Armenia and Azerbaijan: possible truce
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Russia is trying to spin the end of the "war" as a triumph for the Russian peace keepers*
Even though their positions were bombed, and they are now awaiting some sort of deal under which will be allowed to leave…..
*
Even though their positions were bombed, and they are now awaiting some sort of deal under which will be allowed to leave…..
*
OK, so a ceasefire has been agreed for the moment.
Nagorno-Karabakh accepts ceasefire proposal made by Russian peacekeepers | CNN
Nagorno-Karabakh accepts ceasefire proposal made by Russian peacekeepers | CNN
Originally Posted by bits from the linked article
The ceasefire was due to begin at 1 p.m. local time (5 a.m. ET) Wednesday, Nagorno-Karabakh’s presidential office announced.
“An agreement was reached on the withdrawal of the remaining units and servicemen of the armed forces of Armenia from the deployment zone of the Russian peacekeeping troops, the dissolution and complete disarmament of the armed formations,” it said in a statement.
Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said it had agreed to suspend its operation, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported.
Azerbaijan said officials would meet representatives of the Armenian community in Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday in the city of Yevlakh, “to discuss reintegration issues under the constitution and laws of Azerbaijan.”
“An agreement was reached on the withdrawal of the remaining units and servicemen of the armed forces of Armenia from the deployment zone of the Russian peacekeeping troops, the dissolution and complete disarmament of the armed formations,” it said in a statement.
Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said it had agreed to suspend its operation, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported.
Azerbaijan said officials would meet representatives of the Armenian community in Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday in the city of Yevlakh, “to discuss reintegration issues under the constitution and laws of Azerbaijan.”
I suspect the Russians know ALL about this conflict - they can keep it boiling away at low level but they're not stupid enough to get directly involved. It dates back years before the Soviet Union - it's like getting into N.Ireland, Yemen or Afghanistan - easy to get in, bloody difficult to get out.
The West isn't involved and is very unlikely to be so - the Russians are more likely to stir up the Turks and the Iranians rather than NATO
The West isn't involved and is very unlikely to be so - the Russians are more likely to stir up the Turks and the Iranians rather than NATO
Russia's military is quite weak, they never want to get directly involved, so will primarily use their standard strategy of confuse, deny and lie to achieve an easy win without ever having to (openly) fire a shot.
Arguably, its been quite successful - Ukraine (2014), Syria, Belarus, but recently failed when NATO derailed their hopes for an easy win in Ukraine.
Pretty much, whatever they say - assume the opposite and you can't go far wrong. "Peacekeepers" you say? "Allies with whom you say?"
At the end of the day, Azerbaijan - an authoritarian state like Russia, is taking land with a "Special Military Operation" and Russian "peacekeepers", while Armenia is surrendering, hosting a NATO exercise and hoping to join the EU...
Arguably, its been quite successful - Ukraine (2014), Syria, Belarus, but recently failed when NATO derailed their hopes for an easy win in Ukraine.
Pretty much, whatever they say - assume the opposite and you can't go far wrong. "Peacekeepers" you say? "Allies with whom you say?"
At the end of the day, Azerbaijan - an authoritarian state like Russia, is taking land with a "Special Military Operation" and Russian "peacekeepers", while Armenia is surrendering, hosting a NATO exercise and hoping to join the EU...
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
BREAKING:
Azerbaijani forces just killed 8 Russian soldiers in Karabakh.
Russia’s Defense Ministry announces that 8 Russian “peace keeping soldiers” have been killed in an Azerbaijani attack on a Russian vehicle in Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijani forces just killed 8 Russian soldiers in Karabakh.
Russia’s Defense Ministry announces that 8 Russian “peace keeping soldiers” have been killed in an Azerbaijani attack on a Russian vehicle in Nagorno-Karabakh
"Armenia is surrendering, hosting a NATO exercise and hoping to join the EU..."
Doubt the latter will ever happen.
Doubt the latter will ever happen.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Ivan Kovgan, the deputy commander of the Russian “peacekeeping contingent” in Karabakh was among the 8 Russian soldiers killed by the Azerbaijani Army yesterday.
Kovgan was also the deputy commander of the submarine forces of the Russian Northern Fleet.
Kovgan was also the deputy commander of the submarine forces of the Russian Northern Fleet.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will travel to Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan on September 25 at the invitation of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
This is likely to fuel concerns that Ankara is pushing its Azerbaijani ally to capture the Zangezur corridor - which could lead to a regional escalation.
This is likely to fuel concerns that Ankara is pushing its Azerbaijani ally to capture the Zangezur corridor - which could lead to a regional escalation.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Azerbaijan's president today: 'Western Zangezur' (i.e. Armenia's Syunik province) was 'unfairly separated' from Azerbaijan by the Soviet Union. A clear irrentist threat for Azerbaijan's next war.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Don't think that this war ends here. Azerbaijan is openly telegraphing their intentions to push further into Armenia itself, especially the country's southern Syunik province (where all the refugees from Karabakh are presently arriving).
As Armenians are leaving Karabakh, right now a public hearing on "Return to West Azerbaijan: Legal aspects" is being held in the Azerbaijani parliament. It was already announced on 22 September
As Armenians are leaving Karabakh, right now a public hearing on "Return to West Azerbaijan: Legal aspects" is being held in the Azerbaijani parliament. It was already announced on 22 September
well the west isn't going to do anything - so it's up to Russia and Iran to support Armenia.... quite odd really
Todays "Times" editorial today reckons the Azeris have looked at Russia's current capability and decided its a great time to move in as Putin can't do anything to stop them.
The Caucasus used to mark the edge of the Tsarist empire, a place of tribal feuds, high-flying birds of prey, of war and exile. Now, as the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave comes ablaze again, as thousands of Armenians take flight from the forces of Azerbaijan, this mountainous region seems to embody the core weakness of its supposed protector, President Putin.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of ethnic Armenians, though it is recognised as being legally part of Azerbaijan. The tensions never disappeared: there was a war in the early 1990s and a second flare-up in 2020 when Azerbaijan used Turkish drones to immobilise Armenia’s Russian-supplied tank army. The Kremlin brokered an armistice and sent in 2,200 Russian peacekeepers.
But the present clash has left the Armenians bitterly disappointed with Moscow. The peacekeepers did little; there seemed to Armenians to be a singular lack of interest in their plight. Demonstrations outside the Russian embassy in Yerevan denounce Mr Putin. Armenians openly speculate that the Russian leader is content to sit back cynically and wait for local anger to turn against the country’s prime minister, the pro-western Nikol Pashinyan. And they calculate that Moscow, entangled in a long, costly war with Ukraine, has no desire to engage in another war on its periphery.
The lesson for Russia’s erstwhile allies is clear: as long as it is engaged in its bloody campaign against Kyiv, it does not have the energy or bandwidth to deter attack elsewhere. If there ever was a Pax Russica it has shrivelled and died in the late Putin era. Mr Putin, viewed from the Russian periphery, is an increasingly unimpressive peacekeeper.
The leadership of Azerbaijan made what must have seemed a rational decision on the basis of observable facts. Mr Putin entertaining North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, a global pariah, in the hope of gaining more artillery shells? A sure indicator that the Russian war machine is faltering. The sudden absence of Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons? Almost certainly the result of Chinese displeasure. So much for the limitless friendship. The mutiny of the Wagner group, the sacking of Russian generals? Unmistakable signs of an internal power struggle. Sporadic Ukrainian attacks on Russian airfields and other deep targets? Disturbing proof of Russian military limitations.
Russia, in other words, is anything but a powerful ally. Two senior US officials, including the head of USAID, Samantha Power, have already landed in Armenia. The point of their mission, apart from assessing the immediate needs of 120,000 ethnic Armenians on the move, was to demonstrate Russia’s limitations as an ally. Under the Russian-led ceasefire the ethnic Armenians of Karabakh agreed after only a day of furious fighting to lay down arms and enter “reintegration” talks with Baku. Azerbaijan says it will provide constitutional protection to ethnic Armenians there who accept its control. But the Armenian government is unlikely to accept those terms.
Mr Putin’s attention has wandered and his lack of loyalty to neighbours and traditional allies like Armenia will be rewarded in kind. The outcome, say Armenian analysts, could be a breakdown in talks and a new broader war, dragging in Turkey, Iran and perhaps even Russia by the end of next month . Wars that kick off in the Caucasus rarely stay in the mountains for long.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of ethnic Armenians, though it is recognised as being legally part of Azerbaijan. The tensions never disappeared: there was a war in the early 1990s and a second flare-up in 2020 when Azerbaijan used Turkish drones to immobilise Armenia’s Russian-supplied tank army. The Kremlin brokered an armistice and sent in 2,200 Russian peacekeepers.
But the present clash has left the Armenians bitterly disappointed with Moscow. The peacekeepers did little; there seemed to Armenians to be a singular lack of interest in their plight. Demonstrations outside the Russian embassy in Yerevan denounce Mr Putin. Armenians openly speculate that the Russian leader is content to sit back cynically and wait for local anger to turn against the country’s prime minister, the pro-western Nikol Pashinyan. And they calculate that Moscow, entangled in a long, costly war with Ukraine, has no desire to engage in another war on its periphery.
The lesson for Russia’s erstwhile allies is clear: as long as it is engaged in its bloody campaign against Kyiv, it does not have the energy or bandwidth to deter attack elsewhere. If there ever was a Pax Russica it has shrivelled and died in the late Putin era. Mr Putin, viewed from the Russian periphery, is an increasingly unimpressive peacekeeper.
The leadership of Azerbaijan made what must have seemed a rational decision on the basis of observable facts. Mr Putin entertaining North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, a global pariah, in the hope of gaining more artillery shells? A sure indicator that the Russian war machine is faltering. The sudden absence of Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons? Almost certainly the result of Chinese displeasure. So much for the limitless friendship. The mutiny of the Wagner group, the sacking of Russian generals? Unmistakable signs of an internal power struggle. Sporadic Ukrainian attacks on Russian airfields and other deep targets? Disturbing proof of Russian military limitations.
Russia, in other words, is anything but a powerful ally. Two senior US officials, including the head of USAID, Samantha Power, have already landed in Armenia. The point of their mission, apart from assessing the immediate needs of 120,000 ethnic Armenians on the move, was to demonstrate Russia’s limitations as an ally. Under the Russian-led ceasefire the ethnic Armenians of Karabakh agreed after only a day of furious fighting to lay down arms and enter “reintegration” talks with Baku. Azerbaijan says it will provide constitutional protection to ethnic Armenians there who accept its control. But the Armenian government is unlikely to accept those terms.
Mr Putin’s attention has wandered and his lack of loyalty to neighbours and traditional allies like Armenia will be rewarded in kind. The outcome, say Armenian analysts, could be a breakdown in talks and a new broader war, dragging in Turkey, Iran and perhaps even Russia by the end of next month . Wars that kick off in the Caucasus rarely stay in the mountains for long.
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There is zero chance Russia will ever support Armenia - a Parliamentary Democracy, hosting NATO and about to ratify the jurisdiction of the ICC.
Moscow threatened them with reprisals back in March. Here it is.
Moscow threatened them with reprisals back in March. Here it is.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/1...weeks-00121500
Blinken warned lawmakers Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned a small group of lawmakers last week that his department is tracking the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia, according to two people familiar with the conversation.
The call indicates the depth of concern in the administration about Azerbaijan’s operations against a breakaway region in the west of the country and the possibility of the conflict spreading…..
Nagorno-Karabakh is not the only territorial dispute between the two Caucasus countries. Baku has proposed a route to the Nakhichevan exclave that would cut through Armenia’s southern Syunik region, known in Azerbaijani as Zangezur, and enable road traffic to bypass Iran.
Aliyev has said “we will be implementing the Zangezur Corridor, whether Armenia wants it or not.”….
Blinken warned lawmakers Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned a small group of lawmakers last week that his department is tracking the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia, according to two people familiar with the conversation.
The call indicates the depth of concern in the administration about Azerbaijan’s operations against a breakaway region in the west of the country and the possibility of the conflict spreading…..
Nagorno-Karabakh is not the only territorial dispute between the two Caucasus countries. Baku has proposed a route to the Nakhichevan exclave that would cut through Armenia’s southern Syunik region, known in Azerbaijani as Zangezur, and enable road traffic to bypass Iran.
Aliyev has said “we will be implementing the Zangezur Corridor, whether Armenia wants it or not.”….