UK Strategic Defence Review 2015?

[gijoe]

'While I'm on Clausewitz it's pretty obvious that "selection and maintenance of the aim" was not performed in either TELIC or HERRICK. I'm pretty convinced that senior Army leaders, rather than politicians, were to blame in both instances. Their intention was undoubtedly to carve out a role for a larger proportion of the Army than had been involved in the initial stages of both operations; the end result was perceived failure and the need for large numbers of regular (as opposed to SF) troops being questioned, making them an easy target in SDSR 2010 cuts. The law of unintended consequences... '

Easy,

Have you been to either?

And I don't mean to the crewrooms, I mean downtown.

G

[Squirrel 41]

What was more interesting than the comments from (Sir) Nick Harvey was the implication from Danny Alexander that the 2013 Spending Review has been binned, and that the Coalition (in practice Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander) will agree £16bn in cuts/tax rises for the 2015-16 financial year, leaving the next Government a free hand to have a crash Spending Review in late 2015 before the next SDSR.

This at least means how much*/little* cash there will be when the SDSR process starts....

S41


*Delete as appropriate

[Easy Street]

Have you been to either?

And I don't mean to the crewrooms, I mean downtown

Yes and yes. I stand by my comments, which are based on nearly 11 years' participation in the GWOT in both theatres. Initially very exciting and successful, but since then quite tedious, dangerous and lacking in direction.

[dalek]

Sunday Express reports that the Army Air Crops is too be disbanded? Ever heard of them?
Seriously though, who are going to run the Apache fleet?

[SASless]

There comes a point where the force structure is too small to be able to even "defend" the UK proper much less its out lying interests. At that point....all you need is a Ceremonial Guard and be done with it. Perhaps the Royal Family should contract out those duties to a private contractor and provide the Army with more operational troops at small cost. to the taxpayer.

[brickhistory]

It's gonna get interesting for the UK, among others, as the U.S. continues to discover that it is broke and can't afford the big umbrella - strategic and conventional - anymore.

Western Europe will either cough up more, or more likely, decide that there's no threat for the next ten years or so. (now where did I read about that in the history books?).

Likewise, Japan and South Korea will no doubt feel a draft as the skirts are shortened in that part of the world as well.

[SASless]

Have we ever been attacked because we were too strong.....or has it always been when seen as being vulnerable for some reason?

[Could be the last?]

Figure 1.1 – The components of fighting power
121. Ultimately, both the moral and conceptual components depend on the quality of people. Given the resource constraints on the physical component, these are the only areas where we can realistically aspire to create a military edge beyond 2020. However, changes in terms and conditions of service, reduced force structure and redundancies have arguably eroded this potential advantage. Assuring it in the future will depend on sufficient priority being given to an effective recruitment, retention and retirement policy within a very taut budget. Also, a continuing commitment to world-class military education, not just specialist training, will be necessary for the relatively few personnel identified as key to the delivery of the conceptual component of fighting power.

Interesting comments!

[Bastardeux]

I almost suspect that Camerons recent statement is a play at statesmanship.

Bingo! The fact is that no-one knows what the economy is going to be like next month, never mind in 3 years' time. The likely scenario, confirmed by lots of rumblings round the ECB, is that the Euro saga will be coming to the end of the tunnel over the next year or so. Add to that the fact that inflation is likely to be very low and private debt much, much lower and you begin to realise that the doom and gloom is over-stated.

My predicition is the promised increase in spending + a very moderate amount to cover things like MPA. I don't see the NHS getting increases in 2016, like it has at the moment, which leaves a little bit of room for maneuvre for the likes of Education, transport, defence etc. The government have already made it clear that the extra cuts are coming from welfare.

Of course if Labour get elected then we all need to start looking for jobs!