Update
 

The latest on this saga:


More here: Britain's isolation on Falklands grows with 'anti-colonial' Brazil snub - Telegraph

This approach is based on a feeling that it is time for Britain to move over and which view is fuelled by meetings between Latin American leaders who take no account of law or history and encourage each other with prostestations of "thieves" and "imperialists."

Earl

Well if they managed to get the bloody submarine off the sandbar, then they can send that down there.

I must admit, if it were left to me in 1982, I would have given every Falkland Islander £1,000,000 and a Spanish dictionary.

I bet there wouldn't have been any dissenters then - that's the self-determination sorted out.

But that was never why we were there was it . . . ?

I still remember the greedy bastard over-charging us in the Upland Goose.

Still at least there's lots of Merchant ships to requisition..

oh wait....

P&O are no longer British....

and the only ship really capable is the Queen Mary 2...

oh, she's a Cunarder and owned by Carnival so therefore American owned...

The only thing that is going to deter any kind of attack is the reinforcement of the garrison. In this respect, we are reliant on the J2 guys to spot the signs as far into the distance as possible.

It is not beyond the wit of the UK though, through a combination of factors, not to see it coming. If it does happen, it will be too late. There is not going to be the equipment, personnel, political will or leadership necessary to retake the islands if they are lost again.

So, if they are that important, defend them properly.

One has to bear in mind as well, that rattling a sabre makes a lot of noise, like these episodes prove. Drawing the sabre and inflicting the wound, does not. A lot of this is just noise and "buggeration factor", arguably for South American domestic consumption.

Short of us gifting the islands to them on a plate, which I dont think we're quite ready to do just yet (maybe another 4 years or so :E), I dont think theres any immediate threat for us to get worked up about.

Britain's isolation on Falklands grows with 'anti-colonial' Brazil snub - Telegraph

..... whose article would have been enhanced by a photograph of HMS CLYDE, rather than RFA LARGS BAY ......:(

Jack

In happier days, when we possessed a competent Foreign Office and supporting agencies, a long-running yet relatively minor military conflict would have arisen between Argentina and Chile (long frontier to soak up lots of resource)

In 2011, as per previous postings by other on pprune, if the FCs do not object then any military incursion into the Falklands by the Argentinians will be currently met with vastly superior air power, a high attrition rate for skimmers and a Tomahawk storm.

But isn't it about time we saw some of this oil?

One thing that gets me thinking though. If there was indication of any significant and economically viable oil reserves down that way (which the spook community would know about long before most oil & gas professionals, let alone the general public), wouldn't you expect the usual preparations for securing the bounty?

OTOH, if the indications are that nothing of substance is expected to be found, then why go through all the hassle and expense of stepping up defences?

Comments?

What will happen is this:

1) It kicks off in a few years time
2) US&A comes to our 'aid'
3) The oil rights are given to US&A as payment
4) UK gets screwed over by the spams again

If there was indication of any significant and economically viable oil reserves down that way (which the spook community would know about long before most oil & gas professionals,

If the spooks know before the oil & gas professionals, then those drilling rigs would be putting exploratory wells into the spooks. Yes the intelligence services pay attention to what is going on in oil & gas but they have to wait like everyone else.

Rockhopper PLC is drilling as we speak..

Effectively an appraisal well for the SeaLion field to see how far it stretches and hitting a previously untapped fan system.

Initial estimates from the single drill on SeaLion indicate 170+ mmbo, though if it does stretch as far as the current well then you're looking at closer to a billion barrels.

Oil has been found and is commercially viable. It is too early to say how much but RKH have funding through 2011 for a further 8 wells.

It took 80 wells sunk into the North Sea before commercial oil was found, it is very early days in the Falklands however results are encouraging. I suspect we will see the first Falklands oil sold towards the back end of 2012.

The problem, and the direction of Argentine discourtesy, is in the transportation. All of the FI explorers are relatively small (saying that Rkh tops a billion quid now) hence they need finance to develop and explore the region. Once production starts they will need to hire tankers to deliver the oil to the nearest refinery. If the nearest refinery, due to political pressure from Argentina, is 1000s of miles away then it makes the commercial aspects tighter.

Not impossible, just less profitable overall. The recent rise in the oil price dwarfs these considerations of course.

Told you so!

Argentina's president stokes up claim to the Falklands

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/...R_1580770c.jpg
Argentina's president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, is playing the Falklands card in her election campaign

Argentina's president is stoking up patriotic sentiment over the Falklands by ordering that each school have a classroom named after a soldier killed in the conflict with Britain.

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner made the announcement as she said that "the Malvinas are Argentine for ever" and the government "will never yield in our claim".

More of the 'hag's' ;) ramblings here

Blimey, she makes Gaddafi seem lucid :eek: and he's better looking.

.....and of course, we are particularly well-placed right now to support the islands............

I reckon I'd kick Gaddafi out of bed for her.....................

She looks like she is performing some kind of act on an invisible visual aid - possibly?

Send the machinegundemic over with 500 rounds, job jobbed. :ok::ok::ok:

I know her.

I met her in a ladyboy bar in Bangkok.

PS

Does she/he remind anyone of another looney Argentinian, well known for his rantings....

I actually saw this on the news in BA, and what she said (literally translated), was that " Camerons Man Sword is only this big" - Which across the latin world is considered a gross insult.

1981-2 revisited when UK were paring down military, much to US dislike, to reduce costs and all of a sudden a couple of "incidents" required a reconsideration...................cynical moi !!!

What is the range of a Tomahawk?

UNCLASS 1200-1400nm...

If the Argies get a bit aggressive and have another go the simplest way to deal with them is to send a Vanguard Sub down launch a trident missle into BA. Remove the warhead and replace it with a few notes that say: "The next missle will be armed if you don't withdraw all Argie personnel from the Falkland Islands imediatly."

dat581,


Er, you're not very good at strategy are you?


Jeeez...

Thanks. Depending on the rules of engagement, it's difficult to believe that the Argentinians would consider aggressive actions against the Falklands if the UK has the option of using Tomahawks. But would the rules of engagement permit Tomahawk strikes against targets on the Argentine mainland? Probably not (?)

Military targets ? Like jets ?

Why not ?

.

I was in Buenos Aires recently and walked past the memorial to their dead in the Falklands. At the time it was being guarded by two soldiers in rather ruritanian uniforms. It started to drizzle and a guy wearing jeans and a t-shirt, with a cigarette in his mouth, approached them, spoke for a few seconds, and then turned away. To be honest, he looked like a drunk out to cause trouble.The soldiers followed him and it soon became clear what was happening. The scruff was clearly their guard commander taking them in out of the rain. When the drizzle stopped he, still with cigarette on the go, brushed some raindrops off their epaulettes and waved them back to their posts, while he sauntered off.I was completely taken aback! If that is indicative of their armed force's level of professionalism and commitment (to what is supposed to be a sacred memorial) then I think we should be quietly confident.I found no animosity to us Brits though (even when returing by sea to Buenos Aires direct from Stanley with a Falkland Islands stamp in my passport).Clearly, though, the Malvinas (sic) runs deep in the national psyche - I must admit I was amused to see the weather forecasts on the local news channels; every one of them religiously went through the outlook for the islands. I can't imagine they truly believe that any Falklander will be tuning in...Or maybe they do! One of the oddest things in the Falkland Islands Museum is a propaganda note delivered to islanders straight after the invasion which reads:"People of the Malvinas - You have been liberated from the illegal colonial government. The people and Armed Forces of Argentina embrace you as brothers. Join us in forging a great future for the islands. Join us in giving thanks to the blessed Virgin Mary for the success of Operation Rosary."

"If there was indication of any significant and economically viable oil reserves down that way (which the spook community would know about long before most oil & gas professionals, let alone the general public)"

How?

Does the CIA have its own seismic boats and drillships that operate in a cloak of invisibility?

I doubt any secret service could afford the costs of running an oil operation

Watch AIM announcements instead - the oil companies publish detailed updates all the time

Check the Desire and Rockhopper forums on iii.co.uk. Some very informative chaps as well as the usual rampers and derampers

Desire is drilling the Ninky prospect as we speak so expect to see an rns next week hopefully - this is Desire's last chance really as they have expended investors' cash on their drills that found water earlier this year - a sham of a company really. But if they find oil it will become big news.

If they do find oil in Ninky it becomes very important as this will prove the basin and put the FI on the map as a major new oil discovery. FOGL have yet to drill their prospects in the Southern area - they have secured a rig for 2012 and their area is a lot deeper but is thought to contain billions of barrels of oil.

Stock up on Rockhopper shares as they are currently undervalued and probably offer greater value today than many FTSE 100 companies.

Beware, all the oil "operators" in the FI are "Punts" at the moment. Only invest if you can afford to lose it! Is pprune' becoming an IFA?

What's your problem with that PrOOne? Sounds good to me.. shades of the Cold War posturing.

During the Falklands war in 82 consideration was given to flying a Vulcan over BA to acheive the same effect as dat581 mentioned.
Sadly the only effective platform with range would be a Sub now :(.

How useful would a few MLRS be against an argie amphibious assault?

More to the point, how effective would a sub be?

How about an SSN and MLRS, and more than a token fig leaf of air cover?


The best way to keep the Falkland Islands is to avoid losing them in the first place. I seem to remember (from reading about it - I'm not that old!) that Singapore was considered an impenetrable fortress that couldn't be taken, especially by a 'minor nation' with 'inferior kit'. How did that work out again?


Over-egging the defence of the Falklands, at least until the situation reference oil, etc, is clarified, can have no real impact except for a relatively minor cost implication. Under defending the Falklands however, could have catastrophic consequences.....

If they find oil in economic quantities we can ask for a bigger cheque in return for more kit there

And which 6 months of 1982 would that be??

Ranger 1: God forbid, if any Nuke/tomahawk sub should be as accurate as the Vulcans in '82, we may as well hand the islands over to them now :ugh:

Gosh. I know diplomatic relations between Argentina and UK have advanced a lot since 1982, but I didn't know we had RAF detachments on exchange postings out there...

An SSN takes care of the seaborn threat.

Some Typhoons and a few correctly located SAM batteries take care of the Argentine Air Threat.

A variety of UAV under local control, and a slightly mobile light infantry battalion take care of Argentine SPEZNAZ sorts.

The problem will come when the Argentine Government goes to one of these International Kangaroo Courts with this crap.

I wish they'd knock this crap off, all it does is split the West and put the Chinese in a bigger state of ROFMLAO.

Argentina are planning to buy six Embraer KC-390s (Air refuelling tanker and transport). Currently they rely on KC-130 Hercules to provide an air tanker capability.

EMBRAER DEFENSE AND SECURITY AND FAdeA SIGN PARTNERSHIP CONTRACT FOR KC-390 PROGRAM | INTERNATIONAL AVIATION NEWS

Embraer Defense and Security and the Argentine company FAdeA signed a partnership contract, today, for the KC-390 program. The announcement was made during a press conference held at LAAD Defense and Security 2011

http://www.aviationnews.eu/blog/wp-c...aer-KC-390.jpg

TJ

How far off is the Meteor a-a missile from service?