Bahrain, Saudi Arabia & Iran
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Grauniad: Saudi Arabian forces prepare to enter Bahrain after day of clashes
Crown Prince of Bahrain expected to invite Saudi support following anti-government demonstrations in capital
Crown Prince of Bahrain expected to invite Saudi support following anti-government demonstrations in capital
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Foreign & Commonwealth Office: Bahrain - Travel Summary:
We advise against all travel to Bahrain until further notice.
Following an increase in protests over recent days, confrontations between protestors and police on Sunday 13th March, reports of protestors establishing roadblocks, and reports that the Bahraini Government has invited fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to deploy forces to help them preserve law and order, we also advise British nationals currently in Bahrain to remain at home until further notice. The risk of a further outbreak of violence has increased.
If British nationals do travel within Bahrain, they should maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places and on major highways, and avoid large crowds and demonstrations. The airport remains open and transiting through the airport is unaffected by this advice.
We advise against all travel to Bahrain until further notice.
Following an increase in protests over recent days, confrontations between protestors and police on Sunday 13th March, reports of protestors establishing roadblocks, and reports that the Bahraini Government has invited fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to deploy forces to help them preserve law and order, we also advise British nationals currently in Bahrain to remain at home until further notice. The risk of a further outbreak of violence has increased.
If British nationals do travel within Bahrain, they should maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places and on major highways, and avoid large crowds and demonstrations. The airport remains open and transiting through the airport is unaffected by this advice.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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BBC: Gulf states send force to Bahrain following protests
Troops from a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have arrived in Bahrain in response to a request from the small Gulf kingdom, officials say.
Troops from a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have arrived in Bahrain in response to a request from the small Gulf kingdom, officials say.
It comes a day after the worst violence since seven anti-government protesters were killed in clashes with security forces last month. Dozens of people were injured on Sunday as protesters pushed back police and barricaded roads.
Bahrain's opposition said the foreign troops amounted to an occupation.
A Saudi official said about 1,000 Saudi Arabian troops arrived in Bahrain early on Monday.
The troops are part of a Gulf Cooperation Council deployment, a six-nation regional grouping which includes Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.....
Troops from a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have arrived in Bahrain in response to a request from the small Gulf kingdom, officials say.
Troops from a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have arrived in Bahrain in response to a request from the small Gulf kingdom, officials say.
It comes a day after the worst violence since seven anti-government protesters were killed in clashes with security forces last month. Dozens of people were injured on Sunday as protesters pushed back police and barricaded roads.
Bahrain's opposition said the foreign troops amounted to an occupation.
A Saudi official said about 1,000 Saudi Arabian troops arrived in Bahrain early on Monday.
The troops are part of a Gulf Cooperation Council deployment, a six-nation regional grouping which includes Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.....
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As long as you understand, Dead Pan, that the troubles in Bahrain should not be seen to be a natural follow on, or in any way similar to, troubles in other parts of the Middle East. As has already been explained, Iran claim Bahrain as their own and have been stirring up trouble there for years, the very last thing Saudi, or any of the Gulf states want is an Iranian presence on that side of the Gulf. By brining in the forces of the GCC, plus the existing presence in Bahrain of the American 5th Fleet, a timely message is being sent to Iran to butt out.
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where are we if Mr Dinner Jacket decides to follow Dave and declare a no fly zone to protect the rebels against a cruel government
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Stratfor Report on Irans Probable Intentions
Something I have eluded to previously is the influence of Iran and the intentions of Iran in Middle Eastern and global politics.
The following link ( Please Click Here )provides an interesting and relevant insight. I would recommend a perusal.
Iran, militarily are better than all the other Middle eastern forces excepting Israel - and they know how to fight (my opinion). Iran have massive Shiite support throughout the Middle East. Read the report. It is well worth it.
The following link ( Please Click Here )provides an interesting and relevant insight. I would recommend a perusal.
Iran, militarily are better than all the other Middle eastern forces excepting Israel - and they know how to fight (my opinion). Iran have massive Shiite support throughout the Middle East. Read the report. It is well worth it.
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While I would concede Iran has proven quite adept at clubbing and torturing its own people, their military and command and control have never been tested against a force of stature.
Who knows how they will fight, or who will internally turn against the regime when the shooting starts?
Should they come up against a committed US force, and assuming nuclear weapons are not used, they would quickly find themselves made mincemeat of, I've no doubt of that.
Who knows how they will fight, or who will internally turn against the regime when the shooting starts?
Should they come up against a committed US force, and assuming nuclear weapons are not used, they would quickly find themselves made mincemeat of, I've no doubt of that.
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against a cruel government
If the tactics used in the Iran/Iraq war of the eighties are anything to go by Iran don't have a lot going for them, militarily.
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@ BandAide,
You have a point there. It is why I wrote "Middle eastern forces". Having said that, how would the US get back in to the middle East if it is under the control of Iran (either directly, or indirectly)? Now that may be a physical present, or a political presence.
If Iran do gain control of the Middle East, they then have us by the thingies - particularly now the UK have upset that nice Mr Qaddafi who used to provide the UK with much of it's oil. We really do not want to be dependant on Russia for our oil & gas, so that also gives problems; and yes I am aware that the UK have increased the amount of gas purchased fra Norway.
I was going to waffle on some more, but the article explains a lot of what I was going to write. I will write the following though..... Clausewitz & Sun Tzu both understood that "war" may be carried out by political means, and is generally preferable to "outright war" (particularly when you use a nations own populace against themselves). Ahmadinejad appears to have grasped this principle admirably.
Should they come up against a committed US force, and assuming nuclear weapons are not used, they would quickly find themselves made mincemeat of, I've no doubt of that.
If Iran do gain control of the Middle East, they then have us by the thingies - particularly now the UK have upset that nice Mr Qaddafi who used to provide the UK with much of it's oil. We really do not want to be dependant on Russia for our oil & gas, so that also gives problems; and yes I am aware that the UK have increased the amount of gas purchased fra Norway.
I was going to waffle on some more, but the article explains a lot of what I was going to write. I will write the following though..... Clausewitz & Sun Tzu both understood that "war" may be carried out by political means, and is generally preferable to "outright war" (particularly when you use a nations own populace against themselves). Ahmadinejad appears to have grasped this principle admirably.
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The oil's going to flow regardless of who controls it.
The more immediate concern is that of the Middle East. How do they ensure continuing US interest in maintaining order there?
The Obama administration isn't interested in more commitments as Libya has shown, and Americans left and right are increasingly turning inward, finally recognizing the enormous problems in their own house need to be addressed.
The US doesn't depend on Middle East oil, but Europe does. Therefore, the Middle East is Europe's problem in the future, as Sarkozy and Cameron have recognized.
how would the US get back in to the middle East if it is under the control of Iran
The Obama administration isn't interested in more commitments as Libya has shown, and Americans left and right are increasingly turning inward, finally recognizing the enormous problems in their own house need to be addressed.
The US doesn't depend on Middle East oil, but Europe does. Therefore, the Middle East is Europe's problem in the future, as Sarkozy and Cameron have recognized.
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If the Middle East goes pear shaped for the US and they lose commercial access to oil, watch the US tree hugger resistance to developing the Alaskan oilfields be ignored poste haste.
After the first winter without oil, I suspect even the tree huggers' protests about endangering the habitat of the Alaskan three-eyed spotted seal will be somewhat muted.
I suppose the Iranians will still get some income from the Indians and the Chinese, but the big question will be: will it be enough income to keep their coffers filled to the level they'll require to maintain their cash flow at the level they'll require?
One thing you can guarantee: whichever way it goes, the *** Frogs will be in there making money at every turn.
After the first winter without oil, I suspect even the tree huggers' protests about endangering the habitat of the Alaskan three-eyed spotted seal will be somewhat muted.
I suppose the Iranians will still get some income from the Indians and the Chinese, but the big question will be: will it be enough income to keep their coffers filled to the level they'll require to maintain their cash flow at the level they'll require?
One thing you can guarantee: whichever way it goes, the *** Frogs will be in there making money at every turn.
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that nice Mr Qaddafi who used to provide the UK with much of it's oil
Therefore, the Middle East is Europe's problem in the future, as Sarkozy and Cameron have recognized.
Whilst America may not be a major user of ME oil, they do have significant economic and strategic interests in the region. You can bet they will take an interest if the unrest spreads to the Shia populations in Saudi and Iraq.
Re Iran's involvement, Armoured Dinner Jacket is doing all he can to deflect attention from problems at home. No news on those two Iranian warships which transitted the Suez a few weeks back, just ahead of the Enterprise strike group?
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More than 85% of Libyan oil exports go to Europe. The rest go to Asia, Australia and the US.
And rearranged in order of dependence: (barrels = barrels per day)
Ireland - 14,000 barrels (23% of all oil imports)
Italy - 376,000 barrels (22% of all oil imports)
Austria - 31,000 barrels (21% of all oil imports)
Switzerland - 17,000 barrels (19% of all oil imports)
France - 205,000 barrels (16% of all oil imports)
Greece - 63,000 barrels (15% of all oil imports)
Spain - 136,000 barrels (12% of all oil imports)
Portugal - 27,000 barrels (11% of all oil imports)
UK - 95,000 barrels (9% of all oil imports)
Germany - 144,000 barrels (8% of all oil imports)
China - 150,000 barrels (3% of all oil imports)
Netherlands - 31,000 barrels (2% of all oil imports)
Australia - 11,000 barrels (2% of all oil imports)
USA - 51,000 barrels (0.5% of all oil imports)
And rearranged in order of dependence: (barrels = barrels per day)
Ireland - 14,000 barrels (23% of all oil imports)
Italy - 376,000 barrels (22% of all oil imports)
Austria - 31,000 barrels (21% of all oil imports)
Switzerland - 17,000 barrels (19% of all oil imports)
France - 205,000 barrels (16% of all oil imports)
Greece - 63,000 barrels (15% of all oil imports)
Spain - 136,000 barrels (12% of all oil imports)
Portugal - 27,000 barrels (11% of all oil imports)
UK - 95,000 barrels (9% of all oil imports)
Germany - 144,000 barrels (8% of all oil imports)
China - 150,000 barrels (3% of all oil imports)
Netherlands - 31,000 barrels (2% of all oil imports)
Australia - 11,000 barrels (2% of all oil imports)
USA - 51,000 barrels (0.5% of all oil imports)
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Taken in isolation the above figures don't mean a lot and don't really reflect any sort of dependence.
You need to factor in how much each country imports as a part of its overall consumption.
For example, consider the UK, 9 percent of not a lot, is ....not a lot.
I don't know the latest figures, but in 2005 half our oil was self produced.
As to Quaddifi supplying most of our oil...that's just nonsense.
You need to factor in how much each country imports as a part of its overall consumption.
For example, consider the UK, 9 percent of not a lot, is ....not a lot.
I don't know the latest figures, but in 2005 half our oil was self produced.
As to Quaddifi supplying most of our oil...that's just nonsense.
