light_my_spey

What with all this sabre rattling which is quite clearly on the increase, excuse my ignorance but is North Korea actually a real threat?

michaelmedley

Over here in America they don't seem to be taking them seriously one bit. The understanding is that N Korea doesn't have the range to threaten mainland US so therefore they are not a threat.

Also I have heard NK doesn't have the technology in place to really advance so they will just intimidate SK to get a reaction.

Just what I have heard but I find it all very interesting as to who makes the next move

M

West Coast

Dangerous to whom?

To the mainland US, CW would suggest no. If you're based on a South Korean navy ship, most definitely.

Two's in

The real threat from North Korea is the American public don't take them seriously enough to warrant the increased spending on defence the sabre-rattlers are after. Now Afghanistan and Iraq are rapidly fading from the public's collective memory there needs to be a new bogeyman to get any real budget allocation. Thank goodness the American public aren't that easily taken in by all this.

Erwin Schroedinger

North Korea danger is rising and US ready for 'any eventuality'

North Korea danger is rising and US ready for 'any eventuality' | The Courier-Mail

Pontius Navigator

Two's In, yes you are probably right. A bogey man is needed to get funds released so that Rather than a hypothetical threat it seems Congress and Senate need a real threat. I seem to recall that the Backfire bomber provided a real 'air breathing' threat to the US when there was no modern Conus air defence system. Funds were provided for the F15.

At the time I read a series of reports on the Backfire with its range and capabilities progressively reduced which then removed the threat. Now there were lots of 'redundant' F15 which could now be deployed forward to Europe and Asia. I guess funding would never have been authorised at that scale if an accurate assessment had been available at the outset.

The real threat from Korea is one of creating regional instability, a region that is the man supplier of consumer goods to the rest of the world. Now I don't know how many products in the US have 'Made in China' on them but I was amazed to find that a lost-cost tourist economy, such as St Lucia, was selling tourist tat made in China.

ExGrunt

@LMS,

'Threat' has two components - 'capability' and 'intention'.

Capability: NK is a highly militarised state (in many ways similar to pre Great War Germany) but its conventional forces are at least a generation off the technology pace for the moment. So as set out above its reach is likely to be distinctly local. Nevertheless, it does appear to have an active nuclear programme which will only improve capability over time. Given the recent rocket (ahem: balistic missile) tests this must be considered a regional danger. As to asymetric attacks (ie an individual/small group with something nasty) I would say that they are quite capable.

Intention: This is where the real worry comes from, NK is led by an immature (in terms of international statesmanship) absolute ruler who has grown up the subject of a personality cult. That is a recipe for capricious and possibly irrational decision making.

Separately, geographically the region is a four way friction point between Russia, Japan, China and Korea. So rather like the Falkland Islands the whole thing has the potential to eurpt out of nowhere on a Friday afternoon when you are looking the other way.

I would just second the point above about the supply of goods, but say it is not just 'tat', but also important electronic components vital for computing/communication/telephone equipment.

EG

Kitbag

If this report from Aunty is to be believed the NK rocket force may not have the capability to damage much of ConUS (see graphic at bottom of report), but could readily destabilise regions in which the US is trying to increase its' own influence.

Pontius Navigator

ExGrunt - tourist tat in a low cost economy just as an illustration of the spread of Chinese goods right to the bottom of the market. Yes, find consumer electronics 'not-made-in-China'. I am not saying none, just most.

A French friend works in Philips in France. They still produce consumer electronics but essentially they are top end of the market products until production moves to Asia and they have to start with a new product range just to stand still.

Stuffy

If N Korea makes one EMP bomb. Then finds a way to let it off over the USA.

It then has become a terrible threat.

PRY: North Korea EMP attack could destroy U.S.

ExGrunt

@PN,

I think we agree, All I was trying to say was the region is really critical to modern life elsewhere. I know Philips very well and even the products manufactured in France will have significant components sourced from Korea/Taiwan.

All the best

EG

Lord Spandex Masher

I'm not sure a person made of rotting plant material is really necessary!

brickhistory

History doesn't really agree with this statement.

Nor do I agree with the rest of your post. It's all fine to ignore something or someone as "not a threat" until they are. Then the bleatings about "why weren't we prepared for this" are fairly loud.

I submit that anyone with a nuke is worthy of keeping an eye on. Anyone led as North Korea has been is worthy of focus.

And if it were to go south, no pun intended, guess who will get blamed?

Argentina is not really a threat given the state of its economy and armed forces. Yet not insubstantial forces are stationed there (the Falklands, or "Las Maldives" as the current POTUS calls 'em) and any utterance by the hag gets lots of attention. Why?


edited to specify the Falklands

Pontius Navigator

You haven't seen the palm leaf hats in the Caribbean?

hval

There was a sharp increase in movements detected at North Korea’s missile sites last night.

There are unconfirmed rumours that there is increased activity (Chinese troop movements) on the North Korea/ China border.

Agaricus bisporus

If the guy is as mad as he appears to be perhaps he actually wants to martyr his nation. It's not such an unusual concept in this world, is it?

And what do you suppose he'd order his subs to do if a nice juicy US carrier or other big warship appeared in its sights? Sinking one of those would give the USA a severe headache in terms of dealing a suitable response. I'd be plenty worried about those things if I were the D of D.

Can't nuke mainland US? Oh no? You don't need rockets, Hapag Lloyd will deliver it for you...Think asymmetric! There are plenty of ways.

If a guy as weird as this wants to make his name in history he's got the tools to do it and if he spouts off too far and risks losing face by backing down we might have a problem.

Fox3WheresMyBanana

Stuffy is right, a single EMP bomb is the real threat. NK dropping a ground burst nuke would mean immediate nuclear response. It is much harder, internationally, to retaliate against an EMP attack with a groundburst on Pyongyang as fallout would arrive elsewhere. Likewise, a retaliatory EMP attack is not practical as NK has f-all electronics anyway, is less dependent on them, and the strike would affect surrounding countries.
The problem is that the US has done little about protecting itself against EMP, or more importantly, doesn't have the ability to replace a burned out electrical grid.

Expect the same threat from Iran - who are approaching the rocket technology to put an EMP warhead over Europe. Once they get a nuke (or NK gives them one), they have a credible threat too.

lomapaseo

What's the US public got to do with this?

Are we expected to analyze the situation and discuss our miltary's strategy in front of the world?

Who other than North Korea wants us to start moving our families into bomb shelters?

Just when are we expected to launch our own nuclear capabilities? Should we clearly announce them now for a world wide vote ?

Yes, it's tough waiting for a provocatative move by the NK before deciding on a measured response whatever that tit-for-tat might be. But that's what we expect our military to absorb.

I expect as always that the chess moves will be made in secret and that we will only see the results. and second guess them afterwards in our history books.

air pig

Exactly, you can turn a container of machine tools into a container of anything you want, just need to change the paperwork a few times whilst on its journey and then its sailing under the Golden Gate bridge, the East River, Haifa or Tilbury and bang. No notice and no idea where its come from or from whom. Perfect for a false flag operation as well.

GreenKnight121

ExGrunt & Kitbag have the right of it.

Two's in... does it matter in any way what the opinion of the American people is?
Were Croatia & Serbia considered "a significant threat" by the people of the UK in January 1914?

Yet it was events there that ended in the deaths of just under a million British plus another quarter-million Empire citizens (about 10 million military deaths worldwide, with another 6 million deaths from war-related non-combat causes, including civilians) over the next 5 years, now wasn't it?