Iran

[Chronic Snoozer]

Originally Posted by fdr

Oddly, I think it is appropriate for the U.S.A. to have withdrawn from their ratified, signatory position with the Treaty of Rome, which followed the earlier Hague International Peace Conferences of 1899 and 1907. (they didn't work so well) The U.S. withdrew on 6 May 2002. Probably wise, but uncomfortable for future historians.

The U.S. unsigned the “Rome Statute”. The “Treaty of Rome” is something different.

[RatherBeFlying]

Subsequent to Bibi's hugely optimistic briefing in the. WH Situation Room, there's a faint possibility that AO realizes that he was had by Bibi.

​​​Question: Will Bibi adhere to the ceasefire?

[PukinDog]

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown

Standing on a bridge or next to a power station in your own country a war crime?

No, but the act of deploying human shields is, even if nobody bombs them. It was clear my comment was referring to those who were doing the deploying.

What's next, trying to frame their Leaderships' recruitment and mobilization of 12 year-olds into the military as something that also confuses you as to who's running afoul of the law? However, just so there's no misunderstanding of this simple concept, it's not the child who's been promised divine rewards and martyr status by the Khomeinists if they die.





.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by T28B

Again, I apologize for intruding upon the conversation. How this applies to a bridge or a power plant I'll leave to someone far better informed in military law than I am, or ever was.

easiest answer: Major Jeanne M. Meyer, Tearing Down the Facade:A Critical Look at the Current Law on Targeting the Will of the Enemy and Air Force Doctrine., 51 A.FL. REV. 161 (2001).

Principle of Distinction p732

Principle of Proportionality p732


U.S. AIR FORCE, AIRMAN'S MANUAL (2004), p14.: "Do Not ... Attack noncombatants who include civilians ... "


HEADQUARTERS DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, SOLDIER'S MANUAL OF COMMON TASKS: SKILL LEVEL 1(2003)p 3-17.: states "the Hague conventions and customary international law limit targeting decisions, and that the latter prohibits "targeting or attacking civilians.' ".

Hamas has stated the criteria used to determine whether such operations are lawful and justified must and can only be an Islamic one. That is, the judgment must be made according to Quran and Sunnah, and them alone. All other criteria or standards of judgment must be rejected. To do otherwise, is un-Islamic.

That is not quite what the Quran says, but whatever...

Spoiler

 

 

The Qur'an permits fighting in self-defence but expressly limits it by prohibiting transgression (“fight in the way of God those who fight you, but do not transgress”), which aligns with the Law of Armed Conflict principle that force may only be directed against lawful targets and must remain within defined limits. It further requires that if an opponent ceases hostilities or seeks peace, fighting must stop, reflecting the LOAC obligation to cease the use of force when a combatant is hors de combat or no longer poses a threat.

The Qur’an also emphasises the protection of non-combatants and those not participating in hostilities, a principle developed further in classical Islamic jurisprudence, which parallels the LOAC requirement of distinction between civilians and combatants. In addition, the humane treatment of captives is mandated, with encouragement toward restraint, mercy, and in some cases release or ransom, corresponding to the Geneva Convention protections afforded to prisoners of war and detainees.

Prohibitions within the Qur’an and subsequent Islamic legal tradition against cruelty, mutilation, and unjust killing are consistent with LOAC rules forbidding violence to life and person, including murder and cruel treatment of those under control. The overarching requirement of justice and proportionality in response to aggression also mirrors LOAC principles that prohibit excessive or indiscriminate use of force.

Taken together, these elements demonstrate that core principles found within the Qur’an and classical Islamic jurisprudence substantially overlap with the foundational rules of the Law of Armed Conflict, particularly in relation to distinction, proportionality, humane treatment, and the protection of persons who are no longer participating in hostilities.

The problem with populist leaders is what they say is not fact checked, so $#1t happens, and all get messed up.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer

The U.S. unsigned the “Rome Statute”. The “Treaty of Rome” is something different.

D'oh! Corrected.

[fdr]

Well, the devil is in the details. There is going to be some biggly fall out from this once the wording has sunk in. I would be surprised if Bibi is going to be happy about this.
A cease fire is great news, the bill comes along in due course. What ever way this is spun, it appears to be more a "peace in our times" than the "unconditional surrender" that was proposed.

Bibi and Petey might be looking for new jobs soon, Mc Donalds might suit.

"the art of the deal". The fastest that a few trillion dollars has been added to the U.S. debt I would imagine. Still no mushy cloud.

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by TURIN

Two week break from bombing an entire civilisation to death.TACO has spoken.

Been suggested Iran needs the break but didn't want a longer one as that might temp the locals into an uprising. Two weeks is sufficient to keep the population under their thumb. I would suggest you explore all the potential reasons rather than blindly attributing to Trump backing down. In the final analysis I recognize Trump could have chickened out, just the same the bombastic language could have been messaging to the decision maker(s) left alive and they decided not to test it. Trump certainly had the ability to make it happen, the leadership in Iran recognized that.
If you're comfortable with the single minded angle you're working currently, then disregard.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Both sides are claiming victory but the claims are mutually exclusive. The most glaring is Trump is claiming the opening of the Straight of Hormuz will be complete, immediate and safe while the Iranians are claiming they still have exclusive jurisdiction over the Strait and will control the maritime traffic through it. Wednesday is going to be a very interesting day .......

[brokenagain]

No amount of mental gymnastics can deny that this could turn out to be the biggest failure of US foreign policy in living memory, if not ever.

[ORAC]

Iran's 10-point peace plan, via Iranian state media, reportedly agreed to as the "workable basis" for the upcoming negotiations:

[BANANASBANANAS]

Originally Posted by KiloB

Strange that the Media made no mention of War Crimes when Iran was firing random missiles into Countries not even involved in the war, but now it’s the expression of the week.

That is the additional moral burden that being the 'good guy' carries, Sadly, the USA is no longer the 'good guy' imho. It doesn't seem to be bothering the US Administration much though.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/20...662943471?s=20

The dust has finally settled following Iran's final missile salvo before the commencement of the ceasefire.

Iranian media says Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered all IRGC Aerospace Forces units to halt their missile fire. Meanwhile the US paused their attacks on Iran a few hours ago.

Israel launced a final wave of airstrikes on ballistic missile facilities and other military sites in Ahvaz, Dezful, Andimeshk, Khorramabad, Shahrekord, Kermanshah, and southern Tehran, but for now it has ceased all strikes on Iran and Lebanon.

The Iranians fired at least 13 ballistic missiles at Israel and the GCC, although I suspect at the number is higher. They also launched drones and several cruise missiles. Sirens were heard in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE (Dubai & Abu Dhabi), and Saudi Arabia (Yanbu, Riyadh, & Al-Kharj).

Iran fired its ballistic missiles from launch bases in Isfahan, Shiraz, Shahrebabak, Damavand, and perhaps from sites in western Iran. At least 7 missiles reached Israel, with 3 of them being intercepted, 1 hitting an open area in the center, and 3 BMs with cluster warheads around Haifa, Gush Dan, and Be'er Sheva.

Submunitions from the cluster BM that dispersed over Gush Dan impacted in Petah Tikvah and Bnei Brak. There was minor damage from submunitions or fragments in Haifa. In the south, 2 impacts were reported in Be'er Sheva, 3 in Tel Sheva, and 1 in Omer.

Besides unverified rumors, not much is known about the damage incurred by the Gulf states. However, the Abu Dhabi media office did confirm that authorities are dealing with fires at the Habshan gas processing facility.

[jolihokistix]

According to Al Jazeera, Netanyahu has specified that the peace plan will not affect their Lebanon operations.

[Bell_ringer]

And with that we are back in full jetblast mode again. You guys just cannot help yourselves - small people with big keyboards.

Globally this will be viewed as the US backing down and taking the first available off-ramp.
After all the cost, damage, disruption and lives risked and lost, there is an even nastier regime in place.
We're back to the original pre-war negotiation stance of Iran wanting to enrich for civilian projects, where the US wanted zero capability.
The people are no more free than they ever were just with fewer schools, universities and less public infrastructure.
Global anti-US/Israeli sentiment is at an all-time hight - foreigners will be less safe than ever.

A complete shambles from start to quasi-end, with the two main protagonists just as committed to conflict as they ever were.
The services did what was asked of them and they did it well, I wonder how many will be scratching their heads this morning, or maybe they will just be pleased to be closer to going home.

Jobs a goodun.

[Wyntor]

Alternative View

Iran has been damaged badly and militarily degraded substantially. It has not however, been "oblitetated", "defanged" etc etc. It's military has not had 100% of its capability destroyed as we were told a few weeks ago.

As demonstrated after the ceasefire was announced, it retains the capability to strike Israel, its Gulf neighbours and the Strait.

It still has "friends" that will help it rearm and rebuild and those friends will be even more well established in the Gulf than they were before this "excursion".

The Regime is still in power, albeit with changes in leadership and a bunch of new Generals at the top .....Iran that is.

The world is not safer. I doubt the Gulf feels safer. The global economy is badly wounded and will take a long time to recover.

US standing in the world is greatly diminished.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Bell_ringer

And with that we are back in full jetblast mode again. You guys just cannot help yourselves - small people with big keyboards. Jobs a goodun.

„Der Krieg ist eine bloße Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln.“

This circus is somewhat different, but von Clausewitz was pretty insightful in his comments in 1827 in his comments, Vom Kriege, Book I, Chapter 1 (§24)

Would be hard to avoid comments on war not including political context, that would be like having bacon without annoying the pig.

Originally Posted by Bell_ringer

Globally this will be viewed as the US backing down and taking the first available off-ramp.
After all the cost, damage, disruption and lives risked and lost, there is an even nastier regime in place.
We're back to the original pre-war negotiation stance of Iran wanting to enrich for civilian projects, where the US wanted zero capability.
The people are no more free than they ever were just with fewer schools, universities and less public infrastructure.
Global anti-US/Israeli sentiment is at an all-time hight - foreigners will be less safe than ever.

Almost, the U.S. position and the Gulfs position is far weaker than it was at the start of this excursion. The rest of the world is none too pleased on the antics in the sand pit. Although... at least some people made money on the bourse with the swings and roundabouts. (Its always about the money)

Originally Posted by Bell_ringer

A complete shambles from start to quasi-end, with the two main protagonists just as committed to conflict as they ever were.
The services did what was asked of them and they did it well, I wonder how many will be scratching their heads this morning, or maybe they will just be pleased to be closer to going home.

Shambles? absolutely; hardly a surprise. It's not 2 protagonists, check the scorecard.

Originally Posted by Bell_ringer

Jobs a goodun.

Indeed, best job, ever.

[fdr]

what winning looks like

hmmm.

[Bell_ringer]

Originally Posted by fdr

It's not 2 protagonists, check the scorecard.

Yip. Iran 1 US 0.

For the regime merely to survive was going to be a win, they achieved that and, from the initial proposed agreement, much, much more.

You're confusing the size of someone's hammer as an indication of ability and success, but it is only one tool with limited effectiveness beyond destruction of infrastructure, not of will. Infrastructure can be rebuilt, and from the sound of things, there is still no shortage of missiles and drones, nor the ability to produce them.
The Iranians have a much smaller toolbox but it is filled with a wider variety of tools which they still retain, along with the desire to use it and the same network of willing allies.
They absolutely are a serious protagonist in the region, if they weren't there would be no conflict.

Military action is no more likely to stop extremism than it could stop stupidity.
It absolutely will not stop the domestic nutters who will drive their cars into crowds or build pressure cooker bombs for public events, something that this action has guaranteed by recruiting new generations of martyrs for the cause.

We have learned all these lessons before, but at least all the defence companies are in for serious dividends for the foreseeable future.

[shed loads]

“what winning looks like”.

I take your point but I’m not sure I see any "winners" in this sorry episode FDR.

All I see are losers, everywhere, many millions (billions?) literally, a few figuratively.

[Bfah]

I notice in Orac's post #5084.
'Limited' daily passage in the strait...
Is that going to satisfy the Donald..?

From my understanding of the 'terms' of the post, is that Iran holds all the cards...

Cluster f^%k comes to mind.