Yemen.....2
No - they'll just stir it up somewhere else - plenty of lunatics and people's with a grievance to tap into
You forget they Iranians have been under sanctions etc for nearly 50 years - they can take it.......... they don't LIKE it of course but for most of the population it's "normal"
You forget they Iranians have been under sanctions etc for nearly 50 years - they can take it.......... they don't LIKE it of course but for most of the population it's "normal"
The Wall Street Journal has said experts are investigating whether the attacks could have been carried out from the north - either by Iran or its Shia allies in Iraq - using cruise missiles rather than drones. If so, it seems unlikely they would have escaped detection.
Strange that when Russian base in Syria is being attacked they are regularly able to shoot down the drones.
Of course, given the damage inflicted by these small drones, Saudi might want to purchase a few regiments of Bofors guns or some Skysweepers, if they can still be found.
Strange that when Russian base in Syria is being attacked they are regularly able to shoot down the drones.
Defending a single base is a very different proposition to defending critical infrastructure spread widely across vast areas. And indiscriminate GPS jamming helps a lot when the threats are cheap drones. I wonder if we’ll see it being employed more widely.
I think Yemen is a Spanish Civil War style preview that we are seeing, one where the various players experiment on the hapless population.
The Shiite side has less money, but is at least as dedicated as their Sunni opponents. I'd bet on their resistance causing a fracture in the Sunni team, possibly even within the Saudi leadership. It cannot be happy news to the princes to see their incomes slashed because of MBS's war.
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No doubt that several reasonable explanations can be found why the Saudis did not shoot down those UAVs.
Nevertheless, the fact is that a country having 80+ Patriot complexes (PAC-2 and PAC-3) was unable to defend an important object of its infrastructure. I assume the "human factor" is the main "contributor". They were either "sleeping" or could not operate the equipment properly. Or/and poor tactical training: with that many defense stuff they have purchased over the years, they still have huge holes in the perimeter.
However, the question remains about the US Navy. They have some destroyers in the Persian Gulf and all around that area. Good radars, trained and qualified personnel. Why did not they detect those UAVs even if shooting them down was not their responsibility? Those drones and cruise missiles (at least the ones shown on TV) look quite primitive. No stealth at all, RCS' seem to be similar to a 3rd generation fighter.
Nevertheless, the fact is that a country having 80+ Patriot complexes (PAC-2 and PAC-3) was unable to defend an important object of its infrastructure. I assume the "human factor" is the main "contributor". They were either "sleeping" or could not operate the equipment properly. Or/and poor tactical training: with that many defense stuff they have purchased over the years, they still have huge holes in the perimeter.
However, the question remains about the US Navy. They have some destroyers in the Persian Gulf and all around that area. Good radars, trained and qualified personnel. Why did not they detect those UAVs even if shooting them down was not their responsibility? Those drones and cruise missiles (at least the ones shown on TV) look quite primitive. No stealth at all, RCS' seem to be similar to a 3rd generation fighter.
At the political level, it is very likely that the Saudi military do not want to be seen as having their hands held by the USN.
(And as I don't know where the USN assets were on that particular day, I have no idea what engagement geometry may or may not have been available for that particular defended area, nor which sensor packages would be positioned for such an event)
Regarding Patriots: as a TBMD asset it is a different air defense asset than any number of other Anti Air asset for small, slow movers. Your calling out of the Patriots would make sense of this was an attack by Theater Ballistic Missiles like Scud and the various mods and improvements to that missile family. But that does not seem to be what hit the Saudi oil facility.
The other points on "who was awake and on task" reminds me of the question regarding Malaysian Radar sites and MH 370. If the radar is there, and on, but the operators are not paying close attention, some bad things can happen.
Or/and poor tactical training
Here's an idea: the Saudis' threat assessment led to a gap that was exploited.
Ain't the first time something like that ever happened. Won't be the last.
The Houthies have acknowledged that they got help in mounting this strike and there are plausible reports the strike came from southern Iraq, which is a Shia enclave, one that Saddam was trying to crush earlier.
So they are a community that has the same experience with Sunni assaults as the Houthies and is proximate to Shia Iran, so easily supplied with weapons. Their sector is also much closer to the target site.
Simultaneously, it seems plausible that the Saudis would not focus on their northern borders, an omission which clearly has cost them dear.
That means Iran is at most on the hook for arms sales/deliveries to its coreligionists, which at worst puts them into the same boat as the US and NATO wrt Saudi and their coalition.
Act of war??
So they are a community that has the same experience with Sunni assaults as the Houthies and is proximate to Shia Iran, so easily supplied with weapons. Their sector is also much closer to the target site.
Simultaneously, it seems plausible that the Saudis would not focus on their northern borders, an omission which clearly has cost them dear.
That means Iran is at most on the hook for arms sales/deliveries to its coreligionists, which at worst puts them into the same boat as the US and NATO wrt Saudi and their coalition.
Act of war??
That's a good question in terms of geopolitics: who will so characterize this event as an act of war, and for what purpose?
I think that Prince Mohammad Bin Salman making a clear public statement about taking this to the UN is a tentative step in preparing the ground for that option: but that option will become subject to the various jockeying about at the UN and the UNSC as whatever team to inspect is picked, who is among the players, and what they find, and then what they report. (Those two are not necessarily the same). In other words, he's both buying time and getting a feel for how well that assertion will sell on the great stage of world opinion and among the UNSC members. Garnering political support from more than one or two sources would be in Prince MBS's interest.
From your observation a few days ago
Based on the latest noise in the news, it would appear that the impact is less than first reported.
But I'd say it's too early to tell.
I think that Prince Mohammad Bin Salman making a clear public statement about taking this to the UN is a tentative step in preparing the ground for that option: but that option will become subject to the various jockeying about at the UN and the UNSC as whatever team to inspect is picked, who is among the players, and what they find, and then what they report. (Those two are not necessarily the same). In other words, he's both buying time and getting a feel for how well that assertion will sell on the great stage of world opinion and among the UNSC members. Garnering political support from more than one or two sources would be in Prince MBS's interest.
From your observation a few days ago
Of course, knowing the Saudis, it is not impossible that they are accentuating the damage reports in order to increase the pressure on Iran, which is sure to be blamed for facilitating this strike.
But I'd say it's too early to tell.
Interesting that it appears Houthi's have gone and acquired huge amount of barely used equipment plus it is claimed 3 "Brigades" of KSA armed forces. The equipment appeared to stretch over a bit of a distance plus some of the videos show couple of thousand men taken prisoner. Definition of size of a KSA Brigade may be open to question.
Interesting that it appears Houthi's have gone and acquired huge amount of barely used equipment plus it is claimed 3 "Brigades" of KSA armed forces. The equipment appeared to stretch over a bit of a distance plus some of the videos show couple of thousand men taken prisoner. Definition of size of a KSA Brigade may be open to question.
I'd say give it 48 hours and check back. A bit more detail may be forthcoming by then.
Reports of getting a hold of some valuable equipment seems to stand up.
First reports being subject to variation in veracity, it seems that the BBC are skeptical.
I'd say give it 48 hours and check back. A bit more detail may be forthcoming by then.
Reports of getting a hold of some valuable equipment seems to stand up.
I'd say give it 48 hours and check back. A bit more detail may be forthcoming by then.
Reports of getting a hold of some valuable equipment seems to stand up.
This shows a lot of people and equipment and don't think Oshkosh gave any equipment to Yemen.
3 Saudi Military Brigades Destroyed in a Yemeni Offensive in Najran, Thousands Taken Prisoners. September 29, 2019
https://twitter.com/thoulfikar3ali
Not sure how to post the T*****r link seprately but the poor video shows lots of celebration and a pretty deceny sized convoy. but looking further down Bojo is suggesting Rouhani jump into a swimming pool.
BBC Foreign Service will parrot what Saudi's say until they cannot. Not sure whether there is still the fawning interview Frank Gardner did with MBS a couple of years ago.
This shows a lot of people and equipment and don't think Oshkosh gave any equipment to Yemen.
3 Saudi Military Brigades Destroyed in a Yemeni Offensive in Najran, Thousands Taken Prisoners. September 29, 2019
https://twitter.com/thoulfikar3ali
Not sure how to post the T*****r link seprately but the poor video shows lots of celebration and a pretty deceny sized convoy. but looking further down Bojo is suggesting Rouhani jump into a swimming pool.
This shows a lot of people and equipment and don't think Oshkosh gave any equipment to Yemen.
3 Saudi Military Brigades Destroyed in a Yemeni Offensive in Najran, Thousands Taken Prisoners. September 29, 2019
https://twitter.com/thoulfikar3ali
Not sure how to post the T*****r link seprately but the poor video shows lots of celebration and a pretty deceny sized convoy. but looking further down Bojo is suggesting Rouhani jump into a swimming pool.
I think that Prince Mohammad Bin Salman making a clear public statement about taking this to the UN is a tentative step in preparing the ground for that option
Not sure whether there is still the fawning interview Frank Gardner did with MBS a couple of years ago.
I think its more a case of him talking the talk so as not to lose too much face. I see no prospect them actually instigating such a venture - they'd much rather stand in the background and let the US or Israel take the lead on this, which I can't see happening anytime soon.
You clearly missed the report he gave after the Khashoggi murder - no holds barred there. I'm guessing Frank won't be invited back anytime soon. Your point is valid though - the BBC reporting on Saudi over the years has been pretty abysmal.
You clearly missed the report he gave after the Khashoggi murder - no holds barred there. I'm guessing Frank won't be invited back anytime soon. Your point is valid though - the BBC reporting on Saudi over the years has been pretty abysmal.
So hard to tell other places regulars are saying thats old footage like over 12 months. That said there is some floating around they believe might be from the latest one. They claim they captured 2000 yemeni and sudanize mercs, with over 200 + vehicles. Purported pictures show everything for toyota 4wd to mraps, lavs to to an M113 with a vulcan on it
Guess KSA may start to realise, just because you pay all that money to people to fight for the glory of KSA and die for it in som ****ty wasteland. The people concerned may look at it differently and think thanks for the cash but I want to see tomorrow. The ex Mil and Industry contractors I know who have spent time there had a pretty similar view to be fair.
I have no ability to read /speak but this apparently from the offensive you see the same burned out and overturned vehicles in some of the other footage
https://twitter.com/Sunkway_China/status/1178550389865512962
Apparently I cant post links yet, look for "