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Iran claims RQ-4 shootdown

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Iran claims RQ-4 shootdown

Old 22nd Jun 2019, 09:28
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
Plink a hole in a runway intersection at one of their airbases? V low chance of collateral casualties, unless a planeload of orphans and puppies just so happen to be taking off.... On which topic, were there really no such options?
I think there is plenty of mileage in total restraint. The US can afford to lose more drones without retaliating provided it can produce firm evidence that they were in international airspace. There are downsides for the Iranians to keep shooting at them, too.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 09:52
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Easy Street View Post


Which goes to show what a dilemma the West faces in its policy options. Externally-enforced regime change is (rightly, IMHO) considered toxic by most after the debacles since 2003. But enabling the regime to sit comfortably, as it would do under the JCPOA, is no help to the good people of Iran over the long run. Change has got to come from within to stick, but thatís not to say an external catalyst would be illegitimate. Look at the revolutions that made the West what it is; many were triggered by interference from afar. Trumpís sanctions may be controversial but if they helped to precipitate a counter-revolution then how harshly would history judge them? I donít pretend to know for a moment what the answer is and am bemused by the absolutely certainty of some that whatever Trump does is wrong wrong wrong.
So when does the West change its imperialism of deciding what is right / wrong and what population can experience genocide this decade ?

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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 10:50
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
So when does the West change its imperialism of deciding what is right / wrong and what population can experience genocide this decade ?
I donít disagree with your general thrust and take the view that people need to fight their own battles, but you shouldnít make the West out to be uniquely guilty of imposing its values: the Uighurs of Xinjiang and the Christians of the Middle East are both on the path to extinction right now, itís just that the long game played by the protagonists (including Western Ďalliesí in the latter case) attracts much less attention than the short games which the West repeatedly gets itself tied up in. You can point to sovereignty and the states system all you like but itís alternately invoked and ignored by pretty much everyone in the bear pit of international politics.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 11:08
  #84 (permalink)  
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They’re not sitting comfortably, that’s exactly why they are trying to provoke a reaction - because economic sanctions are killing them.

The USA has, for once, made the sensible decision to use the main weapons they have - the control of the default currency and banking. Which is why Trump was persuaded to back away from a military response - and look implement additional sanctions.

The loss of the Triton cost the USA about $100M in assets, the additional sanctions will cost Iran a lot lot more......

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/21/polit...ion/index.html
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 11:14
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Easy street makes the key point: it is all about the long game. Take a look at the population growth projections by nationality, race , and religion, and ask yourself who is going to win the long game. It shouldn't take you long to work it out, and in some cases, the game might not be as long as you imagine.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 11:18
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Theyíre not sitting comfortably, thatís exactly why they are trying to provoke a reaction - because economic sanctions are killing them.

The USA has, for once, made the sensible decision to use the main weapons they have...
That was my point about the JCPOA and the potentially misplaced criticism of Trump. He is an economic realist by background and seems (along with his generals) to have a better grip of the realities of international politics than Obama, Hillary or the Pompeo/Bolton gang.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 12:09
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I wonder if GPS jamming or spoofing played a part in this story?
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 16:22
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dogsridewith View Post
Whether vacillation or strategy, it might have been useful to have a lot more than 150 Iranians spending several minutes thinking they were about to get a serving of Shock & Awe. (For one thing, all the other surveillance assets got to see where and how everyone reacted.)
Oops.

The first morning TV news I got on this mission hold included "...planes were in the air." But, in the commander's words, we were "locked and loaded," with press now saying the hold order came 10 minutes before the planned launch. So I guess air-raid sirens weren't going off in Iran.

Would Iran have noticed any of the mission prep?
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 21:58
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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Notice "Prep"....probably not.....but they would definitely notice the "execution" part of the OP.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 22:24
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
the control of the default currency and banking
Nope. The petro-dollar is past its peak. For example, Saudi Arabia is accepting yuan in payment for oil supplies to China. Russia and China have set up new financial mechanisms for mutual trade, circumventing the USD and associated mechannisms. Times are changing.
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