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-   -   Future Carrier (Including Costs) (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/221116-future-carrier-including-costs.html)

RAFEngO74to09 18th Jul 2020 19:37

The F-4K (FG1) and F-4M (FGR2) did indeed end up costing 2-3 x the cost of a F-4J.

However:

- The F-4K could not have operated from HMS Ark Royal and HMS Eagle without the more powerful Spey engine - 2 x 20,500 lbf vs 2 x 17,900 lbf of the J79 (the HMS Eagle refit to carry the F-4K was subsequently cancelled).

- The UK government of the day insisted on over 50% of the manufacturing work going to UK industry which had just suffered the cancellation of P1154, HS 681 and TSR2.

- The Spey turbofan - as opposed to the J79 turbojet - was also the better choice for the low level nuclear strike / attack / recce role the F-4M was originally employed in.

- The government had fixed the funds available for F-4K/M procurement - originally 400 were planned - but when the costs rose numbers were cut to 170 - which in turn drove the unit cost up even further.

- Had the original 400 been procured, the unit cost would have been much lower and the RAF probably wouldn't have had to make the retrograde step of turning the Pussycat advanced trainer (by flip flopping the relative production numbers for planned 2-seat / single-seat variants) into a less capable pseudo strike / attack / recce aircraft to "replace" the F-4M to free up the numbers required to replace the Lightning for UK AD !

WE Branch Fanatic 10th Aug 2020 00:00

Whilst lazily looking on the net, courtesy of Google, I found this old (late seventies) report from the US Congressional Budget Office:

Congressional Budget Office - the US Sea Control Mission

This looked at the problem of maintaining US and NATO Sea Control in the North Atlantic, GIUK gap, and Norwegian waters. It discussed the naval and air forces needed, Of particular note:

1. Equations are given for the size of a fighter force expected to achieve a certain response time and level of coverage.
2. Equations are given for aircraft numbers needed for 24/7 AEW coverage.
3. Equations are given for the costs of projects and programmes.
4. The need to put carriers in the Atlantic to defend reinforcement convoys is mentioned.
5. In addition to the carriers, convoys, amphibious forces, and underway replenishment ships are listed as things that need defending (including by carrier aircraft).

We seem to be going back to those times.

Bigpants 12th Aug 2020 09:09

One of the benefits of the Mil Aviation section of Prune is that it provides the public with a comprehensive 50 year history of MOD procurement cock ups which have wasted £ Billions for little benefit other than to the shareholders of the military industrial complex and of course the recruitment/reward of retired officers and civil servants who were strangely offered defence consultancy jobs with contractors despite CVs chock full of poor procurement decisions which damaged the fighting efficiency of HM Armed Forces. Strange world.

WE Branch Fanatic 16th Aug 2020 19:37

I see that nobody has commented on the late seventies US Congress report on Sea Control in the Atlantic.

Then, as now, NATO was divided by a large Ocean, and things such as reinforcement convoys and amphibious forces would be at risk of Soviet (and Warsaw Pact?) air and submarine attack. This drove NATO and UK weapon and platform development. A relatively recent (post 2000) development was the low frequency towed array sonar - which really needs to be used in conjunction with active dipping sonar - hence the Type 23 frigates that were refitted with 2087 sonar also received upgrades so they could operate the Merlin. However 24/7 dipping demands multiple aircraft, from a large deck.

I also started a thread to discuss it - here. Note the authoritative replies from ECMO1 - a former US Navy Naval Flight Officer with extensive carrier experience operating the EA-6B Prowler:

...the primary mission for the CV/CVN in the North Atlantic was not ASW (it was an additional role) but rather AAW to prevent the Backfire/Bears from attacking the convoys. The A-6/A-7s were the organic tankers to push the F-4/F-14 CAP stations out to a range to shoot the archer, not the arrows. Obviously, those roles swapped a bit when you started facing a surface threat or got close enough to land to start contemplating strikes against those Soviet Naval Air Arm airfields.

Defence in depth is for winners.

Asturias56 17th Aug 2020 15:01

I find it hard to believe we're talking about "convoys" steaming about the N Atlantic with conventional strike aircraft coming at them when the whole of Europe will be alight......

just about every war game and scenario I've ever heard of has N war breaking out in C Europe within a few days of the balloon going up

SLXOwft 25th Aug 2020 19:13

OK, its not directly aviation related, but its good to see the resurection of Appledore Shipbuilders' yard wihich built bow sections for both QNLZ and POW. Bought by InfraStrata who slso bought Harland and Wolff last year it will be interesting to see if they get any (sub-contracted) naval work.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-53903667

Asturias56 26th Aug 2020 07:19

Hmmm - they've said the problems were the previous owners were dependent on Military work but they'll build other thins - we shall see.... hopefully they won't be asking for a tax-payer subsidy as H&W always did

WE Branch Fanatic 29th Aug 2020 11:19

In the past Appledore mainly did commercial work, things like ferries and chemical tankers which were sold to customers all over Europe and beyond.

Anyway, HMS Queen Elizabeth will soon be the centre of a NATO GROUPEX. I am not too sure how many many ASW Merlins she was carry, or jets, or what the exercise will involve, but this is the start of her contributing to national and NATO defence capability, and helping keep the peace by demonstrating capability.


WE Branch Fanatic 2nd Sep 2020 07:22

They say a picture paints a thousand words. Whilst these two are not the best in terms of quality, they should make the point.

1. An illustration from a book, describing task group air defence/AAW. Whilst the distances stated are questionable, particularly as naval SAMs have longer ranges than when that book was written in the early nineties, and the range of a CAP station is given as 100 nm, it does prove a point. The blue area represents the area that can be defended by aircraft from the carrier. A similar thing applies to ASW protection involving carrier based aircraft.


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....65c72cebd4.jpg

Moving the battle outwards and defence in depth are for winners.

2. From the eighties periodical Warplane, a map of the GIUK gap and the Atlantic theatre. The text mentions particularly the role of the F-14 Tomcats and E-2 Hawkeyes aboard the American carriers, and the Sea Harriers and Sea Kings aboard the RN ones. The illustration includes all the US carrier based aircraft types, and our Sea Kings.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c2398d6ffd.jpg

ORAC 2nd Sep 2020 07:47


Moving the battle outwards and defence in depth are for winners.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proce...ter-air-battle

Resurrect the ‘Outer-air’ Battle

The AMRAAM is no longer good enough to counter China’s antiship cruise missiles and growing naval warfare capabilities.

WE Branch Fanatic 4th Sep 2020 16:11

Sorry for the delay in replying. Thank you for an interesting article. Cdr Watson is a former Naval Flight Officer on the F-4 Phantom and F-14 Tomcat mostly. He says much the same thing as the former USN NFO from the EA-6B that I quoted above.

The strategy was to have F-14 Tomcats armed with Phoenix and Sparrow missiles sitting on the threat’s weapon release line, thus forcing enemy units to fight through our F-14s to reach a launch point—i.e., “It’s easier to shoot the archer than his arrows.


No shipborne weapon system can match the range of a fighter. If a successor to Phoenix had been developed, would the US Navy have not fitted it to the F/A-18D/F and F-35C (with a fit to the -B as the USMC may have to defend their expeditionary strike groups, ie amphibious forces)?



Asturias56 8th Sep 2020 08:11

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...re-54064886The HMS Queen Elizabeth has postponed sailing from Portsmouth after crew members tested positive for Covid-19. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the affected sailors - fewer than 10 in number - were isolating in barracks ashore. The aircraft carrier, which has a crew of 1,000, had been set to leave its base on Monday for training exercises. Sailors who had contact with their infected crewmates will isolate on board the £3bn vessel.

WE Branch Fanatic 9th Sep 2020 18:42

She has put to sea:


In the old days, the Invincible class CVS normally operated nine ASW Sea Kings, but one of these was kept at readiness for SAR, and they also had to do things like VERTREP. After 2000, the Sea Kings were replaced by Merlins, with a Sea King doing utlity and SAR tasks. These days many of the SAR and utility taskings can be done by embarked Jungly HC4s, leaving the Merlin HM2 to concentrate on ASW. It has a greater range and endurance (five hours) than the old Sea King (about four hours) or indeed other current ASW helicopter types such as the MH-60R or the NH90.

820 NAS have got six cabs embarked. Somewhere I read that some elements of 824 NAS will join them. I imagine some Junglies will too.

Auxtank 9th Sep 2020 19:03

Good. She delayed slipping because of some crew members testing positive for Covid.

Obviously thrown them over the side and she's on her way.

Good stuff.

Carry On.

Out Of Trim 10th Sep 2020 09:37

Only 15 F-35s? Well, 10 USMC F-35s arrived at RAF Marham, so how many from 617 Sqn? I was expecting about 20 or more to embark aboard HMS QNLZ...

FODPlod 10th Sep 2020 10:14


Originally Posted by Out Of Trim (Post 10882174)
Only 15 F-35s? Well, 10 USMC F-35s arrived at RAF Marham, so how many from 617 Sqn? I was expecting about 20 or more to embark aboard HMS QNLZ...

Choose your news sources more carefully. All is explained here:

International By Design - The Royal Navy and USMC F35 Embarkation


The Daily Mail has reported that the Royal Navy is looking at plans to deploy HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH to sea carrying more US than British F35 jets. This is reportedly due to the speed of planned procurement, and could see 20 US jets embarked to a smaller number of UK ones. This has led to criticism from MPs that the Royal Navy must not make the ship an multi-national one.

Is this reasonable, and is this something that people should be concerned about?

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ffaef94bfb.jpg

The plan for the carriers since their inception has been to build over a long period of time two aircraft carriers, supported by an F35 force, able to put to sea with supporting elements and deliver the Carrier Strike Group concept...



Out Of Trim 10th Sep 2020 15:14

[QUOTE=FODPlod;10882196]Choose your news sources more carefully. All is explained here:

International By Design - The Royal Navy and USMC F35 Embarkation
[/QUOTE

Actually I didn't choose any news sources... I was merely replying to the post stating 15 F-35s would embark! I'm quite aware that our procurement of the F-35 would be quite slow as planned.

I believe RAF Marham have around 18 UK F-35s, So how many are they sending?

By the way, you should choose your news sources more carefully... The Daily Mail is not what I would call a "Careful Choice!"

fitliker 10th Sep 2020 15:33


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10838396)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...ster-n2t6m3b8d

.....
In a speech to the MoD’s air and space power conference, Mr Wallace said that Britain should learn from Turkey, which had harnessed armed drones, electronic warfare and “smart ammunition”........

Unmanned aviation was a central theme at the conference, as the RAF announced that it was trialling flying drones from aircraft carriers and Mr Wallace announced that he had signed a £65 million contract for its first three Protector drones. The government is set to buy 20 of the drones, which are armed with Hellfire missiles.....

Turkey did create the first Air Force . Good ideas spread quickly . There is very little defence from Space Weapons , just large rocks falling space might give it a natural disaster look . It would not be beyond modern capabilities to nudge a few large asteroids against an enemy . The trick would be getting the timing right and not causing another ice age .

FODPlod 10th Sep 2020 16:50


Originally Posted by Out Of Trim (Post 10882433)

Originally Posted by FODPlod (Post 10882196)
Choose your news sources more carefully. All is explained here:

International By Design - The Royal Navy and USMC F35 Embarkation

Actually I didn't choose any news sources... I was merely replying to the post stating 15 F-35s would embark! I'm quite aware that our procurement of the F-35 would be quite slow as planned.

I believe RAF Marham have around 18 UK F-35s, So how many are they sending?

617 Sqn deployed six F-35Bs to Cyprus last year so I would expect this to be the minimum with the possibility of up to eight. We shall see soon enough.


Originally Posted by Out Of Trim (Post 10882433)
...By the way, you should choose your news sources more carefully... The Daily Mail is not what I would call a "Careful Choice!"

Apologies if my irony caused you offence but this is precisely the point being made by ‘Sir Humphrey’ in his blog and, by implication, me.

Levelling_the_Land 10th Sep 2020 20:27

Seems to me someone has been reading too much Heinlein (rocks falling from space)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mo...Harsh_Mistress



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