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Paris Attacked!

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Old 19th Nov 2015, 09:20
  #181 (permalink)  
Danny42C
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John (your #175),

All true, but I think that the turning point in the Japanese war was rather Midway. That removed all seaborne threat to the W.Coast cities of the US, and more importantly broke the back of Japanese naval air power in the Pacific. From then on the war in that theatre could only go one way: there was no way back for Japan, as the American yards could out-build them three to one.

The Dams raid, although it was a partial success in its stated objective, had an enormous "unintended consequence". The Germans rebuilt the Dams in a few months, but at a fatal cost - the diversion of civil engineering resources from other tasks - among them from finishing off the Normandy section of Hitler's "West Wall". The next year we went ashore there, and "the rest is history".

Of course, the prime example has to be the Hiroshima bomb. "People say", declared Air Marshal Harris in 1942 (?), "that aerial bombing alone can never win a war. I would say that it has not been tried yet, and we shall see"......Three years later we saw. I have a particular interest in this, I was out there at the time, we all knew that the final stage of the land/sea war would have to be an invasion of the Japanese homeland, and that was a fearsome prospect. It was conservatively estimated that it would cost a million Allied lives (very possibly including yours truly !) to subjugate Japan.

Pontius Navigator (#170) is on the button. On another Thread somewhere a few days ago was an account of the US using the "obsolete" Giant Warthogs to take out a convoy of ISIS oil tankers on their way to market. Now there's a really good idea ! I assume that there isn't a pipeline they can use (or the stuff would never be on the road), and a camel can't shift much.

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Old 19th Nov 2015, 10:01
  #182 (permalink)  
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Returning to the origin subject and Paris - it would seem the latest cell were caught by the usual achilles heel - their phones. Link below and a rough translation from Bing.

Attentats : les terroristes trahis par leurs téléphones

Attacks: terrorists betrayed by their phones

A laptop containing a plan of the Bataclan and a text message found near the location of the attack helped to trace the apartments as well as monitoring of the cousin of Abaaoud phone.

Tuesday, Mediapart can reveal the existence of the first clue: a phone found in a trash can near the Bataclan, containing a detailed plan of the concert hall and an SMS written at 9:42 pm Friday night, revealed by an informant as saying:

"It is gone. It begins."

This phone, according to the information of the informant, enabled the location one of the terrorist "hideouts". Searching through the phone geolocation data, investigators discover that the terrorists passed through Alfortville (Val-de-Marne) just before the attack. Salah Abdeslam, for whom they were already searching, was found to have rented two bedrooms in the Hotel Alfortville.

Investigators have not established the identity of the recipient of the SMS or what terrorist of the Bataclan attack owned the phone. But this SMS confirmed coordination of the attack wit an outsider. A restaurant client told the "Figaro" that the assailants Polo was parked on the street near Bataclan, prior to the attack and that at least one of them was using a Smartphone:

"I saw the face of the driver and the passenger as they began to tap on the smartphone, making it light up their faces. It was the passenger who was to using his mobile phone."

Saint-Denis hideout found thanks to the "telephony"

Since Friday, the mobile phones of terrorists were at the center of the investigation and the Paris Prosecutor hinted Wednesday morning that telephone tapping had identified Saint-Denis as the possible hideout and base of Belgian jihadist Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the alleged attack's sponsor.

"In this investigation, much work was carried out and allowed to obtain, by telephony, surveillance and testimony, which could suggest that the named [AAA] Abaaoud could be found in a conspirators apartment in Saint-Denis", said François Molins after the end of the police assault launched in the early morning.

The weak point of the terrorists? According to our information, Abaaoud's own cousin, a young Frenchwoman of Moroccan origin who was, as explained by Itele, triply monitored by the judicial services (Sdat), police and intelligence. It was she who died Wednesday morning in the explosion of her explosive vest, within the first minutes of the assault.

Not without, as TF1 has learned from a source close to the investigation, making a final phone call... possibly to "warn accomplices", that investigators have yet to identify.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 10:13
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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A large bucket of sunshine dropped on Japan pretty much brought an end to their involvement in WWII and the war itself.
Let's not forget that when that was dropped no one else in the entire world had Nukes.

I know ISIS do not have them.

But let's get specific instead of just writing 'Nuke them'

Come on Armchair strategists, give me your targeting lists, yield and delivery systems.

Raqqa and Mosul I assume? 1, 5 or 10 Kiloton? 2 or 3 warheads to spread the damage or one big **** off 1 Megaton weapon.

What about fallout patterns? Any analysis done as to where this stuff is going to come down?

Can we confirm all the leaders of ISIS are within the blast radius of the weapons? Or is this simply a demonstration of mass firepower and wanton destruction?

And just suppose that we do employ nuclear weapons and then another Paris type outrage happens anyway. We have used our weapons of last resort and failed. What then?

Start expanding the target list to countries that support ISIS with logistical and financial support?

I look forward to your planning documents.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 11:18
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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"You can bomb them back to the Stone Age..." Which, unfortunately, is exactly where IS want to be!

The "let's bomb"/"don't bomb" argument is all very well but what's missing so far is a coherent plan as to how extending the air assault will achieve victory. Or even agreement as to what would constitute victory.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 11:31
  #185 (permalink)  
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Worth reading.

As everyone else was hoisting the French flag on Facebook, a Dutch student named Hanna gave her profile picture the colors of the Syrian flag. The act led to a spirited chat on WhatsApp with her dad, who runs out of comebacks as their conversation goes on. Meanwhile, Hanna shares insights quite a few government leaders could learn from.

WhatsApp after Paris: 18-year-old Hanna teaches her dad a thing or two

Eighteen-year-old Hanna Nijenhuis wrote her final term paper at her Dutch high school on why the United States managed to win two world wars yet has failed in smaller conflicts. These days, Hanna studies German in Berlin. Her father, Hans Nijenhuis, is opinion editor of the respected Dutch daily newspaper NRC Handelsblad. Last Monday night, they had the following chat on WhatsApp.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 11:59
  #186 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by strake
Not quite sure how we close 2000km of borders in mainland Europe.

<snip>
Many years ago I went on holiday to the Pyrenees, staying in Lescun. There was the day I was dropped off to walk up one of the gorges. I popped out at the top, over into Spain, with not another person in sight. I could have easily carried on to Madrid, given enough time and a credit card or two.

I've also scrambled up to and along the French-Swiss border and walked from there down to a Swiss hut.

You are quite right, whatever border controls are in place there are many places where at the right time of year it's ever so easy to walk from one country to another.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 12:05
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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who runs out of comebacks as their conversation goes on
I have a 17 year old daughter and that is a common occurrence. Does not mean she is always right.

Evening Standard had a piece in it last night as to why the deaths in places like Africa do not get as much column inches as the events that happened in France. Cannot find a link but it basically said 'the further the distance, the less they can sell it'. Harsh but true.

And as her father I would have had some serious words with her, and a very, very one sided conversation about her personal security if she displayed a Syrian flag at this time on her Farcebook page.

Out of interest what was her profile picture before the attacks in Paris?

One of those soft lighted 3/4 turn to the camera shots that make the user look good?

Edit to add: Yes I know Syria is not ISIS. But lunatics on the net are not known for their ability to discriminate or for their sense of reason.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 13:54
  #188 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ExRAFRadar
I look forward to your planning documents.
I don't think anyone was or is advocating the use of nukes, but were responding to "when did air power/airstrike" do something decisive?"

Completely agree with your point on what has to be considered if nukes are even on the table, which I am pretty sure they are NOT in either political or military leadership circles.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:05
  #189 (permalink)  
 
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I agree Lonewolf, I assume they are not being considered but the military would be remiss if they are not at least gaming out some scenario that involves the application of E=MC2

My main 'annoyance' I guess is the word I am looking for is the

"when did air power/airstrike" do something decisive?"
bit and people using WW2 as the example.

As I said, no one had nuclear weapons when that happened except the people using them.

To infer the events in August 1945 have any bearing on the multi-polar and heavily nuclear armed world of today is completely false.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:10
  #190 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ExRAFRadar
I agree Lonewolf, I assume they are not being considered but the military would be remiss if they are not at least gaming out some scenario that involves the application of E=MC2
With respect, I disagree. Unless there is political direction to begin that planning process, there is no reason to waste the time on that. (I think we've both been staff officers?) I helped to retire some Op Plans using tactical nukes when I worked in NATO. (Yay, never was a burn bag better used, IMO). The general stepping back from the assumed use of tactical nukes when the Wall came down, and for that matter the negotiations in the 80's with that objective in mind, has not been reversed at the political level. I'll suggest quite the opposite.
To infer the events in August 1945 have any bearing on the multi-polar and heavily nuclear armed world of today is completely false.
Agreed completely. Each situation is evaluated on its own merits and demerits -- there is no cookie cutter (I can still hear our instructor at the Staff College stamping his feet each time he said that ).
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:22
  #191 (permalink)  
 
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ExRafRadar
But let's get specific instead of just writing 'Nuke them'I look forward to your planning documents.
My quote reference a large bucket of sunshine was not a strategic targeting plan or reference to wanton destruction. It was an answer to a direct question from Hangarshuffle, which clearly had a direct impact on ending WWII.

Hangarshuffle
RAF historians lurking here, out of interest to me alone can anyone point to me when an air attack, an air raid has made a profound input/difference to a war or battle. Real strategic impact.
A large bucket of sunshine dropped on Japan pretty much brought an end to their involvement in WWII and the war itself.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:26
  #192 (permalink)  
 
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Unless there is political direction to begin that planning process, there is no reason to waste the time on that.
Lonewolf you are quite correct, think I fell into my own trap. Remember that horrible old saying about West German towns being 10 Kilotons apart?

Staff Officer - Never sir, Other Rank myself. I used to work for a living.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:28
  #193 (permalink)  
 
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ATC - apologies. I took it out of context and did my own inferring.

I think I was getting this thread and the one in JB a bit mixed up.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:36
  #194 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ExRAFRadar
Lonewolf you are quite correct, think I fell into my own trap. Remember that horrible old saying about West German towns being 10 Kilotons apart?
Heh, that takes me back to my misspent youth ...
Staff Officer - Never sir, Other Rank myself. I used to work for a living.
Sorry, bad guess on my part, and thanks for all of that work!
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:47
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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ExRafRadarATC - apologies.
I took it out of context and did my own inferring.

I think I was getting this thread and the one in JB a bit mixed up.
It happens to us all eventually but don't worry I have re-alligned my armchair position for a better key board aiming strategy
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:49
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Worth reading.

As everyone else was hoisting the French flag on Facebook, a Dutch student named Hanna gave her profile picture the colors of the Syrian flag. The act led to a spirited chat on WhatsApp with her dad, who runs out of comebacks as their conversation goes on. Meanwhile, Hanna shares insights quite a few government leaders could learn from.

WhatsApp after Paris: 18-year-old Hanna teaches her dad a thing or two

Eighteen-year-old Hanna Nijenhuis wrote her final term paper at her Dutch high school on why the United States managed to win two world wars yet has failed in smaller conflicts. These days, Hanna studies German in Berlin. Her father, Hans Nijenhuis, is opinion editor of the respected Dutch daily newspaper NRC Handelsblad. Last Monday night, they had the following chat on WhatsApp.
usual fluffy leftist blue sky thinking

Unfortunately IS only do one colour that is the darkness of oppression and death
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 15:05
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From the Hanna exchange: Two days before Paris, a bunch of people died in attacks in Beirut. But I’m not seeing Lebanese flags anywhere.
Beirut, once 'the Paris of the Middle East'.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 15:12
  #198 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Easy Street
The "accidental" bombing of Berlin in 1940 had a famously strategic effect.
There was an earlier accidental bombing that was later used to justify bombing of cities. Arguably this too had a most significant effect though in tit end the opposite of what was intended.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bomb...on_10_May_1940

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 19th Nov 2015 at 17:07.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 17:36
  #199 (permalink)  
 
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Nigeria's Dasuki 'stole $2bn' from anti-Boko Haram fight - BBC News

Might go some way to explain why the Nigerian problem has not been solved.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 18:04
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All good replies.

Yes some good answers, missions and events that I must have once read about but had also now forgotten about.
I'm agreeing with Shot One. We can be involved in bombing somewhere yet again, but that alone wont ever end the cycle of violence...is our involvement going to be even worth it?
I would simply like to keep the foreign war money and transfer it to home defence in its very various meanings and ways. Preferably, a last line of defence - armed troops to guard major conurbations, towns, our transport systems. To shoot back at them, if it has to come to that, to take them down. Its a sobering thought and hardly an ideal strategy, really.
The defence of the UK seems to be entirely focused around London, but the attacks could come anywhere, when they come, and they probably will if we start bombing...Glasgow Airport attack hardly anyone ever seems to mention.
* I got the nod from my boss to write off London as a traffic/transit hub if I wish... no more tube or train from now on in or out of the city. It will probably cost us slightly more money as a company. All this hardly makes me proud of myself or feel clever about it... reduce the risk ALARP.
HS.
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