The war ends in April 2024, Russia's oil production goes offline in December 2023. Russians withdraw from east Ukraine while being pushed. Crimea tries to hold out until southern Russia breaks away from Moscow on a line Kursk to Kazakhstan and declares itself a self governed region. Crimea surrenders. Russia breaks apart into a number of self governed regions. residents of Moscow and St.Petersburg are left asking themselves what just happened, no-one really knows for sure or really cares.