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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 3rd Jan 2021, 20:16
  #761 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fitliker View Post
Will the Carrier be allowed into Hong Kong for a port visit or will they be banned like other nations navies from spending money in the local economies ?
Are Russian or Chinese military ships allowed into US/UK ports to spend money in the local economies?
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Old 3rd Jan 2021, 22:36
  #762 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"USN sends a lone destroyer near one of ďtheir islandsĒ and the Chinese military along with their diplomatic corps go ape shit. U.K. sends a carrier battle group and the Chinese donít even take notice, nah, donít buy it."

that's because the "lone destroyer" is backed by the whole might of the USN and USA. A British CBG is much smaller that a US one, will have a dozen or so strike aircraft and represents about 50% of the whole UK navy.

Racedo is right here - it's politicians willy-waving and it would have the same outcome as 1941
And that is why there will be a shed-load of US Marines and their F-35Bs as part of the well-publicised package - Racedo right? YGTBSM!
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Old 3rd Jan 2021, 23:04
  #763 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tocsin View Post
And that is why there will be a shed-load of US Marines and their F-35Bs as part of the well-publicised package - Racedo right? YGTBSM!
Thank you for agreeing my point that RN require US Support to have the Chinese consider them as an issue.
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Old 4th Jan 2021, 05:32
  #764 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
I love your optimism, in reality they can just ignore, unless RN is part of a USN deployment then it really has zero impact.

The "we have a big aircraft carrier" has zero impact when people you are challenging make you aware that in the event of any conflict it will be "we had a big aircraft carrier",

The Prince of Wales and The Repulse on 7th of December 1941 supposedly were a big show of RN power in Asia, couple of days later both were on the bottom of the sea.
Well how about that, a lone Royal Navy ship exercising FONOPS sets off the Chinese. Far from your prediction theyíd ignore the lads.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1LM017




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Old 4th Jan 2021, 08:23
  #765 (permalink)  
 
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The Chinese are notoriously thin-skinned - they get bent out of shape about things that to us, seem totally trivial.

It doesn't change the fact that an small RN carrier group in the S China Sea would find it hard to survive if the balloon did go up
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Old 4th Jan 2021, 15:36
  #766 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
The Chinese are notoriously thin-skinned - they get bent out of shape about things that to us, seem totally trivial.

It doesn't change the fact that an small RN carrier group in the S China Sea would find it hard to survive if the balloon did go up
The question isn't survivability, it's whether the Chinese would give a damn. Clearly they do, this despite some posters thinking otherwise.

As to survivability, I'm no naval warfare expert and I suspect neither are you. What I do know is survival/effectiveness is tied to tactics and risk aversion. A CBG, be it the UK's or the USN isn't going to sail just offshore of China where it would incur a savage result. I suspect it would operate in the outer island regions where the full brunt of the Chinese military would have issues concentrating.
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Old 4th Jan 2021, 15:57
  #767 (permalink)  
 
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Of course they might just "welcome" them off Singapore and trail behind about 10 kms all the way round their deployment
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Old 4th Jan 2021, 18:57
  #768 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
Of course they might just "welcome" them off Singapore and trail behind about 10 kms all the way round their deployment

Stuff like that happens during peacetime FONOPS.
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Old 5th Jan 2021, 00:06
  #769 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
So do others have the resources and a willingness to trade. US economy is 16 times bigger than Australia and remove the Chinese trade surplus and Australia is in defecit



China touchy ? Think you need to look at all Govts as they are touchy.
I think you missed my point, that the decision to censor 'hate speech', however that may be defined, puts all speech within range of the government censor.
Once that is the norm, China will be well within her rights to request/require comments seen as harmful to China to be suppressed.
Of course, your point that all governments are just aching to apply similar strictures is quite correct. Freedom has no friends in Whitehall or in Congress or any government.
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Old 5th Jan 2021, 14:41
  #770 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
I think you missed my point, that the decision to censor 'hate speech', however that may be defined, puts all speech within range of the government censor.
Once that is the norm, China will be well within her rights to request/require comments seen as harmful to China to be suppressed.
Of course, your point that all governments are just aching to apply similar strictures is quite correct. Freedom has no friends in Whitehall or in Congress or any government.
etudiant,

I'm currently working in Whitehall, and I'm afraid, or rather happy, that you couldn't be more wrong!
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Old 5th Jan 2021, 15:37
  #771 (permalink)  
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China could go batty over this one.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55541501

Australian advert of man eating bat sandwich investigated

An advert that shows a man eating a bat sandwich is being investigated by Australia's advertising watchdog.

The ad from outdoor equipment firm Boating Camping Fishing store (BCF) has been viewed more than 250,000 times on YouTube. In it, a man jokes that the pandemic was caused by someone eating a bat....

Relations between Australia and China deteriorated last year to their lowest point in decades, experts say. The advert could see tensions becoming further strained.....


Last edited by ORAC; 5th Jan 2021 at 18:47.
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Old 5th Jan 2021, 18:09
  #772 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pr00ne View Post
etudiant,

I'm currently working in Whitehall, and I'm afraid, or rather happy, that you couldn't be more wrong!

But do the friends of freedom wield the leavers of power or are they the people who do the work ?
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Old 6th Jan 2021, 04:00
  #773 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
I love your optimism, in reality they can just ignore, unless RN is part of a USN deployment then it really has zero impact.

The "we have a big aircraft carrier" has zero impact when people you are challenging make you aware that in the event of any conflict it will be "we had a big aircraft carrier",

The Prince of Wales and The Repulse on 7th of December 1941 supposedly were a big show of RN power in Asia, couple of days later both were on the bottom of the sea.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/05/europ...mil/index.html

Seems the Chinese are more interested in the RN CBG than you believe.

Sorry MODs, know you donít like links, however it wouldnít have been believed if I hadnít added it. Iíll say 12 Hail Marys.
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Old 7th Jan 2021, 00:18
  #774 (permalink)  
 
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The Bible says that 'by their fruits you shall judge them'. By that standard there are very few friends of freedom in Whitehall afaik.
I'd be delighted to be corrected with specific examples.
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Old 7th Jan 2021, 10:15
  #775 (permalink)  
 
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West Coast, re China being worried about the RN CBG, there is probably a difference between "political annoyance" and "military fear". I suspect if you sailed a lone RN Minesweeper into the area there would be a protest! Over the last few decades, Beijing has quietly got on with weaving itself into many areas around the world such as Africa - completely ignored. Maybe they hoped to "get away with it" in a more open example of expansionism in the SCS.

I suspect they are more than a little annoyed that plan backfired and the spotlight has been turned on them rather than having much "military fear" - particularly of a small CBG as an entity. However, such a deployment demonstrates political resolve - and that's what China is annoyed about - it all adds to the US, Australia etc, in unison, shining a spotlight on China. I suspect they realize that, if the West took on China militarily, we'd be effectively looking at WW3.

"Cold War 2" anyone?
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Old 7th Jan 2021, 18:54
  #776 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
But do the friends of freedom wield the leavers of power or are they the people who do the work ?

Both in my, very recent, experience.
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Old 7th Jan 2021, 18:56
  #777 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
The Bible says that 'by their fruits you shall judge them'. By that standard there are very few friends of freedom in Whitehall afaik.
I'd be delighted to be corrected with specific examples.
Oh I disagree quite strongly, manifested by the life that I lead and the freedoms that I possess.

Go find your own specific examples.
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Old 10th Jan 2021, 12:50
  #778 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pr00ne View Post
Both in my, very recent, experience.
Interesting.
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Old 10th Jan 2021, 12:55
  #779 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast View Post

Seems the Chinese are more interested in the RN CBG than you believe.

Sorry MODs, know you donít like links, however it wouldnít have been believed if I hadnít added it. Iíll say 12 Hail Marys.
Let's see from home port deployment to SCS.......................... from original notice to arrival minimum 35 days, yup lets be worried.
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Old 10th Jan 2021, 18:41
  #780 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Let's see from home port deployment to SCS.......................... from original notice to arrival minimum 35 days, yup lets be worried.
Once theyíre there....

Employed correctly, the CBG is a potent tool.
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