Forces braced for more cuts .....
Gentleman Aviator
she will quit and we are all back to the ballot box...
Whoever is leader of the party in government is PM - I don't think her successor would want to do as she did. Moreover (and paradoxically) the PM (whoever he or she might be) would struggle to get the required (2/3??) majority in the House, because of her own side. Lots of low Tory majorities now - turkeys and Christmas?
My view is that she will either go quickly - in a couple weeks - or she'll brazen it out until New Year once Brexit negotiations are well in hand.
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It really is a shambles - and TBH it's a Tory shambles
They didn't have to offer BREXIT referendum, they didn't need to call this election
To my mind the big question is who will replace May (as she's a dead duck) - it's not exactly a brilliant list of people to choose from - and none of them has any noted liking for the military
What we need is someone who can start a valid, meaningfull debate on how to fund the NHS and care in a sensible AND ACCEPTABLE manner, who will stop changing Education policy every 10 minutes, who can extract more tax out of the multi-national companies and can minimise the long term economic damage of a BREXIT whilst bolstering the armed forces
Regretfully , apart form myself of course , I can't think of a single suitable canditate............
Maybe time for a Grand Coalition - it works elsewhere
They didn't have to offer BREXIT referendum, they didn't need to call this election
To my mind the big question is who will replace May (as she's a dead duck) - it's not exactly a brilliant list of people to choose from - and none of them has any noted liking for the military
What we need is someone who can start a valid, meaningfull debate on how to fund the NHS and care in a sensible AND ACCEPTABLE manner, who will stop changing Education policy every 10 minutes, who can extract more tax out of the multi-national companies and can minimise the long term economic damage of a BREXIT whilst bolstering the armed forces
Regretfully , apart form myself of course , I can't think of a single suitable canditate............
Maybe time for a Grand Coalition - it works elsewhere
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Whoever is leader of the party in government is PM - I don't think her successor would want to do as she did.
That clearly won't work so the only alternative will be another election.
I concur, once the Queen's Speech is voted through, the PM can be changed at the whim of the party without election, of course.
Happy to be flamed, but a reference would be nice if that is the case, coz I did research that a little bit and that's how I read it.
anything REMOTELY resembling tricky domestic legislation will be unceremoniously dropped kicked down the road and into the long grass for future governments to deal with. And that includes non-legislative actions (like Budgets, which will be as bland as ****)
Since I'm getting good results at this old political speculation game...here's how it gonna go...
Either,
TM will do whatever it takes to get the Queen's Speech voted thru, then the next 18 months will just be brexit negotiations...anything REMOTELY resembling tricky domestic legislation will be unceremoniously dropped kicked down the road and into the long grass for future governments to deal with. And that includes non-legislative actions (like Budgets, which will be as bland as ****)
Or,
The tory back benchers will shaft her in the next fortnight, she will quit and we are all back to the ballot box...with pretty much the same outcome a forgone conclusion.
Either way, since this is about the forces and more cuts, you can expect any difficult spending decisions to kicked down the road as well. Delays and procrastination will be de rigeur.
You heard it here first
Either,
TM will do whatever it takes to get the Queen's Speech voted thru, then the next 18 months will just be brexit negotiations...anything REMOTELY resembling tricky domestic legislation will be unceremoniously dropped kicked down the road and into the long grass for future governments to deal with. And that includes non-legislative actions (like Budgets, which will be as bland as ****)
Or,
The tory back benchers will shaft her in the next fortnight, she will quit and we are all back to the ballot box...with pretty much the same outcome a forgone conclusion.
Either way, since this is about the forces and more cuts, you can expect any difficult spending decisions to kicked down the road as well. Delays and procrastination will be de rigeur.
You heard it here first
But we should have seen this coming in hindsight. She was quiet during the BREXIT campaign. Said precious little in the last leadership election, instead stepping over the bodies at the last minute as the sole survivor. She has said nothing substantive on BREXIT itself, and despite wanting to repatriate power to Parliament then called an election when questioned by said body. And to cap it all, she said nothing throughout the awful campaign. Far from being a safe pair of hands, taken together this all shows her up to be a political opportunist who got caught out.
What is needed now is an intelligent, consensual approach, taking a long term strategic view to avoid us being completely isolated whilst somehow holding a dis-united kingdom together. Bugger.
Last edited by Melchett01; 10th Jun 2017 at 17:55.
OAP,
I want you to know that even if I now say option A, nothing has changed. It's a strong choice and I'm certain it's the right one.
This isn't a u-turn you understand. I'm still right!
That'll teach me to pay more attention whilst typing!
Melchy
I want you to know that even if I now say option A, nothing has changed. It's a strong choice and I'm certain it's the right one.
This isn't a u-turn you understand. I'm still right!
That'll teach me to pay more attention whilst typing!
Melchy
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TOFO
Legally the position of PM is wholly in the gift of the Queen - she selects some idiot to form a Govt. & run the country.
Practically and customarily this person should "be able to command a majority in the HoC" - also it has become customary for this person to be an MP. That majority doesn't have to be on every issue but they must be able to withstand a Vote of Confidence.
The PM doesn't have to be (tho normally is) the Leader of a Party - IIRC in the past the Tories had a Party Leader who was in the Lords and a PM who was in the Commons.
How they are chosen is legally & practically irrelevant - at the moment every party has a different way of doing it. The Tories could vote to dump Mrs May but as long as she can get the votes in the HoC she can remain PM.
The Queens Speech has no legal force or impact - it is simply the day the Govt lay out their plans for the forthcoming session,. A PM could be ditched by a no confidence vote before it's even given .
It's very British - lots of custom & practise and bugger-all codification.
The fly in the ointment could be the Fixed-term Parliaments Act
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 set the date of the next election to 7 May 2020 and then every five years subsequent to that. The Queen no longer has the power to dissolve Parliament. This is now scheduled by the Act to automatically happen 25 days before the election date. Parliament has the power to call for an early general election, on one of two conditions:
Legally the position of PM is wholly in the gift of the Queen - she selects some idiot to form a Govt. & run the country.
Practically and customarily this person should "be able to command a majority in the HoC" - also it has become customary for this person to be an MP. That majority doesn't have to be on every issue but they must be able to withstand a Vote of Confidence.
The PM doesn't have to be (tho normally is) the Leader of a Party - IIRC in the past the Tories had a Party Leader who was in the Lords and a PM who was in the Commons.
How they are chosen is legally & practically irrelevant - at the moment every party has a different way of doing it. The Tories could vote to dump Mrs May but as long as she can get the votes in the HoC she can remain PM.
The Queens Speech has no legal force or impact - it is simply the day the Govt lay out their plans for the forthcoming session,. A PM could be ditched by a no confidence vote before it's even given .
It's very British - lots of custom & practise and bugger-all codification.
The fly in the ointment could be the Fixed-term Parliaments Act
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 set the date of the next election to 7 May 2020 and then every five years subsequent to that. The Queen no longer has the power to dissolve Parliament. This is now scheduled by the Act to automatically happen 25 days before the election date. Parliament has the power to call for an early general election, on one of two conditions:
- Via a motion of no-confidence in the current government. It would be unusual for a Prime Minister to call an election in this manner, as it would effectively end their career.
- Via a vote that carries the agreement of two thirds of MPs. Under current Parliamentary conditions this would be hard but not impossible for the Prime Minister to manage. It would also require the assent of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.
HH
You're right, the Tories would be mad to pull what is effectively a safety blanket, even though repealing it was one of their manifesto commitments. (Page 45 to save the hassle of checking)
Guess it falls into the category of 'events dear boy, events'.
The Act is still in place and now unlikely to be repealed
Guess it falls into the category of 'events dear boy, events'.
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H H,
In reply to your post #143 ref new Conservative leader (Quote: it's not exactly a brilliant list of people to choose from - and none of them has any noted liking for the military) I would like to offer our local MP, Sir William (Bill) Cash. He has served as Solicitor-General in the past who, from a personal interest, fought long and hard for Suez Canal Zone veterans to be granted a medal to mark their sacrifice. This was only granted 50 years later.
In reply to your post #143 ref new Conservative leader (Quote: it's not exactly a brilliant list of people to choose from - and none of them has any noted liking for the military) I would like to offer our local MP, Sir William (Bill) Cash. He has served as Solicitor-General in the past who, from a personal interest, fought long and hard for Suez Canal Zone veterans to be granted a medal to mark their sacrifice. This was only granted 50 years later.
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Have some people been watching a different election? In the one I watched Labour racked up its third straight decisive electoral defeat. Somehow the exceptionally low expectations seem to be masking that basic fact. The PM in No10 has a majority not much different from last week.
Have some people been watching a different election? In the one I watched Labour racked up its third straight decisive electoral defeat. Somehow the exceptionally low expectations seem to be masking that basic fact. The PM in No10 has a majority not much different from last week.
Given that the PM staked her personal name and reputation as the single factor able to deliver a credible govt, other than a bad day at the office I'm not sure what you would call it.
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yeah I think we are on the same page and in fact dear old JC has pretty much said what I said. If he can a majority to vote down the Queen's Speech, he may well get a crack at it.
Which I think would be an even bigger farce (and another vote down of the Queens Speech) which would be another election, which as we now live in an utterly divided and polarised nation, would probably end up right back at square one.
Not great is it
Which I think would be an even bigger farce (and another vote down of the Queens Speech) which would be another election, which as we now live in an utterly divided and polarised nation, would probably end up right back at square one.
Not great is it
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Since when were the keys to No 10 handed out on basis of "Biggest increase... "? Even having every single other party on side (likely?) doesn't give Corbyn a majority. DUP probably more loyalty to Tories than some of Corbyns own MP's have to him: as if they want an IRA apologist in No10!
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Oh, we have the Billy Boys, the people who's actions in the 60s did everything to bring about the resurrection of the IRA in its PIRA form. Just as awful as Corbyn seems to most on here. Max Hastings "Going to the Wars" is a good reference work to back up my statement. Max isn't red by any form of imagination.
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What total rubbish. Most of them weren't even born in the 60's. They want no hard border, increased personal tax allowance, scrap airline passenger duty. Gets my vote. Much made on their abortion policy yet it's little different to other parties there North and South of border.
The alternative is someone who invited IRA terrorists to Westminster at the height of their bombing campaign and a Marxist chancellor. Perhaps you'd run me through the order of battle of any country with Marxist economic policies?
The alternative is someone who invited IRA terrorists to Westminster at the height of their bombing campaign and a Marxist chancellor. Perhaps you'd run me through the order of battle of any country with Marxist economic policies?
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Bill Cash? the man who has stabbed every Tory Leader int he back for over 20 years? I don't think so..
Of course one amusing aspect is that the party that banged on for years about the horror of Scots Nats voting on English issues is now depoendent on abunch of Irish Neanderthals to vote on English issues to save their skin.....
Next it'll be Boris as PM...........
Anyway
Of course one amusing aspect is that the party that banged on for years about the horror of Scots Nats voting on English issues is now depoendent on abunch of Irish Neanderthals to vote on English issues to save their skin.....
Next it'll be Boris as PM...........
Anyway
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Clearly you misunderstand the issue of the "West Lothian question"HH. It was never principally about Scot Nats. The problem was policy affecting only England being driven through on the strength of (mainly Labour) Scottish MP's who stood unaffected by those policies. Approving a Queens speech and preventing a power-grab by a party which lost the election most emphatically DOES affect Northern Ireland
The one silver lining in all this is the Sturgeon/Salmond grand ego-trip for Scottish independence is now in shreds for the foreseeable. This may be far more significant long term than the present party-political jostling.
The one silver lining in all this is the Sturgeon/Salmond grand ego-trip for Scottish independence is now in shreds for the foreseeable. This may be far more significant long term than the present party-political jostling.
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Clearly you misunderstand the issue of the "West Lothian question"HH. It was never principally about Scot Nats. The problem was policy affecting only England being driven through on the strength of (mainly Labour) Scottish MP's who stood unaffected by those policies. Approving a Queens speech and preventing a power-grab by a party which lost the election most emphatically DOES affect Northern Ireland
The one silver lining in all this is the Sturgeon/Salmond grand ego-trip for Scottish independence is now in shreds for the foreseeable. This may be far more significant long term than the present party-political jostling.
The one silver lining in all this is the Sturgeon/Salmond grand ego-trip for Scottish independence is now in shreds for the foreseeable. This may be far more significant long term than the present party-political jostling.
Good to see the end of Salmon - a very unpleasant individual IMHO
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That well known bastion of Liberal Toryism (NOT) the Conservative Home website reckons we face a period of do-nothing Govt.
So no decisions, hand-outs to the DUP, the young etc etc and cuts........... I can't see the Tories abandoning Trident tho' -it's their only USP now against Corbyn
So no decisions, hand-outs to the DUP, the young etc etc and cuts........... I can't see the Tories abandoning Trident tho' -it's their only USP now against Corbyn