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Old 7th Feb 2024, 20:57
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For Big Pistons Forever:
Saw a tidbit today that you may find to be of interest. Your take on the whole "strategy" thing seems to dovetail with this fellow's take.
If the current conflict in the Middle East is in large part about Iran’s influence, does Washington have the right strategy? Not so, said Stavridis: “We tend to look at Iran as this kind of annoying middle-sized power in a region that we would just as soon depart. That’s not how they see themselves. The Iranians absolutely see themselves as the inheritors of the Persian Empire. Job one in creating a strategy for Iran would be to recognize the Iranian self-view. Then you can begin to reverse-engineer and find the levers that could avoid conflict. We need a coherent plan with Iran that goes beyond the episodic interactions we tend to have with them.”
There's a whole interview that this comes from. I think he's called that right.
James Stavridis (ADM) is pretty sharp and he's operated at the higher levels of the Pol / Mil interface for some years.
(I met him back in the early 90's when he was XO of USS Antietam. Impressive then as well).

To what end do we keep blowing stuff up?
We are reasonably good at blowing stuff up.
He seems to think that a new sight line is needed for this political target.

For ORAC: they shot a missile into the air and where it fell they do not care.
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Old 7th Feb 2024, 21:13
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68235311

A senior commander of an Iran-backed militia has been killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.

The leader of Kataib Hezbollah and two of his guards were in a vehicle when it was targeted in the east of the Iraqi capital. All three of them died.

The Pentagon said the militia leader was responsible for directing attacks on American forces in the region.

The US has linked the militia to a drone attack in Jordan that killed three US troops last month. In the wake of that attack, Kataib Hezbollah said it was suspending attacks on American troops.

Wednesday night's drone raid happened in Baghdad's Mashtal neighbourhood, sparking several loud explosions. It was a precise strike on a moving vehicle in a busy street and the car was reduced to a fiery wreck.

When a BBC team reached the scene, crowds of protesters gathered chanting: "America is the biggest devil." There was a heavy police presence, and Swat teams from Iraq's interior ministry joined them.

The BBC team tried to get close to the burnt-out vehicle, but were driven back by onlookers who insisted that journalists were not welcome. "You are foreigners," one man shouted, adding "and foreigners are to blame for this".

There are reports of crowds heading to the heavily fortified US embassy to protest.

A US official confirmed earlier to CBS the individual targeted was a Kataib Hezbollah commander in charge of operations in Syria for the group….


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Old 7th Feb 2024, 23:00
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
For Big Pistons Forever:
Saw a tidbit today that you may find to be of interest. Your take on the whole "strategy" thing seems to dovetail with this fellow's take.

There's a whole interview that this comes from. I think he's called that right.
James Stavridis (ADM) is pretty sharp and he's operated at the higher levels of the Pol / Mil interface for some years.
(I met him back in the early 90's when he was XO of USS Antietam. Impressive then as well).

To what end do we keep blowing stuff up?
We are reasonably good at blowing stuff up.
He seems to think that a new sight line is needed for this political target.
.
I met Adm Stavridis when he was CENTCOM. I was very impressed with his strategic vision and a nuanced appreciation of both the capabilities and limitations of American military power embodied by his “Smart Power” approach to thorny world problems. If you have not already read it I highly recommend his book Partnership for Prosperity,

As for Op Prosperity Guardian, I see no achievable end state that does not leave the US diminished. The political will to use overwhelming force to decisively defeat the Houthi’s, including the use of ground forces, is not on the table and is probably ultimately self defeating. It is too late to just go home and deprive the Houthi’s of the American targets so the only choice is to continue to soak up missiles and opportunistically try to degrade Houthi tactical resources.

Sadly the knee jerk reaction to the Houthi threat seems to be the US Op Plan for the entire ME. What I don’t see, and I hope it is because I am missing it, is a unified US government approach to Iran’s actions which directly or indirectly affect the National Security interests of America.
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Old 8th Feb 2024, 12:15
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The latest attack near Baghdad on the Iran backed militia leader - Kataib Hezbollah faction - has drawn a reaction form the Iraqi government that is, to me, quite understandable.
The PM is very unhappy, and has spoken publicly about the Americans in Iraq (mostly dealing with ISIS, but also with Iran backed militias) may have worn out there welcome.

This may be mostly for public consumption, but the complaint voiced in the article ORAC posted that excerpt from strikes me as valid.
What are you foreigners doing blowing up a car in a Baghdad neighborhood?
The news snippet I saw last night indicated that the Iraqi government was not informed of the op.
(a) that may by for public consumption, but I suspect that it is true
(b) OPSEC is a thing, and for an op like that the fewer people "in" on it the better chances for success lest the target be spooked.
(Dealt with quite a few TST type scenarios like that a couple of decades back)

But how does it look, domestically, in Iraq, if the PM is being worked around by this ally who is ostensibly here at the Iraqi government's invitation?
Optics not good.

If the 2,000+ Americans in Iraq are invited to leave, what does that due in the Kurdish and border regions in the north central part of Iraq?
Nothing good for Iraq, plenty of opportunity for Iran.
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Old 10th Feb 2024, 06:53
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​​​​​​​Initial Reports that at least 3 High-Ranking Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were Killed earlier in an Israeli Airstrike on a Farm in the Damascus Countryside, which was being used as a Meeting Location by the Leadership of several Iranian-Backed Groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon.
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Old 10th Feb 2024, 14:36
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Feb. 9 Summary of USCENTCOM Self-Defense Strikes in Yemen

On Feb. 9, between the hours of 3 a.m. – 9:40 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted self-defense strikes against two mobile unmanned surface vessels (USV), four mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and one mobile land attack cruise missile (LACM) that were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.

CENTCOM identified these missiles and USVs in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region. These actions will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy and merchant vessels.
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Old 10th Feb 2024, 17:18
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Various reports that U.S. Defense sources have said that plans are in motion for the complete or partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Eastern Syria and Iraq.

The Iraqi parliament is currently voting on a law to require the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.

Timescale for the withdrawal is given as within the next 90 days, depending on the level of withdrawal.

I would imagine the partial part involves Kurdistan where they want them to remain.

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Old 11th Feb 2024, 11:45
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BEIRUT, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Air defence systems operated by U.S.-led coalition troops based in eastern Syria halted six drone attacks targeting their base at the Conoco oil field on Saturday, a security source said.

The source did not tell Reuters if there were casualties.

Coalition troops and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who together fight remnants of the Islamic State group, have faced increased attacks by Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq since Hamas’s attack against Israel on Oct. 7.
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Old 11th Feb 2024, 19:17
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Feb. 9 Summary of USCENTCOM Self-Defense Strikes in Yemen

On Feb. 9, between the hours of 3 a.m. – 9:40 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted self-defense strikes against two mobile unmanned surface vessels (USV), four mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and one mobile land attack cruise missile (LACM) that were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.

CENTCOM identified these missiles and USVs in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region. These actions will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy and merchant vessels.
Does this withdrawal impact the security of Israel?
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Old 11th Feb 2024, 22:25
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Significant One-Way “Suicide” Drone Attack reported against the U.S. Patrol Base within the Al-Omar Oil Field in Eastern Syria;

Casualties and Damage are currently Unknown.
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Old 12th Feb 2024, 19:24
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Various reports that U.S. Defense sources have said that plans are in motion for the complete or partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Eastern Syria and Iraq.
The Iraqi parliament is currently voting on a law to require the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.
Timescale for the withdrawal is given as within the next 90 days, depending on the level of withdrawal.
I would imagine the partial part involves Kurdistan where they want them to remain.
This came up about the day after the drone strike in Baghdad. Saw an article in FP about it, and it gives me pause.
Originally Posted by ORAC
Air defence systems operated by U.S.-led coalition troops based in eastern Syria halted six drone attacks targeting their base at the Conoco oil field on Saturday, a security source said. The source did not tell Reuters if there were casualties.
Coalition troops and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who together fight remnants of the Islamic State group, have faced increased attacks by Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq since Hamas’s attack against Israel on Oct. 7.
So ISIS is still around. They ought to be foes of the Iranian backed militias. I guess they become the militia's problem if the US pulls out?
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
Does this withdrawal impact the security of Israel?
It impacts the security of Iraq to a greater extent.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 13th Feb 2024 at 00:41.
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Old 12th Feb 2024, 20:18
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Harrier pilot downs 7 drones - Ace?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68227200
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Old 12th Feb 2024, 21:52
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Someone better tell the Americans the Harrier is rubbish and needs replacing. Shame we never kept them.
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Old 13th Feb 2024, 00:43
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The Marines are still flying them, in part, due to the years long delays of the F-35B.
I have a few Harrier pilot buds, and they liked it.
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Old 14th Feb 2024, 06:34
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Coordinated attack on the gas pipeline network across Iran. Iran claiming that this is a result of a terrorist attack.

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Old 14th Feb 2024, 06:46
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Iran's IRGC published a video today of launching a ballistic missile from their forward base Shahid Mahdavi (converted container ship).

The missile seems to be from Fateh series launched from a single launcher hidden inside a container.

A banner on the container (inside my green circle) shows the "The Great Prophet-18" exercise which actually happened around Jan 10, 2024 but was canceled and never declared due to some missile's failure.…




​​​​​​​More videos of the missiles track and air defense engagement in the Iranian port of Chabahar today where important military bases exist too.
COULD be air defense exercise as there was talks on the "The Great Prphet-18" exercise starting these days.
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Old 14th Feb 2024, 14:28
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Iran's IRGC published a video today of launching a ballistic missile from their forward base Shahid Mahdavi (converted container ship). The missile seems to be from Fateh series launched from a single launcher hidden inside a container. A banner on the container (inside my green circle) shows the "The Great Prophet-18" exercise which actually happened around Jan 10, 2024 but was canceled and never declared due to some missile's failure.…

More videos of the missiles track and air defense engagement in the Iranian port of Chabahar today where important military bases exist too.
COULD be air defense exercise as there was talks on the "The Great Prphet-18" exercise starting these days.
Our Navy does live missile exercises also.
I think that Iran has demonstrated an interesting capability here, something like the old "armed merchantman" that some navies used to deploy in the 19th and 20th century.
​​​​​​​It could be in a box on any old container ship, yes?
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Old 14th Feb 2024, 15:05
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welll.... I'd suggest it would be best to put THAT box on top of the pile........... and keep careful track of it during a voyage

given the thought processes of some of these non Govt groups we may see some dreadful accidents,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,


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Old 14th Feb 2024, 18:19
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The Seven P's would seem to apply on the Seven Seas.
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Old 14th Feb 2024, 21:50
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
The Seven P's
would seem to apply
on the Seven Seas.
I hadn't realised that you were a poet
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