Yemen.....2
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Yemen.....2
Sorry to post this on the Military History Forum, I'm sure this thread will be closed like the last one, but the Iranians have sent warships to the Yemeni coast...
US warns Iran over 'support' for Yemen Houthi rebels - BBC News
US warns Iran over 'support' for Yemen Houthi rebels - BBC News
He said the US would support any state in the Middle East that felt threatened by Iran, and would not "stand by" if Iran destabilised the region.
It should have read: would not "stand by" if Iran further destabilised the region
A fair criticism of American policy that led to going into Iraq in 2003 is that it has resulted in a destabilization of the region, politically. A further policy decision to support "the Arab spring" can as well be criticized as having further added to the political instability.
Granted, if change is/was to happen, what goes on during the process of change can be a lessening of stability until change has taken effect, or been rejected and the old way returned to.
But as we are not There yet, in any kind of end state, it is unfair for our Secretary to lay too much burden on Iran for its contribution to regional instability. As I've pointed out before: people against going into Iraq, in 2002, like General Zinni who had just stepped down as CENTCOM commander, asserted based on regional experiences that taking down Iraq would be a boon to Iran and its regional plans.
This has come to pass.
President Bush wanted to change the Middle East, starting in Iraq. This he did, for better or worse.
President Obama wanted to change the Middle East, in his support for "the Arab Spring" etc.
This he did, for better or for worse.
The government in Iran wishes to influence change in the Middle east ... for better or for worse. This they are trying to do, or doing.
Good for the goose, and all that.
It's a free for all.
Al Qaeda has apparently counted coup in Yemen.
That won't please the Iranians, nor the Saudis.
Many v many.
Al Qaeda has apparently counted coup in Yemen.
That won't please the Iranians, nor the Saudis.
Many v many.
More things going "boom" in Yemen, this time it appears to be a Scud facility.
Rhetorical device noted.
(Reuters) - An air strike on a Scud missile base in the Yemeni capital Sanaa caused a big explosion that blew out windows in homes, killing seven civilians and wounding dozens, medical sources told Reuters.
Yemen's state news agency Saba, run by the Houthi movement which controls the capital, said the bombing resulted in "dozens of martyrs and hundreds of wounded," citing a government official.
Yemen's state news agency Saba, run by the Houthi movement which controls the capital, said the bombing resulted in "dozens of martyrs and hundreds of wounded," citing a government official.
How is it fair that the Islamic world is not free to engage in same, now that industrial methods of warfare are available to them?
With over a billion Muslims world wide, the ten or twenty million who die before they all get sick of the slaughter will hardly be missed.
(And if that's all who are lost, they can figure to have gotten off cheaply as compared to the Europeans! )
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Iran has a Shia network that reaches from Afghanistan to Lebanon once again... more connections building along the Persian Gulf... Yemeni Shias to the south... and Shia connections along the oil rich Caspian Sea.
Suddenly Iran has its mortal enemy Surrounded, and we could see the current unrest spread to the nearly two million Shia that live and work on Saudi Arabia's oil fields very soon. Even though that's exactly what the Saudis — and the Pentagon — hope will never happen.
Not only is Saudi Arabia home to Mecca, Islam's holiest place... but it's also home to the corrupt and U.S.-supported Royal House of Saud, considered an insult to all Islam by the Shia.
For centuries, the Shia have been the underclass. Sunni schools teach that Shiites aren't real Muslims. Shias don't get a seat in government. They can't become judges or even testify in high courts. In Sunni-run Saudi Arabia, Shias and Sunni can't even marry.
There are as many as two million of that Shia underclass in Saudi Arabia, with a 1,354-year-old axe to grind. It's a near-perfect formula for a FULL-ON war. And the fuse is already lit.
For eight years back in the 1980s, Saudi Arabia helped Iraq wage a bloody war against Iran. Along with other Sunni governments, the Saudis even gave Saddam over $47 billion to launch missiles and nerve gas attacks over the Iranian border.
Iran hasn't forgotten or forgiven. Iran has waited to make the Saudis pay — and now they have their chance.
Iran is ready to assert its place in the world. Think Japan or Germany in the 1930s. The threat is there, it's large, and it's not going away anytime soon.
But now, for the first time in history, they see this as their chance to turn the tide.
Bob C
Suddenly Iran has its mortal enemy Surrounded, and we could see the current unrest spread to the nearly two million Shia that live and work on Saudi Arabia's oil fields very soon. Even though that's exactly what the Saudis — and the Pentagon — hope will never happen.
Not only is Saudi Arabia home to Mecca, Islam's holiest place... but it's also home to the corrupt and U.S.-supported Royal House of Saud, considered an insult to all Islam by the Shia.
For centuries, the Shia have been the underclass. Sunni schools teach that Shiites aren't real Muslims. Shias don't get a seat in government. They can't become judges or even testify in high courts. In Sunni-run Saudi Arabia, Shias and Sunni can't even marry.
There are as many as two million of that Shia underclass in Saudi Arabia, with a 1,354-year-old axe to grind. It's a near-perfect formula for a FULL-ON war. And the fuse is already lit.
For eight years back in the 1980s, Saudi Arabia helped Iraq wage a bloody war against Iran. Along with other Sunni governments, the Saudis even gave Saddam over $47 billion to launch missiles and nerve gas attacks over the Iranian border.
Iran hasn't forgotten or forgiven. Iran has waited to make the Saudis pay — and now they have their chance.
Iran is ready to assert its place in the world. Think Japan or Germany in the 1930s. The threat is there, it's large, and it's not going away anytime soon.
But now, for the first time in history, they see this as their chance to turn the tide.
Bob C
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
US Carrier Sent to Yemen to Block Iranian Arms
WASHINGTON — The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is moving toward the waters off the coast of Yemen to prepare to intercept any potential Iranian shipments of weapons to the rebels fighting the U.S.-backed government of Yemen, a Pentagon official said Monday. Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said the carrier and ships supporting her had been in the Persian Gulf. They moved to the waters near Yemen because of increased instability there, he said.
The Roosevelt is also tracking a convoy of Iranian ships headed to the Gulf of Aden, said a Defense official speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the Iranian vessels. The Iranians have been supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Pentagon has been tracking the progress of the Iranian ships since last week, the official said.
The Navy is prepared to intercept the ships, according to a second Defense Department official who was not authorized to speak publicly. Moving the Roosevelt is viewed by the Pentagon as significant but not necessarily a prelude to conflict...........
The guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy is accompanying the Roosevelt, the Navy said.
WASHINGTON — The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is moving toward the waters off the coast of Yemen to prepare to intercept any potential Iranian shipments of weapons to the rebels fighting the U.S.-backed government of Yemen, a Pentagon official said Monday. Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said the carrier and ships supporting her had been in the Persian Gulf. They moved to the waters near Yemen because of increased instability there, he said.
The Roosevelt is also tracking a convoy of Iranian ships headed to the Gulf of Aden, said a Defense official speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the Iranian vessels. The Iranians have been supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Pentagon has been tracking the progress of the Iranian ships since last week, the official said.
The Navy is prepared to intercept the ships, according to a second Defense Department official who was not authorized to speak publicly. Moving the Roosevelt is viewed by the Pentagon as significant but not necessarily a prelude to conflict...........
The guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy is accompanying the Roosevelt, the Navy said.
The Roosevelt is also tracking a convoy of Iranian ships headed to the Gulf of Aden, said a Defense official speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the Iranian vessels
As to the embargo/quarantine/intercept (used to be called MIO during the 90's in the Red Sea) it has the look of Sharp Fence/Maritime Guard/Sharp Guard of 20 years ago.
But politically, this smells of the Spanish Civil War where some nations fed arms to the sides in a civil war, and other nations (League of) set up an arms embargo. In short, this is growing into a tidy little mess. It's good political fun to see that Iran and the US have more or less the same short term goal in getting ISIS put down, but not the same goal (short or long term) in Yemen.
Note: you don't need a carrier to conduct Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO) but it doesn't hurt to have one.
The Iranian convey is parked south-southeast of the Yemeni border with Oman, the U.S. officials said. Saudi and Egyptian warships are positioned to the southwest of the convoy, forming a blockade of the Gulf of Aden and the port city of Aden.
Convoy of Iranian Ships Parked in Arabian Sea, U.S. Officials Say - NBC News
The arena
I found it interesting that Egyptian and Saudi naval vessels are establishing the ... well, what's it going to be called?
Quarantine?
Line in the Ocean?
The media are calling it a "blockade."
The UNSC calls it an Arms Embargo.
EDIT: UNSC resolution 2216.
http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11859.doc.htm
(Full text begins about a third of the way down the page).
To all of you on the high seas involved in this, from whatever nation: thinking of you and hoping the political leadership don't get carried away with their bluff and counter bluff.
Could get grim.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 21st Apr 2015 at 17:08.
You don't have to go all the way back to the Spanish Civil War to find one side being supplied arms and the other subject to an arms embargo, just look at Bosnia - Serbs being armed by Russia and Greece mainly, Croats by the Germans, and the Muslims/ Bosniaks under a UN embargo.
You don't have to go all the way back to the Spanish Civil War to find one side being supplied arms and the other subject to an arms embargo, just look at Bosnia - Serbs being armed by Russia and Greece mainly, Croats by the Germans, and the Muslims/ Bosniaks under a UN embargo.
This thing in Yemen may be like the Spanish example in setting up something larger as a follow on if this proxy fight within Yemen gets certain sides going after each other in places further afield.
Hopefully, it won't.
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The nations and nation states of Europe spent from about 1789 to 1945 exercising their hobby of intramural homicide with modest input from the rest of the world.
Every culture needs to go though the social evolutionary process, but there is no golden rule to say it will work out as situation x. And the process where past cultural changes where influenced by others has changed as well.
Effectively yo have a culture that from some standpoints is centuries behind, but have access to modern weapons. The potential to have an outcome that may not be favorable to the west is several decades is to high.
I note this language in the news, for what it's worth: an Iranian convoy is under constant surveillance by U.S. Navy warplanes and is believed to be loaded with weapons for rebels based in Yemen.
So nobody knows, however, but there may be probable cause since the two freighters are being accompanied by five naval frigates.
The news also reports that aircraft are keeping the flotilla under observation.
It will come to the test when the Egyptian and Saudi ships have to make a stand or let them pass.
So nobody knows, however, but there may be probable cause since the two freighters are being accompanied by five naval frigates.
The news also reports that aircraft are keeping the flotilla under observation.
It will come to the test when the Egyptian and Saudi ships have to make a stand or let them pass.
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Local paper is a good read.
*Yemen Times
I quite like the Yemen Times, brave impartial journalists if nothing else.
I quite like the Yemen Times, brave impartial journalists if nothing else.
Interesting to see how the information war is shaping up in this multi-faceted mess.
From my estimates, in a day or two the "day of decision" will come at sea when the two Iranian freighters are close enough to the Saudi and Egyptian picket for something to give.
Aside: I wonder if the Fifth Fleet can account for all of the Iranian submarines in the OOB. Were I the Iranian naval commander, I'd ask for a sub to go along with the flotilla escorting the freighters ... it's good to have a hole card.
Not sure how much that maritime stuff influences what's going on shoreside, near term ...
As this is a rumors and news site:
Within the last quarter of an hour, word is filtering out (via Twistter) that the convoy is turning about and heading back to Iran.
Mike Walker @New_Narrative :
Traci Lee @traciglee
Probably best to check back in a few hours, but perhaps things have been defused for the time being.
Within the last quarter of an hour, word is filtering out (via Twistter) that the convoy is turning about and heading back to Iran.
Mike Walker @New_Narrative :
"NBC reporting the Iranian convoy off Yemen has turned back toward Iran"
Iranian convoy believed to be carrying weapons destined for Houthi rebels in Yemen have turned back toward Iran. -@JimMiklaszewski