korea's Kim regime - Business Insider

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decapitation_strike

Trump was on TV this Morning saying China is working in concert with the USA, South Korea, and Japan in finding a Diplomatic solution to the problem.

He said he has hope that will succeed but if it does not all other Options are on the Table.

Sounds like a reasoned response and plan so far.

If the wee fat bastard with a horrible haircut is in power a Year from now I will be surprised!

If the Chinese decide there should be Regime Change in North Korea....he is history!

A bit closer to home : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NxkEDpl-40

"The Bedsitting Room" - trailer and full movie.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_...ing_Room_(play)

As this is an aviation forum I had a look at some airfields in NK. They appear to have a number of very basic forward highway and austere runways in the forward area. Further back, and of course imagery from 10-15 years back, the permanent airfields have a significant base loading factor.

There are lines of aircraft close packed on what look like taxy ways and access roads. They do not appear to have either hardened shelters, revetments or spaced parking areas.

If the NK Air Force is anything like my experience with the Chinese Air Force of the nineties then that airfield layout is familiar.

A line of aircraft consists of those that are flown continuously until they break. They then go on to the next ones and when they break they used bits off the first to fix them. When the bits run out they move on to the next batch. The result is that when you move along the line the first are total wrecks which may contribute a spare. They then go on to Xmas trees and eventually you will find aircraft that are being flown. After that there are new ones and as there is no hangerage they will have full cockpit covers, wing cuffs etc.

Obsolete aircraft are towed, or dragged, to another part of the airfield and will stay there for some considerable time because the airfield's fuel supplies are rationed to the number of aircraft on strength. Not withstanding this flying training usually stops around the third week in the month because they have run out of training fuel even when the pilots are averaging only eighty hours a year.

The Chinese Air Force has moved on astronomically from those days because they can now afford it. Vastly improved pay scales, equipment, training and simulators. Whether North Korea can similarly replace quantity with quality is probably doubtful.

Sas - can you just clarify which one you mean?:E

Difficult to map "big Stalin organ type rocket launchers" on real things, but they (the "shorty's" army) do have many self-propelled "Koksans" having range of c.a. 40 km using conventional shells and up to 60 km with new ones (Seoul is closer than 40 km to the border).

https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2014...-1-xl.jpeg.jpg

https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2014...771862a_xl.jpg

These Koksans were used during the Iran-Iraq war long ago and US captured some in Iraq, but how would it help "neutralise" them?

Many batteries of this artillery are lined along the demilitarised zone just waiting for the command. No doubt many are well-hidden. An uneasy task...

Crab, you is a very naughty boy!

It's an option, but yet again one has to wonder what the NoK reaction would be.

Sadly, as with some other States, normal reactions and behavious are unpredictable. But a compliant attitude to gross breaches of UN resolutions is NOT the answer.

It could be argued that engagement of anything entering a published missile engagement zone without prior permission is a legitimate target. The USN has done this before.

Perhaps NK are doing a Saddam and letting everyone think that they have this massive capability. Wonky missiles on display at the weekend gives thought that it's all show and no content.

Not that conventional weapons won't make a mess though.

I wonder what the end goal is here?
Does the South really want unification with the massive financial millstone that the north would be?

That is the $63,999 question which will be occupying analysts in theatre. 25 hrs a day and probably longer in foggy bottom.

But the NK are quite fanatical and many are quite brainwashed, and I wonder if the fanaticism can cancel out the dictatorial structure and everyone goes apesh*t if they here the cake man has been killed.

More simply, maybe the NK issue an order that, if there is a loss of comms for more than 30 mins (e.g.) just fire everything? - so long as it goes South, the job is done?

He isn't going to go down without making a spectacle of it if at all possible.

Question is...have 'they' been able to cultivate an alternative movement within the forces which could assume command given the codeword. It would seem to me that this sort of thing is what you need to save many many lives.

In terms of invasion, I remember reading about the tunnels that the North has fun digging in to the South. Could be worrying if you don't think you have them all mapped.

The vast majority of North Korean airfields have underground facilities. At least two have underground runways.

Do a search for

IMINT & Analysis: Underground Airfields: The DPRK

https://www.wired.com/2010/07/online...und-airfields/

http://freekorea.us/2013/03/08/north....Flghh4wJ.dpbs

Now that the US Government have belatedly found the Carl Vincent group playfully exercising in the Indian Ocean, I wonder if the White House will lose interest in NK:

TEEJ, that would certainly seem the case for the forward ones. On runways, I advocated underground runways 40-50 years ago

The Navy would have to have crazy good intel and a ton of luck to launch a successful operation to take out Cheeseboy.

They're not going to be dropping into a small compound guarded by some chickens, a dog, and a few guys with AKs.

Underground runways come out of holes in the ground. One laser guided bomb can block a hole

You asked the question - the following news article outlines fairly clearly where NK has acquired much of its "legal" wealth.

The article does not, however, indulge in any analysis of just how much money the Govt of NK is making from illegal and criminal activities - such as drug-dealing, sex-trafficking, internet fraud, sales of their weaponry technology to other "rogue states", and a range of criminal activities that would make the Mafia and Camorra proud. NK is believed to be behind the US$80M internet bank fraud carried out on Bangladesh recently.

Bangladesh bank fraud

For the last reasons alone, a regime collapse, and style of government change in NK would be a very worthy aim. However, the last thing I think many would want to see, is regime collapse with only a power vacuum left.
This would more than likely only result in a similar dictatorial regime returning to NK, within a relatively short time.

News.com.au - How has NK managed to build a massive military stockpile?

My thoughts exactly.
It'd be an absolute suicide mission.
And to see why - have a look at this.

Some discussion on Reddit with respect to North Korea if you are interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NorthKoreaNews/

My early training in North Korea came from Biggles, and powerful stuff it was.


Interesting links, tartare, & on the top bunk, above. Thanks.

Interesting comparative stats here.
I'm trying to imagine what a mobilisation for a strike on North Korea might look like.
Presumably you'd have to strike using assets already in theatre, as any attempt to build up a Coalition type force a la GW1 or GW2 would immediately send the signal and invite a pre-emptive attack from the North?
Would one US CSG be enough to bolster the South and US forces already stationed in South Korea?
He's got 1.1m under arms, a lot of tanks and a pretty rag-tag airforce but quite a few missiles and 21,000 artillery pieces...!

and Quantity has a Quality all of its own. Once you have used all your 'ready use' modern equipment it comes down to numbers of people and basic equipment.

If the North strikes quickly, the US will not have time to mobilise its response IMHO. And probably numbers would swing it. Fanatics are not worried about casualties or long term aims and games, just the here and now..............

For sure, we won't be sending any Carriers...............

21,000 artillery pieces at 250 rounds a day each, makes, erm... 5 million, 250 thousand rounds a day.


Need quite a large hangar to store a week's worth, i.e. 37 million shells?

However it seems like the cousins will be, and then some.
The Ronnie Reagan and the Nimitz are on their way - and the Carl Vinnie if it eventually gets there.
Isn't that around three hundred jets - and around six nuclear subs following?
Joli - there was some interesting commentary in some blogs today around the number of misfires from said artillery - they might struggle to maintain that rate of fire by the sounds of things...

Now you see it, ...


From the wind-swept deck of a massive aircraft carrier, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday warned North Korea not to test the resolve of


https://japantoday.com/category/poli...t-order=oldest

I think it would more likely be Korean SF doing int gathering and lazing for stealth aircraft dropping PGMs. B-2s would be able to both bunker busters and 1000lb bombs for softer targets.