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A Weather-Guesser's Memories with the RAF

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A Weather-Guesser's Memories with the RAF

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Old 17th Apr 2024, 10:44
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Hi Chugalug

Risking thread drift, Churchwardens are the senior lay members of a church, responsible for the Church Buildings, churchyard (although how that applies on a service establishment is an open question) and the Terrier (what non-church people call the inventory). In practice they end up with a lot of extra responsiblities too. They are licenced by the relevant bishop.

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Old 17th Apr 2024, 15:51
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Originally Posted by Chugalug2
What a bewildering rank structure within the CofE, LB. Were you above or below a Verger (can't think that anyone would be below Mr Yeatman though!)? Churchwardens, Sides-persons, Choristers, Organists within the lay camp. Curates, Chaplains, Padres, Vicars, Deacons, Canons, Deans, Bishops, Archbishops in the ordained one, though none necessarily in the right order, Sunshine! I suspect there are many more, though possibly some I list might be interlopers and not within the CofE anyway. At least the RAF sat on the Bride's side at St Boniface and I'm glad that in that congregation at least you were wholly adopted by the Service as part of it and its lay representative there.

I've always suspected that Sandy Wilson fell foul of RAF VSO politics and if so he wouldn't be the first by any means to do so. Curtains, no matter how ornate and costly, seem curious items to become a Cause Celebre. At one time it was almost a two horse race between him and John Thomson as to which would first make CAS. In the event neither did of course (JT dying tragically and suddenly in the aftermath of the Mull of Kintyre tragedy).
The CWs at St. B tended to be much longer serving than padres, who came and went rather quickly. One matter was well-known and acted on: sermons were allotted 12 minutes other than in exceptional circumstances. Unusually there was an analogue clock in the view of the pulpit. New padres were briefed tactfully by the CWs, the latter making it clear that the time limit fell within the ambit of Caesar.
That said, we had a super lot of padres to support.

and I still have not sorted the MMU and the Vintage Port.
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Old 17th Apr 2024, 16:46
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LB: John Thompson (the younger) was SASO after Tim Thorn - and I think stayed on post-RAFG till the demise of HQ 2 Gp on 31 March 1996.
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Old 18th Apr 2024, 08:41
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Originally Posted by ICM
LB: John Thompson (the younger) was SASO after Tim Thorn - and I think stayed on post-RAFG till the demise of HQ 2 Gp on 31 March 1996.
Thank you. Rather more cerebral than his predecessor; asked more difficult questions!
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Old 18th Apr 2024, 11:26
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
In those days all junior forecasters were passed as observers so the tradition was to allow the observer an hour sack time 0001 to 0100 Zulu when observations from all sources were staggering in. The forecaster did both jobs. We all had RAF airfield passes on lanyards and habitually took them off once inside the office. Even at Nicosia there was sometimes low stratus so the height of cloud base needed to be measured by cloud searchlight. One dark night I made my way to the post holding the sighting alidade, on a little roundabout, disguised by shrubs and with the mandatory white kerbstones. After noting the degrees, I was taken a bit short so decided the bushes were as good as anywhere. The dog’s hot breath interrupted my flow. With button flies agape and no ID, and only a stupid tale to tell I was escorted to the Met. Office, where there was nobody awake to vouch for me. The snowdrop saw the funny side of it, we had a coffee, and the dog a saucer of milk.

The sting was that I had forgotten the angle, so had to repeat the more conventional part of the exercise.
LB - I'm enjoying your memories of life as a Metman! I'm also an ex-metman, but we never met although came close on one occasion when I was detached to RAF Manston from RAF Laarbruch in 1997.

Anyway, your close call with a dog at night, brought back a harrowing memory of my own... I was based at Netheravon at the time, on a nightshift. Popping out just before 2am one night to conduct the hourly 'ob', I too was caught short. The outside toilet was a walk away in pitch dark and I'll be honest, creepy as hell at night, so decided to opt for the easier option. I was just about to 'start' when I was conscious of some movement in the distance (it could be very dark in the middle of Salisbury Plain) so quickly 'retracted my undercarriage'... thank God I did because seconds later a huge German Shepherd came running up to me. I froze. I physically couldn't move. I was later told by the MoD Policeman (who by then had called off the dog, called 'Buckle') that I had done the right thing... had I tried to run, Buckle would have had me as a snack!
We had a bit of a laugh about what happened (me nervously) and that was that. From that episode, I was always very careful on a nightshift at Netheravon and kept my 'buckle' very definitely done up!

Looking forward to reading your further updates...

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Old 18th Apr 2024, 17:14
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THE MOBILE MET UNIT.
Disclaimer. I was never an insider but had many friends among the unit, and a good number of members reporting to me. It is certain that my recollections contain errors. If so, corrections please!

The Mobile Met Unit was founded when I was in Cyprus c. 1963, figuratively clutching a Dormant Commission as a F O in the RAFVR. Thus or otherwise there was no attempt to recruit me to that unusual body.

I did see recruitment efforts in Met. O. Orders and was briefly tempted. I already had a slack handful of secondary duties such as S Met.O to the UK Warning and Monitoring Organisation ‘down the hole’ at Fiskerton and Horsham. As an aside, there was good specialist training by experts in fall-out and the behaviour of radioactive plumes. There was a major exercise most years lasting a long weekend during which we used canned weather and did not have access to real weather reports. Sometimes emerging into a gale with lashing rain having lived with an antiCyclops for 72 hours felt weird.

The MMU members were commissioned, and I think the most senior in the early days was a Sqn Ldr. There was a need for observers as well as forecasters so the juniors were commissioned as F Os in the first place. The role was to support exercises [‘war’ or ‘operations’ were tacitly included but not dwelt on]. The pay was totally civilian according to Met. grade, and overtime was also paid under civilian rules. The major exercises were ‘Purple’ and sometimes the MMU forecast disagreed with the RN version. On one famous occasion the Exercise Director singled ‘us’ out for differential praise.

There was always [and probably still is] a tension between MMU needs and the day to day running of an RAF Station Met. Office. This tension was caused by short-notice transition of a resident forecaster into an RAF MMU bloke whisked away indefinitely, with no process other than expedients to fill the gap. Contrary to widespread belief, staffing was always lean, if not mean. This situation came to a head in 1982 when exercise commitments became Operations, and the need to man Ascension [and later Stanley] took away a considerable number of staff. P Met Os [I was such at RAF Bawtry] were straight into the task of juggling holes.

Thereafter the uneasy years of peace were punctuated by deployments here there and everywhere, to sandy places and the Balkans.
By this time the MMU had grown to include its own Met. technicians and the boss was a Wg Cdr sporting a number plate MMU 1 on a less than pristine car.

While I was C Met O in Germany the increasing demands on the Unit were such that recruiting was needed and I suggested that a Germany wing be formed ………. There was an element of military training for all my staff [NBC, exercises, Harrier deployments etc] and they tended to be younger, fitter and more adaptable. Thus my deputy became a Wg Cdr and a couple of S Met Os became Sqn Ldrs, and half a dozen other staff were commissioned. I now had a hand in who was to be deployed and when, so moving the holes around became in-house.

Where does Port come into the MMU? Seen from the outside, the MMU were a hard-drinking, hard-living bundle of fun, and Port was their tipple of choice after a few wets of ale or red biddy. They worked outrageously long hours for very long detachments in a variety of very unpleasant places, and richly deserved their fine arrays of campaign medals, the odd MBE and many Air Efficiency awards.

In 2000 the MMU became a Sponsored Reserve Unit and I think were incorporated in Tac Comms Wing. Thereafter I know very little, but wish the lads and lasses of the MMU all the best.

I raise a glass of Port to the lovable rogues of the MMU, wherever they may be.

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Old 19th Apr 2024, 16:05
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Originally Posted by ICM
LB: Roger Palin was Sandy Wilson's predecessor as CinC RAFG. And like you, I had no difficulties with Sandy during his tour as CinC. Now, in the spirit of thread drift already in evidence here, perhaps I could add that I also had dealings with his wife. I was one of the living-in officers in the Mess and, early one year, I was approached by a living-in Scots colleague who said that Sandy wanted a very special Burns Night that year, that he had been appointed to ensure that happened, and that myself and a young lady from the Civil Secretariat (also a living-in Mess member) would be required to do a bit of singing as we were both members of the local Choral Society. Having said we'd be delighted, it emerged next day that Lady Wilson would be our accompanist and that we were summoned to The Residence for rehearsals. Having been warned by others that Lady W was a formidable woman, we duly pitched up as instructed, to find that this was as much an audition as a rehearsal. Suffice it to say that we passed the audition and were then extensively rehearsed in a couple of Burns' songs - I believe Lady Wilson had been a music teacher in her earlier years. Happily all went well on the night! I'd add in passing that Sandy's PSO was Stu Peach, a Nav, later to be come CDS and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee. By contrast, Sandy's progress after RAFG was, of course, blighted by the furore in the press that developed after his return to the UK as AMP.
I seem to recall that Peach was / is not tall, neither am I. My first deployment from Gutersloh c 1969 as [S Met O 1 BR Corp's unenthusiastic deputy] caused me to drive to Bielefeld to be kitted out for an Exercise in the Teutoburgerwald, When it came to trousers, the QM had none short enough in the leg [the gut was OK].
"Isn't there anybody in the army my size?"
"Yessir! He came in for that pair this morning"
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Old 19th Apr 2024, 18:40
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The Night Manager.

Gutersloh Met in the late 60s through to about 1983 was under the guidance and supervision of the Main Met Office at JHQ, manned by elderly cautious and hesitant old gents ...... we believed.
TAFs etc issued by the outstations were subject to scrutiny and sometimes peremptory adjustment. Occasionally JHQ was correct.
As there were about the same number of old boys at JHQ as at Gutersloh, it often happened that one's opposite man remained the same for weeks on end.
One such was Arthur, a pessimist's pessimist. Almost all of my output for the period 0300 to 0830 would be complete in draft form by 0230, at which time Arthur would phone Langley "to discuss the situation and how it would evolve". This was an exercise in picking Langley's brain cells for clues. Whilst agreeing in principle "I think you have grasped it Langley" grave notes of caution and caveats were then forthcoming.
It would now be more like 0330 and Langley was going to have to get his ar$e in gear to convert draft into output.
"Well I don't know about you Langley but I've got work to do".

The official guidance would then usually be at least one colour state worse than the Gutersloh version, where the office typewriter and Banda machine would be running hot to catch up.

Revenge being sweet, at the annual 'JHQ Met. versus the outstations finest' saw LB [brought on to do some off-breaks and off-cutters out of desperation] dismissed a batsman with one that went straight through. In came Arthur, with much ritual guard marking and bat twirling. The off-break that richocheted off his box and took a bail turned more than any of mine before or since. Arthur trudged off, white-faced and counting the family jewels.
Gotcha.
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Old 22nd Apr 2024, 14:30
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More on MMU, Ascension, Falklands ...... even S Georgia ....... in the pipeline.

My correspondent was in the thick of events so I will paste his account probably in instalments.

Meantime, back to BFG mid 1990s.
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Old 22nd Apr 2024, 16:12
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Measuring performance: a little tiresome theory.
Back in my early Bawtry days around 1982 I entered the unpopularity stakes and did very well indeed.

There were eleven stations, some were 24/7, some were open only for flying and/ or teaching There was a total of about 50 weather forecasters.
But were they good at forecasting ....... were some stations uniformly good, some bad, and were some individuals better than others?

I don't think P Met Os anywhere had dared to go beyond forming impressions, there was no useful literature, and yet I was supposed to write annual staff reports, and conduct annual inspections of each office.

The simplest yardstick I could think of was the forecast of the night minimum temperature: this was a most important task, having a bearing on many variables such as ice, frost, snow versus rain, fog formation and half a dozen more. Thus an Order was issued, followed by howls of outrage. For example, Binbrook was said to be more difficult. For another example, how could a new boy compete with someone on station for ten years?

In the words of Butch Harris, "we shall see".

Every office was required to submit an unequivocal forecast for the following night at/by 1400 local time. The Main Met Office collected these and logged them. At this early stage "no names, no pack drill", no animals were harmed during this production. After a few months the patterns emerged. Yes, Binbrook was a b8gger, get the cloud or wind a little wrong and a 2 or 3 degree error was inevitable. Yes Finningley was close to +/- one degree very often. After a settling in period the resuts for each month were published, including means, standard deviations and a few case studies.

Meanwhile a curious process was emerging: S Met Os were paying a lot more attention to their duty forecaster's submissions, people were trying harder, and the station mean errors and deviations were slowly driven down, a little here, a little there. The S Met Os were also forming their own opinions on the skills of their team, and a few surprises emerged ....... new boys sometimes consistently outperformed the old lags. Because S Met O wanted better team results, the old lags had their ears bent.

The scheme ran for about three years and the results stopped improving. My belief was that the Group had probably reached the stage where only better computer guidance could drive better results. One factoid emerged; late October/ early November were the difficult months. This is probably the combination of lingering summer high moisture content, and early winter longer nights and rapid cooling. The way to earn a reputtation as an ace was to take a big chunk of annual leave.

Nearly ten years later a nasty rumour reached me in BFG: the Met. Office was going to introduce a scheme whereby the accuracy of outstation forecasts had to be measured. My assumption was that anything originating in Bracknell would be one size fits all, and was to be resisted. The old Bawtry method was not well-tuned to customer requirements, so we focussed on what the users said was most important. Essentially this was the two components of the Colour State, being cloud base/ amount, and visibility. Just about every squadron in RAFG and Detmold kept a Colour Board, it was the lingua franca of NATO NW Europe decision making and flying. Thus we got our revenge in first, and successfully pleaded to avoid the complexities of wind speed and direction, precipitation and plagues of frogs.

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Old 22nd Apr 2024, 17:26
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Interesting stuff. Was that the grass min or air min temp ?

Just wonderin'

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Old 22nd Apr 2024, 17:37
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An interesting experiment LB, and my comment as an ex military/civil pilot is, and why not? In the RAF, in addition to being the recipient of an annual report ("This Officer will go through life pushing doors marked pull", etc) as a Transport Pilot I was subject to simulator and route checks as well as day and night handling checks within the circuit. All this fed into your Categorisation standard which could wax or wain accordingly. The annual medical added to the cull. Similar regular assessments continued in civvie street. No complaints! The unsuspecting travellers that entrust their fate to us deserve nothing less. Other professions however seem to have an altogether easier time of it, even those who similarly hold your life in their hands. Doctors, it could be said, can only kill you off one at a time, but some have managed quite a few before being challenged, let alone struck off. Lawyers, both Solicitors and Barristers, can wreck many lives by their incompetence without getting grounded. And so on and so on.

What about meteorologists, then? Is it simply down to such as you, LB, to sort the wheat from the chaff, or is there some formal annual 'check ride' to monitor if one's knowledge is up to date and sound, and you are able to 'get it right'? I dare say PSV and HGV drivers get sound checks too, together with regular medical examinations. I suspect pilots are grouped rather more with them than with the 'true professionals'. More in common with Camel Drivers perhaps than the the Sheiks? Not that I have a chip on my shoulder at all, you understand?
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Old 22nd Apr 2024, 17:42
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Originally Posted by B Fraser
Interesting stuff. Was that the grass min or air min temp ?

Just wonderin'

Air min.
Incidentally right now eastern England is clocking up astonishing rainfall stats: "rain days" [just a trace, or more] about 6 days more than the long term 30 year average in Feb, about ten days more than long term in March, and it looks like another very large anomaly this April.
No wonder people are grumpy .................
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Old 22nd Apr 2024, 17:52
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Originally Posted by Chugalug2
An interesting experiment LB, and my comment as an ex military/civil pilot is, and why not? In the RAF, in addition to being the recipient of an annual report ("This Officer will go through life pushing doors marked pull", etc) as a Transport Pilot I was subject to simulator and route checks as well as day and night handling checks within the circuit. All this fed into your Categorisation standard which could wax or wain accordingly. The annual medical added to the cull. Similar regular assessments continued in civvie street. No complaints! The unsuspecting travellers that entrust their fate to us deserve nothing less. Other professions however seem to have an altogether easier time of it, even those who similarly hold your life in their hands. Doctors, it could be said, can only kill you off one at a time, but some have managed quite a few before being challenged, let alone struck off. Lawyers, both Solicitors and Barristers, can wreck many lives by their incompetence without getting grounded. And so on and so on.

What about meteorologists, then? Is it simply down to such as you, LB, to sort the wheat from the chaff, or is there some formal annual 'check ride' to monitor if one's knowledge is up to date and sound, and you are able to 'get it right'? I dare say PSV and HGV drivers get sound checks too, together with regular medical examinations. I suspect pilots are grouped rather more with them than with the 'true professionals'. More in common with Camel Drivers perhaps than the the Sheiks? Not that I have a chip on my shoulder at all, you understand?
As of 1997 when I handed in the seaweed, there was no systematic check ride, and no systematic knowledge check. A very difficult process to invent and apply ................ some weather is easy, some is difficult. Reputations were built slowly. The terrifying aspect in retrospect is that annual reports were not seen by the victim until halfway through my time.. "This officer has the charisma of a cucumber". "I would not breed from this man". "When we employed Langley we deprived his village of its idiot".
Open reporting using a 1st and 2nd reporting officer, a debrief, and "what you need to do to get a better report" was introduced c. 1980 [???] and, honestly tackled, has to be the way to go.

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Old 23rd Apr 2024, 04:24
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Congratulations Langley on a most interesting thread. Your reflections from a different perspective are turning into a real page turner. The subject of managing performance in your last thread is also one close to my heart. What gets measured gets done is a basic tenet of management. How to do this in a fair but effective way is always the question. Successful organizations are to be found across a range from Elon Musk‘s extreme application of perform or get fired to the more social approach we mostly find in Europe. When the result of individual performance can have an immediate catastrophic effect it is of course all the more important to get it right. I look forward to more interesting installments.
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Old 23rd Apr 2024, 08:58
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LB

Thanks for the memories

Definitely our favourite met person was the lady in Plovdiv who was drop dead gorgeous - never had our Captain taken such an interest in meteorology !Unfortunately her forecasts were consistently rubbish !

Runner up was the lovely girl at Waddo who had an oversized bust and went bright red when she announced that a large warm front was approaching from the west !

A call to the met office would have been useful when the duty flight commander ,watching Man Utd playing soccer in the ready room, noticed that it was beginning to snow heavily ,and immediately started the process of recalling all the airborne Vulcans - until we pointed out that the match was being played in Poland!

Keep up the good work - can you find us some decent weather please - there’s a b cold Northerly blowing today -think that it must have been the wettest winter here on record?
At least we no longer have smog up here on the ridge since coal fires were banned and the smoke used to rise up from Lincoln.
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Old 23rd Apr 2024, 11:00
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[QUOTE=mahogany bob;11641150]LB

Runner up was the lovely girl at Waddo who had an oversized bust and went bright red when she announced that a large warm front was approaching from the west .

She was one of the very handsome young ladies at Bawtry back in the day. They were all ambitious assistants, studying A Levels and became forecasters. Being boss at Bawtry was rather pleasant.

Keep up the good work - can you find us some decent weather please - there’s a b cold Northerly blowing today -think that it must have been the wettest winter here on record?
I would if I could, we are thoroughly hacked off ....... forecasts of 10% chance rain ALWAYS produce some rain here in S Lincs. Matters have slipped in my absence.
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Old 23rd Apr 2024, 11:18
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For those who want to know how bl**dy awful Jan Feb Mar have been, play with:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/researc...d-anomaly-maps

April is going to be as bad.

Oh! to be in England.
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Old 23rd Apr 2024, 15:51
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LB: Wondering where the thread may go next. Noting you appear to have retired in 1997, did you stay at Rheindahlen after April 1993 when RAFG became HQ 2 Group, or was your Senior Met O post no longer appropriate?

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Old 23rd Apr 2024, 15:57
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Originally Posted by ICM
LB: Wondering where the thread may go next. Noting you appear to have retired in 1997, did you stay at Rheindahlen after April 1993 when RAFG became HQ 2 Group, or was your Senior Met O post no longer appropriate?
Spoiler alert

I stayed for as long as there was a worthwhile job [managing withdrawal essentially] and then the last couple of years were fascinating.
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