Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Forces braced for more cuts .....

Wikiposts
Search
Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Forces braced for more cuts .....

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 10th Jun 2017, 14:50
  #141 (permalink)  

Gentleman Aviator
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Teetering Towers - somewhere in the Shires
Age: 74
Posts: 3,698
Received 51 Likes on 24 Posts
she will quit and we are all back to the ballot box...
No ballot necessary TOFO me old.

Whoever is leader of the party in government is PM - I don't think her successor would want to do as she did. Moreover (and paradoxically) the PM (whoever he or she might be) would struggle to get the required (2/3??) majority in the House, because of her own side. Lots of low Tory majorities now - turkeys and Christmas?

My view is that she will either go quickly - in a couple weeks - or she'll brazen it out until New Year once Brexit negotiations are well in hand.
teeteringhead is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 16:07
  #142 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: London
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
It really is a shambles - and TBH it's a Tory shambles

They didn't have to offer BREXIT referendum, they didn't need to call this election

To my mind the big question is who will replace May (as she's a dead duck) - it's not exactly a brilliant list of people to choose from - and none of them has any noted liking for the military

What we need is someone who can start a valid, meaningfull debate on how to fund the NHS and care in a sensible AND ACCEPTABLE manner, who will stop changing Education policy every 10 minutes, who can extract more tax out of the multi-national companies and can minimise the long term economic damage of a BREXIT whilst bolstering the armed forces

Regretfully , apart form myself of course , I can't think of a single suitable canditate............

Maybe time for a Grand Coalition - it works elsewhere
Heathrow Harry is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 17:05
  #143 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 1,515
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Whoever is leader of the party in government is PM - I don't think her successor would want to do as she did.
No you misunderstood me. I mean if she pushed out by the tories in the next few days. If that were the case (and I freely confess I'm not a constitutional expert) as I understand it, the tories would have to have a leadership contest and in the ensuing gap, JC can hot foot it to the Queen and ask for permission to form a Government.

That clearly won't work so the only alternative will be another election.

I concur, once the Queen's Speech is voted through, the PM can be changed at the whim of the party without election, of course.

Happy to be flamed, but a reference would be nice if that is the case, coz I did research that a little bit and that's how I read it.
The Old Fat One is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 17:08
  #144 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northumberland
Posts: 8,580
Received 94 Likes on 64 Posts
anything REMOTELY resembling tricky domestic legislation will be unceremoniously dropped kicked down the road and into the long grass for future governments to deal with. And that includes non-legislative actions (like Budgets, which will be as bland as ****)
Which is what should have been done as soon as the referendum result was in - the amount of work required for Brexit and the aftermath, baffles me that anybody thinks that we have the capacity to do anything else.
SWBKCB is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 17:27
  #145 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Darling - where are we?
Posts: 2,580
Received 7 Likes on 5 Posts
Originally Posted by The Old Fat One
Since I'm getting good results at this old political speculation game...here's how it gonna go...

Either,

TM will do whatever it takes to get the Queen's Speech voted thru, then the next 18 months will just be brexit negotiations...anything REMOTELY resembling tricky domestic legislation will be unceremoniously dropped kicked down the road and into the long grass for future governments to deal with. And that includes non-legislative actions (like Budgets, which will be as bland as ****)

Or,

The tory back benchers will shaft her in the next fortnight, she will quit and we are all back to the ballot box...with pretty much the same outcome a forgone conclusion.

Either way, since this is about the forces and more cuts, you can expect any difficult spending decisions to kicked down the road as well. Delays and procrastination will be de rigeur.

You heard it here first
Option b is my vote. Maybe a year tops before it all unravels and the constant attacks in Parliament and the media plus lack of substantive progress on BREXIT and the constant threat of a vote of no confidence combine to seal her fate. Given she is now toxic and be shown up as second rate, the Party won't be in a rush to defend her. It's a question of finding a replacement.

But we should have seen this coming in hindsight. She was quiet during the BREXIT campaign. Said precious little in the last leadership election, instead stepping over the bodies at the last minute as the sole survivor. She has said nothing substantive on BREXIT itself, and despite wanting to repatriate power to Parliament then called an election when questioned by said body. And to cap it all, she said nothing throughout the awful campaign. Far from being a safe pair of hands, taken together this all shows her up to be a political opportunist who got caught out.

What is needed now is an intelligent, consensual approach, taking a long term strategic view to avoid us being completely isolated whilst somehow holding a dis-united kingdom together. Bugger.

Last edited by Melchett01; 10th Jun 2017 at 17:55.
Melchett01 is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 18:15
  #146 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 1,785
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Melchy,
I guess you mean "option A"?

OAP
Onceapilot is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 18:33
  #147 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Darling - where are we?
Posts: 2,580
Received 7 Likes on 5 Posts
Originally Posted by Onceapilot
Melchy,
I guess you mean "option A"?

OAP
OAP,

I want you to know that even if I now say option A, nothing has changed. It's a strong choice and I'm certain it's the right one.

This isn't a u-turn you understand. I'm still right!

That'll teach me to pay more attention whilst typing!

Melchy
Melchett01 is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 18:35
  #148 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: London
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
TOFO

Legally the position of PM is wholly in the gift of the Queen - she selects some idiot to form a Govt. & run the country.

Practically and customarily this person should "be able to command a majority in the HoC" - also it has become customary for this person to be an MP. That majority doesn't have to be on every issue but they must be able to withstand a Vote of Confidence.

The PM doesn't have to be (tho normally is) the Leader of a Party - IIRC in the past the Tories had a Party Leader who was in the Lords and a PM who was in the Commons.

How they are chosen is legally & practically irrelevant - at the moment every party has a different way of doing it. The Tories could vote to dump Mrs May but as long as she can get the votes in the HoC she can remain PM.

The Queens Speech has no legal force or impact - it is simply the day the Govt lay out their plans for the forthcoming session,. A PM could be ditched by a no confidence vote before it's even given .

It's very British - lots of custom & practise and bugger-all codification.

The fly in the ointment could be the Fixed-term Parliaments Act

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 set the date of the next election to 7 May 2020 and then every five years subsequent to that. The Queen no longer has the power to dissolve Parliament. This is now scheduled by the Act to automatically happen 25 days before the election date. Parliament has the power to call for an early general election, on one of two conditions:
  • Via a motion of no-confidence in the current government. It would be unusual for a Prime Minister to call an election in this manner, as it would effectively end their career.
  • Via a vote that carries the agreement of two thirds of MPs. Under current Parliamentary conditions this would be hard but not impossible for the Prime Minister to manage. It would also require the assent of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.
The Act is still in place and now unlikely to be repealed
Heathrow Harry is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 19:05
  #149 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Darling - where are we?
Posts: 2,580
Received 7 Likes on 5 Posts
HH

The Act is still in place and now unlikely to be repealed
You're right, the Tories would be mad to pull what is effectively a safety blanket, even though repealing it was one of their manifesto commitments. (Page 45 to save the hassle of checking)

Guess it falls into the category of 'events dear boy, events'.
Melchett01 is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 19:28
  #150 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Stoke-on-Trent
Age: 91
Posts: 366
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
H H,


In reply to your post #143 ref new Conservative leader (Quote: it's not exactly a brilliant list of people to choose from - and none of them has any noted liking for the military) I would like to offer our local MP, Sir William (Bill) Cash. He has served as Solicitor-General in the past who, from a personal interest, fought long and hard for Suez Canal Zone veterans to be granted a medal to mark their sacrifice. This was only granted 50 years later.
ValMORNA is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 20:10
  #151 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,958
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Have some people been watching a different election? In the one I watched Labour racked up its third straight decisive electoral defeat. Somehow the exceptionally low expectations seem to be masking that basic fact. The PM in No10 has a majority not much different from last week.
ShotOne is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 20:29
  #152 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Darling - where are we?
Posts: 2,580
Received 7 Likes on 5 Posts
Originally Posted by ShotOne
Have some people been watching a different election? In the one I watched Labour racked up its third straight decisive electoral defeat. Somehow the exceptionally low expectations seem to be masking that basic fact. The PM in No10 has a majority not much different from last week.
Erm, that's just it Shot. The PM WAS the leader of the Government and HAD a working majority last week that would have seen her through to 2020. Now she's the caretaker manager of the largest single party, no longer able to pass any legislation without outside assistance. In the process, Corbyn achieved the biggest increase in vote share of any Labour leader since 1945 and cemented his position against all the odds and predictions of electoral oblivion.

Given that the PM staked her personal name and reputation as the single factor able to deliver a credible govt, other than a bad day at the office I'm not sure what you would call it.
Melchett01 is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 21:01
  #153 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 1,515
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
yeah I think we are on the same page and in fact dear old JC has pretty much said what I said. If he can a majority to vote down the Queen's Speech, he may well get a crack at it.

Which I think would be an even bigger farce (and another vote down of the Queens Speech) which would be another election, which as we now live in an utterly divided and polarised nation, would probably end up right back at square one.

Not great is it
The Old Fat One is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 22:05
  #154 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,958
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Since when were the keys to No 10 handed out on basis of "Biggest increase... "? Even having every single other party on side (likely?) doesn't give Corbyn a majority. DUP probably more loyalty to Tories than some of Corbyns own MP's have to him: as if they want an IRA apologist in No10!
ShotOne is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2017, 22:46
  #155 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Away from home Rat
Posts: 1
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Oh, we have the Billy Boys, the people who's actions in the 60s did everything to bring about the resurrection of the IRA in its PIRA form. Just as awful as Corbyn seems to most on here. Max Hastings "Going to the Wars" is a good reference work to back up my statement. Max isn't red by any form of imagination.
Alber Ratman is offline  
Old 11th Jun 2017, 06:48
  #156 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,958
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
What total rubbish. Most of them weren't even born in the 60's. They want no hard border, increased personal tax allowance, scrap airline passenger duty. Gets my vote. Much made on their abortion policy yet it's little different to other parties there North and South of border.

The alternative is someone who invited IRA terrorists to Westminster at the height of their bombing campaign and a Marxist chancellor. Perhaps you'd run me through the order of battle of any country with Marxist economic policies?
ShotOne is offline  
Old 11th Jun 2017, 06:50
  #157 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: London
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Bill Cash? the man who has stabbed every Tory Leader int he back for over 20 years? I don't think so..

Of course one amusing aspect is that the party that banged on for years about the horror of Scots Nats voting on English issues is now depoendent on abunch of Irish Neanderthals to vote on English issues to save their skin.....

Next it'll be Boris as PM...........
Anyway
Heathrow Harry is offline  
Old 11th Jun 2017, 07:52
  #158 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,958
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Clearly you misunderstand the issue of the "West Lothian question"HH. It was never principally about Scot Nats. The problem was policy affecting only England being driven through on the strength of (mainly Labour) Scottish MP's who stood unaffected by those policies. Approving a Queens speech and preventing a power-grab by a party which lost the election most emphatically DOES affect Northern Ireland

The one silver lining in all this is the Sturgeon/Salmond grand ego-trip for Scottish independence is now in shreds for the foreseeable. This may be far more significant long term than the present party-political jostling.
ShotOne is offline  
Old 11th Jun 2017, 08:24
  #159 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: London
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by ShotOne
Clearly you misunderstand the issue of the "West Lothian question"HH. It was never principally about Scot Nats. The problem was policy affecting only England being driven through on the strength of (mainly Labour) Scottish MP's who stood unaffected by those policies. Approving a Queens speech and preventing a power-grab by a party which lost the election most emphatically DOES affect Northern Ireland

The one silver lining in all this is the Sturgeon/Salmond grand ego-trip for Scottish independence is now in shreds for the foreseeable. This may be far more significant long term than the present party-political jostling.
historically snuggling up to the Ulster Unionists has always ended in tears ....... it certainly doesn't improve the Tories image .

Good to see the end of Salmon - a very unpleasant individual IMHO
Heathrow Harry is offline  
Old 11th Jun 2017, 09:02
  #160 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: London
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
That well known bastion of Liberal Toryism (NOT) the Conservative Home website reckons we face a period of do-nothing Govt.

So no decisions, hand-outs to the DUP, the young etc etc and cuts........... I can't see the Tories abandoning Trident tho' -it's their only USP now against Corbyn
Heathrow Harry is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.