Interesting comentary on Iran here:

George Grant: John Baron MP has got it wrong on Iran Comment

Interesting article and some good points made, Courtney.

Former Mosad cheif Meir Dagan has bee speaking and although he's been denounced, he raised exactly the point I offered to SAM earlier - although I doubt he's read it. See:

Former Mossad chief: Israeli strike on Iran will lead to regional war - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

If Israel sees regional war as the only alternative to getting nuked, then I think it likely Israel would chose regional war.

Yep, good point. But without access to their intel and knowing what alternative action they may have considered, it's hard to tell. See earlier post about the effect of a single (very big) nuke.

Agree.

If it means Iran's facilities are taken out, I think they would look at it as a small price to pay in view of the potential bigger price to pay.

I think you're right. So where's SAM in all this?

M2

As he admitted earlier, he's had to access this site using a poxy server (I had one of them once at a sqn dining in night), maybe that's slowing down his thought processes. I'm off for the weekend, out of range of webby things - so await developments; by the time I get back, there will be ten days to armagedopalypse, or whatever the outcome of SAM's dream is.

Mister B

edit for spolling irror

I'm with you there, Mr B.

I don't think these have been linked to before:
before and after commercial satellite images of the Iranian site which blew up on 12th November
Satellite Images Show Devastation at Iran Missile Base After Blast

Looks like a chemical plant explosion to me - like when a nitration plant goes up
Nitration plant for making rocket fuel?

The problem as I see it with those images is the rubble has been cleaned up a bit which takes away some of the information that would have been available as to blast direction, power etc.

I haven't had time to look closely but has anyone had time to work out the centre of the blast - if it was located in the photo and not off to one side.


Edit
My quick guesstimate is that the centre of the blast, based on angle of damage was the Square, dark blue roofed building, top left of the compound. Also based on the fact that not much left of it, however as the debris has been cleaned up a bit this may be misguided.

I also can't see any hole in the ground, which even a ground detonated explosion should have left some sort of crater. Would love to see a more detailed satellite photo.

Anyone else care to comment ?

shy talk

"That place looks like it has been bombed."

Why do you say that ? Can you explain further.


Looks to me like a massive blast ground based blast centred where I said before that completely blew away some buildings and damaged those ends of buildings that were facing the blast.

shy talk

So you disagree that the images show the buildings damaged more at one end than the other ?

Why no craters ? Air burst bombs ?

Why is one building comletely gone but the others just damaged ?

Some more clues please.


A big explosion, flimsy buildings, the blast radius is pretty big.


What do you think the distances are between the buildings ? Using the original photo for reference points.

There are, what look to be, articulated lorries near the buildings on the right. They must be about 40' long.

There are scorch marks around where the middle of the 3 buildings on the left are, or rather were, possibly where the event happened.

Blast radius can be a moot point, but certainly significant damage occurred out to ~300'.

Dunno how that translates into quantities (and types) of rocket fuel. Or TNT!

Can't use YouTube at work but there are plenty of launch pad explosions to gauge the rocket fuel aspect.

looks to me like an explosion in or around that snaller grey roofed building just left of centre - just below the blue building mentioned by 500N

Furthermore when a chemical plant goes off, typically you won't get a crater: they have reinforced thick concrete floors and typically the explosion pressure pulse simply bounces off the concrete, and takes the least line of resistance - walls and roof.

Only questions here is - was it an accident, or was it caused deliberately?

jamesdevice
"looks to me like an explosion in or around that snaller grey roofed building just left of centre - just below the blue building mentioned by 500N"

I think you might be correct, the scorch / burn marks are darker here and typical of what you could get.

If it was rocket fuel for a Missile a la chemical, agree, re no crater.

From my experience, even small explosions of TNT, C4, AMFO detonated on the ground leave small craters unless tamped, which least me to the next point.

The blast radius / shock wave would be large enough and powerful enough to knock buildings around (and obviously nearly flatten those close by), especially if there was nothing to contain it, slow it down, direct it upwards etc etc and there doesn't seem to be anything to do that.

Just my HO.


Here is a good normal and slow motion video of the Rocket Fuel fire and explosion in the US showing very good shock waves. I don't think the Iran one was nearly as big but the shock wave would have been the same.

and thats the curious thing. On an explosives / rocket fuel manufacturing site you would expect some kind of earth bund / berm between buildings, and also a much greater separation of the buildings. Which leads to four possible conclusions
1) the risks were not understood (unlikely
2) the risks were ignored - the plant / people were expendable (possible)
3) there was originally no risk and this is a plant subverted from its original task
4) someone created a risk where there wasn't one by placing an explosive....

Its interesting that all the purported film of this event on the web shows only a large column of WHITE smoke, suggesting there was either little fire - or the fire was quickly put out. Which suggests little lying around in the way of flammables. Which makes me think, was this a vapour explosion with everything burnt off in one flash? Leaking gas tanks / fuel lines? Yet theres nothing obviously visible of that type. Exploding tanker? Anyone know how the Iranians fuel their rockets? Hydrazine?

James

I wouldn't think you need an explosive to set off Rocket fuel like you need one for ANFO or C4 etc etc.

I'm sure their were plenty of volatile things in the factory - which proved correct !!!

You've always got static electricity as an accidental source ?

I would say the site relates to your " 3) there was originally no risk and this is a plant subverted from its original task".

Re the Berm, on other "bigger" pictures of the Iran site it does look like their is a wall or something around the whole area but quite some way out.

Even a small, angled earth berm around a building will direct the majority of the shock wave upwards. As long as whatever it is, especially earth, impede the shock wave, it will stay intact. ie the Old Bomb Explosive bunkers of yesteryear that had the earth berms around them.

Agreed look at the devastation caused at the buncefield fire - no explosives there but probably felt like being hit by a sqn of BUFF's fully loaded for a Rolling Thunder or Arc Light.

I know I'd not want to be there - as to the explosion in MadDinnerJackets house of rocketry (allegedly) it seems to point to a big fuel explosion - does not need to be much of a source.

Oh, yeah, my terms for the bet. If MSM picks up that Iran gets bombed before 1/1/12 0001 hrs. I will put £50 into the Royal British Legion - if not I call Sam XXV as a lying walt and expect him to put £50 into a forces charity.

Any takers.......? or is Sam's ego and imagination writing cheques his body can't cash?

Cornish
"Oh, yeah, my terms for the bet. If MSM picks up that Iran gets bombed before 1/1/12 0001 hrs. I will put £50 into the Royal British Legion - if not I call Sam XXV as a lying walt and expect him to put £50 into a forces charity."

"Any takers.......? or is Sam's ego and imagination writing cheques his body can't cash?"


Sam's ego - yes, well, in view of what it took (as in what I wrote) to get him to bite on my bet / challenge, he obviously has one. I don't think he would have liked what else I had to write if he hadn't have responded but it certainly would have made him bite.

I'd suggest we win my bet first and make sure he pays that first because I have a sneaking suspicion he might try to wriggle out of the whole thing - in which case I would hope that the PPRuNe Mods get rid of him.
.

Sam
no-one is going to fill a large missile with liquid fuel and then move it
a) not safe
b) missile would be able to handle the stresses - skin would rupture

Unless you are suggesting that they were doing a test fuel / defuel, but then
1) why do it indoors ? (damned unsafe)
2) that building does not look tall enough


PS theres a heck of a difference between a Bloodhound and a ballistic missile