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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 19th May 2023, 21:24
  #861 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
I posted earlier the assssment of the RAF AVM in charge of training who assed the requirement and estimated, after stripping out the peacetime only requirements, around 6 weeks…
6 weeks could be do-able. The studes fly 6 days a week, 2 sorties a day. 7th day relax a bit, study, advanced groundschool.
Minimal duals, and presume no sim.
Week 1 - basic groundschool, fly from Day 3, Fams, GH and formn, IF and letdowns
Week 2 - tactical LL formn and tactics, SAPs, letdowns.
Weeks 3/4 - A/A tactics based on AIM-120, perhaps fire one missile. Some leads.
Weeks 5/6 - A/G weaponry and tactics. More leads.
Return to UKR after 6 weeks trg, probably some 50 hrs in the jet.
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Old 19th May 2023, 21:30
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Old 19th May 2023, 22:25
  #863 (permalink)  
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I. Personally see the main advantage of the F16 is the range of its weapons, the problem Ukraine has with their current fleets is Russia can engage them from a greater distance than Ukraine can, meaning Russia can in effect hold air superiority over the front while Ukraine has to risk both aircraft and pilots in covering their troops without the ability to respond to Russias aircraft.

With the F16 then that disadvantage may be mitigated forcing Russia to deploy their aircraft further back and allowing Ukraine to operate.
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Old 19th May 2023, 22:25
  #864 (permalink)  
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Just when you thought this regime couldn't get any madder. Russia bans 500 Americans over "anti-Russian actions", including, wait for it, "people involved in the persecution of dissidents" who took part in the January 6 storming of the Capitol...

https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1871495/#
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Old 19th May 2023, 22:52
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The de-facto Western fighter embargo of Ukraine by the DC De-escalation faction was one of its last public policy ditches.

Losing the public F-16 embargo fight meant one of the De-escalation crowd had to fall on his sword for the faction's patron.

This has all the hallmarks of an intense internal fight. Lots of signals rhe last few days. The resignation of Colin Kahl, who made the most extreme comments about how long it would take to get F-16s to Ukraine being most obvious
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Old 19th May 2023, 22:54
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The Pentagon’s $3 billion accounting error in security assistance for Ukraine happens to be the maximum dollar amount Colin Kahl estimated 36 used F-16 Block 30/32s would cost. …
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Old 19th May 2023, 23:33
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The Pentagon’s $3 billion accounting error in security assistance for Ukraine happens to be the maximum dollar amount Colin Kahl estimated 36 used F-16 Block 30/32s would cost. …
Does that figure however include everything that would be necessary to support them ?
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Old 20th May 2023, 00:10
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Does that figure however include everything that would be necessary to support them ?

My estimation would be for initial GSE, weapons and spares.
Would not include 20-yr LOT costs - that would be up to UKR, and incoming support (NATO et al).
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Old 20th May 2023, 02:33
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Just when you thought this regime couldn't get any madder. Russia bans 500 Americans over "anti-Russian actions", including, wait for it, "people involved in the persecution of dissidents" who took part in the January 6 storming of the Capitol...

https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1871495/#
To be on Russia's s**t list is a mark of honor, sort of like being on our former president's s**t list.
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Old 20th May 2023, 02:42
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The de-facto Western fighter embargo of Ukraine by the DC De-escalation faction was one of its last public policy ditches.

Losing the public F-16 embargo fight meant one of the De-escalation crowd had to fall on his sword for the faction's patron.

This has all the hallmarks of an intense internal fight. Lots of signals rhe last few days. The resignation of Colin Kahl, who made the most extreme comments about how long it would take to get F-16s to Ukraine being most obvious
Very smart guy. Academic. No military experience. Almost failed confirmation in the Senate.

From Politico: Kahl has also been one of the administration’s top officials making the case against sending U.S.-made F-16 jets to Ukraine, which has been a point of contention between the Biden administration and lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans.

Despite a plea from Kyiv for more advanced jets, Kahl has argued sending F-16s would take years and cost billions of dollars, while noting fighters aren’t Ukraine’s most immediate need.

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Old 20th May 2023, 04:16
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
As I have posted before, I'm uncertain what they can add..,
they signify resolve. Resolve is the fastest way to get the point across to the Kremlin that there is no better option than leaving Ukraine and accepting the consequences of their self inflicted disaster. Despite the RT talking heads hysteria, the existential threat to the RF as a federated state arises from the Kremlin, not Kyiv.

The Kremlin deliberately directed war crimes which were gleefully carried out by the Kremlin's combatants. The Kremlin attacked Ukraine from a 3rd party nation Belarus, and from illegally occupied parts of Ukraine, and remarkably,Ukraine has never reciprocated in an old testament way. 70% of UN member nations have voiced their condemnation of Russia, 5 countries support Russia, the usual despotic 5. Even China condemns Russia's actions and considers the Russian claims of sovereignty that have been purported by the Kremlin to be unrecognised.

Russia needs to get the message that their empire aspirations are out of place with the world, and that comes with a cost to Russia to continue their crime spree.

The F16 is symbolic, A10 and AH1's would have added as much, but having longer range A-A and more lift for A-G is not nothing to the troops sitting in foxholes defending their homeland.

The Ukraine flight crew are combat experienced and just want the tools to do the job that they put their lives on the line for every day. They are committed, and Ukrainians have shown they are adaptable and quick studies. They are motivated beyond belief.

The Kremlin doesn't seem to get the historic message, that apart from being a war crime today, indiscriminate targeting of civilians always acts to increase the resolve of the other side; since Guernica, London, Coventry, Bremen, Frankfurt, Köln, Tokyo, Warsaw, Belgrade etc... the only time a political result followed was with Linebacker II, and that was fragged against military and industrial targets, killed a lot of civilians, and the response from Hanoi stated: "...impress upon Nixon that the bombing was not the reason for this decision", the CPV Politburo told Nixon that "halting the bombing was not a precondition for further talks". Targeting civil populations doesn't win friends or minds, it doesn't break resolve, it always increases it; it is a war crime. The Kremlin signed off on these tenets of civilised behaviour, before they demolished Grozny, then did it again, and then invaded more or less every country nearby that they had treaties with. Is the food at The Hague really that good?

Last edited by fdr; 20th May 2023 at 10:21.
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Old 20th May 2023, 05:14
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Ukraine repels 'massive' drone attack on Kyiv, says military

Kyiv’s air defences successfully repelled a new Russian drone attack overnight but falling debris caused some damage in the Ukrainian capital, the military said on Saturday.

Agence France-Presse reports that the head of Kyiv’s civil and military administration, Serhiy Popko, said in an update on Telegram:

This night, the aggressor again carried out a massive drone attack. All detected air targets were destroyed by the forces and means of our air defence. No strikes on Kyiv were performed!

Falling debris caused a fire in a residential building in Darnytskyi district but it was extinguished without casualties, he said.
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Old 20th May 2023, 05:53
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Ukraine repels 'massive' drone attack on Kyiv, says military
Somewhat reminiscent of Hitler switching to bombing the populace instead of key military targets. Didn't work then & it's not working now. Clearly, just like Adolf's inner circle, nobody is game to tell Vlad that it's just not going to change the resolve of the Ukrainians.
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Old 20th May 2023, 06:04
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​​​​​​​The Wagner mercenary group is reported to be pulling its most experienced members out of Ukraine and sending them to Sudan, with remaining "unnecessary fighters" being left to die in Bakhmut. It may rebrand itself as the "Musicians" or "Orchestra" private military company.
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Old 20th May 2023, 06:35
  #875 (permalink)  
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Nine T-90s taken out by HIMARS in a single strike…

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Old 20th May 2023, 06:44
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Old 20th May 2023, 07:28
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Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets and is open to discussions on their possible transfer, the country's acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on May 19.

Speaking with Danish media outlets DR and Ritzau, Poulsen didn't provide any further details on the training, saying its format would be finalized with allies during the next month.

The Defense Ministry says it is considering donating F-16s to Ukraine. Denmark has 46 F-16s.
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Old 20th May 2023, 08:52
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What a remarkable aeroplane we are discussing. Developed in the '70s as a cheap, light-weight, fighter; introduced into Europe 40 years ago to replace Starfighters, Freedom Fighters and Super Sabres, and it still tops the wish-list of anyone being threatened or oppressed by an evil Galactic Empire. (Speaking of which, it also still makes Star Wars movie props look like movie props).
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Old 20th May 2023, 09:21
  #879 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russia’s woes in building new tanks, repairing or even refurbishing old stocks, optics and ball bearings are all normally sourced from the west, so they have a severe shortage now hence the low output in armour etc.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=120a1f8323f2
Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Does that figure however include everything that would be necessary to support them ?

Surely Poland can do that with most of it as they operate them.
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Old 20th May 2023, 09:25
  #880 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Very smart guy. Academic. No military experience. Almost failed confirmation in the Senate.

From Politico: Kahl has also been one of the administration’s top officials making the case against sending U.S.-made F-16 jets to Ukraine, which has been a point of contention between the Biden administration and lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans.

Despite a plea from Kyiv for more advanced jets, Kahl has argued sending F-16s would take years and cost billions of dollars, while noting fighters aren’t Ukraine’s most immediate need.
if they come from say the boneyard or a recent ANG I cannot see why they would cost billions, they have already been paid for many years ago when initially purchased, all you would lose is residual value. And especially as several European countries are looking at retiring the type, remarkable is the fact that the F16 is the aircraft deemed to be the fighter of choice to go up against both its modernised contemporaries and later Russian models.
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