About 15 hours to the first tremors....but probably not induced by a big bomb. I'm almost tempted to stay up late tonight, maybe.

Mister B

HTB

I wouldn't stay up, fate has it that I have to go out so I'll be back a bit after 0200 Z.

Probably best to wait 'till the next day LOL:O

It would be like staying up for Christmas when you know it's not going to happen.

Courtney
Agree, but he's not going to get off that lightly:O

Too right, Mate!

What's that noise I just heard??









http://playstationeu.i.lithium.com/t...v=mpbl-1&px=-1

I thought it was about to kick off last night. I was in the garden having a smoke when I saw two trails of light accross the sky.

Turned out they weren't MIRVs* from a Shahab 6 but a couple of shooting stars.

*actually, it supposedly has a single warhead, before the pedants leap on me.

You'r a bit previous SAM lad, unless I misunderstood, the deadline was 2359Z today.

While we're watching and waiting, would you fancy setting another deadline for a further little wager? How long is "several weeks"?

Mister B

Well Done Sam and try not to bite at any more hooks that might be cast in your direction.

I am here to read the excellent posts on the numerous threads on this forum and it does sadden me to see folks that perhaps cross that line between banter and insults.

We are all individuals with the right to express an opinion, if we disagree with what is said then fine, if we can add humour to our posts that might disagree with what is being said then so much the better, but why hurl insults at those that show a passion in what they belief? Sea Harriers dropping nuclear fifteen ton bombs on Tehran may happen or it may not... :ouch::ouch::ouch::ouch::O

My thoughts are that any nation that is insane enough to use a nuclear weapon of any size will hopefully be immediately ostracised by the rest of the World!

If in the next eight weeks we have a nuclear weapon used in the Middle East then I will match the sum you were cajoled in paying out to the exact same charity.

Have a nice Christmas and keep your tackle out of the water! ;)

GloJo,

I take your points re banter/insults. I think a few people have become really frustrated by a number of 90 degree changes of direction and not having points answered/acknowledged/read. But your point is a good one.

Re your: My thoughts are that any nation that is insane enough to use a nuclear weapon of any size will hopefully be immediately ostracised by the rest of the World!

A good idea. I think the threat of not talking to a nation and sending them to Coventry will be a lot cheaper that having to go through all that tedious nuclear deterence and military reprisals!!! :E

glojo

SAM is, as far as I am aware, the first Ppruner to blame the President of the United States for the Ppruner's incorrect assessment.

Okay fair cop... Send them to Birmingham or perish the thought.... Cornwall :) :)

I totally accept the very valid point regarding those 90 degree turns but I guess these hand-brake turns are all done to test the patience of those folks who are better informed ;);)

Glojo,

I think you're right. Also, as I have said before, the bold predictions have made for a very entertaining thread.

Caz,

Yes, that's another first and I shall have a word with Obama. :)

Glojo - you are treading on thin ice -

We don't want your rejects especially if they turn out to be Sam,

The only part of that post that makes any sense is the IAF abilit to fly through Iraqi airspace with relative impunity once the USAF withdraws from its control of Iraqi air space.

Not sure what US and Iraqi accords has been agreed regarding sharing info on airspace monitoring.

I am not party to the signed agreement, nor the details staffed out, but I have my doubts that, since a few thousand "advisors" remain to "help" in a diplomatic role, the airspace monitoring functions will go completely black.

That said, the IAF can probably blaze through Iraqi airspace if they'd like to, in January. That does not mean they will.

The rest of your estimation doesn't fit very well, however ...

lonewolf

I wonder if there is some agreement for the US to hold a Q from Kuwait and Turkey over Iraqi airspace, al la the old Northern/Southern Watch, until Iraq gets it's F-16's? The irony is that back in the day, the CAP's were to stop whatever that was in Iraq, getting out, whereas now it would be the other way round :\

A thought - what about a pre-emptive by Iran on Isreal? :eek:

I don't know about when or what might happen, SAM, but they are probably under pressure to consider doing something. However, Obama was never one to take the US into any more ops/conflicts if he could possibly avoid it. He did not want to lead in Libya and is really keen to get out of Iraq a.s.a.p. He wants a clean slate before the next election because he still thinks he's in with a chance.

I think I can understand that Saudi spend billions in defence without using it aggresively whilst following their version of fundamental Islam. Two different things. That doesn't make them weird, it's just the way they are.

So do you think the 15 ton big blus are out of the picture now?

Courtney

glojo

Good post, points taken in.

I have no problem with differing view points but when someone shouts a very "left field" position, then goes from one extreme to the other, at the same time contradicting themselves every few posts, without reading or answering anyone's questions asking him to justify what he said, then I would say at some point someone will challenge you to stand by your convictions. Especially when almost speaking on or setting US Gov't policy.

I did become a bit belligerent, fair cop, but it achieved the objective.

I queried you on the Pearl Harbour thread, you answered every question, in detail and with a well structured post.

SAM

"Sadly that can only be the use of tactical small yeild nuclear bombs to destroy underground facilities.

We shall see very shortly.:ugh:"


Care for another, double or nothing ?:O

Wasn't the 15 ton Big Blu specifically designed for use on "underground facilities" because no other current bomb could penetrate far enough in to be certain of destroying them ?

Why would they now switch to "tactical small yield nuclear bombs" apart from denying an area due to nuclear fall out ?

Good points 500N. Residual rad would deny the area for (effectively) ever. Plus, so would a "bunker buster". Remember that Chernobyl and Fukushima weren't nuclear explosions, just explosions that threw a lot of nuclear material out of its hole. So the 15 Ton Big BLU in the right place would (potentially) have the same effect. But only on the sites that held significant nuclear inventory.

Like you, I ask if the Big BLU is now out of the frame?

Courtney