Syria starts
Evertonian
Slight thread drift but interesting view from a retired Saudi Commodore in The Times on line today.
Nah - The Wicked Witch will be along with her mates to call him an "intifada denier" or some such nonsense.
They will then demand a public show trial or at very least demand that he issues an apology for suggesting that the Red Sea Pedestrians are not an evil neo-imperialist theocracy........
They will then demand a public show trial or at very least demand that he issues an apology for suggesting that the Red Sea Pedestrians are not an evil neo-imperialist theocracy........
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
A storm of massive proportions is brewing in the MidEast
The region is splitting apart and ready to explode out of its largely artificial boundaries along two major fault lines, ethnic and religious, writes a former senior editor of the Jerusalem Post
..............Today, the Middle East is standing on the edge of an internecine eruption that is likely to sweep away the existing order and radically alter the regional order, with far-reaching strategic implications for the West.
The region is splitting apart and ready to explode out of its largely artificial boundaries along two major fault lines, ethnic and religious. These emerged most prominently after the toppling of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 2003. The ethnic divide is between Sunni and Shia Muslims; the religious divide is between the Islamic extremist Wahhabi and the even-more-extremist Salafi movements. The differences are not merely ideological, they are existential. The conflicts are likely to involve the major regional players: Sunni Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey; Shia Iran, and, richest of all, pro-Salafi Qatar, where annual GDP is running at more than $100,000 per person. Jihadist movements like al-Qaeda will no doubt muscle in on the anarchy in an attempt to gain new adherents.
Just as world trade has become globalised, so too has Islamic violence. Such conflicts are unlikely to be contained within the Middle East and will quickly spread to other Islamic states in Asia (principally Pakistan, Indonesia and Malaysia) and Africa (primarily the Maghreb states of Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Libya, but also sub-Saharan states with significant Muslim populations, like Nigeria). Nor are they likely to involve large-scale, set-piece battles between states with armies or tanks (though these will, as in Syria, be deployed against the “rebels”). Rather, they will involve the sort of insurgency that devastated Iraq, complete with human, car and truck bombs, inter-communal, inter-ethnic and inter-tribal clashes, all resulting in significant population movements to meet the ever-insistent demands of the ethnic cleansers.
Under these strains, allegiances will fray and law-enforcement agencies – the army, police and intelligence services – will fragment. Ultimately, bureaucracies and political leaderships will disintegrate. We’ve seen the movie before. But what we have seen is a work in progress. So far, no one has witnessed the final scenes. Nobody is predicting the outcome; the only certainty is that the end-game is totally uncertain. The conflict will be protracted, uncontrollable and unresponsive to Western diplomacy, however tough or nuanced. There will be no men in white hats and black hats. Only bad guys and worse guys.
That, according to my source, is the bleak outlook for his region. But political instability in the Middle East also plays into the domestic political agenda of Europe and the West in general. For the West – indeed, for the industrialised world – the nightmare is only just beginning. Two sources of grief are likely to be high on the agenda of any insurgency.
The first is the closing of what are known in the shipping business as "chokepoints" through which energy and trade must navigate. In the Middle East, these are primarily the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal.
The second is an attack on Saudi Arabia’s riches by secessionist Shia, who form the dominant group in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia, which is home to the oilfields (the Saudi Shia can expect assistance from Shia across the border in Iraq’s matching oil-rich region)....................
The region is splitting apart and ready to explode out of its largely artificial boundaries along two major fault lines, ethnic and religious, writes a former senior editor of the Jerusalem Post
..............Today, the Middle East is standing on the edge of an internecine eruption that is likely to sweep away the existing order and radically alter the regional order, with far-reaching strategic implications for the West.
The region is splitting apart and ready to explode out of its largely artificial boundaries along two major fault lines, ethnic and religious. These emerged most prominently after the toppling of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 2003. The ethnic divide is between Sunni and Shia Muslims; the religious divide is between the Islamic extremist Wahhabi and the even-more-extremist Salafi movements. The differences are not merely ideological, they are existential. The conflicts are likely to involve the major regional players: Sunni Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey; Shia Iran, and, richest of all, pro-Salafi Qatar, where annual GDP is running at more than $100,000 per person. Jihadist movements like al-Qaeda will no doubt muscle in on the anarchy in an attempt to gain new adherents.
Just as world trade has become globalised, so too has Islamic violence. Such conflicts are unlikely to be contained within the Middle East and will quickly spread to other Islamic states in Asia (principally Pakistan, Indonesia and Malaysia) and Africa (primarily the Maghreb states of Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Libya, but also sub-Saharan states with significant Muslim populations, like Nigeria). Nor are they likely to involve large-scale, set-piece battles between states with armies or tanks (though these will, as in Syria, be deployed against the “rebels”). Rather, they will involve the sort of insurgency that devastated Iraq, complete with human, car and truck bombs, inter-communal, inter-ethnic and inter-tribal clashes, all resulting in significant population movements to meet the ever-insistent demands of the ethnic cleansers.
Under these strains, allegiances will fray and law-enforcement agencies – the army, police and intelligence services – will fragment. Ultimately, bureaucracies and political leaderships will disintegrate. We’ve seen the movie before. But what we have seen is a work in progress. So far, no one has witnessed the final scenes. Nobody is predicting the outcome; the only certainty is that the end-game is totally uncertain. The conflict will be protracted, uncontrollable and unresponsive to Western diplomacy, however tough or nuanced. There will be no men in white hats and black hats. Only bad guys and worse guys.
That, according to my source, is the bleak outlook for his region. But political instability in the Middle East also plays into the domestic political agenda of Europe and the West in general. For the West – indeed, for the industrialised world – the nightmare is only just beginning. Two sources of grief are likely to be high on the agenda of any insurgency.
The first is the closing of what are known in the shipping business as "chokepoints" through which energy and trade must navigate. In the Middle East, these are primarily the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal.
The second is an attack on Saudi Arabia’s riches by secessionist Shia, who form the dominant group in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia, which is home to the oilfields (the Saudi Shia can expect assistance from Shia across the border in Iraq’s matching oil-rich region)....................
Last edited by ORAC; 11th Oct 2012 at 14:05.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Fears Turkey-Syria conflict could escalate as tanks are sent to border in warning to Assad
TURKISH forces were put on yellow alert after Syria bombarded towns in the north resulting in warships being positions along the Mediterranean coast.
WARSHIPS and hundreds of battle tanks rushed to protect Turkey’s southern border yesterday as civil war threatened to spread beyond Syria. As Turkish naval destroyers patrolled the Mediterranean coast, an armoured brigade of tanks dug in along the 560-mile flashpoint Turkey-Syria border.
The military escalation came as Turkey warned it will smash President Assad’s forces if they bombard towns north of their boundary one more time. Turkish forces were on “yellow alert” just one step down from a red alert for all-out warfare – as Syrian refugees fled across the border and locals left the region.
As preparations for war were ordered by Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the UN was reeling from his accusations they failed to act against Syria.
Turkish artillery has hit back a dozen times in the past two weeks, killing 12 Syrian soldiers, but fears are growing that fresh cross-border shelling will lead to war. If that happens NATO – and therefore Britain – could be sucked into conflict against Syria, which is supported by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
In the Turkish border town of Akcakale, where two women and three children were killed by a Syrian mortar attack just days ago, tension was growing. Troops were digging in artillery positions and just outside the town, the army were excavating huge pits to hide deadly T-155 Firtina-Storm howitzers.
Many locals have already fled but some have nowhere to go. Emina Atsiz, 80, wept at the bombed ruins of a neighbour’s house. She said: “I stay outside because I am frightened of another bomb. We will be swallowed up by war if nobody helps us.”
Syrian refugee Mah Shay Mohammed, 28, was shot by Assad’s troops in Aleppo about 100 miles away. He said: “Assad cannot last without support. I am worried the war could spread here too unless the rest of the world steps in.”
TURKISH forces were put on yellow alert after Syria bombarded towns in the north resulting in warships being positions along the Mediterranean coast.
WARSHIPS and hundreds of battle tanks rushed to protect Turkey’s southern border yesterday as civil war threatened to spread beyond Syria. As Turkish naval destroyers patrolled the Mediterranean coast, an armoured brigade of tanks dug in along the 560-mile flashpoint Turkey-Syria border.
The military escalation came as Turkey warned it will smash President Assad’s forces if they bombard towns north of their boundary one more time. Turkish forces were on “yellow alert” just one step down from a red alert for all-out warfare – as Syrian refugees fled across the border and locals left the region.
As preparations for war were ordered by Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the UN was reeling from his accusations they failed to act against Syria.
Turkish artillery has hit back a dozen times in the past two weeks, killing 12 Syrian soldiers, but fears are growing that fresh cross-border shelling will lead to war. If that happens NATO – and therefore Britain – could be sucked into conflict against Syria, which is supported by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
In the Turkish border town of Akcakale, where two women and three children were killed by a Syrian mortar attack just days ago, tension was growing. Troops were digging in artillery positions and just outside the town, the army were excavating huge pits to hide deadly T-155 Firtina-Storm howitzers.
Many locals have already fled but some have nowhere to go. Emina Atsiz, 80, wept at the bombed ruins of a neighbour’s house. She said: “I stay outside because I am frightened of another bomb. We will be swallowed up by war if nobody helps us.”
Syrian refugee Mah Shay Mohammed, 28, was shot by Assad’s troops in Aleppo about 100 miles away. He said: “Assad cannot last without support. I am worried the war could spread here too unless the rest of the world steps in.”
Perhaps the Turks are about to get a little payback on some Arab groups who tossed them out, with some help from the Brits et al, in about 1916-1918.
I also think that they are about to remind said Arabs that they are better at this war thing.
Looks to be quite interesting.
I think I'll open up a body bag business on the side. The market seems to be expanding.
I also think that they are about to remind said Arabs that they are better at this war thing.
Looks to be quite interesting.
I think I'll open up a body bag business on the side. The market seems to be expanding.
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For months, the U.S. has been helping Arab allies coordinate arms shipments to rebel fighters in Syria. Unfortunately, most of those weapons are going to radical Islamists instead of secular opposition groups. According to a classified government report uncovered by The New York Times reporter David Sanger, the flood of Saudi and Qatari weapons into Syria is strengthening the hand of extremist groups in the country, including those with ties to Al Qaeda. “The opposition groups that are receiving the most of the lethal aid are exactly the ones we don’t want to have it,” a U.S. official says.
Looks as though Syria will go the way of Libya and Egypt. We are in the process of losing the Middle East.
Bob C
Looks as though Syria will go the way of Libya and Egypt. We are in the process of losing the Middle East.
Bob C
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
National Review: Erdogan and Assad at War
The Turkish prime minister’s ambitions are driving his country closer to conflict.
.............A decade of success went to Erdogan’s head, tempting him into a Syrian misadventure that could undermine his popularity. He might yet learn from his mistakes and backtrack, but for now the padishah of Ankara is doubling down on his jihad against the Assad regime, driving hard for its collapse and his salvation.
To answer my opening question: Turkish bellicosity results primarily from one man’s ambition and ego. Western states should stay completely away and let him be hoist with his own petard.
The Turkish prime minister’s ambitions are driving his country closer to conflict.
.............A decade of success went to Erdogan’s head, tempting him into a Syrian misadventure that could undermine his popularity. He might yet learn from his mistakes and backtrack, but for now the padishah of Ankara is doubling down on his jihad against the Assad regime, driving hard for its collapse and his salvation.
To answer my opening question: Turkish bellicosity results primarily from one man’s ambition and ego. Western states should stay completely away and let him be hoist with his own petard.
Two points in response to Robert Cooper
1. You can't spend what you ain't got, can't lose what you never had. (Lyrics from an Allman Brother's tune that seem apropos).
2. Who the heck is "we" in this case?
ORAC: thanks for the link. Comments anon ...
EDITED LATER:
Pipes is reasonably up to speed on that region, but he spins a certain direction. I'd take his predictions with a grain of salt ... see his alarmist article (linked within the article you provided) on the autumn 1998 Syria-Turkey tensions.
That said, the Turks have in the past two years let their rapport with Israel fade, and have been doing a bit of chest thumping to show that they are a local Power not to be trifled with.
An interesting (Sunni) counterpoint to Iran (Shia), don't you think? Two old empires finding their feet again ... a development that suggests to me that more blood will flow. Empires seem to thrive on blood and iron.
We are in the process of losing the Middle East.
2. Who the heck is "we" in this case?
ORAC: thanks for the link. Comments anon ...
EDITED LATER:
Pipes is reasonably up to speed on that region, but he spins a certain direction. I'd take his predictions with a grain of salt ... see his alarmist article (linked within the article you provided) on the autumn 1998 Syria-Turkey tensions.
That said, the Turks have in the past two years let their rapport with Israel fade, and have been doing a bit of chest thumping to show that they are a local Power not to be trifled with.
An interesting (Sunni) counterpoint to Iran (Shia), don't you think? Two old empires finding their feet again ... a development that suggests to me that more blood will flow. Empires seem to thrive on blood and iron.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 16th Oct 2012 at 14:02.
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Lonewolf,
The point I was making was that the diplomatic and political influence of the US and UK in the Middle East is diminishing rapidly as fundamental Islam takes over piece by piece.
Post 105 above by ORAC is spot on.
Bob C
The point I was making was that the diplomatic and political influence of the US and UK in the Middle East is diminishing rapidly as fundamental Islam takes over piece by piece.
Post 105 above by ORAC is spot on.
Bob C
Robert, one of the few constant things in this world is change. Change isn't always for "the better" depending upon where you sit, but you can count on things to change.
Pardon me if I don't get all bent out of shape over this latest flux in the status quo. Whether or not "our" influence is needed at level "X" in order to achieve various national goals and aims is a matter of considerable difference in opinion.
For the folks who live in the region's various countries, the decrease of foreign involvement, entanglement, and influence is most probably seen as beneficial. What may be most troubling, at least within the region, is the possibility that even if US or UK involvement is on the wane, Iranian involvement and influence may be waxing.
The Persians are foreigners as well, to most of those in the Levant.
Pardon me if I don't get all bent out of shape over this latest flux in the status quo. Whether or not "our" influence is needed at level "X" in order to achieve various national goals and aims is a matter of considerable difference in opinion.
For the folks who live in the region's various countries, the decrease of foreign involvement, entanglement, and influence is most probably seen as beneficial. What may be most troubling, at least within the region, is the possibility that even if US or UK involvement is on the wane, Iranian involvement and influence may be waxing.
The Persians are foreigners as well, to most of those in the Levant.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 17th Oct 2012 at 13:08.
Thanks for the opinion piece, with an eye toward this opinion writer being a bit of a pro Israel Turk (if he is indeed a Turk).
Not sure how representative that opinion piece is of "the street" but it was a fun read anyway.
Thanks!
I liked these two tidbits the best:
That got a modest grin out of me.
Politicians typically toss in a few facts amongst the usual crapola in order to shore up possible credibility. Not a trick unique to Turks. 
Not sure how representative that opinion piece is of "the street" but it was a fun read anyway.
Thanks!
I liked these two tidbits the best:
... Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu keeps on saying that “[on Syria] Turkey has acted in line with the international community,” without specifying who the “international community” really is. We understand that nearly 3.5 billion Russians, Chinese, Indians, Iranians and Brazilians don’t count as the “international community.”
... there is another aspect to how the colorful Turkish rhetoric in justifying the passionate “let’s bomb Damascus wish” fails to impress even most pro-government Turks.
After the eighth mortar fell onto Turkish territory and killed five innocent Turks, the prime minister made it clear that this could not be an accident: “You don’t make a mistake eight times.”
He was right, but only selectively.
After the eighth mortar fell onto Turkish territory and killed five innocent Turks, the prime minister made it clear that this could not be an accident: “You don’t make a mistake eight times.”
He was right, but only selectively.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 17th Oct 2012 at 14:55.
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"The point I was making was that the diplomatic and political influence of the US and UK in the Middle East is diminishing rapidly as fundamental Islam takes over piece by piece"
and there was silly old me thinking it all went south when we invaded Egypt in '56 and the Yanks backed the Israelis through the '60's
and there was silly old me thinking it all went south when we invaded Egypt in '56 and the Yanks backed the Israelis through the '60's