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NATO vs Russia

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Old 1st June 2026 | 02:27
  #4741 (permalink)  
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60 minute piece on Germany playing catch up with its military. One of their politicians said it well, if there was a problem, we called the US, now they know they need to be responsible for their own defense.
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Old 1st June 2026 | 06:37
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How

Originally Posted by West Coast
Gates was 100% correct as were the US Presidents who largely said the same. Trying to diminish a factual statement by calling it simplistic ain’t gonna hold water. Europe underfunded their defenses and then allowed itself to become energy dependent on an adversary which in turn funded their war in Ukraine.
Europe experimented with Democratic Peace Theory (based on the works of Immanuel Kant and Thomas Paine) France and Germany, long time foes, became interdependent industrial and commercial allies. This process was encouraged by the USA as part of the reconstruction of Europe. Having seen a post (WW 2) war success the same mechanism was applied to post cold war neighbours. For the most part it worked. Except with Russia which experimented with but declined the opportunity to embrace democracy which is a fundamental part of the mechanism. However, much political capital was invested in the experiment so changing policy was not, and still isn't easy.

​​​​​​It was seen as a more prosperous way of establishing and maintaining peace instead of threatening war to maintain peace, with the (peace) dividend that money could be diverted from the armed forces for social considerations (incidentally winning votes). Considable effort was poured into Russia to try to help them to operate in a capitalist world in the order to establish Democratic Peace.
Was this naive or optimistic? Probably both.

So yes, underfunding is simplistic in hindsight, the reasons were much more complex at the time.

Last edited by beardy; 1st June 2026 at 07:57.
Old 1st June 2026 | 12:17
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Originally Posted by beardy
So yes, underfunding is simplistic in hindsight, the reasons were much more complex at the time.
The mechanisms and reasoning behind was ignored with this simplistic view, yet the results well described. Well intended often being the opposite of well done.
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Old 1st June 2026 | 12:33
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Originally Posted by West Coast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWFdBy6H5uo

60 minute piece on Germany playing catch up with its military. One of their politicians said it well, if there was a problem, we called the US, now they know they need to be responsible for their own defense.
If I heard it correctly, the 60 Minutes intro for the segment stated that CBS had originally aired the segment in November 2025. Makes me wonder what policies and program initiatives in the defense sector might be more accelerated at present, given the events since then.


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Old 1st June 2026 | 13:46
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So yes, underfunding is simplistic in hindsight, the reasons were much more complex at the time.
I don’t buy that. Head in the sand would be a better explanation as would willful ignorance of the world around you. The war in Georgia in 2008, the war in Ukraine started in 2014, the sub threshold warfare game of sabotage Russia has been playing with Western Europe should have been more than enough to make anyone in Europe who cared to look aware that you partnered with a foe and not a friend. It however was business as usual with the bear as long as the energy spigot was open, much was ignored.

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Old 1st June 2026 | 19:21
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All this self-righteous indignant frothing and blethering from the US about Europe not pulling its weight (despite the fact it is) is pretty short-sighted (understatement of the decade) if you consider the position the USA would be in if Ruzzia overran Europe and suddenly there was only a bit of water bordered by numerous deep-water ports between Ruzzia and the US.

The introverted little-world blinkerdness of this policy is simply astounding. Have they no sense of self-preservation? Or are they so indoctrinated in their automatically assumed infallibility (intentional joke - see their recent performance in Afghanistan and Iraq against 3rd/4th division opponents) to assume a happy result?
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Old 1st June 2026 | 19:46
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
.......is pretty short-sighted (understatement of the decade) if you consider the position the USA would be in if Ruzzia overran Europe and suddenly there was only a bit of water bordered by numerous deep-water ports between Ruzzia and the US.
Russia can't even overcome Ukraine.

I would love to know how you think that they can win a military offensive in Europe.
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Old 1st June 2026 | 20:22
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Gates was 100% correct as were the US Presidents who largely said the same. Trying to diminish a factual statement by calling it simplistic ain’t gonna hold water. Europe underfunded their defenses and then allowed itself to become energy dependent on an adversary which in turn funded their war in Ukraine.
Do you really think that Russia would have armed to the scale it has (well, did) if it wasn't for the USA's post WW2 stance?

Are you trying to suggest that Russia constructed it's armed force to combat Italy or the UK or France or anyone in Europe?

Do you think that Russia has thousand of nuclear weapons to combat the hundreds of Europe’s?


Europe was the USSR's / Russia’s battleground, not their enemy.
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Old 1st June 2026 | 20:44
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Are you trying to suggest that Russia constructed it's armed force to combat Italy or the UK or France or anyone in Europe?
Pretty sure Ukraine is in Europe, so yes. Could add Georgia but you'll argue it's part of Asia when it's not.
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Old 1st June 2026 | 21:38
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Pretty sure Ukraine is in Europe, so yes. Could add Georgia but you'll argue it's part of Asia when it's not.
So the USSR became a nuclear superpower post WW2 to invade Soviet Ukraine - that doesn't seem to add up somehow.
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Old 1st June 2026 | 22:10
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Russia invaded Ukraine, precisely the opposite of what you're postulating. Wriggle as you might, you won't transfer Europe's failure to provide for its own defense to the US via some bizarre counterfactual diatribe. I'm curious now how you'll next assign blame to the US for Europe's dependency on Russian energy. Tackle that next please.
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Old 2nd June 2026 | 06:29
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Can we please stop this tiresome bickering?
Old 2nd June 2026 | 07:08
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Russia invaded Ukraine, precisely the opposite of what you're postulating. Wriggle as you might, you won't transfer Europe's failure to provide for its own defense to the US via some bizarre counterfactual diatribe. I'm curious now how you'll next assign blame to the US for Europe's dependency on Russian energy. Tackle that next please.
I think what's being suggested is that Europe was the de facto battle ground between Russia and the US. i.e. that the US was going to defend itself in Europe. I don't mean that was an evil strategy or anything but that it is of course better to do your fighting as far away from home as possible. The Russians obviously responded to this by building a huge force. The US could have chosen not to spend all that money and risk having Russian effort concentrated on other things.
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Old 2nd June 2026 | 08:06
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FT: https://archive.is/20260602041233/ht...1-5dc053c6c214

US in talks to expand nuclear weapons deployments in Europe

Washington has signalled openness to additional countries hosting nuclear-capable bombers

The US is discussing whether to deploy nuclear weapons in additional European Nato states, in a move intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support does not weaken security guarantees.

US officials have signalled openness to additional deployments beyond the existing six countries hosting nuclear-capable bombers, three people briefed on the discussions told the FT.

The talks, which are highly confidential and may not lead to any changes in nuclear-sharing arrangements, come amid widespread concern in Europe over Donald Trump’s moves to remove US troops and critical weapons systems from the continent. It would potentially allow more countries to host so-called US dual-capable aircraft (DCA), which are able to deliver nuclear strikes.

Two of the people said the openness to discussing an expansion was intended to show the US commitment to providing a nuclear umbrella even as Nato allies were pushed to shoulder more of the conventional defence burden.

Countries on Nato’s eastern flank including Poland and some Baltic states were interested in potentially hosting DCA bases, the people said.

Polish officials have in particular spoken publicly about a desire to host nuclear weapons. Former president Andrzej Duda called for the US to expand the DCA initiative to its soil, while Warsaw this year joined a new French initiative to explore the potential of temporarily moving parts of its nuclear deterrent to allied European countries for the first time.

Discussions were ongoing in Nato channels, said one person familiar with the discussions, adding that allies closest to Russia’s borders had shown the most interest. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and repeated remarks by President Vladimir Putin about the Kremlin’s nuclear capabilities had catalysed interest among some allies in playing host to DCA, they added.

A second person familiar with the discussions said that an agreement to expand US nuclear hosting was not imminent.

Nato’s nuclear sharing programme involves allies — currently Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and the UK — approved to host US DCA and “forward-deployed” nuclear bombs. These are under US protection, with Washington retaining sole authorisation for their use.

Drawn up during the cold war, Nato says the arrangement “provide a platform to non-nuclear Nato Allies to shape the Alliance’s nuclear policy and planning as a mean to guarantee their security without acquiring nuclear weapons”.

US nuclear weapons deployed to European states are stored and guarded by US troops. Allied nations’ assigned air groups, using F-35, F-15 and Tornado jets, are trained to participate in exercises and missions to demonstrate force posture, and ultimately deploy the bombs when authorised by the US.

Recent moves by the Trump administration to cancel planned deployments of key weapons systems to Europe and announce troop withdrawals as part of a move to shift more military assets to Asia and other regions have startled some Nato allies. They fear it will leave gaps in the continent’s defences and ability to deter or repel any attack.

While European allies have committed to drastically increasing their defence spending and investments in key conventional military capabilities currently provided to them by the US, the nuclear umbrella is considered irreplaceable.

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said after a meeting of alliance foreign ministers last month that there was a “common understanding that whilst the US will pivot more towards other theatres . . . the overall deterrence and defence in Europe has to stay the same”.

“Let me be crystal clear . . . Were anyone to be foolish as to attack us, the response would be devastating,” Rutte said.
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Old 2nd June 2026 | 13:39
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Originally Posted by t43562
I think what's being suggested is that Europe was the de facto battle ground between Russia and the US. i.e. that the US was going to defend itself in Europe. I don't mean that was an evil strategy or anything but that it is of course better to do your fighting as far away from home as possible. The Russians obviously responded to this by building a huge force. The US could have chosen not to spend all that money and risk having Russian effort concentrated on other things.
This still doesn't explain why Europe underfunded it defenses. Europe took the peace dividend concept a little too far.
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Old 2nd June 2026 | 14:08
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Originally Posted by West Coast
This still doesn't explain why Europe underfunded it defenses. Europe took the peace dividend concept a little too far.
.................... and, to be honest, some places in Europe are still faffing on!!!!

From ORACs post on the US nuclear umbrella a couple posts back from here (#4754):- ".....While European allies have committed to drastically increasing their defence spending and investments in key conventional military capabilities currently provided to them by the US ....."

From where I'm sat (in the UK) I think you can safely count the UK out re "drastically increasing their defence spending"!

The much-vaunted Defence Investment Plan is approaching 6 months overdue and, even when it's finally published (whenever that actually happens - latest guestimate is just ahead of next months NATO summit) I suspect it will simply promise "jam tomorrow" ........ with "tomorrow" never actually being defined!

Apparently the Defence Minister, Luke Pollard, has said the government has signed "1,200 major defence deals" since the general election in July 2024. I've just checked and, yes, fear not, there is no shortage whatsoever of paper-clips in the Stationery cupboard so we're absolutely fine Chaps and Chapesses!!!!

Last edited by Hot 'n' High; 2nd June 2026 at 14:18.
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Old 2nd June 2026 | 15:16
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Originally Posted by West Coast
This still doesn't explain why Europe underfunded it defenses. Europe took the peace dividend concept a little too far.
I think most Governments were reluctant to tell their population the truth (knowing that the average voting public wouldn't have been ecstatic over this message) and were hoping all would be well. Hope is a well established and tried and tested operational principle. In many walks of life.
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Old 2nd June 2026 | 15:38
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Originally Posted by henra
I think most Governments were reluctant to tell their population the truth (knowing that the average voting public wouldn't have been ecstatic over this message) and were hoping all would be well. Hope is a well established and tried and tested operational principle. In many walks of life.
I think that the issue that the European Governments face is that they are doing everything to deny the fact that their economies are not growing (and have little prospect of growing) so they are either going to have to cut social benefits given to voters or tax them even more to pay for the unavoidable increase in defense obligations and expense.
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Old 2nd June 2026 | 23:16
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Originally Posted by henra
I think most Governments were reluctant to tell their population the truth (knowing that the average voting public wouldn't have been ecstatic over this message) and were hoping all would be well. Hope is a well established and tried and tested operational principle. In many walks of life.
2014 the boogeyman emerged again, no issue with public buy in, at least with the ones who were reachable. This race to re-arm started much later.
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Old 3rd June 2026 | 01:52
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Norway signing up to be under the French nuclear umbrella has me curious. Why, if the reason is known does one NATO nation need sign up for nuclear protection from another NATO nation when Article V should already do that. An attack on one is an attack on all, cept for no nukes unless you've signed an additional agreement?
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