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NEM consultation.

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Old 23rd Jun 2013, 08:27
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dkh51250
the number of RTAs and casualties that would result from encouraging even more SP to live outside the wire.
I'd love to know how they could possibly work this one out? They must roll some dice and make this statistic up.
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Old 23rd Jun 2013, 14:36
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As this is a cost cutting exercise are you seriously saying that they wouldn't remove the top layers from the pay increments? I'm positive that NEM will not be used to increase the pay bill.
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Old 24th Jun 2013, 07:22
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GR4 and DKH,

The study carried out by DASA at Ensleigh in late 2006 was initally looking at housing affordability around the post 2013 lay-down of RAF establishments. SP were banded into broad salary groups (airmen & JNCOs, SNCOs & WOs, JOs, SOs etc) and this was mapped against the detailed housing sales data for assumed house buying patterns (ie flat, 2 brm house, 3 brm house etc).

From this 'affordability plots' were developed and overlayed on the RAF disposition. At this point the study showed the considerable distance a lot of SP would need to travel to get to work, and one of the DASA statisticians (with brains the size of Jupiter) suggested testing the hypothesis that 'the longer the commute, the greater the number of RTAs'. The commuting distances were then normalised against RTA statistics ('hard and grim') for early and late rush-hour commutes (again, normalised for seasonal variation), and from that predictions of accidents, injuries and fatalities were abstracted.

All sorts of clever confidence intervals and bell curves were applied to the data and results, with the usual cavaets, but the study showed (again, using 2000-2005 housing affrodability data) that typically more junior personnel (again normalised on age and housing types) could only afford housing at considerably greater distances from bases than the middle and senior ranks. Of course, data such as this is site-specific and many SP by ex quarters etc but the general outcome was pretty surprising!

The study was done for SPP in Air Cmd as part of work for CAS's Strategy...but I left for AFG and have no idea what happened to it, as I have not returned to HWY and never likely to!

Last edited by Whenurhappy; 24th Jun 2013 at 07:55.
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