It's official - Germany buys F-35 for Nuclear Role

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by melmothtw

What has Germany's F-35 buy got to do with close air support over Ukraine?

Sandiego89 has helpfully listed the range of equipment included. That sure makes it look like the plan is to use the F-35 as a multi mission combat aircraft, not solely a nuclear strike weapon.
For those other roles, the Ukraine experience certainly seems relevant to me.

[henra]

Originally Posted by etudiant

For those other roles, the Ukraine experience certainly seems relevant to me.

Indeed! The massive difficulties of the Russian Armed Forces are showing that (besides the importance of logistics) without proper Air Power it is extremely difficult to win against even a nominally much weeker opponent.

[Less Hair]

They will need deep penetration, EW and AA suppression capabilities for the strike role. The Ukraine conflict is not relevant at all.

[Biggus]

According to open source material, the current F-35 production rate is 13 aircraft per month (or is that just for the US armed forces?), and LM has no plans to increase that any further. Production targets also weren't met during the coronavirus period as supplies from sub contractors were delayed, so they're behind schedule and already playing catch up.

There are still some 2,000 F-35s planned for delivery to the USAF, USN and USMC, which presumably they will want before the aircraft are obsolete. So no doubt the bulk of production goes to the US. There are currently 8 export countries, including the UK, whose orders are only partially complete. There are at least another 5 export countries, including Poland, who haven't yet received any aircraft, but presumably will be in front of the new order from Germany in terms of priority for new aircraft delivery.

I don't know who makes the decisions about the priority of orders, presumably LM for exports, or whether DoD is ever consulted, maybe asked to give up some of its slots on the production line for export customers (DoD might be willing to do so some years to save money). If the DoD, and therefore the US Government does get involved in some way I don't know what their attitude will be. Personally I would prioritize Poland over Germany. I don't know what the Democrats attitude to Germany is, but the relationship between the US and Germany under the Republicans/Trump was certainly strained in terms of defence spending, 2% NATO target, etc.

Anyway, given all that background, it seems to me that it could be many years (5-10?) before Germany receives a meaningful number of aircraft.

Does anyone out there have any knowledge/thoughts on the matter they're willing/able to share - as opposed to my speculation?

[Less Hair]

Relations have improved again and german deliveries are planned from Italy AFAIK.

[henra]

Originally Posted by Biggus

I don't know what the Democrats attitude to Germany is, but the relationship between the US and Germany under the Republicans/Trump was certainly strained in terms of defence spending, 2% NATO target, etc.

Governments both sides of the pond have changed.
2% target is now official in Germany,

Anyway, given all that background, it seems to me that it could be many years (5-10?) before Germany receives a meaningful number of aircraft.
Does anyone out there have any knowledge/thoughts on the matter they're willing/able to share - as opposed to my speculation?

Something around 2027 for the first deliveries (to training units in the US) has been mentioned. Will be Block IV so not before 2026 anyway.