This Is Not Funny Anymore! (Russia And The Baltic Sea)

[Herod]

Putin is getting very old, he won't be able to lead his country for a long.

I make him 62, not even old enough for a pension in UK.

[Tankertrashnav]

Are they absolutely 100% nuts over there? Why is it that Russians, that are usually very friendly and fun, seem to attract such horrible horrible leaders?

You have to get inside the mindset of the Russian people, who, as you rightly say are friendly and fun. In the 4 months I spent there in 1992 I met some of the friendliest, nicest people I have ever met. Mind you this may have just been the contrast after spending the previous four months in Paris, where the opposite was the case!

However for centuries the Russians have been brainwashed into believing they are surrounded by a hostile world and have to defend themselves at all costs, and to an extent they have some historical justification for this view. To this end they have always admired strong leaders, and it should come as no surprise to learn that Putin has an over 80% approval rating in Russia. What wouldn't most Western leaders do for that sort of rating? Gorbachev, on the other hand, a leader we regarded as progressive and reasonable, was unpopular, and few in the country would like to see his style of leadership return.

Putin of course plays on this paranoia, and goes from strength to strength. And as for too old - compared with the likes of Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko he's nobbut a lad yet!

[carlrsymington]

Not pro Putin but....

"Putin is getting very old, he won't be able to lead his country for a long."

How old are you? 12?

It seems to me we are going to face him for a very long time. Forget his age. He portrays an image as extremely physically fit & I don't doubt it. He doesn't appear to be an addict (Yeltsin).
He is probably as physically fit as Obama & Cameron.

I obviously don't know his parents \ family medical history but the best we can hope for is some form of genetic defect ..heart condition (heart attack while entertaining his girlfriend Alina Kabaeva) and fear he doesn't go senile..

Gone to have a cup of tea, no wait 1 lump or 2 of polonium?

[MSOCS]

PrOOne,

And Russia is less then a quarter of what the Soviet Union and the Warsaw pact were....

Two Nuclear armed parties squaring up, if it happens, then it goes nuclear, so it won't happen.

If we're going to compare Cold War then I'd say we're probably less than half of what we were back then (30 Squadrons compared to what, 8 now?) So, are we to sit back and watch Putin push one border after another - cat and mouse style - content in the knowledge that we've the ultimate weapon of deterrence? Are you saying we'd push the big red button if Putin were to march troops into Estonia and Latvia with heavy armour and a claim on former Soviet territories? No, we wouldn't, because it would escalate out of all control. He knows that, we know that. Only the threat of a robust conventional deterrent would prevent another Ukraine in the short term. That and a willingness to intervene where needed and show solidarity. Baltic Air Policing is only one part.

As we all know, Hitler had a fair head of steam on by the time we decided enough was enough. History can't repeat itself because we have Nukes....right???!

[MrSnuggles]

Please could some of you stop trolling around here? I am very grateful for those who take this matter seriously and come with insightful posts. Thankyou all.

I am seriously worried. Russian and Soviet leaders has a worrying ability to stay alive for very long, and also for being really weird. Gorbachev was the only one to actually keep his wits, but then he didn't last that long either. Yeltsin was a fun guy, but we can all agree he was a bit, erhm... too funny... at the end. So now this Putin. A former KGB agent.

Are we back to the former terror balance between East and West? I wouldn't like that.

I will, however, let you know that the politicians are talking about increasing defence budget this very day. I really hope the submarine hunt was a wake up call. Many leading media persons have strongly critizised the gouvernment for failing the Defence since then.

Another thing I forgot to mention, we had a TU-22 over Öland a few weeks ago. Skimming Swedish territory. Frightening.

[hunterboy]

With regard to the potential Chinese or Russian use of Greek ports, I would have thought it would be quite advantageous for NATO having a potential adversaries equipment in a "friendly" port?
Espionage would be easier, and it has to be easier to sink ships in a Greek port rather than a Russian one, even if just by "accident" ?

[Green Guard]

Tankertrashnav
Your statement:
"However for centuries the Russians have been brainwashed into believing they are surrounded by a hostile world and have to defend themselves at all costs, and to an extent they have some historical justification for this view"
...is very good. But you have to read it again and again
in order to understand that for centuries it was Russia who was attacked to be occupied from Swedes via Germans and French and whole Europe combined.
Never opposite.
So why we worry now ?
Waiting for more "democracy" from John McCain ?

[Jollygreengiant64]

MrSnuggles, could I ask whether you have real inside information on increased spending, or is this just you speculating like the rest of us? I'm genuinely interested.

Also, is this increase a reference solely to the rumoured new MPA that has been around for weeks or something new on top?

Hopefully this is just the tip of a large funding iceberg; with the length of time it takes western governments to decide to do something, let alone organise it, the situation with Russia/ China will be a whole lot more obvious to the public and in need of a bit more than a few token pence.

[t43562]

Russia is big. How did it get that way? Conquest? Perhaps they are not justified in pointing any fingers.

[Martin the Martian]

Okay, Green Guard, I'll bite, though doubtless I'll regret it.

When exactly did 'whole Europe combined' occupy Russia? I've had a good look at my history books but I am having trouble finding that chapter.

And what does John McCain have to do with it? He may be chair of the US Senate Armed Services Committee but that gives him as much say in what goes on in the White House as the lady who brings the tea trolley around.

[pr00ne]

MSOCS,


You misinterpret my words. I don't think that the West is, or should, just be sitting back fat dumb and happy behind the nuclear shield. If Russia went into the Baltic States then NATO would respond conventionally, and substantially, and then I would worry that it would be Putin who would resort to a nuclear response.

[MrSnuggles]

Jollygreengiant64

MrSnuggles, could I ask whether you have real inside information on increased spending, or is this just you speculating like the rest of us? I'm genuinely interested.

Also, is this increase a reference solely to the rumoured new MPA that has been around for weeks or something new on top?

To quote myself:

the politicians are talking about increasing defence budget this very day

I listened to speeches from various political leaders and there were voices among them that wanted more defence muscles. As I also said, it seems that the submarine hunt and our embarrassing failure in that regard was a wake up call here. SAAB-Kockum did get two firm orders on Baltic Sea submarines 3-4 months ago, to be delivered around 2025. They have also been ordered to upgrade all existing naval equipment to world class standard.

That doesn't help much when Russia skims Swedish territory with potential nuclear bombers right NOW.

I wholeheartedly wish that Norway could have withstood the pressure from the US to buy their F-35s and gone for the Gripen or Rafaele instead. Now they have an ageing airforce fleet and nothing to replace it with (see the F-35 thread for more info). Finland is better armed, but then they are Finnish and never trusted that old bear.

As I am not 100% sure what you mean by MPA (you English speaking people don't like whole words, do you? ), I dare not answer that question until I know.

[MrSnuggles]

proone:

... Putin who would resort to a nuclear response.

This is what worries me too. He seems so genuinely paranoid and the same time entitled - a very dangerous combination.

What worries me also, and this is relateed to the picture in my first post, is that he just skips over the Baltic countries and comes close to the Swedish territorial airspace and shoots flares at our military aircraft, or sweeps by them with 50 metres separation. This shows to me that in his mind he doesn't give a rats ass about the Baltics. They are after all closer to us than Russia is, but he just skips them as if everything was Soviet.

[MrSnuggles]

for centuries it was Russia who was attacked to be occupied from Swedes via Germans and French and whole Europe combined

In the very early 1700's there was a megalomaniac Swedish king who beat the living daylight out of some Russian forces to gain a few sqkm's of land. It took no more than a year for Russia to reclaim this land while this particular king was fighting the Danes in Norway. Well, some war tired Swede realised the king was nuts and put a bullet in his head. Ever since that king, Sweden never once tried anything like that ever again.

Next time someone tried to invade Russia for real, not just fighting over which parts of Poland they should get (poor Poland, always in the middle...) was during WWII. We all know how that ended. After the war, the Soviet started invading other countries though, Hungary 1956 and Czechoslovakia 1968 are two very high profile cases. Now Russia has invaded Ukraine with some super sleuth distorted legal wrangling type reasons.

France never tried to invade Russia. I do not know how you come to that conclusion. Europe combined never tried to invade Russia or Soviet. We were buddies during the war, united against the Nazis, remember?

-------------------

ETA: During the war, Soviet tried to invade Finland though. I can do nothing but applaud my Finnish brothers and sisters for their courage, strenght and determination. They did something truly awesome during the Finnish Winter War. I am proud to have such neighbours that withstood one of the world's biggest armies. In a very tiny way Sweden contributed by advertising for volunteers - "Finlands sak är vår!" translates to "The Finnish cause is also ours!". I have relatives who in many ways supported both Norwegians and Finnish people during the war. A few went to the Winter War, others helped Norwegian resistance movement by smuggling provisions and other contraband to them. Oh well, a threadjack, let's return to the present day now.

[Herod]

MrSnuggles. My late father-in-law was a Swedish trawlerman who spent quite some time in WWII as a soldier up on the border with Norway. People don't appreciate what Sweden did, thinking them cowardly neutrals as opposed to the "brave" Norwegians. Reading the history of the war, Sweden played a good part in the victory by being "neutral but Allied-friendly".

Any further word from the politicians on joining NATO? It wouldn't compromise your neutrality, since it's purely a defensive treaty. (I think?)

[Thud105]

"We were buddies during the war, united against the Nazis, remember?"

Point of order; -No you weren't, Sweden never fought the Nazis (but did allow the German Army to use the Swedish railway system.) That's not to say that the Swedes were pro-Nazi, but the Swedish government definetely weren't anti.

[Lonewolf_50]

Being neutral: worked so well for the US during WW I.

Wait, no it didn't, eventually.

Neutrality: yes, you're special, but you still take risks that the powers will have a use for you being neutral. If they don't, your neutrality doesn't protect you.

[evansb]

Remember that after the fall of communism in the Soviet Union, Russia's major export to the western world was the Russian Mafia.

[Wokkafans]

An interesting albeit slightly lengthy read, released today:

The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015: The United States Military’s Contribution To National Security June 2015


http://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Docume...y_Strategy.pdf

On Russia:

"Despite these changes, states remain the international system’s dominant actors. They are preeminent in their capability to harness power, focus human endeavors, and provide security. Most states today — led by the United States, its allies, and partners — support the established institutions and processes dedicated to preventing conflict, respecting sovereignty, and furthering human rights. Some states, however, are attempting to revise key aspects of the international order and are acting in a manner that threatens our national security interests.

While Russia has contributed in select security areas, such as counternarcotics and counterterrorism, it also has repeatedly demonstrated that it does not respect the sovereignty of its neighbors and it is willing to use force to achieve its goals. Russia’s military actions are undermining regional security directly and through proxy forces. These actions violate numerous agreements that Russia has signed in which it committed to act in accordance with international norms, including the UN Charter, Helsinki Accords, Russia-NATO Founding Act, Budapest Memorandum, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

***

Today, the probability of U.S. involvement in interstate war with a major power is assessed to be low but growing. Should one occur, however, the consequences would be immense.

***

In Europe, we remain steadfast in our commitment to our NATO allies. NATO provides vital collective security guarantees and is strategically important for deterring conflict, particularly in light of recent Russian aggression on its periphery. U.S. Operation ATLANTIC RESOLVE, our European Reassurance Initiative, NATO’s Readiness Action Plan, and the many activities, exercises, and investments contained in them serve to underline our dedication to alliance solidarity, unity, and security. We also will continue to support our NATO partners to increase their interoperability with U.S. forces and to provide for their own defense."

[Herod]

Sweden never fought the Nazis

. It's as well they didn't, at least officially. What happened on the Swedish/Norwegian border would make a good story if anyone had access to the facts. They would probably have been overrun, and then we wouldn't have a friend in the middle of the enemy's camp. Sweden leased a number of telephone lines to the German forces, and promptly began feeding intelligence to the Allies. They also provided a safe haven for downed aircrew and a way of attacking the forces in Norway from the rear. Read Bernt Balchen's autobiography of the Stockholm-UK flights during the war. Agents in, intelligence out.