IS & Article 5
 

With the IS about to take a town on the Turkish border, if they then cross in to Turkey, can the Turks then invoke Article 5 and force a bigger NATO response, including NATO boots on the ground? What will it say about NATO if some countries don't respond appropriately?

The head of NATO has already declared support for Turkey.
I think their would be some glum faces amongst the newer members if this didn't happen.


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As any ISIL incursion would be limited in nature compared with the intention when article 5 was approved, I think an initial NATO response would be to reinforce the border and perhaps enforce a buffer zone.

Remember that Syrian Air Force incursion was met with force but there was no further military response.

Does it count as invasion if ISIS are using tanks that Turkey supplied them with?

God what a mess..
Tyrant Assad attacked by Free Syrian Army and other groups after a popular uprising. NATO Turkey supports FSA, providing safe haven etc, as does Israel, providing medical assistance as well. Russia, Iran and our friends Iraq support Assad, as does Hezbolah. The UN accuses the FSA of War Crimes. IS wade in from the East like the Mongol hordes and fight FSA and Government forces alike. The US and her friendly Arab allies bomb IS in Syria, collaborating with the FSA along the way, but potentially supporting Assad as well. The tough little Kurds hold out in 'their' territory and fight off everyone who wants some.

The world has gone mad. I actually think we are probably better off waiting for IS to finish their Syrian press and then try and take on Turkey or Israel. The 'Coaltition' can play a secondary role (if the US is capable) while some real regional grunt takes the gloves off, suiting everyone.

IS have numbers, and weapons, and no doubt capable leadership and motivation. But they have been lucky as well, both the Iraqis and Syrian government forces are a shadow of their former selves. Up against very pissed off Turks or Israelis (or both) with US (possibly dont want the UN in on this one..) support, and they'll get smoked.

Why would ISIS bite the hands of Turkey that feeds and sustains them ?

I'd imagine the Turks are quite happy to be the anvil while the PKK get hammered.


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Because the 49 hostages was a one-off?
Because they are now being attacked by NATO anyway?
Because the guys they are not really attacking Turkey, but just "passing through"?

...and wot Tash said. The Kurds are effectively gaining sovereignty everywhere else, and Turkey would exterminate them given half a chance, and ISIS doing it for them is way more than half a chance. The SP guns Turkey sent probably already had PKK sites programmed in.....

Knowing the problems the Turks are having with the Kurds, and the casualties they have taken are still taking, I'd almost bet there are sighs of relief from the families of the conscripts now that the Kurds now have a different enemy on which to focus!

The can't force a bigger response, but they can invoke article V. There is still the "process" to go through in Brussels for any collective action, to include a silence procedure. Various foreign ministers will ask if this event actually constitutes an Article V situation.

That said, I think it would be good if the Turks ask for allied assistance and get it. Personal opinion, and I am surely biased. I used to work for a Turk in NATO, a man I have deep respect for.

It's all a maybe since IS haven't attacked Turkey. Before pondering that particular what-if, what is our strategy now? We're lambasting Qatar and Saudi for "funding terrorism" even though a few months ago we were praising them for doing more or less the same thing. We're told IS is the greatest threat we face. It's not long since we were on the point of fighting, if not actually on their side, certainly against their enemy. Israel have shot down a Syrian mig which was in the act of engaging IS...so is Israel now on IS's side?? What's the plan -is there one?

Plan is do as Qatar and Saudi's say because they have money.

Saudi's funding a $3 billion arms purchase by Lebannon from France.

Now we know why France is playing ball.

Ah Best Beloved, have you not heard the tale of the frog and the scorpion?

A scorpion was at the edge of a large body of water in the hot-and-sandy-sphere. (Insert Nile, Red Sea, Tigris, Euphrates or whatever).

He wants to get across the water, but cannot swim. He spies a Frog.

Scorpion: O Frog, I wish to cross to the other side, but cannot swim. You can, will you give me a lift to the other side?

Frog: Gerroff - you're a scorpion. You'll sting me and I'll die.

Scorpion: But if I sting you and you die, I will drown, for I cannot swim.

Frog: Seems reasonable - climb aboard.

So the scorpion climbs on the frog's back, and the frog starts swimming across the body of water. Halfway across, the scorpion stings the frog.

Frog: You fcukwit! What did you do that for? Now we'll both die!

Scorpion: My friend - this is the Middle East you know .............

The big issue wrt Turkey is not whether ISIL drop a few rounds on the wrong side of the border or whether they rampage through Kobane. In all likelihood, none of that will really get the Turks too worried. As far as they are concerned, the Kurdish problem is their main worry and the PKK are designated as a terrorist organisation, with the YPG, the main Kurdish faction getting clobbered in Kobane viewed by Ankara as an off shoot of the PKK.

There are only 2 things that might get them involved now:

1. Negative press in the international community for allowing the Kurds to fight on themselves without help - and even then, given their view of the Kurds this isn't guaranteed.

2. However, any attempt by ISIL to capture or destroy the Tomb of Sulyman Shah, which is a Turkish national monument and sovereign territory 20km inside Syria, and is considered near as you can get to sacred ground for the Turkish nation will result in Ankara getting very very very upset. So much so, that if you believe the press, they swapped out the ceremonial guard force with an SF detachment.

As much as it offends many western and humanitarian sensitivities, that Tomb, a symbol of Turkish history, is what you need to worry about wrt Turkey getting involved.

On these occasions, Turkey was able to deal with the matter and requested neither Art 4 or 5 assistance.

Wuh, quite. Is there any reason to suppose they would need help against ISIL yet?

Mind you, their tanks look impressive but under armoured.

A well armoured Leopard or an unarmoured M60; difficult choice.

PN,

They do have Leopards, but from the pics I've seen I think they've pushed mostly M48 / 60s up to the border.

They do have a far more modern MBT under development but only have a few at the moment. Eventually I think the aim is for something like 1000 or so IIRC - compare that to how many we have!

Snag is, NATO countries (European) polly's will pull the teeth from the NATO Council as easy as snapping your fingers. They'll leave it to Uncle Sam to do the dirty work.

Bigger snag is NATO members have widely varying ideas on what we're trying to achieve.

Sitting comfortably in my hotel room in Istanbul as I type maybe I can add to the discussion from the Turkish media side of things. My take is that Turkey is seriously posses off and will try to evoke article 5 if attacked. Joe Biden is getting a lot of bad press and so are the Kurds over last night's riots. My personal read is that there,s a line in the sand that can,t be crossed and the Government keep reminding everybody that they have the largest army in the region. Just a few of my thoughts for what they,'re worth.