Ukraine Crisis 2014
 

Might as well start a thread, as its going to be the story of the year as far as murder, death and senseless killing go.
Am I correct that, in a nutshell the basis of the conflict is that the western half of the Ukraine wish to move towards a unification with the EU, whilst the eastern half is far more pro Russia and wishes to resist any split or movement towards a pro EU engagement?


Today 20th February 2014 what are the implications for the UK in any sort of involvement?


My 2 cents worth saloon bar guess is the country will dissolve into civil war and chaos if it hasn't already done so.
I truly pray we do not become involved in any way or form.

There's a lot of pressure from Putin to force the Ukraine to stick with Russia.
I don't think we should doubt for a second he will help the eastern contingent in any way he sees fit if not already actively involved.

We should not even consider poking our nose in, even if the EU want to flex their muscles. It would be a proxy conflict with Russia.

From my point of view,
- The Ukrainian citizens want to be part of the EU.
- Their govt says no.
- Then Ukrainian citizens then stand up to their govt in protest.
- The govt then try to quash the citizens protests.

Implications for the UK? Isn't the Ukraine where we import most of our gas from? Like a crack addict needing their next fix, I could imagine UK politicians taking more interest if the gas supply is affected.

Much UK gas comes from Russia. Ukraine seeks the same supply and most pipelines run through Ukraine; however, now the UK has much more by way of liquid import facilities, it's not as crucial as it was.

The only angle for future gas supplies would be if the protestors take power, get upset and close the pipelines. The President and Russia are close. Complain too loudly and they could cut present supplies, but that's not as big a deal as it was ten years ago.

It's been coming for months, it's not a surprise. We washed our hands of it months ago. Everything is now posturing.

Streetwise Professor has been monitoring. Here are a few of his blog posts, see his site for the full saga.

November 23rd: Ukraine & Russia. Sovok Players. Sovok Tactics. Sovok Results. No Surprises Here.

January 31st: Ukraine: (Relative) Calm Before the Storm

February 6th: Look Beyond the F-Bomb: An Ominous Harbinger of Things to Come in Ukraine.

February 17th: Poor Ukraine: So Close to Putin, So Far From God

I seem to recall that revolutions in Europe, the 1848 series, didn't go too well in the short term due to the reaction, but the low level ripple effects ended up catching up a bit of momentum later on.

Perhaps it will be thuswise for Ukraine.

Perhaps not.

Makes one reassess all the new NATO partners and commitments taken on since the end of the Cold War.

Lots of baggage to consider.

Hmm, I don't really see that as a feasible position; we could stand by and watch as a country that borders the European Union descends into mayhem and all the many, many implications that has on energy security, trade & investment, contagion (to Belarus?) etc. etc. But do you think any EU action to try and stop the opposition getting their clock's cleaned wouldn't involve us?...I certainly don't.

My big worry instead, is do we (Europe) still have the capacity to act effectively, without the aid of the United States?...it could all end very embarrassingly for Europe and very triumphantly for Putin, IMHO. I'm pretty certain one of the big lessons from the former Yugoslavia was that Europe needed to take more responsibility for its own defence capabilities. Even then we needed good ol' Uncle Sam, and our capabilities as a continent are far diminished from then!!

Why when I watch this on the news do I have visions of Nicolae Ceaușescu attempting to flee his country in a helicopter.
Shooting ones own people is never a good thing and will come back to haunt Viktor Yanukovych, even if he had no part in it.

You would think that God would give us a break now and again. If it's not Syria it's Ukraine, if it's not Ukraine it's CAR. I wish we could have maybe a year of time out then get back on with it.

I'm not surprised though, they did this just too host a football competition

Neighborhood Cats / Archives

Ukraine, the European Football Championship and the mass murders of stray animals - Occupy for Animals!

And in other news, 400 and odd Nepalese workers have already been killed building Qatar's World Cup stadiums.

Time for Europe to lead on this one.....might as well because Welfare Man shall be bringing up the rear as usual.

More reminiscent of Hungary 1956.

That's exactly my point Bastardeaux, we (Europe) do not have that capacity. We would be heading into indirect, leading to direct, conflict with Russia. Without the support of the US, no chance. Putin does not strike me as someone to back down in the face of threats or (God forbid) sanctions. He's far too MACHO for that.

Seems like President Yanukovych has been thinking about Ceausescu as well.

BBC News - Ukrainian President Yanukovych agrees early election

Please don't invite us to this Party.....we have seen Putin's ability to outsmart Welfare Man by what happened in Syria....so no good use getting us involved.

In 2004 NATO and Ukraine were in very close negotiations over eventual membership. Then Russian Energy Coercion started. Russia has made it quite clear that it does not want a NATO member on their borders.

The Dead Hand of Russian Imperialism is all over this one; The EU relies very heavily on Ukrainian grain (as does Russia) indeed, much of their agrarian agriculture is Western owned. Being even closer to Europe is seen as a threat to Russia and in Moscow NATO and EU are regarded as synonymous.

So, what does the West do regarding the riots? Unless these develop into a widespread civil war, there is no direct role for the EU or NATO; however, if the Ukrainian army decides to defect to the protestors or refuses to support the Government, there is the possibility of Russian 'peacekeeping' intervention. Read: occupation. What does the West do then?

If a civil war does develop - and rioting has spread to other population centres - perhaps an EU sponsored Observer Mission could be proposed, backed up by the promise of PKO forces if conditions continue to deteriorate. Think Kosovo, June 1999. Imagine how different Balkans politics would be now if the Russian intervention at Pristina Airport had not be blocked, using, it seems, James Blunt and his squadron?

Ukraine is a country divided. This has been brewing ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian independence.

http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r...ps4960b57b.jpg
http://www.washingtonpost.com

Protests in Ukraine are not pro-EU (as it is written in most of international news agencies). The disruption of the association agreement with the European Union in November was only cause for local rallies. But after a peaceful student protest was violently dispersed by the 'Berkut' [special police] in Kyiv on Nov. 30, angry people took to the central square of the capital.

I know western forces have been much diminished since the height of the Cold War, but Russia's have been even more so. Add the fact that there's a helluva lot more countries in NATO than there were then. Personally if it ever came to a fight I think it would be pretty one-sided. One can imagine the Russian forces defecting en-masse, now they know all about our way of life, many of them having tasted it.

Are you saying NATO with the USA? Big assumption, as SASless says, they may not come to the party. Are you saying NATO or EU, not quite the same. As for Russian defectors, they might not find it too easy to jump the fence if the time comes.

Words fail me... Graphic

BBC News implies resolution.

Signing agreements, new elections etc.

No Harriers, no Nimrods, no Carriers, no Cluster Bombs. The British armed forces now barely visible to the naked eye. A political leadership willing to spend over £25,000,000,000 per year on "foreign aid" and the so called "EU", and a Prime Minister who regards "gay marriage" as more important that national defence.
Mr Putin must be pissing himself laughing at the prospect of that sanctimonious hypocritical ******-up has-been of a country "intervening".
GET REAL.

Well, we've still got a bigger GDP than Russia & their industrial base is shot - as Max Hastings once wrote, it couldn't even build a toaster you'd want to buy. In fact, pretty much all they are good for is weapons, natural gas, and vodka.

Not sure where your arguments heading, stendec. Are you seriously suggesting we ought to intervene militarily in Ukraine? With or without the aircraft you list, this would be a total disaster and also grabbed as a pretext to discredit the protestors as agents of foreign powers.

dead_pan,

Budem zdorovy!

Weapons, natural gas and vodka - it's rural appalachia on steroids.
But where's the meth?

dead_pan, don't forget the Russian space programme. They are the only ones with manned launch capability. The Chinese have the ability but are new to the game. So for now Russia are the leaders of the world in the field of space exploration.


As for any talk of western military intervention, not a chance! The risks of World War 3 are to high.


I still think the logical thing here is to see a partition. Two new nations, ''Western Ukraine'' joining the EU and ''Eastern Ukraine'' going with Russia. It should keep the majority of Ukrainians happy with pro Russian east going east and the pro European west going west.

Think Stendec is right to state the obvious, as a conventional fighting nation we are now down to nothing of credible worth. The UK military is no longer in any position to act in any real role abroad. Our EU allies even less so.
One of the only good things of the day is our own prime minister, defence minister et al have been entirely absent from making any comments or trying to wade in and sound statesmanlike.
Putin and the world he represents seems a very ugly, brutal, bullying cynical one and I hope this was noted by at least some of the UK population.

Hangarshuffle, most of my Russian friends like Putin, they think he is great.
On the whole I don't see he or his government are any worse than ours, at the end of the day its the US, UK and now France also who tend to mostly go around the world invading and bombing places, toppling governments and regimes as we please. Plus with his KGB/FSB background he has got to be more switched on than most/all western politicians.


I agree with your points about the British military though, our politicians must be mad, they use the military more and more but at the same time have cut, cut and cut! I think the wars were mostly mistakes and have done no good and in many cases made things worse, but to send our military to war and to keep cutting it at the same time is total insanity!

I think most of us are under no illusions with regard to Mr Putin.

Indeed, and I know it pains many in NASA and ESA that we have to rely on them. Roll on the likes of Orion.

So will UK and US Govts will be supporting those who wish to secede part of their country into another country............

Interesting one vis a vis Scotland.

Yes best to let the Scottish have the freedom they deserve.
I have also read about movements in the USA who want various states to leave the US government. I think Texas was one who felt they had a good economic case for withdrawing. I could imagine Washington DC just loving that!

One would imagine
Putin is just awaiting the end of the Olympics, and despite all the bluster and political showboating, it will be Georgia 2.

From the D. Telegraph


Where was Britain as Ukraine burned? - Telegraph

The Telegraph appears to have been awarded the OBE since its print run.

Has brave Sir Yanukovych really read the writing on the wall, written in various languages?

Then again, bearing post-Christmas-shootings Romania in mind, there was more of a palace coup with good stage management with plausible but irrelevant taxi drivers booked to go on the teevee.

Huge Split: Eastern Ukraine rises against Kiev - YouTube


http://rt.com/news/thousands-gather-...n-ukraine-252/


Southeast seeks to restore constitutional order, thousands gather in Kharkov
Published time: February 22, 2014 11:21
Edited time: February 22, 2014 12:55


The public gathering of deputies from local councils of southeastern Ukraine have declared they are taking responsibility for constitutional order in the country, as thousands of people have assembled in the city of Kharkov.
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“We, the local authorities of all levels, the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol region decided to take responsibility for ensuring the constitutional order and the rights of citizens on their territory,” their resolution said.
The Kharkov public gathering has announced a number of measures local authorities should take in response to the developments in Kiev. They should take full responsibility for all decision in respective regions with no regard to authorities in Kiev until the constitutional order in Ukraine is restored, a resolution of the gathering says.
They authorities should take measures to protect arms depots and prevent their take-over and looting by radical opposition activists.
The deputies have criticized the decision adopted by the Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) in the last few days, saying they are raising doubts about its legitimacy.
The gathering says the legislative acts may have been passed involuntary and are neither legitimate nor lawful.
The resent decisions of the national parliament were taken in conditions “of terror, threats of violence and death,” the resolution says.
Meanwhile, citizens are encouraged to form local militias to protect public order. Local authorities are to fund and support those militias.
Over 10, 000 people have gathered at the city’s Sport Palace, where a total of 3,477 deputies have been holding a meeting.
The situation remains generally quiet with the crowd being partly in good spirits and partly subdued and concerned, Itar-Tass news agency reports from the Palace.
“3, 477 deputies from local councils in southeastern Ukraine have gathered. We have gathered here not to separate the country, but to save it,” the regional governor, Mikhail Dobkin, told the crowd.
The head of the Kharkov administration, Gennady Kernes, has called the public gathering “an attempt by qualified deputies from the east of the country to stabilize the situation.”
"My colleagues and I have been personally threatened. But today we have gathered to change the situation,” he said. “We will not give in; we will fight till the end.”
The statement has been echoed by Rada’s Party of Regions deputy, Vadim Kolesnichenko, who also said that politicians are being threatened and “their families are basically hostages [of the situation].”
Russia sent several officials in the capacity of observers to the gathering, including Aleksey Pushkov, the head of Russian parliamentary commission on foreign affairs, Mikhail Markelov, Pushkov’s counterpart in the Council of Federation, the upper chamber of the parliament, and several governors from regions in eastern Russia.
“The decisions taken here are positive and concrete. What is important is that everything voiced here was implemented in the interests of the Ukrainian people and the entire Ukraine. What Ukraine needs now is common sense and a survival instinct,” said Evgeny Savchenko, Governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, commenting on the Kharkov gathering.

They have impeached the President of the Ukraine and is on the move and has fled the capital, the police have signed up to the caretaker parliament and have gone back to the 2004 constitution, the defence minister has legged it to the Crimea. The police have pulled out of the centre and the protesters now hold control of all the buildings.

yes he's headed east and is claiming a coup is underway

No doubt on Monday (after the Olympics closes) he'll ask for "fraternal assistance" - think Hungary, E Germany, Poland and Czecho here............

and just liek those cases we can't or won't do anything