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NATO vs Russia

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Old 25th May 2024, 19:55
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I would lay safe odds, Russia will strike a NATO country this year.
I hope to God I loose. NATO are totally unprepared. I say hit them, before they hit us. It would have been unthinkable to me to suggest this previously. Not now.
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Old 25th May 2024, 20:07
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If we (NATO) were as unprepared as you claim, we’re hardly likely to ‘hit them first’. Interested to know how you corroborate that claim?
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Old 25th May 2024, 20:18
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NATO is a defensive alliance, a pre-emptive strike would put the lie to that.
Seeing how the badly the Russians have fared against Ukraine, how likely is it that they would or could open a second front, especially against a NATO country?
Moreover, how likely is it that such a strike would catch NATO by surprise?
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Old 25th May 2024, 20:23
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Originally Posted by RichardJones
I would lay safe odds, Russia will strike a NATO country this year.
I hope to God I loose. NATO are totally unprepared. I say hit them, before they hit us. It would have been unthinkable to me to suggest this previously. Not now.
Why do you think NATO are 'totally unprepared'? Do you know exactly what NATO assets are positioned where? Do you know their state of readiness? Do you know the reinforcement plans to activate if necessary? Do you know about all the intelligence sources available to warn of such an attack? Do you know what messages have been communicated to the Kremlin about the consequences for Russia of an attack. Do you know how Russia will assemble the forces for an attack without anybody noticing? I think your comment Is ill-informed and naive. The only attack Russia is capable of launching would be to start a pointless and self-destructive nuclear war. You will lose your bet, not loose it.
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Old 25th May 2024, 21:07
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Yes all good stuff course

Putrid has said Russia is at War with the West. What part of that is not understood
If that is not a declaration of War I domt know what is.
it's not exactly rocket science, is it?
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Old 25th May 2024, 21:14
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Russia is losing to Ukraine. Striking a NATO country would hasten their defeat. I remember a US General saying he could destroy Russian forces in a week or two. They certainly have the kit to do it.
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Old 25th May 2024, 21:22
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Both sides have the kit to destroy each other, several times over.
Dont forget China and Kim Jong would be waiting in the wings. I can't see them siding with NATO.
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Old 25th May 2024, 22:06
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Originally Posted by RichardJones
Both sides have the kit to destroy each other, several times over.
Dont forget China and Kim Jong would be waiting in the wings. I can't see them siding with NATO.
No ones dealing the nuclear option. Russia will be defeated conventionally.
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Old 25th May 2024, 22:11
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Originally Posted by artee
It will be interesting to see Putin's reaction if/when Xi decides to make Russia's/China's maritime boundaries more "accurate".
I may be wrong, but I don’t think that China and Russia have a common maritime, i.e. sea, boundary
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Old 25th May 2024, 22:45
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Video… The Baltic nations now understand they are next on Putin's acqusition list and fighting them in Ukraine is better than fighting them in Talinn, Riga and Vilnius..again.

Lithuania announces intention to likely deploy troops to Ukraine.
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Old 26th May 2024, 03:16
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Originally Posted by judyjudy
I may be wrong, but I don’t think that China and Russia have a common maritime, i.e. sea, boundary
Oops!
You're such a pedant
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Old 26th May 2024, 05:13
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May I suggest you look at Russia’s pacific coastline and fleet? And of course China’s interest in free passage along Russia’s arctic coast to Europe as and when it becomes Ice-free.

Allies now, but always in the past, and perhaps the future.

https://www.ankasam.org/the-role-and...ategy/?lang=en

Last edited by ORAC; 26th May 2024 at 10:17. Reason: Sp
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Old 26th May 2024, 06:56
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Several EU countries agreed to build a "drone wall" on the border with Russia

Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite announced this after a meeting with the interior ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Poland, and Norway.

"This is a completely new thing - a wall of drones extending from Norway to Poland - and its goal is to use drones and other technologies to protect our borders from provocations by unfriendly countries and to prevent smuggling," Bilotaite said after the meeting.
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Old 26th May 2024, 08:09
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Originally Posted by RichardJones
Yes all good stuff course

Putrid has said Russia is at War with the West. What part of that is not understood
If that is not a declaration of War I domt know what is.
it's not exactly rocket science, is it?
To whom has Putin said it? As far as I am concerned, that is for internal consumption to justify his actions and lack of progress in Ukraine.
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Old 26th May 2024, 09:43
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
To whom has Putin said it? As far as I am concerned, that is for internal consumption to justify his actions and lack of progress in Ukraine.
He has also stated, if Russia was "threatened", they would use Nuclear weapons.
He would use them without hesitation. So a first strike option is not as stupid as it may seem.
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Old 26th May 2024, 09:59
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Even Putin isnt that stupid..he knows if the nuke button was pressed by him, its game over ..for everyone...
His nuclear threat has been said many times over the last 2 years, its just an empty threat, to make his compatriots feel a bit better...
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Old 26th May 2024, 10:03
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Originally Posted by RichardJones
He has also stated, if Russia was "threatened", they would use Nuclear weapons.
He would use them without hesitation. So a first strike option is not as stupid as it may seem.
Threatened in this context suggests an attack on the motherland where the existence of the state is at risk. That is clearly not the case at present. Even strikes on military and logistic targets associated with the ongoing campaign do not fall into that category.
Given the guaranteed destruction of much of the motherland that would result, I believe he would hesitate until he saw is no option, and the decision is not his alone.
The current NATO strategy seems to be to let him exhaust his military and economic resources against Ukraine. If he attempts to open a second front, which would appear to be foolhardy in his current circumstances, then I think NATO would try to contain and destroy his forces rather than launch an all out retaliation.
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Old 26th May 2024, 11:02
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Originally Posted by RichardJones
He has also stated, if Russia was "threatened", they would use Nuclear weapons.
He would use them without hesitation. So a first strike option is not as stupid as it may seem.
That has been the position ever since the USSR acquired nuclear weapons yet here we all are. However much you want it, NATO is not going to attack Russia and they are in no position to attack any NATO country, particularly with the increased preparedness caused by Putin's Ukraine adventure.
It is painful to see the suffering Russia is causing in Ukraine, but ultimately it is Russia that is being weakened, not the West, and if support is maintained I believe Russia will eventually be forced to retreat. Ukraine will then have done us all an enormous favour and will deserve all the breaks we can give it to repair the damage and recover. What the future holds for Russia and it's federation is much less certain.
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Old 26th May 2024, 11:43
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Well said.i do hope you are correct.
However Putin has been a KGB torturer and a thug. He will always be an aggressor and a bully.
He will have to be taken out. Fom within? Doubtful.
One cannot reason or negotiate with such mentality. Or could he be made to see reason? He has shown no sign of that until now.
let us not forget, he has a lot of unsavoury friends. Iran, China and of course Kim. He will do as he is told

Last edited by RichardJones; 26th May 2024 at 12:02.
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Old 26th May 2024, 15:53
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An Article 5 response is ultimately an American decision. If Putin were to invade one of the Baltic countries I am not at all confidant that there would be enough political consensus to authorize American boots on the ground. That failure to respond would be the end of NATO credibility, a green light to Putin and a fundamental reordering of the post WW2 power structure.

I have got to think that Putin must be tempted to roll the dice on that as the upside for him is so huge.
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