IS & Article 5
Biden was right about what?
Biden was right about what?
He had to apologise last week for saying it but think he made US position clear on it.
As it happened I flew from Stansted to Istanbul last night. There was a group of young British Asian men, complete with Jihadi beards; they passed though unquestioned in the UK (I was behind them when they checked in) but taken aside for detailed questioning (I suspect) o/a in Istanbul by a couple of English speaking chaps accompanying the Turkish Police. The British group had military-styled back-packs and were wearing boots. Subtle, eh?
I'm not sure I'd be comfortable supporting Turkey through article 5, they've not done much till recently to discourage the flow of Jihadis into Syria/Iraq and have been pretty happy for IS to keep the kurds pinned down.
A case of reaping what you sow IMO.
A case of reaping what you sow IMO.
As it happened I flew from Stansted to Istanbul last night. There was a group of young British Asian men, complete with Jihadi beards; they passed though unquestioned in the UK (I was behind them when they checked in) but taken aside for detailed questioning (I suspect) o/a in Istanbul by a couple of English speaking chaps accompanying the Turkish Police. The British group had military-styled back-packs and were wearing boots. Subtle, eh?
Bet GCHQ has already detailed files built on them and their friends, mobile phones etc etc
I'm not sure I'd be comfortable supporting Turkey through article 5, they've not done much till recently to discourage the flow of Jihadis into Syria/Iraq and have been pretty happy for IS to keep the kurds pinned down.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 57
Posts: 808
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The basic string pullers of ISIS are not stupid, they know what lines to not cross, that doesn't account for the lower down grunts commanders.
ISIS will not want Turkey involved, it will want to clean up an solidify its own little fiefdom. As such there will be significant goals it aims to acheive to provide it mid term gains to be sustainable.
ISIS will not want Turkey involved, it will want to clean up an solidify its own little fiefdom. As such there will be significant goals it aims to acheive to provide it mid term gains to be sustainable.
US already saying loss of Kobani not a big issue and now US and UK are saying about buffer zone in Syria and next it will be No Fly Zone and then next it will be NATO attacking Damascus.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 57
Posts: 808
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
next it will be NATO attacking Damascus
next it will be NATO attacking Damascus
Why - what is the rationale behind this?
Why - what is the rationale behind this?
By concentrating on Iraq now, with small numbers of strikes against a defined target set in Syria, it appears the powers that be are just trying to hold back ISIL enough to contain them whilst giving the 'moderate' (and if you believe that...) opposition the necessary space to regenerate their capability before looking west to Damascus. There are probably elements hoping that Turkey does get drawn in because that is realistically the only hope of an Article 5 declaration which would smooth many of the legal complexities with involvement in Syria.
And if I were a betting man, I'd say that Assad knows it's only a matter of time before the focus of strikes switches. The only way he has of securing his Regime long term now is to ensure the opposition aren't in any state to take power once he's gone - the lack of an alternative govt and the desire not to repeat Iraq 03 is probably uppermost in many minds.
What could be an amusing little diversion could be Assad's wife at least trying to hitch a ride back to the UK as I believe she is either a British citizen by birth or holds dual nationality!
Whether it's NATO or the Coalition, the aim has always been to remove Assad, at the moment the political will doesn't exist to do it though. At the moment Iraq is the strategic priority because it is an 'ally' that has requested assistance to defend a legitimate 'democracy', unlike Syria which is therefore legally more complex. And I suspect there is a sense of responsibility to get involved there too.
By concentrating on Iraq now, with small numbers of strikes against a defined target set in Syria, it appears the powers that be are just trying to hold back ISIL enough to contain them whilst giving the 'moderate' (and if you believe that...) opposition the necessary space to regenerate their capability before looking west to Damascus. There are probably elements hoping that Turkey does get drawn in because that is realistically the only hope of an Article 5 declaration which would smooth many of the legal complexities with involvement in Syria.
And if I were a betting man, I'd say that Assad knows it's only a matter of time before the focus of strikes switches. The only way he has of securing his Regime long term now is to ensure the opposition aren't in any state to take power once he's gone - the lack of an alternative govt and the desire not to repeat Iraq 03 is probably uppermost in many minds.
What could be an amusing little diversion could be Assad's wife at least trying to hitch a ride back to the UK as I believe she is either a British citizen by birth or holds dual nationality!
By concentrating on Iraq now, with small numbers of strikes against a defined target set in Syria, it appears the powers that be are just trying to hold back ISIL enough to contain them whilst giving the 'moderate' (and if you believe that...) opposition the necessary space to regenerate their capability before looking west to Damascus. There are probably elements hoping that Turkey does get drawn in because that is realistically the only hope of an Article 5 declaration which would smooth many of the legal complexities with involvement in Syria.
And if I were a betting man, I'd say that Assad knows it's only a matter of time before the focus of strikes switches. The only way he has of securing his Regime long term now is to ensure the opposition aren't in any state to take power once he's gone - the lack of an alternative govt and the desire not to repeat Iraq 03 is probably uppermost in many minds.
What could be an amusing little diversion could be Assad's wife at least trying to hitch a ride back to the UK as I believe she is either a British citizen by birth or holds dual nationality!
Turkey demanded 2 weeks ago that if people wished their involvement it would involve, safe areas in Syria, a NFZ and aim to remove Assad.
Now they have pretty much got what they wanted.
Assad has stood up to everything the West and GCC states have thrown at it and is still in power and is still popular.
The $500 Million Washington is pumping in will be used to bribe and cajole people like they attempted before but Syria knew what they were doing and sidelined pretty much everyone they targeted.
Sole aim is elimintaion of Assad and now they using ISIS as the key having failed with every other false flag.
Turkey has been the supply route for last 3 years of Men, Weapons and Food, that is no going to stop soon.
ISIS can be stopped by a blockade of weapons, men and fuel because look around and you will see the area they hold is not exactly a breadbasket. Same people backing ISIS are the ones backing the supposed moderates in Libya and look at that now.
Best option for West would be to tell Assad we support him, tell same to Baghdad and tell Turkey get in line or FO permanently and make friendly with Iran subject to a treaty the sign with Israel. Then tell Saudis and GCC to STFU or pick up every ISIS follwoer and set them loose in their countrys.
Yeah like any of that would happen sadly.
As it happened I flew from Stansted to Istanbul last night. There was a group of young British Asian men, complete with Jihadi beards; they passed though unquestioned in the UK (I was behind them when they checked in)
Join Date: Jun 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 144
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
We should do all that we can to facilitate the journey made by these young chaps from the UK to Syria and Iraq. Perhaps they'd care to take the rest of their ilk with them. Just don't let them come back.
Anyway, I struggle to see what the issue could be if these wretched people were to set up their brutal caliphate. Those who wished to live that way could stop being cuckoos in the European nest and flock to their 'heaven on earth'. Win-win surely?
Anyway, I struggle to see what the issue could be if these wretched people were to set up their brutal caliphate. Those who wished to live that way could stop being cuckoos in the European nest and flock to their 'heaven on earth'. Win-win surely?
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
Anyway, I struggle to see what the issue could be if these wretched people were to set up their brutal caliphate. Those who wished to live that way could stop being cuckoos in the European nest and flock to their 'heaven on earth'. Win-win surely?