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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 09:57
  #7541 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
A Russian bmp dragging what looks like a body is hit by a Bradley Tow missile, then is opened up on by the Bradley’s gun.



https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/...16527089790991
What my sniffy elder daughter calls war porn. Like the main news channels she shuts her eyes and puts her fingers in her ears about "such things". That generation have no idea that Ukraine is fighting a just fight, and the "free world" is giving minimalist aid in a war that may yet engulf Europe.

As for war porn I only see the bad guys getting a real beasting. I hope one [only one] gets back to Russia and tells the story.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:06
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Nutloose, @#7538, so-called 'Canadian Prepper' gives off anti-US, pro-Russian vibes, stirring the pot with panic-raising capital letters and obtusely calling Kyiv 'Kiev'.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:08
  #7543 (permalink)  
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The advantage of providing Patriots to Ukraine.

Jan Kallberg, Ph.D.
@Cyberdefensecom
Every Ukrainian downing of Russian hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal with the Patriot missiles will improve the Patriot missile intercept algorithm - and increase accuracy for all Patriot systems, a benefit for the US, the rest of NATO, and other Patriot AD users. The same goes for any RUS aircraft that is shot down. Data quality is high because it is live tested; it is not a desk job or theoretical calculation; this is data from a successful intercept. The value of the data is really high as it can kick the success rate in the long run from, let's say, 85 % to 99 % against a type of target, so if RUS in a continued war launches 20 low-yield tactical nukes using 47M2 Kinzhal against NATO targets, with improved data likely no missile makes it to target. If the data had been unimproved - 3 would have made it through AD and detonated. Therefore, providing UKR with Patriot missiles is an investment in any provider's defense and gives high defense ROI as the improved algorithm upgrades its existing systems.

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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:15
  #7544 (permalink)  
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Lots of reports of her statement in the Ukrainian and Russian press. Quote is taken from an interview the Ukrainian online newspaper Strana.news.

Unfortunately the paper is just in Russian and Ukrainian and I can’t pinpoint the article referenced.

Russian media generally dismissive saying she said the same thing last year and her statement doesn’t reflect WH policy.

https://ctrana.news/

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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:23
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
Indeed, I'm surprised they even tried to go that route.
I'm surprised, given their relative small size, they didn't try and route them via the Rhine and Danube rivers to the Black Sea, but I suppose that would have meant Hungary saying yes as well, and given Orban's stance on Ukraine, that wasn't likely an option either.
That was my first thought, probably no problem length or breadth, but the mast height (and possibly other bits) would be an issue. At least Orban couldn't pray in aid the Montreaux Convention...
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:30
  #7546 (permalink)  
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but I suppose that would have meant Hungary saying yes as well,
And Serbia….

Ukraine is a Danubian state so the second paragraph applies.

The current member states of the Danube Commission are Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Germany, Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine and Croatia.

Russia’s was stripped of it’s membership after the invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.danubecommission.org/dc/...on-the-danube/

Article 30

Navigation of the Danube by the naval vessels of any non-Danubian country shall be prohibited.

The naval vessels of Danubian States may not navigate the Danube beyond the frontiers of the respective countries whose flags they fly save by arrangement between the Danubian States concerned.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:43
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russian army destroy HIMARS………or Russian military kill a field, it might be me but I cannot see squat in either fields.



https://twitter.com/warintel4u/statu...53893431308375
A good analysis of this here:


Seems unlikely that a HIMARS was destroyed.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:43
  #7548 (permalink)  
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Russias aim is getting better, some reports have them downing another of their own fighters.

Do they have IFF? Or is it Identification Foe or Foe?

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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:48
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Thousands of migrants detained in Russia to recruit “volunteers” for war.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/thousands-...teers-for-war/
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 10:54
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This is my worry for Ukraine, if Russia has stockpiled enough Missiles and with the west cutting off supplies.

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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 11:02
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
Indeed, I'm surprised they even tried to go that route.
I'm surprised, given their relative small size, they didn't try and route them via the Rhine and Danube rivers to the Black Sea, but I suppose that would have meant Hungary saying yes as well, and given Orban's stance on Ukraine, that wasn't likely an option either.
'
bridge clearance on the Danube is down to 5.8mtrs, they would need some work to fit the whole way.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 11:06
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
Indeed, I'm surprised they even tried to go that route.
I'm surprised, given their relative small size, they didn't try and route them via the Rhine and Danube rivers to the Black Sea, but I suppose that would have meant Hungary saying yes as well, and given Orban's stance on Ukraine, that wasn't likely an option either.
This seems to be making a mountain out of a molehill. The transfer of the two minesweepers to Ukraine has been in the pipeline since well before the Russian invasion. From that date it will have been obvious to all concerned that actually getting them to the Black Sea would be impossible whilst the war continued and has not been attempted. The Turkish statement is simply a response to inaccurate media reports. That does not prevent the transfer of ownership from being completed as planned and the start of a training programme to prepare the Ukrainian Navy for a vital post-war role.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 11:55
  #7553 (permalink)  
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That does not prevent the transfer of ownership from being completed as planned and the start of a training programme to prepare the Ukrainian Navy for a vital post-war role.
Already all completed, handed over formally in June and completed combat work-up in July.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/n...ith-sea-breeze

https://en.topwar.ru/228685-peredann...obritanii.html

Next batch of sailors now training on Dutch donated minehunters.


https://www.janes.com/defence-news/n...ch-minehunters
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 12:05
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Turkey has blocked the pair of Ukrainian minesweepers entering the Black Sea that were sold by the U.K.
https://twitter.com/paros4/status/1742254366999093315
Turkey was involved in orchestrating the grain deal last year, and the mine sweepers are doubtless aimed at keeping the port cities accessible. They are also small enough to fit within Montreaux Convention tonnage limits.
But, I guess, they are classified as warships.
If they want to pass through the Strait, warships must provide advance notification to the Turkish authorities, which, in turn, must inform the parties to the convention.
In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base
When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit.
While I tend to agree with Video Mixdown on this, I can also appreciate Turkey's caution here.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 12:17
  #7555 (permalink)  
 
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In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base.[8]
Since they ships have never entered the Black Sea before, it is arguable that they returning to base. Are the tonnage limits a peacetime rule?
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 12:20
  #7556 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Since they ships have never entered the Black Sea before, it is arguable that they returning to base. Are the tonnage limits a peacetime rule?
IIRC, yes. My familiarity with Montreaux Convention stems from a few FON ops in the 80's in the Black Sea. (Freedom of Navigation).
We were joined as we sailed about the Black Sea right at the 12 mile limit by a Hungarian Griesha (IIRC) corvette, and then by a Slava Class cruiser and a Krivak FF from the Soviet Navy. Got over flown by Backfires a few times. Good times.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 14:21
  #7557 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
'
bridge clearance on the Danube is down to 5.8mtrs, they would need some work to fit the whole way.
That definitely would preclude the Danube as an option then
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 14:40
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russias aim is getting better, some reports have them downing another of their own fighters.

Do they have IFF? Or is it Identification Foe or Foe?



https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...50712098672742
Clearly their expertise is without question.
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 15:00
  #7559 (permalink)  
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A kill’s a kill….
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Old 3rd Jan 2024, 21:51
  #7560 (permalink)  
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