Iran

[harrogate]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

My post said they operated over Jordan, so maybe they were requested by Jordan to help them. So appears to be separate from Israel.

But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

[TURIN]

Originally Posted by harrogate

But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

Could it be considered good practice/exercise for RAF crew?

[Ninthace]

Pedant on. Shooting down live munitions in flight is what they are for. What were they practising? Pedant off

[Easy Street]

Originally Posted by harrogate

But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

Relevant (and probably secret) bits of information needed to answer this include the proportion of those 60 available for operations; the number of CAPs deemed necessary to guard* against Iranian weapons (noting that, as well as filling GBAD gaps, fighters might need to fill gaps in surveillance radar coverage due to low altitude and small size of targets); the number of tankers available to extend those CAPs; the distance of the CAPs from bases; and the number of fighters needing to be on ground alert to ensure enough AAMs can be brought up into the fight when it happens. Fighter fleets can very quickly be fully consumed with this kind of task, and with the exception of a few states, their size is usually determined more by financial considerations rather than by exhaustive threat analysis.

* Choosing not to enforce sovereignty of airspace would be a option, but not a politically attractive one for the Jordanians. It could be judged tantamount to complicity. In this regard, the effectiveness of any fighter screen matters less than its visibility, hence no doubt the UK statement that its aircraft were involved.

[TURIN]

Originally Posted by Ninthace

Pedant on. Shooting down live munitions in flight is what they are for. What were they practising? Pedant off

Experience on type then. 😁

[m0nkfish]

Originally Posted by harrogate

But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

From multiple drone launches detected to drones in a position to be intercepted is not much time, it is possible that many countries did not have the ability to provide adequate air cover that quickly, whereas one might presume Typhoons are now in a QRA posture in Cyprus so available to respond in very short notice.

All assumptions of course, and I guess we just have to have some confidence in the people calling the shots within our own respective governments; and hope that they are acting with less assumptions and with a view to restoring peace as quickly as possible.

[arf23]

Iran clearly doesn't yet have a nuclear bomb, but a very small dirty nuke cooked off inside Israel would certainly signal intent...

[Buster Hyman]

Originally Posted by harrogate

But Jordan has 60-odd F-16s. Would they really pull in the RAF to take out drones not even heading for their turf?

My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

[dead_pan]

Both sides declaring victory, minimal damage & casualties, no reason to escalate surely?

[Easy Street]

Originally Posted by Buster Hyman

My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

I don't think it's that fine a balance for them to strike in this instance. The principle of sovereignty would allow them to down any Iranian weapons over their territory while maintaining a neutral stance. That's not a remotely contested concept in diplomacy and they'd be on very firm ground. Granting the UK diplomatic clearance and policy permissions to act in that way over its territory and (presumably) agreeing to the UK declaring its role publicly is tantamount to the same thing in any case. Iran could choose to make things difficult for the Jordanians by highlighting that, or by declaring that they'd sought permission for the weapons to overfly and been refused; they don't seem to have done that yet. The politics of the region are a constraint on Iran as well, of course.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Buster Hyman

My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

The worry the RAF must have is of collateral damage and loss of life due to shot down drones or missiles crashing in Jordan, it’s a fine line between success and failure.

[Ninthace]

Given the consequences of not shooting them down and amount of desert below, I would think it was a no brainer.

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by Buster Hyman

My first thought would be the fine line Jordan walks in the ME. Directly involving themselves against Iran puts them firmly on one side, allowing the drones through their airspace unhindered puts them on the other. Allowing the RAF to do the work keeps them in the shady side of the politics in that part of the world.

The RAF were operating over Syria and Iraq, intercepting drones/cruise missiles in that area from the border.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by arf23

Iran clearly doesn't yet have a nuclear bomb, but a very small dirty nuke cooked off inside Israel would certainly signal intent...

Problem is, Israel does. You go nuke and the thought of a proportional response is out the window.

[redsetter]

Originally Posted by Mil-26Man

I would support a Western liberal ally against an autocratic theocracy that openly and routinely calls for our death, every time

Israel is often referred to in the media as an ally of the UK. My definition of an ally would include shared military and political goals and also mutual military and political support. We clearly support Israel - politically in the UN and also on occasion militarily (see latest action). What I'm missing is how Israel supports the UK ? I'm not being sarcastic - a genuine question.

[melmothtw]

Originally Posted by redsetter

Israel is often referred to in the media as an ally of the UK. My definition of an ally would include shared military and political goals and also mutual military and political support. We clearly support Israel - politically in the UN and also on occasion militarily (see latest action). What I'm missing is how Israel supports the UK ? I'm not being sarcastic - a genuine question.

Any flight tracker service will show you RAF aircraft on Op Shader transiting Israeli airspace on a regular basis, so there's one practical show of military support straight off the bat.

[melmothtw]

Anyhow, best to sign off before I'm told to take it to JB.

[Senior Pilot]

Originally Posted by melmothtw

Anyhow, best to sign off before I'm told to take it to JB.

There is a thread on Jet Blast for non Mil posts about Israel and Palestine, this Mil Thread is not the place thankyouverymuch 👍

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/17...HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Senior U.S. defense officials have now revealed that the Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers, USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) were the two ships of the USN that were in the eastern Mediterranean and launched Standard Missile-3s (SM-3s) to down between 4 and 6 Iranian IRBMs last night over Israel.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/levitt_matt/status/177...HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Jordanian Report picked up in Israel — King Abdullah’s daughter Salma involved in downing five Iranian UAVs.


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