Yemen.....2
 

Sorry to post this on the Military History Forum, I'm sure this thread will be closed like the last one, but the Iranians have sent warships to the Yemeni coast...

US warns Iran over 'support' for Yemen Houthi rebels - BBC News

Funniest post in years....:D:D

'bout right though!

I think the Secretary of State left out a word there.

It should have read: would not "stand by" if Iran further destabilised the region

A fair criticism of American policy that led to going into Iraq in 2003 is that it has resulted in a destabilization of the region, politically. A further policy decision to support "the Arab spring" can as well be criticized as having further added to the political instability.
Granted, if change is/was to happen, what goes on during the process of change can be a lessening of stability until change has taken effect, or been rejected and the old way returned to.

But as we are not There yet, in any kind of end state, it is unfair for our Secretary to lay too much burden on Iran for its contribution to regional instability. As I've pointed out before: people against going into Iraq, in 2002, like General Zinni who had just stepped down as CENTCOM commander, asserted based on regional experiences that taking down Iraq would be a boon to Iran and its regional plans.

This has come to pass.
President Bush wanted to change the Middle East, starting in Iraq. This he did, for better or worse.
President Obama wanted to change the Middle East, in his support for "the Arab Spring" etc.
This he did, for better or for worse.
The government in Iran wishes to influence change in the Middle east ... for better or for worse. This they are trying to do, or doing.

Good for the goose, and all that. :p

It's a free for all.

Al Qaeda has apparently counted coup in Yemen.
That won't please the Iranians, nor the Saudis.

Many v many.

More things going "boom" in Yemen, this time it appears to be a Scud facility. Rhetorical device noted.

Eventually the Shi'ites (Iran) will have Saudi Arabia surrounded, and with nukes, then watch out!

Bib C

The nations and nation states of Europe spent from about 1789 to 1945 exercising their hobby of intramural homicide with modest input from the rest of the world.

How is it fair that the Islamic world is not free to engage in same, now that industrial methods of warfare are available to them?

With over a billion Muslims world wide, the ten or twenty million who die before they all get sick of the slaughter will hardly be missed. :p (And if that's all who are lost, they can figure to have gotten off cheaply as compared to the Europeans! )

Iran has a Shia network that reaches from Afghanistan to Lebanon once again... more connections building along the Persian Gulf... Yemeni Shias to the south... and Shia connections along the oil rich Caspian Sea.
Suddenly Iran has its mortal enemy Surrounded, and we could see the current unrest spread to the nearly two million Shia that live and work on Saudi Arabia's oil fields very soon. Even though that's exactly what the Saudis — and the Pentagon — hope will never happen.
Not only is Saudi Arabia home to Mecca, Islam's holiest place... but it's also home to the corrupt and U.S.-supported Royal House of Saud, considered an insult to all Islam by the Shia.
For centuries, the Shia have been the underclass. Sunni schools teach that Shiites aren't real Muslims. Shias don't get a seat in government. They can't become judges or even testify in high courts. In Sunni-run Saudi Arabia, Shias and Sunni can't even marry.
There are as many as two million of that Shia underclass in Saudi Arabia, with a 1,354-year-old axe to grind. It's a near-perfect formula for a FULL-ON war. And the fuse is already lit.
For eight years back in the 1980s, Saudi Arabia helped Iraq wage a bloody war against Iran. Along with other Sunni governments, the Saudis even gave Saddam over $47 billion to launch missiles and nerve gas attacks over the Iranian border.
Iran hasn't forgotten or forgiven. Iran has waited to make the Saudis pay — and now they have their chance.
Iran is ready to assert its place in the world. Think Japan or Germany in the 1930s. The threat is there, it's large, and it's not going away anytime soon.
But now, for the first time in history, they see this as their chance to turn the tide.

Bob C

US Carrier Sent to Yemen to Block Iranian Arms

WASHINGTON — The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is moving toward the waters off the coast of Yemen to prepare to intercept any potential Iranian shipments of weapons to the rebels fighting the U.S.-backed government of Yemen, a Pentagon official said Monday. Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said the carrier and ships supporting her had been in the Persian Gulf. They moved to the waters near Yemen because of increased instability there, he said.

The Roosevelt is also tracking a convoy of Iranian ships headed to the Gulf of Aden, said a Defense official speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the Iranian vessels. The Iranians have been supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Pentagon has been tracking the progress of the Iranian ships since last week, the official said.

The Navy is prepared to intercept the ships, according to a second Defense Department official who was not authorized to speak publicly. Moving the Roosevelt is viewed by the Pentagon as significant but not necessarily a prelude to conflict...........

The guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy is accompanying the Roosevelt, the Navy said.

If he wasn't authorized to speak, why did this official open his mouth? :mad:

As to the embargo/quarantine/intercept (used to be called MIO during the 90's in the Red Sea) it has the look of Sharp Fence/Maritime Guard/Sharp Guard of 20 years ago.

But politically, this smells of the Spanish Civil War where some nations fed arms to the sides in a civil war, and other nations (League of) set up an arms embargo. In short, this is growing into a tidy little mess. It's good political fun to see that Iran and the US have more or less the same short term goal in getting ISIS put down, but not the same goal (short or long term) in Yemen.

Note: you don't need a carrier to conduct Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO) but it doesn't hurt to have one. :cool:

The opening moves:
Convoy of Iranian Ships Parked in Arabian Sea, U.S. Officials Say - NBC News

The arena

I found it interesting that Egyptian and Saudi naval vessels are establishing the ... well, what's it going to be called?
Quarantine?
Line in the Ocean?
The media are calling it a "blockade."
The UNSC calls it an Arms Embargo.
EDIT: UNSC resolution 2216.
http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11859.doc.htm
(Full text begins about a third of the way down the page).

To all of you on the high seas involved in this, from whatever nation: thinking of you and hoping the political leadership don't get carried away with their bluff and counter bluff.

Could get grim. :(

You don't have to go all the way back to the Spanish Civil War to find one side being supplied arms and the other subject to an arms embargo, just look at Bosnia - Serbs being armed by Russia and Greece mainly, Croats by the Germans, and the Muslims/ Bosniaks under a UN embargo.

Fair point. One of the reasons I chose the Spanish Civil War model was to do with it being a prelude to the global war that followed it. The action in FY seems to have precluded a follow on large fight. (Alternate view: just delayed it, awaiting Vlad and his latest efforts to restore his version of the good old days).

This thing in Yemen may be like the Spanish example in setting up something larger as a follow on if this proxy fight within Yemen gets certain sides going after each other in places further afield.
Hopefully, it won't.

Comparing past events and convolving them onto present situations is tricky and potentially dangerous.

Every culture needs to go though the social evolutionary process, but there is no golden rule to say it will work out as situation x. And the process where past cultural changes where influenced by others has changed as well.

Effectively yo have a culture that from some standpoints is centuries behind, but have access to modern weapons. The potential to have an outcome that may not be favorable to the west is several decades is to high.

What to call it? "Cordon Sanitaire" seems appropriate..... :hmm:

I note this language in the news, for what it's worth: an Iranian convoy is under constant surveillance by U.S. Navy warplanes and is believed to be loaded with weapons for rebels based in Yemen.

So nobody knows, however, but there may be probable cause since the two freighters are being accompanied by five naval frigates.

The news also reports that aircraft are keeping the flotilla under observation.

It will come to the test when the Egyptian and Saudi ships have to make a stand or let them pass.

Local paper is a good read.
 

Yemen Times


I quite like the Yemen Times, brave impartial journalists if nothing else.

Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera added to list of banned websites | Yemen Times
Interesting to see how the information war is shaping up in this multi-faceted mess.

From my estimates, in a day or two the "day of decision" will come at sea when the two Iranian freighters are close enough to the Saudi and Egyptian picket for something to give.
Aside: I wonder if the Fifth Fleet can account for all of the Iranian submarines in the OOB. Were I the Iranian naval commander, I'd ask for a sub to go along with the flotilla escorting the freighters ... it's good to have a hole card.

Not sure how much that maritime stuff influences what's going on shoreside, near term ...

As this is a rumors and news site:

Within the last quarter of an hour, word is filtering out (via Twistter) that the convoy is turning about and heading back to Iran.

Mike Walker @New_Narrative :Traci Lee @traciglee
Probably best to check back in a few hours, but perhaps things have been defused for the time being.

#BREAKING: Iranian civilian plane defies no-fly zone, attempts to land in Sanaa
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) April 28, 2015

#BREAKING: Coalition: Sanaa airport runway bombed to prevent Iranian plane which defied the no fly zone from landing
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) April 28, 2015

Yemen conflict: Saudi-led jets destroy Sanaa airport runway; fighting kills at least 30 people

Jets from a Saudi-led alliance have destroyed the runway of Yemen's Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing there, Saudi Arabia said, as fighting across the country killed at least 30 people........ Air force planes from the Saudi-led coalition bombed the runway of the country's main airport to stop an Iranian flight landing, officials from both sides said, in a move that will further complicate humanitarian efforts to fly urgently needed aid into Yemen.

Saudi-led coalition spokesman Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri said the airport was bombed after an Iranian aircraft refused to coordinate with the coalition and the pilot ignored orders to turn back. He said the bombing of the runway made it unusable for planned aid flights.

Airport officials said the strikes set a civilian aircraft operated by Yemeni Felix Airways ablaze, adding that a cargo plane was also hit. An official at the Yemeni civil aviation authority said the runway was targeted by 20 sorties that destroyed both the take-off and landing runways.

Iranian state news agency IRNA confirmed the incident, and said the pilots had ignored "illegal" warnings from Saudi jets to turn back before the runway was bombed. IRNA said the plane was carrying humanitarian aid to Sanaa. The Houthis' al-Masirah television station said the plane was scheduled to carry wounded victims of the Saudi-led strikes for treatment in Iran.

A civil aviation official said the airport at the Red Sea city of Hodeidah had also been bombed, but appeared to be still operational. Officials said aid flights would be diverted to Hodeidah until Sanaa airport is repaired.......

Uh, nowhere closer to treat them? :confused:

This is getting messier by the day.

Well, you have to admire their ability to think out of the box.....

It probably would not occur to us to destroy the runaway to enforce a no fly zone.

Iranians Fire Warning Shots at Ship In Gulf

.......Another possible maritime showdown emerged this week.

The United States has demanded that an Iranian aid ship bound for Yemen change course and head towards Djibouti, where the United Nations is overseeing humanitarian efforts for the Yemen conflict. But a senior Iranian commander rejected the request and warned the Americans that "a fire might start" if there were attempts to block Tehran's aid efforts.

Although Iran has said it would provide a naval escort for the aid ship, so far the vessel has no warships guarding it. The Iranian cargo ship is currently heading southwest off the coast of Oman, Warren said.......

Iranian ship carries aid and activists into waters off Yemen

May 17: An Iranian cargo ship carrying aid and activists crossed into the Gulf of Aden on Sunday and will reach Yemen's Hodaida port on May 21, Iranian media reported, in a challenge to Saudi-led naval forces controlling Yemeni waters. A coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia has imposed searches on all ships trying to enter Yemen in a bid to prevent weapons being smuggled to the Iran-allied Houthi rebel group which controls much of the country, including Hodaida.

Iranian officials last week said they would not allow the Saudi-led forces to inspect the Iran Shahed, which is under military escort, and warned of war if the cargo ship was attacked.

"After entering the Gulf of Aden today... we expect to be in the confines of Hodaida port early on May 21," the Iran Shahed's captain, Massoud Ghazi Mirsaid, was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA.

Iran says the ship is carrying food aid, medical volunteers and seven Western activists, one of whom was identified by the Tasnim news agency as Caleb Maupin, a native of Ohio who has campaigned against war and the U.S. financial system. "If they prevent (the ship from docking), which is likely, this is a major human rights violation," Tasnim quoted Maupin as saying in an interview on board the ship.

The presence of foreign activists has previously complicated plans to intercept ships carrying them. Israel faced criticism in 2010 when its forces raided a Gaza-bound flotilla, resulting in the deaths of nine Turkish activists on board. A 10th Turk died in May 2014 from wounds sustained in the incident. Maupin also criticised a plea from his native United States that Iran redirect the ship to Djibouti, where the United Nations is coordinating relief efforts.

Reuters ship tracking data showed the Iran Shahed located off the coast of eastern Yemen at 1110 GMT, heading west towards the Bab el-Mandeb strait, one of the world's busiest oil shipping routes.......

And so it begins again, now with that joyful cargo of activists added.
Caleb Maupin - Radical Journalist & Political Analyst
If you are interested in this graduate of a liberal arts school in Ohio
Baldwin-Wallace College here is some info.

Saw some other news from Yemen, apparently SecState Kerry has come out in support of the resumption of air strikes among the Saudi led coalition.

Hmm, reminiscent of the NATO whacking of Serb air defense units in Bosnia, 20 years ago or so.

UAE Mirage Fighter Jet Crashes Over Yemen

DUBAI — A United Arab Emirates fighter jet has crashed in the southern port city of Aden during a combat operation in the early morning hours of Monday, killing two pilots.

A statement from the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen confirmed that the fighter jet was one of the French-made Dassault Mirage 2000-9s participating in the operations. The UAE operates alongside the Mirage 2000-9s F-16 block 60s in their Operation Restoring Hope missions over Yemen as well as other logistical and transport aircraft.

"The Supreme Command of the Armed Forces announced today that a fighter jet taking part in the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia ... in Yemen was missing," a statement on the official WAM news agency said Monday afternoon, without giving further details. According to a statement released by the coalition, the Mirage crashed “due to a technical fault.”

According to the UAE armed forces, clashes last night and earlier this morning took place in Aden between security forces and al-Qaida militants in the southern capital.

A government official told AFP that a coalition jet had carried out an air raid against the home of a local ISIS commander at dawn, killing the target’s 18-year-old son, near the plane crash site. Coalition Apache helicopters were also taking part in the fighting on Monday, security officials said. “We saw Apache helicopters fire rockets and open machine gun fire at al-Qaida militants” in the al-Mansoura district of Aden, one witness told the news agency.

This is the first known case of a UAE jet from the coalition crashing since the campaign began in March last year. In December, a Bahraini F-16 crashed in Saudi Arabia due to a "technical error." The pilot was saved and the plane's wreckage was found.

It was the second coalition jet to crash after a Moroccan warplane went down during a mission over Yemen in May. Its pilot was later found dead and his body was returned home. The coalition said at the time that the crash had been caused by a technical fault or human error, and it denied rebel claims that they downed the plane.

Rebels sink UAE warship (ex-USN) HSV-2 Swift off Yemen coast.

https://www.rt.com/news/361339-uae-w...-attack-yemen/




https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HSV-2_Swift

Pentagon believes attack on Saudi frigate meant for US warship

The Iranian-backed suicide attack targeting a Saudi frigate off the coast of Yemen on Monday may have been meant for an American warship, two defense officials told Fox News.

The incident in question occurred in the southern Red Sea and was carried out by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Two Saudi sailors were killed and three were wounded. At first the ship was thought to have been struck by a missile.But based on new analysis of a video showing the attack, American intelligence officials now believe this was, in fact, a suicide bomber whose small boat rammed the side of the Saudi vessel.

In the audio heard on the video, a voice narrating the attack shouts in Arabic, "Allahu akbar [God is great], death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews and victory for Islam."

U.S. defense analysts believe those behind the attack either thought the bomber was striking an American warship or that this was a “dress rehearsal” similar to the attack on the USS Cole, according to one official......

One thing holds true....there's Submarines and Targets.

Proved to be a game changer in more than a few dust ups of varying sizes.

UAE nuclear power plant targeted by Houthis?
Yemen's Houthis report missile launched towards UAE | News | Al Jazeera


And from the UAE and Saudi Arabian viewpoint: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...ear-plant.html


Even the fact that people are actually threatening this is appalling. A new and very dangerous step for humanity.

Yemen is like Afghanistan - easy to get into a war there and bloody awful to get out in one piece

I'm not really sure who wants what - the Houthis want power but are (apparently) totally incompetent, the Saudis want a client state preferably run by Sunnis, and Iran just enjoys meddling..............

Looks like an optimism about intercept of a 55 y.o. missile by a Saudi-operated Patriot was a bit premature.

Or maybe these are just fake news from NYT to prick and laugh at Trump?

From: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e-defense.html

“Our system knocked the missile out of the air,” President Trump said the next day from Air Force One en route to Japan, one of the 14 countries that use the system. “That’s how good we are. Nobody makes what we make, and now we’re selling it all over the world.”
But an analysis of photos and videos of the strike posted to social media suggests that story may be wrong.

Instead, evidence analyzed by a research team of missile experts appears to show the missile’s warhead flew unimpeded over Saudi defenses and nearly hit its target, Riyadh’s airport. The warhead detonated so close to the domestic terminal that customers jumped out of their seats.

well Ali Abdullah Saleh is now gone so that's one of the meddlers out of the game

I really despair about it TBH - no-one is in the right here - it's just people meddling for the sake of it.

At least the West and Russia have stayed out so far

You may have put your finger on the problem A_Van\ and the other question is "how well did the cueing and early warning work?"

probably all looking the other way - West to Israel, North to Iran & Qatar, East to PRK

Harry, when's the last time you worked with a ballistic missile defense systems? (my last time was in 2004).

Yes, I was meaning that "hi-tech stuff in hands of ....(well, put your own word there) is nothing but a piece of metal". Well applicable to Russian arms exported to that region, too.

"Harry, when's the last time you worked with a ballistic missile defense systems? (my last time was in 2004)"

I wasn't being serious..........................................

Saudi-led coalition warplane crashes in Yemen: Saudi statement

DUBAI (Reuters) - A warplane from Saudi Arabia’s air forces fighting the Houthi movement in Yemen crashed on Sunday due to a technical fault while conducting military operations, a statement carried by the Saudi state news agency SPA said.

The Houthi armed movement’s TV channel al-Massirah earlier said Houthi forces had shot down the fighter in Saada province, adding it was a Britain-made Tornado.

The Saudi statement said the plane had crashed in the war zone. It said the Saudi-led coalition conducted a special operation to evacuate the two pilots who survived the crash.