I see the Daily Telegraph are being equally daft at roling out "experts"; anyone know who Leslie Hatcher, 71, a former RAF aerobatics instructor is?
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Spot on post BEagle.
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I see the Daily Telegraph are being equally daft at roling out "experts"; anyone know who Leslie Hatcher, 71, a former RAF aerobatics instructor is? I'd have thought practically anyone on this thread could've provided a more sensible analysis than Mr Hatcher. |
Roland
Les Hatcher is a former Lightning pilot who passed through the OCU in 1967 and subsequently flew with 19, 56 and 111 Squadrons |
A reply to Roland Pulfrew.... (did you ever roll and pull through?)
Yes, I knew Les Hatcher when he was a simulator instructor at RAF Coltishall in the 1960's when the first Lightning Mk1s were introduced into RAF service with AFDS & 74(F) Squadron. Les Hatcher flew Hunters & Lightnings. Many years later in 1981 he won the Wright Jubilee Trophy for best display by an RAF pilot, a fiercely contested award for RAF QFI contestants. This is an innovative aerobatic competition in which contestants push their aircraft to aerodynamic limits – but they remain within aerodynamic limits and RAF safety boundaries or face immediate disqualification. |
According to the Telegraph, the venerable Capt 'Winkle' Brown, who was there, is suggesting pilot error. I suppose you'd have to call that 'expert opinion' - if nothing else... As for Mr Sharp on the BBC interview, the least said, the better. FB |
Hello Beagle,
I am also very surprised that Capt. Brown has suggested that pilot error was the cause of this accident. From looking at the various videos of the tragedy is seems to me that the aircraft spent a few seconds in the back-side of the loop when there seemed to be little or no pitching going on. It appears that there was some flap down prior to impact. It is certainly seen to be down over the top of the manoeuvre. Why would he have used flap while inverted when the need is to unload to make the manoeuvre as round as possible? Using flap in the pull out is not only not necessary, it exposes the aircraft to the well-known Hunter flap-trap. His speed at the bottom of the manoeuvre would I guess have been in the order of 360-400kts, more than enough for the flap-trap to have seriously limited elevator authority. The pause in the vertical suggests not only pilot re-adjustment of flight path but also raises the possibility of G-LOC, the insidious nature of which I posted about in the Gnat thread. AH, with whom I had a passing acquaintanceship, is a BA captain. On which fleet I don't know. If he is LH, when did he fly his last trip and was he still jet-lagged/fatigued? One thing I do know is that things which do not mix with flying FJs close to the ground are fatigue, hang-overs, the after effects of minor ailments and medication but the AAIB will no doubt be very interested in all that. |
I'd have thought practically anyone on this thread could've provided a more sensible analysis than Mr Hatcher. |
That's probably an indication of his ingrained depth of knowledge and ability to read the circumstances from the footage he's seen, however, we shall see, as the saying goes. I'm referring to Captian Brown of course!
But surely the point is that any such comment while AH is fighting for his life in hospital utterly uncalled for? |
I have been reading this thread with great interest and amid the alarmist and disingenuous there are some sincere and well thought through comments. The part that I would like to comment on, and ask questions about, is the present regulations and guidance concerning display flying. I do not wish to point a finger at any one or any organisation, but to understand how we got to where we are and where we go in the future.
I have not been involved in the display circuit for many years and so am not conversant with current procedures. Many years ago the majority of airshows, particularly the large ones, were run by the military RAF/RN/Army. Equally, the majority of high performance aircraft were operated and regulated by the military. Over the past 25 years, due to a number of reasons, the organisation, control and participation has drifted into the civilian domain. I was under the impression that a Display Organiser would be required to see participants Display Card in advance of the event. This would include Display Axis, Display Sequence, Minimum Heights, Gate Heights and Speeds. I understand that this is only true at the large events such as RIAT? I am led to understand that some pilots even change their display at the time or even make it up as they display. Also I would have assumed that proof of the pilot’s DA and currency would be provided. I would have thought that it was incumbent for any Organiser to in possession of this information prior to a display being approved? Am I correct in the belief that the minimum requirement is for the pilot to possess a PPL and then gain a DA to be able to perform at an airshow? Am I also correct in the belief that to fly a high performance jet only requires a rudimentary (CAA Approved) workup programme? Once DA is granted, what are the currency requirements for each type of aircraft and how long does a DA on type last? I am asking these questions because we involved in aviation in this country owe it to the public to be true and honest. There is no doubt that we all live in a safer society and expectations are that all is being done to keep us safe. The airshow world does not, in my opinion, stand-up well to close scrutiny at present. Mark Swann’s actions may seem to be an overreaction but I would believe that he knows that improvements have to be made. We must be honest and do a thorough review of ALL regulations concerning airshows and display flying so that we can continue to enjoy our aviation heritage Safely for years to come. |
I'm with Wingswinger here. The Hunter did not appear to be pitching anywhere near enough in the third quarter of the loop. Now there could be many reasons why, including a technical snag or simply pilot distraction looking for the display line or dealing with something in-house. The pitch rate did increase dramatically in the final quarter, but by then it was too late.
Regarding the venue, some of the built-up areas do encroach on the airfield, but apart from having to avoid flying over the college, ie having to extend behind it or tighten inside it, it is certainly no worse than many other venues. Simply bad luck that, if the accident was inevitable, AH crashed onto the A27 and almost parallel to it. It could well be a long list, but I fear the likes of Duxford and Farnborough are now going to have to have a long hard think about their display regulations. |
Flap trap
With regards to comments about flaps and elevator effectiveness. A couple of notches of flap was regularly used during manoeuvers to increase rate of turn/decrease radius of turn. There was no problem in the use of flap during normal manoeuver speeds. The only problem came at M0.9 when the nose would pitch down and you could wreck the elevator controls by continuing to pull. The normal mistake was to have finished manoeuvring or run out of a fight with a notch or two of flap selected. At M0.9 you would soon realise that you still had flap selected!!!!!!!!!!!! Simply relaxing back pressure on the stick and raising the flaps solved the problem.
The accident aircraft would not have been anywhere near this speed. |
It could well be a long list, but I fear the likes of Duxford and Farnborough are now going to have to have a long hard think about their display regulations. |
Air Display administration:
The airshow organisers would have a copy of the following: Pilots Medical Aircraft Insurance Permit to fly/ Airworthiness confirmation. CAA Display Authorisation ***The above is sometimes combined into a display pilots self certification, but even then dates and license numbers are documented. Next of kin POC Display ribbon diagram. (display routine/ notes / pictorial diagram) A DA once issued does not require another check as long as currency is maintained. Minimum 3 displays or practice in the last 30 days. In practise, display pilots mostly lose their qualification towards the end of october after the Duxford end of season display. This includes BBMF whose aircraft enter winter servicing at about that time. A DA may not have been issued on the specific aircraft type so a JP Based DA could be used on the Hunter by a Hunter qualified pilot. This means that for example the RNHF Swordfish display DA may be issued after display in the RNHF flights Chipmunk. Essential as Swordfish winter servicing usually runs late into the spring. IMHO the regulation in place was sufficient. It will be difficult to undo yesterdays regulation and will cost the industry operators / owners business. A Meteor et al in horizontal flight will not justify cost in anyones budget. |
R4H,
Flap trap With regards to comments about flaps and elevator effectiveness. A couple of notches of flap was regularly used during manoeuvers to increase rate of turn/decrease radius of turn. There was no problem in the use of flap during normal manoeuver speeds. The only problem came at M0.9 when the nose would pitch down and you could wreck the elevator controls by continuing to pull. The normal mistake was to have finished manoeuvring or run out of a fight with a notch or two of flap selected. At M0.9 you would soon realise that you still had flap selected!!!!!!!!!!!! Simply relaxing back pressure on the stick and raising the flaps solved the problem. The accident aircraft would not have been anywhere near this speed. |
Wings,
Even one notch of flap could produce a significant nose-down trim change at the speed at which it would have been flying |
This means that for example the RNHF Swordfish display DA may be issued after display in the RNHF flights Chipmunk. Essential as Swordfish winter servicing usually runs late into the spring. |
Expert Opinion
I've been asked to do a piece for ITN re the Shoreham accident on their evening news to be filmed at Brooklands today (25 Aug). Given that I'm in the UAE, I can't do it. If anyone feels they can add some real expert opinion and can make Weybridge by teatime, send me a PM and I'll forward you the contact details.
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BEagle, BEagle SHUN! One step forward, MARCH!
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Hawker Hunter Loss at Shoreham Airshow
If LH is 71, then in 1960 he would have been 16. A Lightning simulator instructor? Something wrong somewhere!
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Originally Posted by Grimweasel
(Post 9094142)
One photo quite clearly shows pilot slumped fwd in seat prior to impact. Could this be g lock where pilot blacked out? Do these older pilots still undergo strict medicals that allow for high G aerobatics? Same with Gnat in my opinion. Both crashed after performing high g manoeuvres. Look at Reds crash few years back. Same thing. Even happens to the medically fit pros.
The wing drop prior to the impact may be due to a late pull, doesn't look like a deliberate control input, but that's pure conjecture on my part. The AAIB report will no doubt be thorough...unlike the BBC's reporting. |
It's interesting that wingswinger mentions medical fitness and combining displaying with jets with a career as an airline pilot. Perhaps flight time limitations need to include display flying, I know this will not be popular. On the other hand the general public and CAA expect the crew of a commercial jet to be rested under flight time limitations, so equally the public should have the same expectations of a display pilot.
Likewise, should display pilots be required to hold or have held a professional pilots qualification (ATPL/RAF wings). I refer of course to the Hurricance that crashed previously at Shoreham, the Pilot (age 49) held a PPL no evidence having been trained in aerobatics, and oddly only a class two medical. Likewise there is a JP3 display pilot in the UK, with 500 hrs on jets, who also claims to have displayed the Hunter T7, again on a PPL, medical unknown. I'm not sure if this was the pilot involved in the Southport/Blackpool JP near accident? Unless I have my facts wrong, I find this a bit worrying as I would expect a 1500 hours of flying fast jets for a display pilot. Likewise in the case of the recent Gnat accident, the Pilot wasclaimed to be ex RAF, but never progressed onto an OCU, again I'm doubtful of his experience to display. The display pilots on the Hunter for this season were aged 51 and 61, and I'm assuming held a class one medical. I just wonder how much is known about G-LOC in older pilots, when it's not unknown in young and very fit RAF pilots, such as in the Red Arrows accident. Without doubt both the Hunter T7 pilots are highly experienced, and much has been made of the pilot in the accident as being an ex-Harrier pilot. But, if he is a BA captain, based on seniority this must have been some time ago (15 years +) since he regular flew fast jets. Finally, I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned on this thread the L29 display accident near Manston, where the aircraft also failed to recover from a loop. The Pilot was 61, he has flown in the Red Arrows but that was I think back in the seventies. I wondering if at the time if this flagged up any warnings, did the AAIB or CAA considered the effect of G on pilots as they become older? |
There's as much ill-informed speculation on here as there is in R & N. For the record, AH is a short haul captain and part-time so neither fatigue nor jet lag are likely causes. Furthermore, being part time meant he had plenty of opportunity to stay current and practised in display flying.
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Unsubstantiated speculation and misinformation:
It seems Mr Sharp thinks that the aircraft was put down on the A27 on purpose as he had lost power instead of going for the airfield.
Originally Posted by Captain Kirk
there is no obvious indication of an engine malfunction
Originally Posted by Captain Kirk
As for waiting for the facts. A complete video of the accident sequence is available as well as a plethora of images - many an accident enquiry has been conducted in its entirety without any such material to draw upon. Yes, there will be other details to consider, but the basic physics of why this ac came into contact with the ground can be deduced by those with adequate experience.
Originally Posted by andrewn
explicitly I'm saying that many people on here can probably make a relatively informed judgement call as to the primary cause of incidents such as this one based on evidence presented and background knowledge and often this indicates "pilot error". In this particular case i am thinking it may not be as straightforward.
Originally Posted by flying anorak
there is no sign of the gas tube I would expect to see had the ejection been initiated.
Originally Posted by grimweasel
One photo quite clearly shows pilot slumped fwd in seat prior to impact. Could this be g lock where pilot blacked out? Do these older pilots still undergo strict medicals that allow for high G aerobatics? Same with Gnat in my opinion. Both crashed after performing high g manoeuvres. Look at Reds crash few years back. Same thing. Even happens to the medically fit pros.
Pilots do have medicals, early fifties is hardly old, but as you say it can even happen to medically fit pros, so the question isn't worth asking unless you're trying to make a point. As for your speculation about the same factor causing three separate incidents, the less said the better. "Same thing"?
Originally Posted by stanwell (also commented by BEagle)
I'm surprised that Eric 'Winkle' Brown was reported as having opined that 'pilot-error' was a major contributor to the crash.
I'd thought he was a bit more astute than that.
Originally Posted by wingswinger
Using flap in the pull out is not only not necessary, it exposes the aircraft to the well-known Hunter flap-trap. His speed at the bottom of the manoeuvre would I guess have been in the order of 360-400kts, more than enough for the flap-trap to have seriously limited elevator authority.
On a personal note, I wish Andy a successful recovery and I hope his family and friends are not unduly affected by some of the unnecessary speculation and I'll-informed comment here and in the media. |
Quote: It could well be a long list, but I fear the likes of Duxford and Farnborough are now going to have to have a long hard think about their display regulations. A very long list, unfortunately. As a somewhat unscientific exercise I overlaid the position of the crash relative to the end of the runway (being unsure of the datum point for the display) over a number of regular airshow venues and in quite a few of them the impact was on a road or buildings. I strongly suspect that the 2016 airshow season will be much smaller than this year, and Duxford and Farnborough in particular will, as you say, be left with much thinking to do. So which airfields have you placed your - to scale - overlay onto in order to predict a much smaller number of airshows next year? FB |
Tiger Mate,
Thanks for trying to answer some of my questions. You state that the following is always available to airshow organisers. Display ribbon diagram. (display routine/ notes / pictorial diagram) IMHO the "read across" DA on different types is too liberal in this day and age. You also state; IMHO the regulation in place was sufficient. It will be difficult to undo yesterdays regulation and will cost the industry operators / owners business. A Meteor et al in horizontal flight will not justify cost in anyones budget. |
jindabyne wrote:
Wings, Even one notch of flap could produce a significant nose-down trim change at the speed at which it would have been flying. If I recall correctly, use of 23 flap in ACM caused an initial nose-down trim change, which in the environment of dynamic ACM was easily overcome by a firm elevator movement. The effect of 23 flap gave an increased turn rate, which was advantageous in getting to a sight-on solution, but the increased drag meant that it was only a temporary advantage? Whereas flying certain manoeuvres with 23 flap was entirely normal for formation aerobatic teams. |
Likewise there is a JP3 display pilot in the UK, with 500 hrs on jets, who also claims to have displayed the Hunter T7, again on a PPL, medical unknown. I'm not sure if this was the pilot involved in the Southport/Blackpool JP near accident? I don't see an issue with PPl's or class 2 medical holders displaying aircraft. I was happy enough to watch Bob Hoover display on an FAA class 3 medical. There are numerous extremely competent DA holders that 'only' have a Private Pilot's Licence. There are numerous ATPL's displaying aircraft with less time in the seat doing aero's than the PPL pilots. This aircraft was a stablemate of the Gnat at North Weald sadly. http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/33/SD2015003.pdf |
Tiger Mate,
Not quite correct on DAs and currency. To display you need to have flown 3 displays or practices in the previous 90 days, one of which must have been on type. All of the single engine jets are category G and a DA is needed for each type and is named on the DA paperwork. Therefore, you cannot display a Hunter on a JP DA. |
Courtney - I didn't say that the video presented all of the facts but it certainly reveals enough to determine the basics; indeed, you very helpfully list most of them, but actually not all. Some things cannot be discounted and any additional evidence is always helpful. However, it is often the case that ALL of the facts are never determined beyond question - and reasonable judgement upon the most likely sequence of events is made by people with relevant experience. Some members of these forums have that experience - most do not. Some of the comments on here are misleading and unhelpful - and unprofessional - but then this is a largely unregulated forum of, mostly, amateurs. So I recommend that you stop attempting to be the arbiter of accident investigation procedures or to police the internet. Have you actually been a part of an accident investigation? Incidentally, I also acknowledged that some engine failures are not obvious, so please do not attempt to score a point with a selective quote.
Trust me when I say that there is enough evidence (and it is evidence) to discount many of the wild (deliberate attempt to land) and not-so-wild (g-loc) theories circulating and to narrow the LIKELY cause, notwithstanding contributory factors which are always harder to determine. What the video does NOT show is valuable too but I'm not going to spell that out for you. The indisputable fact of this accident is that AH (whom I know and respect) ran out of height. How and why will form the basis of the investigation. I know your motives are good Courtney and that you generally post good sense, but your protestations in this instance are not (wholly) justified. Having complete tosh spouted by that clown on the BBC is downright irritating of course, but given the inevitable scrutiny that an accident of this nature will attract, neither is it appropriate to try and draw a cloak of secrecy across the event, as we were once inclined to. Indeed, some early, measured and informed comments to the media might have spared us the 'he was going too fast and had to put it down on the A27' nonsense! I'm not attributing blame - and neither will the AAIB incidentally - I have just discussed some of the more obvious features of this accident - features which may be seen in a different context after a full investigation but which will not themselves change. This is, after all, a forum for discussing aviation related issues... |
Likewise, should display pilots be required to hold or have held a professional pilots qualification (ATPL/RAF wings). P |
Likewise, should display pilots be required to hold or have held a professional pilots qualification (ATPL/RAF wings) Couldn't that mean someone had spent some time flying transport aircraft, which wouldn't be any qualification to display a historic jet fighter? As well as qualifications on paper, there is the issue of currency. How is currency maintained in the civilian world flying similar, ex-military aircraft?* *I am in no way doubting the experience, the currency or the credentials of the pilot in question. |
Indeed, what makes a multi thousand hour tourist tube operator any more qualified than a standard weekend flying PPL holder to fly an ex-mil fast jet?
Nothing. Neither is trained or current or has experience relevant to the type. Maintaining currency isn't a problem, as long as you have the currency (£1500-2500 p/h by a bit of trawling for operating costs of various vintage jets). |
Originally Posted by CM
The clip was heavily edited
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Indeed, Basil!
Captain Kirk, Your subtle change of direction there makes all the difference.
Originally Posted by Captain Kirk
but the basic physics of why this ac came into contact with the ground can be deduced by those with adequate experience.
Originally Posted by Captain Kirk
there is enough evidence (and it is evidence) to discount many of the wild (deliberate attempt to land) and not-so-wild (g-loc) theories circulating and to narrow the LIKELY cause, notwithstanding contributory factors which are always harder to determine
Have you actually been a part of an accident investigation? Edit to add: I agree about "Indeed, some early, measured and informed comments to the media might have spared us the 'he was going too fast and had to put it down on the A27' nonsense!". Someone involved with the show or those investigating it making an official statement may have helped to put some balance into the whole thing. I doubt there could have been many solid answers, but at least a stated position and an explanation of how the recovery and investigation would go forward. Sadly, I suspect the press would still have gone after the "experts" for something more sensational. |
Totally correct, Phil and Bunny. 20k-plus hours in airliners has left me with ZERO recent experience in aeros and I wouldn't dream of attempting even a ferry flight in a pointy thing these days. Last aeros I flew were wobbly indeed in a Yak 15 years ago….not sure I could remember how to even strap into a MB seat. And then there's my meal-tray honed physique…and I have a class 1 med.
I have participated in an accident investigation, and the info obtained from film is amazing, particularly if the characteristics of the cameras used are known. Heat signature, energy levels, control deflections etc are all possible. If there is no recorder aboard or radar ground recording, film is IT. In this case, I believe a professional company was recording the display, and their recording in HD will no doubt be available to the AIB. Godwilling, a recovery of AH will be a blessing in many ways, also. |
Sad and tragic accident.
Haven't read through the previous pages in the thread, but hopefully the pilot will pull through and be able to assist AAIB with their investigation. |
MTM, So which airfields have you placed your - to scale - overlay onto in order to predict a much smaller number of airshows next year? FB But if I have done it, you can be sure that somebody in an insurance office is doing the same, with as little science as I used, and will be using it as a reason to bump up air display premiums by two or three hundred percent for next year. |
To clarify, I think that ideally the 1500 hrs needs to be fast jet or mix of fast jet/rotary as a test pilot.
But previous fast jet experience is degraded with time, possibly. As previously mentioned, the L29 accident, was many years after the pilot had left the Red arrows. There is no easy answer to experience or currency. I think the CAA are going to have to take a holistic approach to all this! Finally as to SEP display aircraft, such as Spitfires, Hurricanes, etc., the CAA might want to adopt the very sensible rules set down by the RAF and BBMF in terms of currency. |
Help in understanding what happened here may come from this operation.
PlanesTV Live | PlanesTV The Shoreham airshow was professionally filmed and streamed live on the web - I would imagine the footage is already available to the AAIB |
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