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NATO vs Russia

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Old 16th May 2024, 20:26
  #381 (permalink)  
 
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Excuse me....but you not be addressing your comments to the Russians instead of Americans?

Last time I checked it was the Russians that had sent their tanks to somewhere without permission.

Or...did you simply ignore that small fact out of Pavlov like reaction to the mention of Trump's name?
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Old 16th May 2024, 21:09
  #382 (permalink)  
 
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That was the point I made to the students. It your plan involves your forces in other countries, then you have to talk to that country and allow for that in the planning. Their plan just assumed some sort of divine right to move forces around as they saw fit. Trump was still a minor TV personality then.
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Old 16th May 2024, 21:10
  #383 (permalink)  
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Gentlemen, please! No fighting in the War Room! This is the NATO vs Russia thread, not US politics nor UK / EU / US bickering.
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Old 16th May 2024, 21:12
  #384 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed. Friends should be able to take a little light criticism.
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Old 16th May 2024, 23:42
  #385 (permalink)  
 
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For henra
I see your point about nukes, but the NPT is dead. If Pakistan has them, I have no issue at all with Germans having them. De Gaulle's independent nuclear posture is looking more prescient by the day.

For Saab:
Let's see, who dragged Trump into this?
Safetypee. Location=UK.
Europe not paying into the NATO common coffers sufficiently to satisfy Washington, where the treaty was signed, goes back to Ike.
It's an old story, basically as old as NATO, back when it was the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact Russia on the other side of the line.
That leaching habit was as obvious as a dog's balls when I was in NATO in the 90's.
There was one A-side. The US.
There was maybe a B-side or two.
The rest began as C-sides.
As the CIS was all that was left, and the Partnership for Peace was one of the promising initiatives ongoing, and we (NATO) were working with the Russians in Northern Bosnia, the friction subsided for a bit.

Now the setting is different. The pressure is on.
On the bright side, Sweden and Finland are now on side, which is a silver lining to the cloud.
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Old 17th May 2024, 01:31
  #386 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Come off it Lonewolf 50, you know the US likes to be needed and tell other folk what to do. The more other nations get to be able to do it alone, the less the hold you have in them.
Europe has become very comfortable in the subservient mode, you agree?
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Old 17th May 2024, 07:16
  #387 (permalink)  
 
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"On the bright side, Sweden and Finland are now on side, which is a silver lining to the cloud."

Exactly - a major change in pressure on Russia - they used to rule the Baltic - now they're trapped into two tiny areas of beach
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Old 17th May 2024, 07:47
  #388 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
......................... Now the setting is different. The pressure is on. On the bright side, Sweden and Finland are now on side, which is a silver lining to the cloud.
One thing that's worried me a bit re NATO are some of the ex-Warsaw Pact countries who joined 99 - 04 and even Türkiye given their position on the war in Ukraine. Like any family, the more members that are gathered in the room, the more likely spats will break out leading to a less than united front. And, given the legacy of the old USSR/Warsaw Pact which still pervades (certainly in the Kremlin), some of the NATO "family" will undoubtedly have similar factions in their own political arenas. We have seen some of that already. And on a security front too............

No conclusions drawn ....... merely H 'n' H pondering "life, the universe and NATO"!

I'd be interested in any observations ....... tho, maybe PPRuNe is not the place .......
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Old 17th May 2024, 08:37
  #389 (permalink)  
 
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Fear not, Putin’s stunning cunning plans will keep waking NATO, drawing them further together.
Comrade P, creating his own worst nightmare.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 17th May 2024 at 16:12.
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Old 17th May 2024, 10:54
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I perhaps came away from Maxwell with a different perspective. Have you ever heard the phrase American Imperialism? That is where I met it writ large when working with he students. I was able to enlighten then and explain being American does not actually give you an automatic right to move armoured divisions into other countries just because you feel like it.
You're Charles de Gaulle, and I claim my £5.
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Old 17th May 2024, 11:42
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Europe has become very comfortable in the subservient mode, you agree?
It certainly suited some countries to let American stars sit in the expensive seats behind the big desks in NATO. Expect some difficulties if the cash ratios change.
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Old 17th May 2024, 13:09
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Originally Posted by Hot 'n' High
One thing that's worried me a bit re NATO are some of the ex-Warsaw Pact countries who joined 99 - 04 and even Türkiye given their position on the war in Ukraine. Like any family, the more members that are gathered in the room, the more likely spats will break out leading to a less than united front. And, given the legacy of the old USSR/Warsaw Pact which still pervades (certainly in the Kremlin), some of the NATO "family" will undoubtedly have similar factions in their own political arenas. We have seen some of that already. And on a security front too............
No conclusions drawn ....... merely H 'n' H pondering "life, the universe and NATO"!
I'd be interested in any observations ....... tho, maybe PPRuNe is not the place .......
Maybe on JB. Each nation is entitled to its own take on a crisis. If you look at the responses to the civil war in Yugoslavia, which ended up in NATO's first out of area operation, the responses were mixed - in part due to how any response was going to be received in Russia.
That's part of the fun with 16 or 19 nations, even more fun with 32. Herding cats.
Originally Posted by Ninthace
It certainly suited some countries to let American stars sit in the expensive seats behind the big desks in NATO. Expect some difficulties if the cash ratios change.
For sure. There was quite the shuffling and tooth sucking when the Spanish agreed to join the Military command structure, likewise when Sarkozy brought France back in (reversing De Gaulle's move) more shuffling was involved.
The NATO game of musical chairs doubtless amuses Vlad and his cronies.

In other news:
A top NATO general says Russian troops don't have the numbers or the skills to mount a strategic breakthrough in Kharkiv (msn.com)

This is one of those "running off at the mouth" things that I wish flag officers and general officers would do less of.
  • A top NATO general says Russia won't be able to achieve a "strategic breakthrough" in Kharkiv.
  • US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli said Russia just doesn't have the numbers or skills to pull it off.
  • Last month, Cavoli told Congress that the Russian army is 15% bigger than when it invaded Ukraine.
And if Vlad's objective is "If I can't have it, nobody can have it, I'll just wreck it" how does that fit into your assessment?
What if the good General is underestimating the opponent? Never happened before has it? Oh, wait, yes it has ...
Maybe this is part of General Baldric's Cavoli's cunning deception plan: appear overconfident! That will fool 'em!

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 17th May 2024 at 13:20.
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Old 17th May 2024, 15:03
  #393 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Maybe on JB. Each nation is entitled to its own take on a crisis. If you look at the responses to the civil war in Yugoslavia, which ended up in NATO's first out of area operation, the responses were mixed - in part due to how any response was going to be received in Russia.
That's part of the fun with 16 or 19 nations, even more fun with 32. Herding cats.
I quite agree that, as you rightly mention, we have seen individual Nations taking a view on events over the years as NATO transitioned away from the old Cold War polarised world into a wider European environment which includes the Ukraine War. But I'm now looking beyond that as per the title to this thread - NATO vs Russia.

Given we seem to be reverting back towards a far more polarised world again with a resurgence of Russia (and China) against the West (certainly that seems to be Valds viewpoint), and given the old Soviet/Russian way of "working from within" to foment discord, what will be the impact on NATOs effectiveness in any NATO vs Russia scenario given that several NATO members have strong historic ties back to Moscow?

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Old 17th May 2024, 15:29
  #394 (permalink)  
 
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Help me here. How friendly is China to Russia? Seems to be a friendship of convenience to be honest favouring China's politics. Wasn't so long ago Russia was invading China.
China needs the Wests money more than it needs Russia's friendship.
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Old 17th May 2024, 16:10
  #395 (permalink)  
 
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China needs Russia as a counter-weight to the USA - if there was no Russia it would be a straight standoff and even Xi knows that probably won't end well for him. The USA saw of the Soviet Union, and it saw of Japan economically. I doubt he thinks they're much use except as a source of raw materials and some advanced military hardware but as long as they are causing a ruckus it divides US attention.
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Old 17th May 2024, 16:19
  #396 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
Help me here. How friendly is China to Russia? Seems to be a friendship of convenience to be honest favouring China's politics. ...........
Good question! I think Asturias56 sums the answer up well.
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Old 17th May 2024, 18:10
  #397 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
China needs Russia as a counter-weight to the USA - if there was no Russia it would be a straight standoff and even Xi knows that probably won't end well for him. The USA saw of the Soviet Union, and it saw of Japan economically. I doubt he thinks they're much use except as a source of raw materials and some advanced military hardware but as long as they are causing a ruckus it divides US attention.
I think the Chinese strategic approach to friendship goes further. Russia's resource rich regions are close to the Chinese today's border. They will be eying basically all territories east of the Urals. Like a good drug dealer they will be best pal until pay- day comes. Then they will take the farm. I wouldn't be surpised if in 10-15 years from now Russia would end at the Ural.
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Old 17th May 2024, 18:16
  #398 (permalink)  
 
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henra: not the first time I've seen that prediction (although the time horizon was about 25 years) but at least that would bound the NATO/Russia problem a bit more tightly.
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Old 17th May 2024, 18:17
  #399 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hot 'n' High
... in any NATO vs Russia scenario given that several NATO members have strong historic ties back to Moscow?
Hungary has already shown how that works.
Turkey has been demonstrating it for about 50 years (see Cyprus among other fun issues).

Not everyone was in favor of NATO expansion but those in favor of it slowly got the support they needed.
The Germans now have their buffer states to the east, so I guess that they are satisfied.
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Old 17th May 2024, 20:47
  #400 (permalink)  

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If anyone has doubts about China's attitude to Russia, read "On the Beach", by Nevil Shute. Basically the account of how the war started. 1957 I believe it was written. Basically what Henra has said. China wants the eastern part of Russia.
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