Bahrain, Saudi Arabia & Iran
 

Torygraph: All eyes on Bahrain as Gulf tremors frighten oil markets

Oil analysts are paying very close attention to fast-moving events in Bahrain, fearing that clashes between the island’s Sunni elite and an aggrieved Shi’ite majority could embroil the two Gulf giants of Iran and Saudi Arabia.

"While events in Libya are undoubtedly of prime importance, they are a red herring for the oil market," said Helima Croft from Barclays Capital. "We believe the unrest in Bahrain may be of far greater importance to the strategic balance in the Middle East and to the oil market." The risk group Exclusive Analysis said there is a "moderate risk of an extremely violent transition" in Bahrain, the linchpin of stability in the Gulf and host to the US 5th Fleet. "There is a significant probability that the present order is completely overthrown and replaced by a new order aligned with Iran," it said.

Marchers from Bahrain’s Shi’ite community, 70pc of the Island’s 800,000 population, poured into Manama’s Lulu square on Tuesday in another day of civic protest after the royal family promised to call off the bloody crackdown. King Hamad is under intense pressure from the US to refrain from further bloodshed, but this softly-softly policy contains its own risks. While the centrist Shia party al-Wefaq wants peaceful reform, the more radical Haq movement is less easy to control.

Exiled Haq leader Hassan Meshaima, wanted for alleged sedition, has announced plans to return to Bahrain next week. It is unclear whether he has a green light from authorities hoping to defuse the crisis, or whether he is throwing down the gauntlet in a move with echoes of Ayatollah Khomeini’s return to Iran thirty years ago. "If he is detained on arrival, this is likely to galvanise the opposition and increase the risk of a violent widespread uprising, " said Exclusive Analysis, which sees a one third chance that the 200-year old monarchy will be overthrown.

Gary Sick, a former White House adviser on the Mid-East, said it is "too late for dialogue" after the killing of 10 people, deemed a massacre by Shi’ite clerics. He said the Saudis are "terrified" of contagion and are determined the line drawn in Bahrain before protests spread through the Gulf. "There does not seem to be any happy ending to this story," he said.

Iran is clearly hoping to bring Bahrain into its orbit. An aide to supreme leader Ali Khamenei called three years ago for Bahrain to be absorbed as Iran’s 14th province. Manama has repeatedly accused Tehran of inciting revolt.

However, the immediate concern is that Bahrain’s troubles will either cause Saudi Arabia to step in directly, or serve as model for revolt in the kingdom’s Eastern Province nearby. This region also has a restless Shi’ite majority, and holds a fifth of the world’s oil reserves. There have been low-level clashes been Saudi security and Shi’ite activists in the province over the years, though Riyadh has made efforts to address grievances. A small protest this week in Awwamiya was handled with kid gloves. Three Shi’ite prisoners were released as a goodwill gesture. However, Saudi dissidents are calling for a much bigger 'Day of Wrath’ on March 13 to press for political freedoms.

Exclusive Analysis said there is a 25pc chance that the Saudi Kingdom will disintegrate, perhaps into three states. "We don’t think it is likely, but it will have a very big impact if it does happen," said Firas Abi Ali, the group’s Mid-East strategist. "The threat to Saudi Arabia is if they have both a Shi’ite uprising and a Hejazi uprising at the same time on the other side of the country. The Saudi royal family depends on Sunni clerics for its own legitimacy. It cannot easily meet the demands of Shi’ite protesters, and is likely to oppose any move by Bahrain to do a deal in order to avoid setting a precedent," he said........

ORAC:

I suspect your sources are wrong and have not factored in:

• The fact that over 10% of Saudis are unemployed.
• Nearly 45% of Saudis under 25 of, working age, are unemployed.
• The Kingdom is ruled by a bunch of old farts who have lost touch with reality; that is, when they are not in their expensive hospital beds in the USA.
• The Kingdom is rife with corruption.
• The Iranian meddling with the Shias.
• That 50% of the population is disenfranchised - totally.
• The huge divesion between the haves and have nots.
• The fact that the Kingdom is, essentially, an oligarchal monarchy.
• That GDP per capita has dropped year by year for, what, the last 15 years.

I used to think that it might last 10 years before the system imploded. I have revised my estimates downward.

It will happen unless the current regime changes things. The only question is when.

I've recommended this book before, but in 1994, the author pretty well predicted what we're seeing today. More worringly, he included Pakistan (along with all the small Gulf States) as a state that will collapse into anarchy in his predictions. I'd highly recommend this book to anyone living or looking like being asked to fight in the area.

It's all going to get terribly messy.

We need to keep well clear, though I see Cameron's recent visit to Egypt included representatives from defence companies.

They won't want a peaceful resolution.

ORAC may I just make a minor comment on your opening post?
The recently published census for Bahrain gave a total population of approx 1.1 million. Of this figure more than 50% are expats, the majority being from South Asia doing all the manual work.
The reporting of last week's events here has been rightly criticized for gross innaccuracy. BBC, Sky, CNN, & Jazeera made it seem a dangerous place. I can truthfully say that nothing in the past two weeks has prevented my going about my life in the normal way, with the exception of a certain amount of traffic chaos (not unheard of in this part of the world).
The local press works fairly well within it's limitaions. Pro government activities will fill the first three pages, and anti government the next couple. Numbers given for those attending demos should be treated with some scepticism.
The last time I drove past Pearl roundabout - which never could be described as a central Manama square - the atmosphere was more carnival than riot.
i am not qualified to comment on wider political aspects, but there has been much more anti-social activity in the past - tyre burning in the streets etc.
Ray

There used to be a regular unclass lecture to the studes at Chicksands by an American analyst named Tim Carr, who basically surmised that if (more likely when IMHO) Saudi collapsed, the west would have no options but to deploy forces to secure the oil heads.

Am I the only one fearing the current situation developing into something cataclysmic for our way of life?

SK, I wonder if that scenario was wargamed as part of SDSR? A bit towards the extreme end of the spectrum, perhaps, but not impossible & therefore still a scenario worth considering.

I'd like to think so Andy, but given the current lack of foresight at ministerial level, I doubt it.

Total War: 2006 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Just remembered reading this a few years back and a lot of it seems strangely prescient. Imagine a unified middle-east (a caliphate if you will) aligned against the west.

Or, how about a free Middle East, no longer governed by corrupt dictators or medieval monarchic dynasties supported by the West, but free independent democracies who bow to the will of the people?

Why would they be aligned against the West?

And I'm sure regional players like um, Iran, would sit by and let that fluffy liberal utopia unfold Pr00ne. Particularly in majority shia countries. :rolleyes:

SmilingKnifed,

What makes you think that this process won't spread to include the likes of Iran and Saudi Arabia?

I'd be very happy to see that (in Iran at least) but the leadership of both are watching and learning.

BBC News - Saudi king offers benefits as he returns from treatment

That said, even a moderate Saudi government would be unable to maintain the required oil output to feed our addiction, particularly during a transition of power.

I agree with you in hoping for the best. Sadly, I fear the worst.

History has shown that Religion and politics do not mix.
Fourteen hundred years into Christianity came the Reformation coupled with the Spanish Inquisition / Counter Reformation. What follow was one of the biggest bloodbaths in history.
Islam has now come to the same crossroads. For Catholic / Protestant, read Shia / Sunni.
Unfortunately with modern technology and weapons, we are all going to be invited to this party. Like it or not.

Within the next few years the world will welcome the balanced stability of the USA v Soviet Union.

And what do our Conservative government do? At the time of maximum threat and danger they reduce our Armed forces to the weakest level in nearly a century.
Rant over.

Whatever you may think about the Saudi regime at least they understand the Shia threat and they have not ducked their responsibility to fund their forces adequately to deal with it.

Their only major problems are quality and training of personnel but at least they still have the quantity required unlike us.

soddim,


Not very reassuring when you take into account how oppressive a regime it is and how much funding and support for SO many extremist groups in the region come from the place. Bin Laden is after all a Saudi...

And his post-Afghanistan operations with MAK/AQ were brought about through outrage at western soldiers setting foot in the land of the two mosques during GW1. What would be the response if we had to deploy there again to secure the oilfields?

Indeed. I remember from when I lived across the causeway that demonstrations have always been alive and well in Manama--kind of reminded me of France, except in Manama they're a lot more civilised. Our employer used to get all shirty if they found out about us joining in :E

SmilingKnifed,

They are not OUR oilfields so if we did deploy there to 'secure' them folk would have a perfect right to get a bit shirty. This is after all the main reason we have bombs on the streets in London, we invaded other peoples countries and it's not very popular or nice. So best we stop doing it then.

If you have a solution as to how, without western civilisation as we know it, collapsing, Pr00ne, then I'm all ears.

pr00ne, re post 13, you're quite right. However, we are now militarily too weak to do anything effective in the region and the reality of life is that we need their oil. On that basis we must be pleased that they maintain military forces to defend themselves with - we don't.