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Iran claims RQ-4 shootdown

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Iran claims RQ-4 shootdown

Old 21st Jun 2019, 08:29
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US-Iran: Trump 'pulls back after approving military strikes'

From the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48714414

Perhaps the US has realised that their drone's routing was...in error? That's a difficult, disputed part of the world and something like a missed waypoint could easily cause an invisible territorial line to be crossed if the drone cuts a corner, probably unintended.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 10:09
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Originally Posted by BEagle View Post
From the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48714414

Perhaps the US has realised that their drone's routing was...in error? That's a difficult, disputed part of the world and something like a missed waypoint could easily cause an invisible territorial line to be crossed if the drone cuts a corner, probably unintended.
Routing in error / Rogue General..... cooler heads on both sides may be saying lets hold back a bit.

Iran will not back down but a behind the scenes "Diplomatic" conversation where both insist they were in the right may cool it down a bit. Sadly Bolton / Pompeo will still be pushing for war.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 12:38
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Plenty of good questions for both sides and all parties involved in this situation.

The need for up to date effective intelligence gathering is a must these days especially when one has the capability to perform those kinds of missions.

During the Cold War, the RAF and USAF conducted covert (or even some in your face) overflights of Soviet and Chinese territory so the concept is not new.

At least we are not putting aircrew at risk as we did in those days.

The 64 Dollar question is who shall blink first....the Iranians or the Western Powers and their Allies.


Just posted in the news....Trump called off the strikes ten minutes before they were to take place as he determined the likelihood of 150 deaths to not be a proper outcome for the shooting down of an un-manned drone.

That to me is a good call....and certainly puts the Iranians on notice the US Military is capable of measured response to their provocations.

It also puts them on notice that Trump seeks a peaceful outcome to all of this.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-...ast-minute-wsj

Last edited by SASless; 21st Jun 2019 at 14:27.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 17:27
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Usually the topic of potential casualties comes before the strike decision. Indeed, it is usually the first point before choosing a response option. Somehow the US got very close to a retaliatory strike before establishing the basics. Unbelievably, POTUS is now providing the excuses for Iran by declaring that the original shoot-down was not orchestrated at Iranian government level, suggesting it was someone much lower down. He also seemed to suggest that shooting down an unmanned aircraft in international airspace was more excusable due to the absence of people.

So does the US feel the need to respond to a SAM attack on an expensive aircraft or not?
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 17:39
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certainly puts the Iranians on notice the US Military is capable of measured response to their provocations
Err do you think the Iranians didn't know that already? Were they really under impression all the hardware deployed was just for show??

​​​
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 18:03
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if the attack had been done....ya'll would be howling that Trump was starting WWIII.....but do carry on!
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 18:20
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Actually, for once I am in agreement with SAS. Much as I completely disagree with most of what Trump does or says, for once he has acted Presidential.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 18:40
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Which action was presidential - reneging on the nuclear deal, or stoking the rhetoric and sanctions against Iran to the bewilderment of allies, or the authorising of action against 3 targets without knowing the probable casualty figures, or changing his mind after deploying his forces or playing down the matter afterwards as the drone was unmanned?

I've no idea if POTUS is going to act or not, even now. Perhaps this will be another 'only small missile' event like with North Korea.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 18:42
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Originally Posted by Toadstool View Post
Actually, for once I am in agreement with SAS. Much as I completely disagree with most of what Trump does or says, for once he has acted Presidential.
Yup. Hurts me to say it but it's almost as if he has some sense of statesmanship after all.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 18:44
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Originally Posted by Toadstool View Post
Actually, for once I am in agreement with SAS. Much as I completely disagree with most of what Trump does or says, for once he has acted Presidential.
Trump is not war mongerer, despite his critics. Stopping something and pointing out that 150 deaths is unacceptable for losing an unarmed surveillance drone sends a signal, just like the signal that Iran has sent that it could have shot down a P8 but didn't.

Something is happening in background and Oman is in the thick of it. They have become VG friends with couple of countrys in last couple of years, exited GCC etc.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 19:07
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Not sure the Iranians will view it this way, more a lack of resolve. You've got to walk the walk in that neck of the woods. Reminds me of the furore about Obama's red line in Syria, and we know how that turned out
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 19:31
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Whether vacillation or strategy, it might have been useful to have a lot more than 150 Iranians spending several minutes thinking they were about to get a serving of Shock & Awe. (For one thing, all the other surveillance assets got to see where and how everyone reacted.)

There is a theory that there is some military advantage derived w/ a crazy leader...something like that the enemy can't plan based on strategically logical moves by his opponent. (I might have read this in John Keegan's "A History of Warfare.")
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 20:02
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Originally Posted by Just This Once... View Post
Usually the topic of potential casualties comes before the strike decision. Indeed, it is usually the first point before choosing a response option. Somehow the US got very close to a retaliatory strike before establishing the basics. Unbelievably, POTUS is now providing the excuses for Iran by declaring that the original shoot-down was not orchestrated at Iranian government level, suggesting it was someone much lower down. He also seemed to suggest that shooting down an unmanned aircraft in international airspace was more excusable due to the absence of people.

So does the US feel the need to respond to a SAM attack on an expensive aircraft or not?
Or was the flight deliberate and there was so many EW aircraft around that the Iranians have just opened up their electronic order of battle.

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Old 21st Jun 2019, 21:00
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My Iranian neighbours here in my neighbourhood have been talking for years about the power struggle between the vast majority of moderate Iranians and the “old guard “ represented by the Revolutionary Guard. What a pity such a historic and cultured people are being held hostage by a small minority of radicals.
The Iranians aren’t doing so well either.
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 23:58
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Originally Posted by hunterboy View Post
My Iranian neighbours here in my neighbourhood have been talking for years about the power struggle between the vast majority of moderate Iranians and the ďold guard ď represented by the Revolutionary Guard. What a pity such a historic and cultured people are being held hostage by a small minority of radicals.
The Iranians arenít doing so well either.
Year ago at WC in Russia I met both Iranian and Saudi fans, easy to see who were fun to party with with few wearing head scarves, saw no Saudi women and the males were not fun.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 04:06
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An interesting dilemma - just what response is proportionate to shooting down a high-value UAV?
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 05:39
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100 speedboats?
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 05:45
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All seem to miss the obvious. In a battle to control Trumpetís strings Putin won out over MBS just like in Syria.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 09:13
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Originally Posted by hunterboy View Post
My Iranian neighbours here in my neighbourhood have been talking for years about the power struggle between the vast majority of moderate Iranians and the ďold guard ď represented by the Revolutionary Guard. What a pity such a historic and cultured people are being held hostage by a small minority of radicals.
The Iranians arenít doing so well either.
Which goes to show what a dilemma the West faces in its policy options. Externally-enforced regime change is (rightly, IMHO) considered toxic by most after the debacles since 2003. But enabling the regime to sit comfortably, as it would do under the JCPOA, is no help to the good people of Iran over the long run. Change has got to come from within to stick, but thatís not to say an external catalyst would be illegitimate. Look at the revolutions that made the West what it is; many were triggered by interference from afar. Trumpís sanctions may be controversial but if they helped to precipitate a counter-revolution then how harshly would history judge them? I donít pretend to know for a moment what the answer is and am bemused by the absolutely certainty of some that whatever Trump does is wrong wrong wrong.
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Old 22nd Jun 2019, 09:17
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Originally Posted by tartare View Post
An interesting dilemma - just what response is proportionate to shooting down a high-value UAV?
Plink a hole in a runway intersection at one of their airbases? V low chance of collateral casualties, unless a planeload of orphans and puppies just so happen to be taking off.... On which topic, were there really no such options?
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