How Will the War End?
In the case of any cessation of hostilities, I suspect that Russia will be replenishing equipment, munitions and manpower for the next round (see Chechnya).
Ukraine will be doing much of the same plus developing enough home grown long range missile capability to deter Russian missile attacks.
Ukraine will be doing much of the same plus developing enough home grown long range missile capability to deter Russian missile attacks.
I don't expect the shooting to stop until Russia is out of Crimea. Leaving that strategic supply line in place is just an invitation to further massive loss of Ukraine lives. The bridge to Russia will be eliminated and the ability to finish a new one eliminated by controlling Crimea.
Well I don't want to derail the thread and I also don't want to put words into your or anyone's mouth, but I wonder what the 2024 US elections will bring, given that there are several potential candidates at various levels who have suggested that they would not support or continue giving arms to Ukraine if they had the ability to stop it
If that were to happen, then I think the current trajectory of operations would change
If that were to happen, then I think the current trajectory of operations would change
Well, we can either curtail Russia's rolling, rearmament and, expansionism now, or be forced into it later on Russia 's terms
IG
Last edited by Imagegear; 17th Jul 2023 at 04:51.
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Thread Starter
BPF, I think your prediction is as good as any. But it's impossible to believe that Russia, who would end up with exactly the same amount of territory as it had before the war, though this time with a shattered economy, financial ruin, and massive loss of face worldwide, would continue with the same regime. Also hard to believe that Ukraine would accept the 'deal' without some degree of reparations. From what I've just read, rebuilding costs are fast approaching half a trillion dollars.
The war ends in April 2024, Russia's oil production goes offline in December 2023. Russians withdraw from east Ukraine while being pushed. Crimea tries to hold out until southern Russia breaks away from Moscow on a line Kursk to Kazakhstan and declares itself a self governed region. Crimea surrenders. Russia breaks apart into a number of self governed regions. residents of Moscow and St.Petersburg are left asking themselves what just happened, no-one really knows for sure or really cares.
BPF, I think your prediction is as good as any. But it's impossible to believe that Russia, who would end up with exactly the same amount of territory as it had before the war, though this time with a shattered economy, financial ruin, and massive loss of face worldwide, would continue with the same regime. Also hard to believe that Ukraine would accept the 'deal' without some degree of reparations. From what I've just read, rebuilding costs are fast approaching half a trillion dollars.
Overtime the sanctions will get watered down as Business interests agitate for more opportunities to make money in Russia and history will be suitably rewritten so that the Russian POV is a epic victory against NATO and the Western POV will be the West bravely standing up to Russian imperialism.
All this presupposed there is not a "Black Swan" event, like use of tactical nukes, a meltdown at Zaporizia where there is fallout over Europe, a western airplane shot down like what almost happened to the RAF, a Western leader killed on a visit to Kiev etc etc . With any of those all bets are off....
Last edited by Big Pistons Forever; 15th Jul 2023 at 15:29.
Germany started two world wars.
This aggressive behavior only stopped after Germany was defeated and occupied.
Russia has long exhibited the same kind of aggression.
They celebrate themselves as victors in World War II, but were unable to conquer Germany.
Great Britain and France were also not able to do this on their own either.
It was only after the USA intervened that things turned around, Germany was defeated and Russia was saved.
Since then, they celebrate themselves as winners every year. This is not true and it sends a psychologically wrong signal to the Russian population.
Since the end of the Second World War, Russia has repeatedly invaded neighboring countries and spread fear and terror there.
In my view, Russia must be defeated just as definitively as Nazi Germany was in 1945.
After that, Russia must be put under supervision, stamped out the aggressive thinking and acting.
Self-administration can only be permitted again if the fundamentals have changed completely.
Just like they did with Germany after the war.
Of course, this also means that all responsible Russian politicians, military personnel and war criminals belong in court and are tried there, as the nazis were in Nuremberg.
This aggressive behavior only stopped after Germany was defeated and occupied.
Russia has long exhibited the same kind of aggression.
They celebrate themselves as victors in World War II, but were unable to conquer Germany.
Great Britain and France were also not able to do this on their own either.
It was only after the USA intervened that things turned around, Germany was defeated and Russia was saved.
Since then, they celebrate themselves as winners every year. This is not true and it sends a psychologically wrong signal to the Russian population.
Since the end of the Second World War, Russia has repeatedly invaded neighboring countries and spread fear and terror there.
In my view, Russia must be defeated just as definitively as Nazi Germany was in 1945.
After that, Russia must be put under supervision, stamped out the aggressive thinking and acting.
Self-administration can only be permitted again if the fundamentals have changed completely.
Just like they did with Germany after the war.
Of course, this also means that all responsible Russian politicians, military personnel and war criminals belong in court and are tried there, as the nazis were in Nuremberg.
Germany started two world wars.
This aggressive behavior only stopped after Germany was defeated and occupied.
Russia has long exhibited the same kind of aggression.
They celebrate themselves as victors in World War II, but were unable to conquer Germany.
Great Britain and France were also not able to do this on their own either.
It was only after the USA intervened that things turned around, Germany was defeated and Russia was saved.
Since then, they celebrate themselves as winners every year. This is not true and it sends a psychologically wrong signal to the Russian population.
Since the end of the Second World War, Russia has repeatedly invaded neighboring countries and spread fear and terror there.
In my view, Russia must be defeated just as definitively as Nazi Germany was in 1945.
After that, Russia must be put under supervision, stamped out the aggressive thinking and acting.
Self-administration can only be permitted again if the fundamentals have changed completely.
Just like they did with Germany after the war.
Of course, this also means that all responsible Russian politicians, military personnel and war criminals belong in court and are tried there, as the nazis were in Nuremberg.
This aggressive behavior only stopped after Germany was defeated and occupied.
Russia has long exhibited the same kind of aggression.
They celebrate themselves as victors in World War II, but were unable to conquer Germany.
Great Britain and France were also not able to do this on their own either.
It was only after the USA intervened that things turned around, Germany was defeated and Russia was saved.
Since then, they celebrate themselves as winners every year. This is not true and it sends a psychologically wrong signal to the Russian population.
Since the end of the Second World War, Russia has repeatedly invaded neighboring countries and spread fear and terror there.
In my view, Russia must be defeated just as definitively as Nazi Germany was in 1945.
After that, Russia must be put under supervision, stamped out the aggressive thinking and acting.
Self-administration can only be permitted again if the fundamentals have changed completely.
Just like they did with Germany after the war.
Of course, this also means that all responsible Russian politicians, military personnel and war criminals belong in court and are tried there, as the nazis were in Nuremberg.
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This would need China to be aligned with it if this is done via the UN. What sort of deal might China demand to cooperate?
It wouldn't even work with Germany if it had WMD.
I remember Condoleeza Rice, then US secretary, threatening NK with boots on the ground over some issue. Next day, NK responded that they will fire every rocket they have, including nuclear, and they will not care who they hit. Next day, same Condoleeza announces 20 000 tons of rice as a "humanitarian aid".
Just like USA or China thinks of themselves as great, so does Russia. They will not go down quietly. Even with regime change, they will not lose face and deliver their own people to Hague, again same as USA.
I remember Condoleeza Rice, then US secretary, threatening NK with boots on the ground over some issue. Next day, NK responded that they will fire every rocket they have, including nuclear, and they will not care who they hit. Next day, same Condoleeza announces 20 000 tons of rice as a "humanitarian aid".
Just like USA or China thinks of themselves as great, so does Russia. They will not go down quietly. Even with regime change, they will not lose face and deliver their own people to Hague, again same as USA.
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Countries don't make threats, their leaders do. NK didn't threaten launches, Kim Wingding did. (An aside: Condoleeza is a place holder for one of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse.)
NK is actually a greater challenge than its weapons - it has millions of people who cannot function in a modern society due to constant terrorism of their government upon them. Neither China nor South Korea are interested in taking on that massive social challenge particularly with the difficulty in weeding out those who benefited from the previous regime looking for payback at the loss of their position. See Iraq. See also the cultural and economic shock to the West Germans as they worked to reintegrate East Germany.
Germany is far different from Russia. At every step along the way the Germans were following and supporting their government, which was generally supporting them. Redirecting their government post WWII worked because of that, at least for West Germany. East Germany, not so much.
In Russia the government does not appear to have ever supported the general population. It functions mainly as an additional and troublesome burden. They have never had an effective government and they see the problems it causes; no doubt they would resist a government that is effective as that represents the possibility of an even greater burden.
I maintain the main reason to invade Ukraine was the turning of the Ukraine government towards one that could be trusted by the general population and that worked to improve life for them was a huge threat. There were cross-border ties to Russian citizens - family ties - and if those Russians started to see the potential of not being politically oppressed and economically ignored by way of a living example, just across the border, the oligarchs running Russia might lose influence and position. The Russian people eliminated the Czar and his family; what is the difference now?
All they would need is the Russian equivalent of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He wasn't stalwart leading an nation in time of war - he was a guy unhappy with bad government who asked to be allowed to fix it. I'm sure there are several Russians who could manage that - presently worried about what is in their tea, windows prone to opening suddenly, a jab from a passerby, or some residue under the cap of their bottled water. It's not paranoia if they are out to get you. Perhaps the Russian oligarchs will have lost so much money and influence from this they will concede that going legit is a lower long-term risk. It's what built Las Vegas.
NK is actually a greater challenge than its weapons - it has millions of people who cannot function in a modern society due to constant terrorism of their government upon them. Neither China nor South Korea are interested in taking on that massive social challenge particularly with the difficulty in weeding out those who benefited from the previous regime looking for payback at the loss of their position. See Iraq. See also the cultural and economic shock to the West Germans as they worked to reintegrate East Germany.
Germany is far different from Russia. At every step along the way the Germans were following and supporting their government, which was generally supporting them. Redirecting their government post WWII worked because of that, at least for West Germany. East Germany, not so much.
In Russia the government does not appear to have ever supported the general population. It functions mainly as an additional and troublesome burden. They have never had an effective government and they see the problems it causes; no doubt they would resist a government that is effective as that represents the possibility of an even greater burden.
I maintain the main reason to invade Ukraine was the turning of the Ukraine government towards one that could be trusted by the general population and that worked to improve life for them was a huge threat. There were cross-border ties to Russian citizens - family ties - and if those Russians started to see the potential of not being politically oppressed and economically ignored by way of a living example, just across the border, the oligarchs running Russia might lose influence and position. The Russian people eliminated the Czar and his family; what is the difference now?
All they would need is the Russian equivalent of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He wasn't stalwart leading an nation in time of war - he was a guy unhappy with bad government who asked to be allowed to fix it. I'm sure there are several Russians who could manage that - presently worried about what is in their tea, windows prone to opening suddenly, a jab from a passerby, or some residue under the cap of their bottled water. It's not paranoia if they are out to get you. Perhaps the Russian oligarchs will have lost so much money and influence from this they will concede that going legit is a lower long-term risk. It's what built Las Vegas.
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Even more furiously? He is their Leader, has strong National support, so they would be VERY angry. IMO.
It's just so heartbreaking how war destroys not only places but also so many families. I hope war doesn't happen again because it only just leads to death and sadness. Countries should just learn to fix their disputes without thinking of war as the solution because it's just ain't it.
"They celebrate themselves as victors in World War II, but were unable to conquer Germany."
Who captured Berlin? The Russians would have won - it might have taken them another year but they were already half way across Poland in June 1944
Who captured Berlin? The Russians would have won - it might have taken them another year but they were already half way across Poland in June 1944
Has there been any substantial war in the last century or so where the aggressor / invader has ended up expanding their sphere of influence and promoting their national interest? WW1 - no. WW2 - no. Kuwait - no. Iraq - no. Afghanistan (x2) - no. Vietnam - depends on who you think the aggressor even was, but it certainly didn't work out for America, who were "playing away". Chechnya, Georgia, maybe - but could well come undone depending on outcome in Ukraine. Meanwhile peaceful, innovative and entrepreneurial means have lead to the accumulation of huge wealth, influence and power. As an example, Arab nations previously all on board for the destruction of Israel are now looking at the achievements of that nation in terms of economic growth - without oil - and changing their tune to wanting to build bridges and get in on the action before their own game plan dries up.
Sure, you can pick holes in the detail, but are we heading in the general direction for recognition of the ineffectiveness of aggressive mass violence as a means of national policy? If so, has China got the memo?
Sure, you can pick holes in the detail, but are we heading in the general direction for recognition of the ineffectiveness of aggressive mass violence as a means of national policy? If so, has China got the memo?
Abdul Azziz al Saud did a brilliant job of consolidating several tribes and towns into Saudi Arabia over the first half of the previous century.
China rolled into Tibet and continues to increasingly oppress Tibetans and Uighurs.
China rolled into Tibet and continues to increasingly oppress Tibetans and Uighurs.